This Weekend in College Football: Week 10

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Brigham Young @ Utah (“Holy War”; ABC): This has to be the most anticipated edition of this rivalry… ever, so naturally it’s kicking off at 10am local time. Good job, ESPN! As for the actual game, I think the Utes are a bit better, but expect to be one of the most physical games of the day.
  • California-Los Angeles @ Minnesota (FOX): The Gophers could certainly do the thing here (UCLA has a pretty big “ain’t played nobody” problem), and it’s on the road with an early game (think “body clocks”). That said, I still like the Bruins.
  • Texas @ Missouri (ESPN): I’m back to not really believing in Mizzou, and with the SEC being such a mud pit of a conference, it’ll make sense for the Horns to find their footing again and win.
  • Clemson @ Syracuse (ESPN2): The Orange (as in, Syracuse) are on a nice run right now, with narrow wins over North Carolina and SMU. This could bit an inflection point for the Tigers, where 9-3 is probably good for Dabo and 8-4 not so much. I think they’ll figure it out.
  • Iowa State @ Baylor (FS1): Getting a win immediately after firing their coach feels like a bit of a dead cat (bear?) bounce for Baylor, even if it was a pretty emphatic 41-9 drubbing of UCF. I’ll take the Cylcones here.
  • Tulsa @ Tulane (ESPNU): It’s been a weird season for both of these teams, but Tulane has mostly lost to anyone with a pulsa, and Tulsa’s got a pulse this year.
  • Florida State @ Boston College (ACCN): Speaking of dead cat bounces, FSU should win this game going away regardless, but still.
  • North Carolina @ Connecticut (CBSS): UConn is fun this year, but they’re not winning this game.

12:30:

  • Duke @ North Carolina State (The CW): IT HAPPENED! And I called it! Yes, that’s right, the week after BC beat us 49-27 and racked up 399 yards rushing, Duke thumped them 47-2 (the two game on a blocked PAT return) and only allowed 78 yards rushing. Naturally, of course, one of Duke’s two losses this season was… to us! Anyway, they’ll be fine here against a listless NC State team.
  • Maryland @ Purdue (BTN): You’ve gotta get this one, Boilermakers.

12:45: Arkansas @ Auburn (SEC): Speaking of random stuff happening, how have the Tigers followed up their monumental upset of Georgia? How about a 38-17 loss to LSU and a 45-15 loss to Mississippi? Yeah, oof. That said, the schedule softens up a bit there and next week against Miss State. (And they could well have a chance to go 3-0 against Bulldogs this season if they beat Miss State and SEC-Socon Challenge foe Samford.) I like their chances here, too.

1:00:

  • Oklahoma State @ Kansas State (TNT): The Pokes are definitely a “score a lot and hold on for dear life” sorta team, but they’ll probably be able to swamp to the Cats.
  • Old Dominion @ Coastal Carolina (ESPN+)

2:30: Georgia State @ Appalachian State (ESPN+)

3:00:

  • Texas A&M @ South Carolina (ESPN): Is South Carolina… good? They managed to dodge a letdown after upsetting Tennessee by putting up 45(!) on Oklahoma, and they have a chance to get bowl eligible against a hapless A&M. I suspect they’ll be aiming a lot higher than that after this.
  • Delaware @ Kennesaw State (ESPN+)
  • Louisiana-Monroe @ Arkansas State (ESPN+)

3:30:

  • Alabama @ Louisiana State (ABC): I have a LSU as a favorite on paper here, but it’s worth noting they’ve lost to the two best teams they’ve played. Does Lane have it figured out here?
  • Oregon @ Ohio State (CBS): I just did bowl predictions, so I can tell you that Ohio State’s win over Indiana gives them a crucial tiebreaker and the inside track to win the Big Ten. So, yeah, the Buckeyes aren’t dead yet. Oregon may’ve figured some things out against Northwestern last week, but it’ll be a little bit different on the road in the Shoe. I’m taking the Bucks.
  • Cincinnati @ Houston (FOX): The burst of competence that got the Bearcats past Texas Tech may’ve been a mirage. Houston will be more than happy to continue proving the point.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Washington (FS1): I’m actually taking UDub here. It’s been very uneven in Big Ten play for Penn State, add in a trip west and a Huskies team that’s playing well, I don’t see it going well for the Nittany Lions.
  • Merrimack @ Wake Forest (ACCN)
  • Temple @ Navy (CBSS):
  • Marshall @ Georgia Southern (ESPN+)
  • Charlotte @ Alabama-Birmingham (ESPN+)
  • Western Kentucky @ Middle Tennessee State (ESPN+)

3:45: Central Florida @ Kansas (ESPN2): Speaking of post big upset let downs, UCF got demolished by a coach-less Baylor last week. It’s been a struggle for Kansas this season, but this looks like a good opportunity at home for the Jayhawks.

4:00:

  • Rice @ North Texas (ESPNU): Mean Green all the way here.
  • Northern Illinois @ San Jose State (NBCBA/MWN)
  • Louisiana Tech @ Troy (ESPN+)
  • Missouri State @ Florida International (ESPN+)

4:15:

  • Rutgers @ Wisconsin (BTN): Wisky all the way here.
  • Vanderbilt @ Mississippi State (SEC): It’s a lost season for both these teams, but I’m leaning Miss STate.

5:00: South Alabama @ Louisiana (ESPN+)

6:00: Boise State @ Colorado State (USA): Colorado State is playing better on defense, mostly because it’d be hard for them to play worse. It won’t matter here.

6:15: Kentucky @ Tennessee (ESPN): While no one was looking, Kentucky got to 7-1 and has been making real hay in the second tier of the SEC. Add in Tennessee still being relevant, and you have perhaps the most important edition of this rivalry ever? I certainly didn’t see that coming. At any rate, Kentucky’s friskiness could well carry the day here. This is one to watch.

7:00: Sam Houston State @ Jacksonville State (CBSS): Jax State all the way here.

7:30:

  • Georgia @ Mississippi (ABC): A Rebel win here would throw the SEC into chaos, but unfortunately I have a feeling Georgia will be fine here.
  • Air Force @ Army (CBS): Air Force has a chance to take the Commaner-in-Chief’s trophy for the first time since 2022, and they’re slightly favored. But this will be a fun one to watch, with CBS at Mitchie Stadium in prime time.
  • Iowa @ Northwestern (FOX): It’s been a fun season for Northwestern, which means it’s time for Iowa to come and do what they do best: just shut all the nonsense down.
  • Miami @ Notre Dame (NBC): Game of the Century material here, though unfortunately the best player in the game won’t play. Malachi Toney injured his ankle in practice, which may be fatal for Miami’s chances. I suspect this will turn into a signature win for the Irish, even if there’s an asterisk,
  • Colorado @ Arizona State (ESPN2): Arizona State figures to likely bring the Deion era to an end.
  • Louisville @ Georgia Tech (ACCN): There’s nothing left to be said at this point. We effectively don’t have a defense, and the offense isn’t good enough to at least make games a shootout. 2-10 is the most likely possibility.
  • Michigan State @ Michigan (Peacock/NBCSN): This is one of those rivalries where weird stuff does happen. That said, while the Wolverines are a disaster on offense, but their defense is legit. This could end 3-0, Michigan.

7:45: Oklahoma @ Florida (SEC): Welcome back to the SEC mudpit, where maybe Florida scores enough to eek out a win, or Oklahoma sits on them and they win 15-9 or something. This is a coin flip to me.

8:00: Liberty @ New Mexico State (ESPNU): It’s been a tough week for the folks at Liberty. I would love if the Aggies could really give them the dagger, but alas.

9:30:

  • West Virginia @ Texas Tech (ESPN): Texas Tech should win this game, WVU remains squarely.
  • Fresno State @ Utah State (USA): Fresno all the way here.
  • Hawaii @ Texas-El Paso (FS1): Neither of these teams is very good, but UTEP is just bad bad.

10:30:

  • Texas State @ Oregon State (The CW): I like the Beavers here.
  • Wyoming @ Nevada-Las Vegas (CBSS): UNLV’s had a weird couple of weeks. They lost to Air Force, which was unexpected but reasonable. But, uh, they struggled with Northern Illinois, a team that is in the running for “worst team in FBS” this season. I still think they should beat Wyoming, but they’re definitely looking wobbly.

 

Bowl Predictions 2026: Week 1

Hey folks, welcome to… probably the last edition ever of bowl predictions? I’ve been at this since 1999. (“all 23 Division I-A bowls”, how quaint!) The explosion of bowl games made this harder, but at least until the last few years there were rules. It’s been harder, but at least I still had some things to go on. However, the expansion of the playoff to 24 teams next year will drastically re-shape the bowl landscape.

To give you an idea, these are the teams I essentially had on my playoff bubble based on my predictions for the rest of the season:

  • Alabama
  • Mississippi
  • Houston
  • Wake Forest
  • Iowa
  • New Mexico

Suffice it to say, I didn’t really bother trying to figure out the other 8 teams to get to 24. This expansion will kill off the current top tier of bowl games. I doubt conference tie-ins will be a thing after this. The bowls are trying to save themselves, but it’s still unclear for what. I suspect the ESPN Events bowls, especially ones that already mostly or only invite G6 teams, will continue. I guess we can see what that’s going to look like when we get there next offseason,

As far as this season goes, this weekend will go a long way toward setting the final top 12. More on that in the next post. For now, here’s the 2026 predictions. I had to use 4 5-7 teams (indicated by the “^^”).

This Weekend in College Football: Week 9

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Notre Dame vs. Navy (@Foxborough, MA; ABC): While this rivalry is somewhat defined by Navy’s history of futility in it, it’s definitely preferable that they at least have a chance. They do not have a chance here.
  • Wisconsin @ Iowa (FOX): The low-scoring gods went against Iowa last week, so I don’t think it’ll happen two weeks in a row.
  • Arizona @ Texas Tech (ESPN): Arizona is better than one might think, and this is not last year’s Texas Tech that ran roughshod over the Big 12. Zona definitely has a chance here, this should be a good watch. I think the Red Raiders will hold on, though.
  • Southern Methodist @ Syracuse (ESPN2): SMU looks like the 2nd, or at least 3rd, best team in the ACC. Syracuse, not so much.
  • Illinois @ Maryland (FS1): It’s Illinois all the way here.
  • Boston College @ Duke (The CW): For maximum confusion, I’m certain that Duke (who lost to us) will beat BC here (who we just allowed 400 yards rushing to).
  • Alabama-Birmingham @ South Florida (ESPNU): USF only has two losses, but they’re also to the only teams they’ve really played with a pulse. UAB has a pulse.
  • California @ North Carolina State (ACCN): It was time for Dave Doeren, who was the longest tenured coach in the ACC. Cal, meanwhile, is wondering if they can get a refund on Tosh Lupoi, whose limitations as a coach have quickly come to roost. This is definitely a bad feelings bowl. I’m guessing it’ll be NC State here.
  • Bowling Green @ Western Michigan (CBSS): WMU will be fine here.

12:30: Michigan @ Rutgers (BTN): Is it possible for negative points to be scored in a game, somehow? Michigan has an all-time defense and, in a very different sense, an all-time offense. Rutgers isn’t particularly good at anything, which means they probably won’t score. We have a real shot at 0-0 here. Michigan is better on paper, so who knows, maybe they’ll get a pick 6 or something.

12:45: Auburn @ Mississippi (SEC): Auburn’s actual level feels way more the 38-18 loss to LSU than the 27-24 win over Georgia, which doesn’t bode well for this visit to Oxford.

1:00: Marshall @ Old Dominion (ESPN+)

2:00:

  • Kansas State @ Colorado (TNT): Speaking of “it’s time” coaches, yeah, the Deion thing seems pretty over.
  • Coastal Carolina @ Georgia State (ESPN+)

3:00: Connecticut @ Air Force (MWN)

3:15: Stanford @ Louisville (ACCN): Stanford beat NC State, who beat Louisville. I expect the transitive property to be proven wrong once again here.

3:30:

  • Florida vs. Georgia (“The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” @ Atlanta, GA; ABC): This year and next year, the cocktail party will still be a neutral site game, just not in Jacksonville. This one is likely to be indoors (I doubt the roof will be open). Similar to Auburn, I don’t think Florida is as good as their win over Texas or as bad as their loss to Mizzou, but either level is below Georgia’s.
  • Minnesota @ Indiana (CBS): The warning signs are screaming for the Hoosiers after the tight loss to Ohio State and the narrow win over Michigan. While this Minnesota team is punchy, Indiana will probably feel a lot more comfortable on this ball in this one.
  • Arizona State @ Brigham Young (FOX): As long as BYU doesn’t get caught looking ahead to the Holy War next week, they’ll be fine here.
  • Colorado State @ Utah State (USA): Neither of these teams is especially good, but outside of last week’s win against San Diego State, Colorado State hasn’t shown much this season. I’ll take the Aggies.
  • Kansas @ Texas Christian (FS1): Dave Aranda (now the former Baylor coach) might be watching this one and thinking about the two straight losses to these teams that got him fired. And yeah, both these teams are at the bottom of the Big 12, there’s not much to go one. Kansas just seems a little worse though.
  • Florida International @ Liberty (CBSS): It brings me no pleasure to report that Liberty is apparently good again.
  • Northwestern @ Oregon (NBCSN/Peacock): Oregon is cooked (as the kids say) after losing 21-10 to Illinois last week. Chip Kelly rolling into Eugene to really pile the dirt on while running college football’s most… unique offense will really be something to behold.
  • Texas-El Paso @ North Dakota State (MWN)
  • Southern Mississippi @ Louisiana-Monroe (ESPN+)

3:45:

  • Utah @ Cincinnati (ESPN): Cincinnati is definitely more dangerous than Arizona State, but the Utes should also be fine as long as they aren’t looking ahead to next week.
  • Virginia @ Wake Forest (ESPN2): Remember when UVA beat NC State 34-8 in Week 0? Yeah, that might well be the overreaction of the season, as the bottom fell out of the Wolfpack and the Cavs sport losses to West Virginia, Duke, and a blowout loss to Florida State. Wake, meanwhile, shares the “best team in the ACC that isn’t Miami” tier. Their last three ACC games feature the following score lines: 57-3, 38-14, and 41-7. Expect something similar here.

4:00: New Mexico @ San Jose State (NBCBA/MWN)

4:15:

  • Purdue @ Pennsylvania State (BTN): What’s going on at Penn State? I’m sure Matt Campbell is wondering the same thing. With a loss here, which I feel pretty good about, it figures to from bad to worse in Campbell’s year 1.
  • Nevada @ California-Los Angeles (BTN): Folks, there’s a real chance UCLA is going to win out. Nevada certainly won’t be able to stop them,
  • South Carolina @ Oklahoma (SEC): LaNorris Sellers has been the Gamecocks’ talisman for a few years now, and in the last two games he’s made a difference. Meanwhile, Oklahoma another big time power program that just appears lost on offense. I like the Gamecocks to put up enough such that the Sooners can’t catch them, so let’s say… 21-0.

6:30: Appalachian State @ Georgia Southern (“Modern Day Hate”; ESPN+)

7:00:

  • Oklahoma State @ Iowa State (FOX): The Cyclones are 1-4 against teams with a winning record so far. I expect it to be 1-5 after this.
  • Clemson @ Florida State (ACCN): Well, it’s time for the Bad Vibes Game of the Week (yes, somehow worse than Michigan-Rutgers). But that said, there’s signs of life in Tallahassee, at least. The trick will be maintaining them a week after failing in their upset of one of their major rivals. But I still like them better than I do Clemson, which was last seen faceplanting at home against Virginia Tech.
  • Washington State @ San Diego State (CBSS): It brings me no pleasure to report that Wazzu straight up stinks.

7:30:

  • Miami @ North Carolina (ABC): Is UNC better than last year? Yes. Are they good? Well, not enough to overcome Miami, I’m pretty sure.
  • Ohio State @ Southern California (NBC): The Buckeyes are Sayin-less for the rest of the season, but USC has a way of making many quarterbacks look good. I think the Bucks will be fine here.
  • Mississippi State @ Texas (ESPN): Unfortunately, with Kamario Taylor out of the season, it appears the magic has run out for Miss State.
  • Georgia Tech @ Pittsburgh (ESPN2): The defensive injuries are a thing, yes, but yet again we built a first half lead and completely melted down in the second. It’s just impossible to believe that this defense is capable of stopping anyone.

7:45: Missouri @ Arkansas (“Battle Line Rivalry”; SEC): Naturally, I finally believed in Mizzou and they went and lost 31-3 to Mississippi. Shows what I know. They should be fine here though.

8:00:

  • Army @ Memphis (ESPNU): I think Army has the goods this year, though Memphis is definitely their stiffest remaining challenge.
  • Washington @ Nebraska (BTN): These teams are defying the narrative a bit. Nebraska was supposed to be back, finally, but has now lost two in a row, the latter being to an Oregon team that has quarterback issues. UDub looked terrible, to the point where Jedd Fisch’s seat was getting warm, and then they beat Purdue. So that’s all to say… who knows. Thank goodness I don’t actually bet on this stuff. I’ll take the Huskers.

10:00: Texas State @ Boise State (The CW): Boise all the way here.

10:30: Northern Illinois @ Nevada-Las Vegas (CBSS): Rebels all the way here.

11:00: Oregon State @ Fresno State (USA): Beavers all the way here. (This will probably be the most fun of these last three, though.)

This Weekend in College Football: Week 8

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Louisiana State @ Auburn (ABC): Tigers! Okay just kidding, but I am pretty confused about this one. Is LSU that bad? Is Auburn that good? Maybe I should stick to Tigers, but I’ll take the Plainsmen at home.
  • Indiana @ Michigan (FOX): Indiana doesn’t have that gear this year, but they won’t need it here.
  • Pittsburgh @ Miami (ESPN): If there ever were a time for the Pitt Superweapon thing to happen, would it make more or less sense for it happen with their third string QB? I’m not sure. But one cannot predict the Superweapon, at any rate. So I’ll take the Canes.
  • West Virginia @ Texas Christian (ESPN2): The Neers have emerged not as the best college football team, not the worst college football team, but certainly the most college football team. They’re not great but they’re fun to watch. Will that get them a win in Fort Worth? Uh, ask me later. I’ll take the Frogs for now.
  • Texas Tech @ Cincinnati (FS1): Texas Tech is also not as good as anyone involved would like, but that’ll be enough to get them past Cincy.
  • California @ Southern Methodist (The CW): Cal is a disaster right now, thus will be Ponies all the way.
  • Rice @ Florida Atlantic (ESPNU): Rice is sorta like West Virginia, except they’re bad. Owls all the way.
  • Western Michigan @ Toledo (CBSS): This will be one of the most consequential games in the MAC this season, and yet I just keep thinking “man Toledo always kinda blows it”, so yeah, I like the Broncos.
  • Rutgers @ Northwestern (Peacock/NBCSN): Northwestern is “fun” and also “good”? Somehow, yes. Turns out Chip Kelly can still call an offense.

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This Weekend in College Football: Week 7

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Florida @ Texas (ABC): Florida’s initially promising start seems to have crashed at the altar of film and injuries. Obviously Texas fans are crestfallen at losing to Oklahoma, but they’ll be fine.
  • Ohio State @ Indiana (FOX): The game of the day and a rematch of last year’s B1G Championship, that obviously went Indiana’s way last year. But this year’s Indiana a little worse than last year’s, and Ohio State is a little better. I think the Bucks get it done this time.
  • Mississippi State @ Louisiana State (ESPN): Without Kamario Taylor, I’m not sure how the Bulldogs prevail down in Baton Rouge.
  • Pittsburgh @ Boston College (ESPN2): BC remains one of the worse teams in the Power 4, the Panthers should be able to get this one done.
  • Virginia @ Southern Methodist (The CW): Virginia has fallen off a bit of a cliff after a good start to the season, the Ponies should be good here.
  • Cincinnati @ West Virginia (TNT): Is WVU good? Not especially. Are they fun? Heck yeah, and I still don’t know what to make of Cincy, so let’s go with the Neers.
  • Kansas @ Kansas State (“Sunflower Showdown”; FS1): KU’s a little snakebit this season, but it’s crazy how long it’s been since the Jayhawks won this game (2008!). Will this be their year? I don’t think so, but both of these teams are kind of meh, so we’ll see.
  • Georgia State @ James Madison (ESPNU): G-State is better this year, but JMU just seems inevitable.
  • Charleston Southern @ Clemson (ACCN)
  • Florida Atlantic @ Army (CBSS):
  • Northwestern @ Michigan State (Peacock/NBCSN):
  • Ball State @ Bowling Green (ESPN+)

12:30: Rutgers @ Maryland (BTN): This sure is a game that’s happening. Will either team keep their coach through this season? I think the Terps can do this, but the vibes here are so, so bad.

1:00:

  • The Citadel @ Texas A&M (SEC+)
  • Charlotte @ Temple (ESPN+)
  • Massachusetts @ Buffalo (ESPN+)

1:30: Western Michigan @ Central Michigan (ESPN+)

3:30:

  • Alabama @ Tennessee (“Third Saturday in October”; ABC): Unfortunately, Bama returned.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Michigan (CBS): Speaking of terrible vibes, eeesh. Michigan is so bad offensively that I think it’s just up to Penn State to score, like, any points despite their own limitations.
  • Arizona State @ Texas Tech (FOX): Red Raiders roll.
  • Auburn @ Georgia (“The Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry”; ESPN): It’s great when the Tigers are capable of makijg a game of this. This isn’t one of those Auburn teams.
  • North Carolina @ Duke (ESPN2): Signs of life at UNC? At least on defense? Obviously I think Duke was a tad overrated last week, but they can move the ball even against teams that aren’t us, so I still like them here.
  • Northern Illinois @ Wyoming (The CW): A rough first year in the Mountain West figures to continue for the Huskies.
  • Missouri @ Mississippi (SEC): I still refuse to believe Mizzou is good, but I guess they’ll just keep winning for now?
  • Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech (“Techmo Bowl”; ACCN): Our defense still sucks, and we still have a ton of injuries. I don’t have a ton of optimism here. And besides, no matter the result, we’re the real Tech.
  • Nevada-Las Vegas @ Air Force (CBSS): I think UNLV rolls here.
  • Toledo @ Eastern Michigan (ESPN+)
  • Akron @ Miami (ESPN+)

4:30: Tulsa @ Rice (ESPN+)

5:00: Troy @ Louisiana (ESPN+)

6:00: Washington State @ Oregon State (USA): Oregon State is back, and Wazzu is unback. Beavs all the way here.

7:00:

  • Florida State @ Miami (ESPN): There was a time when this game was appointment television. This is not the case these days, and the Canes will absolutely nuke them.
  • Arkansas @ Vanderbilt (ESPN2):  Vandy is not good this year, but are they not good enough to lose to Arkansas? TBD, but I guess I’ll take the Dores?
  • Texas Christian @ Baylor (“The Revivalry”; FS1): Baylor?
  • Nevada @ North Dakota State (CBSS): The Bison took their first loss to a stingy UNLV, but the folks up in Reno are not a talented, so they should be good.
  • Arkansas State @ Southern Mississippi (ESPN+)
  • Kent State @ South Florida (ESPN+)

7:30:

  • Notre Dame @ Brigham Young (ABC): The other game of the day; it’s actually kinda hard to see the Irish losing here, but this should be fun regardless.
  • Oklahoma State @ Houston (FOX):. Oh and pay attention to this as well. After the hiccup against Tulsa the Pokes have looked good. This is a tossup. I’ll pick the Cougs.
  • Wisconsin @ California-Los Angeles (NBC): I need to LIGHTNING ROUND the rest of this. Bruins!
  • Kentucky @ Oklahoma (SEC): Cayuts!
  • Louisville @ Syracuse (ACCN): Cards!
  • Elon @ Stanford (ACCNX)

8:00:

  • Navy @ Texas-San Antonio (ESPNU): Road Runners!
  • Louisiana Tech @ Louisiana-Monroe (ESPN+)

9:00: San Jose State @ Texas-El Paso (MWN)

10:00: Ohio @ Sacramento State (ESPN+)

10:15: Utah @ Colorado (“Rumble in the Rockies”; ESPN): Utes!

10:30:

  • Wake Forest @ California (ESPN2): Wake!
  • New Mexico @ Hawaii (FS1): Lobos!
  • Fresno State @ San Diego State (CBSS): Bulldogs!

11:00: Nebraska @ Oregon (FOX): Huskers?