The final results are… finally here! After a dreadful start, I eventually recovered to equal last year’s record of 27-19. This also improved my lifetime record to 516-420, an overall 55% win rate. Hey, it’s better than a coin flip, at least.
We’re gradually getting the cobwebs out. Look for the out-of-conference preview soon. The season starts with Week 0 on August 29th. See you then!
And here we are, it’s finally over. There’ll be an epilogue post to see how I did, but for now let’s enjoy college football one last time.
As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.
Monday, January 19
7:30: Miami vs. Indiana (College Football Playoff Championship @ Miami Gardens, FL; ESPN): So, it’s not like the Canes don’t have a chance. After all, the defense is elite, and Bad Carson Beck hasn’t shown up in the playoffs yet. But… Indiana’s defense is also elite (while they lack Miami’s star power, there’s no weak unit). It may be fair to say that Beck hasn’t seen anything like what the Hoosiers are going to do. That’s true for Miami versus Fernando Mendoza and company as well, but there’s a reason why Mendoza has rapidly become the best quarterback in the country (and has a Heisman, to boot). He’s only thrown 6 picks to Beck’s 11. There’s a blueprint for the Canes, and that’s to lean on the defense again, get some big stops on Indiana’s offense, limit possessions and keep it close. The problem is… I don’t think Indiana cares about any of that. There’s a reason why saying something like “this is probably the best team since 2019 LSU” isn’t an insane statement. Ultimately, I think we’ll have our first new national champion in 30 years.
SP+ line: Indiana by 11.1
Vegas line: Indiana by 7.5
Watchability tier: IV
Previous meetings: These teams first met in 1963, a 28-22 Oregon win. A year later they faced off again, and the Ducks won again, 29-21. A one-off in 2004 saw a 30-24 Hoosier win. And, of course, they met back in October in a classic, with the Hoosiers rallying to win 30-20 in Eugene and preserving their perfect season. Currently the teams are 2-2 all-time.
Last bowl game: The Canes began their playoff journey in College Station back in the first round, limiting Texas A&M and making just enough big plays to win 10-3. Back on New Year’s Eve, they limited Ohio State enough in the first half and held on to win 24-14. They truly held on for dear life to take down Mississippi 31-27 in the semis. The Hoosiers, well, you know by now that they’re a death machine. They dismantled Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl, and then in the semis they never trailed and demolished Oregon 56-22 in a rematch.
Announcers: Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit, Holly Rowe, and Molly McGrath
As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.
Thursday, January 8
7:30: Mississippi vs. Miami (Fiesta Bowl @ Glendale, AZ; ESPN): Both of these games will be interesting, but in somewhat different ways. This is the game with a lot more uncertainty, to me. At some point, the coaching staff chaos has to affect Mississippi, right? Miami defensive line is a nightmare for opposing offenses, but they lost two games! The Canes still feel more consistent to me despite that, and they’ve already surprised two teams with good-to-elite offenses with their line play. But they haven’t done it with against a QB with Trinidad Chambliss’s escapability. I’m leaning Canes here, but this one should be close and fun.
SP+ line: Miami by 2.5
Vegas line: Miss by 2.9
Watchability tier: IV
Previous meetings: Three, and they were all a long time ago. The first was a 14-0 Mississippi win in 1936. The Rebels won again in 1940. In 1951, Miami got their first win in the series, 20-7.
Last bowl game: Mississippi revenged their regular season loss to Georgia and beat them in the Sugar Bowl 39-34. The Canes upset Ohio State 24-14 in the Cotton Bowl.
Announcers: Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit, Holly Rowe, and Laura Rutledge
Friday, January 9
7:30: Indiana vs. Oregon (Peach Bowl @ Atlanta, GA; ESPN): In a playoff full of rematches, here’s another one. While the “it’s hard to beat a team twice” gods have appeared multiple times in this playoff, I feel very good about Indiana here. For starters, this game is at a neutral site and not in Eugene. The main thing though is that Indiana just looks better than everyone else. Their demolition of Alabama in the Rose Bowl was just the announcement. While I don’t think they’ll quite do that again here (Oregon’s defense is for real), I’m not sure anything can stop the Hoosiers on their march to destiny.
SP+ line: Indiana by 3.1
Vegas line: Indiana by 3.5
Watchability tier: IV
Previous meetings: These teams first met in 1963, a 28-22 Oregon win. A year later they faced off again, and the Ducks won again, 29-21. A one-off in 2004 saw a 30-24 Hoosier win. And, of course, they met back in October in a classic, with the Hoosiers rallying to win 30-20 in Eugene and preserving their perfect season. Currently the teams are 2-2 all-time.
Last bowl game: Oregon blanked Texas Tech 23-0 in the Sugar Bowl. Indiana embarassed Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl.
Announcers: Sean McDonough, Greg McElroy, Molly McGrath, and Katie George
I just got the bowl page updated. While I don’t have tracking for my correct vs. incorrect picks yet, it at least has the correct Orange Bowl and shows all of my predictions.
As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.
Thursday, January 1
12:00: Texas Tech (#4) vs. Oregon (#5) (Orange Bowl @ Miami Gardens, FL; ESPN): This is probably the most intriguing of all the playoff matchups. In some ways, you’d probably expect that from the 4 vs. 5 game, but still. The dynamics in play are “new money” versus “even newer money”, as Texas Tech was the most aggressive team in the transfer portal last year, with this the intended result. This will be, by far, the stiffest test the Red Raiders have faced on both sides of the ball. That said, Oregon lost their only game this year when the faced a team of a similar caliber (Indiana), so those challenges also apply to the Ducks. Suffice it to say, this game is pretty much a coin flip, and I’m going to go with Texas Tech.
SP+ line: TTU by 2.5
Vegas line: TTU by 1.5
Watchability tier: IV
Previous meetings: Just three. The first was a 28-13 Oregon win in 1991, and the most recent was… two years ago, a 38-30 Ducks win. Oregon is 3-0 overall.
Last bowl game: TTU has a five season streak, dating to a 34-7 win over Mississippi State in the 2021 Liberty Bowl. Last season they lost 39-26 to Arkansas in the Liberty Bowl. A couple of Saturdays ago, Oregon beat James Madison 51-34 to advance.
Announcers: Joe Tessitore, Jesse Palmer, Katie George, and Stormy Buonantony
4:00: Indiana (#1) vs. Alabama (#9) (Rose Bowl @ Pasadena, CA; ESPN): This game shouldn’t be close. Indiana is clearly the best team in the country, and Bama arguably shouldn’t even be in the playoff. But I have the nagging feeling that somehow, Bama will finally play offense for the first time in two months and finally have a version of Ty Simpson that looks like he’s played quarterback before. It might rain at the Rose Bowl (or, at least, the parade) and that could also equalize things. That said, the Hoosiers get it done on both sides of the ball, and they should be able to handle business. Hopefully.
SP+ line: Hoosiers by 13.1
Vegas line: Hoosiers by 7
Watchability tier: IV
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: Indiana loast 27-17 to Notre Dame in the first round of last season’s playoff. To get here, Bama got revenge on Oklahoma 34-24.
Announcers: Chris Folwer, Kirk Herbstret, Holly Rowe, and Kris Budden
8:00: Georgia (#3) vs. Mississippi (#6) (Sugar Bowl @ New Orleans, LA; ESPN): I think this is where the fun stops for the Rebels, and the real cleanup in the post-Kiffin era truly begins. I suppose the “it’s hard to beat a team twice” gods may intervene here, but overall I don’t see a path forward for Mississippi.
SP+ line: uga by 0.3
Vegas line: uga by 7
Watchability tier: IV
Previous meetings: As is usual with the Mississippi schools and SEC history, there’s probably not as many meetings between these teams as you’d expect. They first met in 1940, a 28-14 Mississippi win. They met just three more times in the 1940’s and just once in the 1950’s. With Georgia Tech and Tulane leaving in 1963 and 1965, they began to play more often in the 10-team SEC, playing every year from 1966 through 2002. Georgia feasted during that time, piling up wins against mostly hapless Rebel teams to a 34-14-1 overall record, including the most recent 43-35 Georgia win in Athens back in October.
Last bowl game: Unfortunately, Georgia owns the longest streak of postseason appearances, dating to a 33-6 win over Wisconsin in the 1997-98 Outback Bowl. Last season in the playoff, Georgia was one of the teams that got the bye and then promptly fell on their face, losing 23-10 in the Sugar Bowl quarterfinal. The Rebels took care of business 41-10 over Tulane in the first round to get here.
Announcers: Sean McDonough, Greg McElroy, Molly McGrath, and Laura Rutledge
Friday, January 2
1:00: Rice vs. Texas State (Armed Forces Bowl @ Fort Worth, TX; ESPN): It’s a bowl game, so anything could happen, but this should be the Bobcats all the way.
SP+ line: TxSt by 14.5
Vegas line: TxSt by 11.5
Watchability tier: I
Previous meetings: Just one, at least with teams being considered “top” level teams: a 45-21 Texas State win in the 2023 First Responder Bowl.
Last bowl game: This is Rice’s first postseason appearance since the 2023 First Responder Bowl, a 45-21 loss to Texas State. For Texas state, they’re presumably happy to playing somewhere else in the Metroplex after also beat North Texas in last season’s First Responder Bowl, 30-28.
Announcers: Lowell Galindo, Aaron Murray, and Lauren Sisler
4:30: Navy vs. Cincinnati (Liberty Bowl @ Memphis, TN; ESPN): This one could be fun. Cincy comes in off a solid-but-not-great season, and any game involving the service academies can be interesting. I like Cincy here but keep an eye on it.
SP+ line: Cincy by 2
Vegas line: Navy by 6.5
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: These teams met for the first time in 1956, a 13-7 Navy win. Since then, they played somewhat regularly as members of the American from 2017-2022, a period dominated by Cincy. Overall the Bearcats have a 3-2 record.
Last bowl game: Last season, Navy beat Oklahoma 21-20 in the Armed Forces Bowl. For Cincinnati, this is their first postseason appearance since a 24-7 win over Louisville in the 2022 Fenway Bowl.
Announcers: TV: Mike Monaco, Kirk Morrison, and Dawn Davenport
8:00: Southern Methodist vs. Arizona (Holiday Bowl @ San Diego, CA; FOX): This game should be relatively even. SMU, of course, was last seen suffering a brutal loss in Berkeley. Arizona had a relatively good year and is coming off a Territorial Cup win. I’ve got SMU, but I expect it to be close.
SP+ line: Zona by 0.3
Vegas line: Zona by 2.5
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: Just twice, and considering these are one-off regular season games, it’s kind of surprising. The first was a 29-7 SMU win in 1938, and the other was a 28-6 Arizona win in 1985.
Last bowl game: SMU would have a seven game bowl streak dating to the 2019 Boca Raton bowl, but skipped 2020 and the 2021 Fenway Bowl was canceled. Last season they lost 38-10 to Penn State in the opening round of the playoff. This is Arizona’s first bowl game since a 38-24 win over Oklahoma in the 2023 Alamo Bowl.
Announcers: Gus Johnson and Joel Klatt
8:00: Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State (Mayo Bowl @ Charlotte, NC; ESPN): While I cover the playoff games like bowl games, this is last true exhibition on this list. And maybe appropriately, this game doesn’t have a lot of juice. Wake Forest is… Wake Forest, and Miss State is a 5-7 SEC team in a bowl season that’s seen the non-elite tiers of the SEC really get exposed so far. I like Wake in this one, but honest I just hope it’s a decent game.
SP+ line: Wake by 0.6
Vegas line: MissSt by 3.5
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: Just once, a 23-17 Miss State win in the 2011 Music City Bowl.
Last bowl game: Wake’s last postseason appearance was a 27-17 win over Mizzou in the 2022 Gasparilla Bowl. Similarly, this is the first postseason game for the Bulldogs since a 19-10 win over Illinois in the 2022-23 ReliaQuest Bowl.
Announcers: Anish Shroff, Andre Ware, and Paul Carcaterra
Sunday, January 4
8:00: Wisconsin-River Falls vs. North Central (“Stagg Bowl”; NCAA Division III National Championship Game @ Canton, OH; ESPN)
Monday, January 5
7:30: Illinois State vs. Montana State (NCAA Division I National Championship Game @ Nashville, TN; ESPN)
As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.
Monday, December 29
2:00: Appalachian State vs. Georgia Southern (“Deeper Than Hate”; Birmingham Bowl @ Birmingham, AL; ESPN): Alas, missed another one. And for the record, I missed this one as I had App winning.
SP+ line: App St by 0.9
Vegas line: GSU by 3.5
Watchability tier: I
Previous meetings: These rivals have met plenty of times, but for our purposes we only consider FBS records. So the first FBS meeting between them was in 2014, a 34-14 Southern win. The teams have traded runs, and somewhat obviously, their most recent meeting was back in early November, a 25-23 Southern win. As of right now, the FBS series is tied, 6-6.
Last bowl game: For App, this is their first bowl since the 2023 Cure Bowl, where they beat Miami 13-9 in the Cure Bowl. This is Georgia Southern’s fourth bowl game in a row, dating to the 2022 Camellia Bowl, a 23-1 loss to Buffalo. Last season they lost 31-26 to Sam Houston State in the New Orleans Bowl.
Announcers: Taylor Zarzour, Matt Stinchcomb, and Alyssa Lang
Tuesday, December 30
2:00: Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech (Independence Bowl @ Shreveport, LA; ESPN): Coastal had kind of a bummer of a season, and then has to travel to what should basically be a LaTech home game… not sure that this is going to be a great experience for them.
SP+ line: LaTech by 12.9
Vegas line: LaTech by 8.5
Watchability tier: I
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: This is Coastal’s sixth straight bowl game, dating to the 2020 Cure Bowl, a 37-34 loss to Liberty. Last season they lost 44-15 to UTSA in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. Louisiana Tech lost 27-6 to Army in last year’s edition of this game.
Announcers: Clay Matvick, Chase Daniel, and Harry Lyles Jr.
5:30: Illinois vs. Tennessee (Music City Bowl @ Nashville, TN; ESPN): This is one of those games where you look at everything and figure that the Vols should be favored, but then you remember that a) Illinois isn’t terrible or anything, in fact, they’re kind of good and b) Tennessee doesn’t like going to this bowl at all. With those things combined, I actually have the Illini winning.
SP+ line: Vols by 4.3
Vegas line: Vols by 2.5
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: Illinois beat South Carolina 21-17 in last season’s Citrus Bowl. The Vols have a five game streak dating to the 2021 Music City Bowl, a 48-45 loss to Purdue. Last season, they lost to Ohio State 42-17 in the first round of the playoff.
Announcers: Tom Hart, Jordan Rodgers, and Cole Cubelic
9:00: Southern California vs. Texas Christian (Alamo Bowl @ San Antonio, TX; ESPN): If Lincoln Riley wants to show things have really changed in the vicinity of Heritage Hall, then the Trojans really need to take of business in just about as much of a “taking care of business” as a bowl game can get.
SP+ line: USC by 9.1
Vegas line: USC by 3.5
Watchability tier: III
Previous meetings: These teams have met five times, and none recently. In 1951 USC won 28-26. Some sproadic regular season meetings continued, but the most recent was a 28-19 TCU win in the 1998 Sun Bowl. Overall, TCU holds a 3-2 series lead.
Last bowl game: This is USC’s fourth straight bowl game, dating to a 46-45 loss to Tulane in the 2022-23 Cotton Bowl. TCU beat Louisiana 34-3 in last season’s New Mexico Bowl.
Announcers: Bob Wischusen, Louis Riddick, and Dana Boyle
Wednesday, December 31
12:00: Iowa vs. Vanderbilt (Reliaquest Bowl @ Tampa, FL; ESPN): Diego Pavia has flustered many a defense at this point, so in some ways this is his final boss. I do think giving Iowa and company several weeks to scheme you up only increases the difficulty level, so hopefully the Dores have something clever up their sleeves. This may be required viewing either way.
SP+ line: Vandy by 3.3
Vegas line: Vandy by 5.5
Watchability tier: IV
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: Iowa skipped 2020, but otherwise would’ve had a 13 game bowl streak dating to the 2013-14 Outback Bowl, a 21-14 loss to LSU. Last season they lost 27-24 to Mizzou in the Music City Bowl. Vandy defeated Georgia Tech 35-27 in the Birmingham Bowl.
Announcers: Roy Philpott, Sam Acho, and Taylor Davis
2:00: Duke vs. Arizona State (Sun Bowl @ El Paso, TX; CBS): Congrats on winning the ACC, Duke! You know how you know no one likes how that happened? You get to play in El Paso! I think the most ACC thing possible at this point is for the Sun Devils to blow them out, so that’s what I predicted.
SP+ line: Duke by 0.6
Vegas line: Duke by 2.5
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: Remember the 2014 Sun Bowl? I don’t, but I wrote about it, so let’s take a trip down memory lane. Okay, welcome back. I’m happy to say I correctly predicted the Sun Devils would win so there ya go.
Last bowl game: This is Duke’s fourth straight bowl game, dating to a 30-13 win over UCF in the 2022 Military Bowl. Last season, they lost 52-20 to Mississippi in the Gator Bowl. Last season, Arizona State gave Texas all they had, but lost 39-31 in the playoff quarterfinal Peach Bowl.
Announcers: Brad Nessler and Gary Danielson
3:00: Michigan vs. Texas (Citrus Bowl @ Orlando, FL; ABC): We’re not going to talk about any of the… unpleasantness at Michigan, as there’s plenty of other folks who are much better at that. The main thing here is just… there’s no way the Wolverines win this thing, right? The helmets involved would normally make this is a “IV” on the Watchability scale, but since I’m 90% sure Texas is going to win easily I don’t see it.
SP+ line: Texas by 1.2
Vegas line: Texas by 7.5
Watchability tier: III
Previous meetings: These two titans of the sport have met… twice. The first was the 2004-2005 Rose Bowl, an all-time banger of a game that set the stage for Vince Young to return a year later and win a national title. Texas won 38-37. They met again… last season. Texas won 31-12.
Last bowl game: This is Michigan’s fifth straight bowl game, dating to the 2021 Orange Bowl. They lost 34-11 to Georgia. Last season they beat Alabama 19-13 in the ReliaQuest Bowl. This is Texas’s fourth bowl in a row, dating to a 27-20 loss to Washington in the 2022 Alamo Bowl. Last season, the Longhorns made the college football playoff, defeating Clemson 38-24 in the first round, Arizona State 39-31 at the Peach Bowl, before falling in the semis by 28-14 to Ohio State at the Orange Bowl.
Announcers: Mark Jones, Roddy Jones, and Alyssa Lang
3:30: Nebraska vs. Utah (Las Vegas Bowl @ Paradise, NV; ESPN): Utah has a new coach for the first time since 2004, but I don’t think that will impede them much against a relatively decent-but-not-good Nebraska team.
SP+ line: Utah by 14.9
Vegas line: Utah by 16.5
Watchability tier: III
Previous meetings: These teams have met four times, and since they were all before 1995, I don’t think I need to spell out that how Nebraska went 4-0, just that all but one of these scores is pretty lopsided.
Last bowl game: The Huskers defeated Boston College 20-15 in last year’s Pinstripe Bowl. For the Utes, this is their first postseason appearance since teh 2023 Last Vegas Bowl, a 14-7 loss to Northwestern.
Announcers: Dave Flemming, Brock Osweiler, and Dawn Davenport
7:30: Ohio State (#2) vs. Miami (#10) (Cotton Bowl @ Arlington, TX; ESPN): Welcome back to the playoff for the final game of 2025. And this could be a doozy: Miami just showed that their defense can hang. The problem, though, is that Ohio State’s defense is more than game and their offense has significantly fewer questions than Miami’s. I won’t be surprised if it’s close, and I won’t be surprised if it’s a good game, but I just don’t see very many ways Miami wins, outside of basically playing the Texas A&M game again. And, well, unlike a couple weeks ago in College Station, the wind is not expected to be a factor inside of Jerry Jones’s palace.
SP+ line: OSU by 10.5
Vegas line: OSU by 10
Watchability tier: IV
Previous meetings: These teams have met five times. The first was a 10-0 Buckeye win in 1977, but that’s before Miami was Miami. Let’s get to their most famous meeting: the 2002-2003 Fiesta Bowl, a 31-24 overtime win that has been the subject of some controversy that I’m sure will come up at least once in the broadcast. Their most recent meeting was a 24-6 Miami win 2011. Overall, Ohio State has a 3-2 series lead.
Last bowl game: Ohio State has a 14 game streak dating to the 2013-14 Orange Bowl, a 38-28 loss to Boise State. Last season, they defeated Tennessee 42-17 in the first round of the playoff, beat Oregon 41-21 in the Rose Bowl, Texas 28-14 in the Cotton Bowl, and then beat Notre Dame 34-23 to claim the national title in Atlanta. Birght and early on December 20th, Miami found a way to beat the windy conditiosn and Texas A&M’s defensive line to beat the Aggies 10-3 in College Station.
Announcers: Dave Pasch, Dusty Dvoracek, Taylor McGregor, and Quint Kessenich