Welcome back.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon: North Carolina vs. Texas Christian (Aer Lingus Classic @ Dublin, Ireland; ESPN): Year 2 of the Bill Bellichick era at Carolina is here, and I’m sure Tar Heel fans are more than ready to talk about actual football. The problem is that there’s not a lot to indicate that this won’t be much different than last season’s opening debacle in Chapel Hill, even if this is an ocean away.

3:00: San Jose State @ Southern California (NBC): Hey, so you’ve probably at least heard that there’s a movie called The Odyssey out, right? (I saw it, it’s great.) And you’re probably aware that it’s based on a 2,000 year old epic poem? So you probably have had multiple opportunities to learn the broad strokes of the Trojan War, yeah?

So if you aren’t face palming yet, here’s why you should. The Trojans, somewhat famously, are the losers of the Trojan War, the framing conflict of the story. And they lose to the Greeks, who trick them using a giant wooden horse filled with their dudes. And one of the major Greek factions? The Spartans! As in, the San Jose State Spartans! Now, look, USC are going to be massive favorites here, but if they field another vintage Lincoln Riley defense and let SJSU hang around too long in this one, some serious questions are going to be asked.

3:30: North Carolina State @ Virginia (ESPN): Yes, this one does count as an ACC game (though if I recall correctly his was originally scheduled as a non-conference game but with the ACC (mostly) going to a 9 game conference schedule they just rolled it in). All that said, both teams have massive questions, but I like NC State here. Mostly. Probably.

5:30: Jacksonville State @ North Dakota State (CBSS): The Fargodome gets its first FBS game early, and the thing is, they’re probably going to win! The usual issue for the FCS to FBS transition is depth, but NDSU has been so good for so long that if there were a team that felt like it was going to make the transition with verve, it’d be them.

7:00:

• New Mexico State @ Florida State (The CW): Surely, Mike Norvell can handle this one.
• Hawaii @ Stanford (ACCN): Stanford is going to be bad this year, as in bad enough that I think Hawaii has a fairly good shot to win this one.

10:00: Memphis @ Nevada-Las Vegas (FOX): This could well be the G6 vs. G6 game of the year. Both of these schools see themselves as playoff contenders, but I think UNLV is better. We’ll find out tomorrow(!) night.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Friday

7:00:

• Kennesaw State @ Jacksonville State (Conference USA Championship Game; CBSS): The primetime action gets started with a surprising season by the Owls. They’re genuinely good, but one of the revisit the site of one of their defeats a month ago. The conventional wisdom is that “it’s hard to beat a team twice”, which, yes, but I still like the Jacksonville (Alabama) State to do it again.
• Troy @ James Madison (Sun Belt Conference Championship Game; ESPN): This is easily the biggest mismatch of any of the champ games, and anything other than a JMU blowout would be a shocking result.

8:00:

• North Texas @ Tulane (American Conference Championship Game; ABC): North Texas has one of the most prolific offenses in FBS. I don’t think that the Green Wave can move the ball well enough to keep up.
• Nevada-Las Vegas @ Boise State (Mountain West Conference Championship Game; FOX): About the only advantage for Boise here is the game being in Boise. Otherwise, I think UNLV is an all around better team. They took care of business last week in Reno, so I don’t think cold conditions will bother the Runnin’ Rebels too much.

Saturday

Noon:

• Brigham Young vs. Texas Tech (Big 12 Conference Championship Game @ Arlington, TX; ABC): BYU is good enough to prevent this from being a complete mismatch, and again, it’s hard to beat the same team twice. But the way Texas Tech has been beating everyone, including BYU this first time around, makes me think it won’t be much of an issue for the Red Raiders.
• Miami vs. Western Michigan (Mid-American Conference Championship @ Detroit, MI; ESPN): Yet another rematch! That said, unlike most of the other ones, the team that lost last time is the favorite: WMU blew a 17-9 lead on the road to lose 26-17 back in October. Unfortunately for the Redhawks, they proceeded to lose their next two MAC contents to contenders Ohio and Toledo, while WMU finished out the rest of the MAC slate unblemished. This one is effectively a coin flip to me, but I’ll follow the odds and slightly prefer WMU.
• South Dakota @ Mercer (NCAA Division I Second Round; ESPN+)
• Villanova @ Lehigh (NCAA Division I Second Round; ESPN+)

1:00:

• North Dakota @ Tarleton State (NCAA Division I Second Round; ESPN+)
• Illinois State @ North Dakota State (NCAA Division I Second Round; ESPN+)
• Abilene Christian @ Stephen F. Austin (NCAA Division I Second Round; ESPN+)

2:00:

• Prairie View A&M @ Jackson State (Southwestern Athletic Conference Championship Game; ESPN2)
• Yale @ Montana State (NCAA Division I Second Round; ESPN+)
• South Dakota State @ Montana (NCAA Division I Second Round; ESPN+)

3:00: Rhode Island @ California-Davis (NCAA Division I Second Round; ESPN+)

4:00: Georgia vs. Alabama (Southeastern Conference Championship Game @ Atlanta, GA; ABC): Finally, a game where it might actually be difficult to beat the same team twice. Especially given how Bama has beaten Georgia the past few years, which follows the same script: come out with something the Georgia defense hasn’t seen before, build a lead off of that, and then hold on for dear life. I don’t think that’s a formula that will allow the Tide to stave them off once again. On the Georgia side, there’s a lot of folks worried about their offense after we held them to season lows in points and yards last week. I assure you: don’t worry. Georgia had a very conservative, vanilla gameplan and really took their foot off the gas after getting up 10-3. Would they have preferred to score a couple more touchdowns? Sure. But they knew they didn’t need to. A great example is at the end of the game when they punted the ball back to us instead converting a 4th and short for the win. I will bet you if that situation arises in this game, Georgia goes for the win. That said, I think the main thing that will be interesting about this game is how Bama loses, especially if they lose in a way that puts their playoff status in jeopardy.

8:00:

• Virginia vs. Duke (Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game @ Charlotte, NC; ABC): Among all of the other dumb things about this, naturally of the teams in the jumbled mess at the top of the ACC is that these two actually did play each other in the regular season. The result? Virginia won handily. As I’ve said many times in this post, it’s hard to beat a team twice, and this is going to be on a neutral field. I still like the Hoos here.
• Indiana vs. Ohio State (Big Ten Conference Championship Game @ Indianapolis, IN; FOX): Finally, the game of the century of the day. Ohio State finally makes it back to Indy, and Indiana, well, this is just unprecedented. Ohio State’s defense will finally face a team that will make them work. (Speaking of great examples from last week: Ohio State thought so little of Michigan’s offense that they declined a holding penalty to make it 3rd and 5 around midfield instead of 2nd and 15.) Indiana is definitely going to get theirs., I believe this is a game much more likely to be about who fails to hold serve than anything else. Indiana has blown out basically everyone, but their defense is largely untested. This gives the Buckeyes a slight edge, but again, I think this is really anyone’s game. This feels like it’s going to be must-see TV.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

• Miami @ Pittsburgh (ABC): Okay, so Miami is going to win this game… unless the Pitt Superweapon has heretofore unknown multi-week properties. This is mostly because when Pat Narduzzi said he didn’t care if Pitt lost 100-0 to Notre Dame as long as they won the next two games, he apparently really meant it. We’ll see what happens, provided we’re not all too busy paying attention to the next game on this list.
• Ohio State @ Michigan (“The Game”; FOX): You have probably heard, but just in case you haven’t: Michigan has won four in a row in this rivalry. The most galling example was last year’s, where an unranked Michigan won 13-10. Sure, Ohio State certainly had bigger goals in mind (they did, after all, win a national title), but it still sure seemed like that Ryan Day and company seemed to think the best way to beat Michigan was… to play down them. So, in a similiar sentiment to last year’s post, Ohio State is going to win, but it’ll be very funny if they once again come up short.
• Texas Tech @ West Virginia (ESPN): I don’t see anyway that WVU can slow down Texas Tech.
• Colorado @ Kansas State (FS1): Here’s the scores in each of Colorado’s last four games, all losses: 53-7, 52-17, 29-22, 42-17.
• Houston @ Baylor (TNT): It’s probably not great for either of these teams that I still have no idea what to make of either… at the end of the regular season. Baylor seems worryingly close to the “q-word”, which makes me lean Houston, but still.
• Iowa State @ Oklahoma State (ESPNU): Cyclones all the way here.
• Ball State @ Miami (CBSS): I’ll take Miami here.
• Clemson @ South Carolina (“Palmetto Bowl”; SECN): Either this will be the end-cap to an extremely disappointing season for the Gamecocks, or it’ll make the whole thing worth it. I suspect the former.
• Kentucky @ Louisville (“Governor’s Cup”; ACCN): I still think Louisville is at least a half-decent team, which usually means the beef it in this rivalry.
• Toledo @ Central Michigan (ESPN+)
• East Carolina @ Florida Atlantic (ESPN+)
• Central Connecticut @ Rhode Island (NCAA Division I First Round; ESPN+)
• Harvard @ Villanova (NCAA Division I First Round; ESPN+)
• Yale @ Youngstown State (NCAA Division I First Round; ESPN+)

1:00:

• Central Florida @ Brigham Young (ESPN2): BYU will hit UCF early and often, cementing an extremely disappointing homecoming for Scott Frost that will leave the Knights with more questions than answers.
• Texas-El Paso @ Delaware (ESPN+)
• Florida International @ Sam Houston State (ESPN+)
• Lamar @ Abilene Christian (NCAA Division I First Round; ESPN+)
• Drake @ South Dakota (NCAA Division I First Round; ESPN+)
• New Hampshire @ South Dakota State (NCAA Division I First Round; ESPN+)
• Illinois State @ Southeastern Louisiana (NCAA Division I First Round; ESPN+)
• North Dakota @ Tennessee Tech (NCAA Division I First Round; ESPN+)

1:30: Georgia Southern @ Marshall (ESPN+)

2:00:

• Georgia State @ Old Dominion (ESPN+)
• Western Kentucky @ Jacksonville State (ESPN+)
• Louisiana Tech @ Missouri State (ESPN+)
• Southern vs. Grambling State (Bayou Classic @ New Orleans, LA; NBC)

2:30: Arkansas State @ Appalachian State (ESPN+)

3:00:

• Boston College @ Syracuse (The CW): This is nominally a rivalry. At any rate, BC has probably their best actual chance at a win against a depleted Syracuse that has lost 7 in a row. I’ll go ahead and make it 8.
• Middle Tennessee State @ New Mexico State (ESPN+)
• South Alabama @ Texas State (ESPN+)
• Louisiana-Monroe @ Louisiana (“Battle on the Bayou”; ESPN+)
• Alabama-Birmingham @ Tulsa (ESPN+)

3:30:

• Louisiana State @ Oklahoma (ABC): The Sooners figure to put an exclamation point on an excellent season of the ugliest football imaginable. My final score guess is something like 13-6 that’s never in doubt.
• Oregon @ Washington (CBS): While I still miss their actual in-state rivalries, it’s hard to argue with this one taking the spot. While the Ducks are probably in the playoff regardless of the result, I’d advise them to take care of business against a UDub team that is certainly going to be game at home.
• Cincinnati @ Texas Christian (FOX): Cincinnati is good, outside of the part where they’ve seemingly lost three in a row, and possibly their mojo. That adds a bit more intrigue to this game that it probably deserves, and TCU is rolling in fresh off an upset of the previously ranked Houston Cougars. I consider this one a coin flip, so let’s go with the Frogs.
• Vanderbilt @ Tennessee (ESPN): For possibly the first time I can remember in nearly three decades of watching college football, Vandy is the favorite here. It’s not like Vandy has been totally helpless in the past decade. Yes, they’ve lost the last six in a row, but before that they’d won 5 of 7. This isn’t a plucky upstart of a Vanderbilt team, either. That said, I just sort like the Vols at home? I’d love to be wrong, though.
• Wisconsin @ Minnesota (FS1): Luke Fickell got a tad more than the “dreaded vote of confidence”… and then the Badgers played their best game of the season against Illinois. If Wisconsin can do that again, they can get the axe back. I like their chances.
• Pennsylvania State @ Rutgers (BTN): Turns out, Penn State is still pretty good. They should roll over Rutgers and make a bowl that seemed pretty unlikely after their crashout.
• Missouri @ Arkansas (“Battle Line Rivalry”; SECN): Mizzou, by lot.
• Wake Forest @ Duke (ACCN): Wake, please just end our collective misery of caring about Duke football. That’s all I ask.
• Kennesaw State @ Liberty (CBSS): Go Owls.
• Army @ Texas-San Antonio (ESPN+)
• Troy @ Southern Mississippi (ESPN+)

3:45: James Madison @ Coastal Carolina (ESPNU): I don’t see anything here that will stop JMU’s romp through the Sun Belt.

4:30: Florida State @ Florida (“Sunshine Showdown”; ESPN2): I know this game has been weird the past few years, but I’m not sure there’s been a more juiceless version, as possibly the only way it could’ve had less, er, juice, is if FSU had wound up firing Mike Norvell. As is, FSU probably should win but I won’t be surprised by an result.

6:30: Oregon State @ Washington State (The CW): Wazzu may be one of the most snakebit teams in the country. (I mean, in addition to all of the ways both of these teams got screwed by the latest round of realignment.) The Cougs are 5-6, with what is turning out to be a pretty good win over San Diego State. They also have four losses by 4 points or less, all on the road. In what is the second leg of the Pac-12 Championship, I like them here.

7:00:

• Virginia Tech @ Virginia (“Commonwealth Cup”; ESPN): The Hokies four-game winning streak in this rivalry figures to end here.
• Maryland vs. Michigan State (@Detroit, MI; FS1): This is a classic “stoppable force vs. moveable object” game: the Terps have lost seven straight, and the Spartans have lost eight straight. Suffice it to say, I have no clue how to project a winner in this one. I guess Sparty has a slight edge? Woof.
• Rice @ South Florida (ESPN+)

7:30:

• Alabama @ Auburn (“Iron Bowl”; ABC): Okay, let’s point out all of the things in Auburn’s favor: it’s at night and in Jordan-Hare. Uh… I think that’s about it. And, look, that’s certainly notched some bizarre victories for the Tigers in this game. That said, I can’t really take that and say that the Tigers will be able to overcome all their disadvantages to claim a win for the first time since 2019.
• Northwestern @ Illinois (FOX): I think Northwestern stands a fair chance in this game, especially since Illinois just let a previously moribund Wisconsin get an easy win. Still picking Illinois, but this could be a good one.
• California-Los Angeles @ Southern California (NBC): UCLA has lost four straight, and none were particularly close. USC will  make it five straight.
• Charlotte @ Tulane (ESPNU): Tulane is win-and-in into the American title game, and uh, yeah, they can definitely finish the job here.
• North Carolina @ North Carolina State (ACCN): Speaking of finishing the job, I think NC State knows what to do here.

8:00: Southern Methodist @ California (ESPN2): SMU isn’t as good as last year, but… they’re 8-3 and 6-1 in the ACC. Cal was so tired of being inconsistent (and losing to inferior Stanford teams) that they finally fired their coach, which isn’t a good omen going into this one. I like the Ponies here.

9:00: Nevada-Las Vegas @ Nevada (“Battle for Nevada”; CBSS): Nevada has reeled off a two game winning streak after spending of the season looking like one of the worst teams in FBS. Not bad, but I’m not sure it’ll matter much here.

10:30:

• Notre Dame @ Stanford (ESPN): Good on Stanford for getting the axe back, as that might be their best defense against what the Irish are probably going to do to them.
• Fresno State @ San Jose State (FS1): Has anyone else noticed that San Jose State is kinda bad? Fresno has not been amazing this season, but they figure to win the battle of the valley schools pretty handily.

11:00: Wyoming @ Hawaii (Spectrum): Once again, this is the last full Saturday of the season. I hope you this aloha from Hawaii.