Monthly Archives: November 2017

Bowl Predictions 2017: Week 6

Come and get ’em!

Okay, this is the second-to-last edition. We’ve even got our first confirmed pairing: UAB vs. Ohio in the Bahamas Bowl. (Welcome back, Blazers!) But we’ve also got more chaos than ever in the playoff picture. Let’s talk about that, bullet-point style.

  • Here’s the not-controversial part, maybe other than where they’re ranked: ACC champion, SEC champion, Oklahoma if they beat TCU in the Big 12 championship.
  • So that’s the three. Who’s the fourth? Well, if Wisconsin beats Ohio State in the Big Ten championship, then there’s no debate that undefeated Wisconsin will be in. But what if Ohio State beats Wisconsin? Does 2-loss Big Ten champ Ohio State get in over 1-loss Alabama? The arguments are otherwise very similar, but Ohio State has an edge over Alabama in terms of strength-of-schedule (reminder, Alabama’s best win is LSU) and a conference championship.
  • So this is why I’m projecting #1 Auburn vs. #4 Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl and #2 Auburn vs. #3 Oklahoma in the Rose Bowl.
  • Alabama, as the highest ranked team from the SEC/Big Ten/Notre Dame, would get an Orange Bowl bid, matched against Miami.
  • The other notable thing is that with the loss to Pitt, I had a hard time putting Notre Dame in the New Year’s Six over TCU. I’m not completely sure on this, but I think a three-loss Notre Dame will drop like a rock in the rankings.
  • Alabama would have to go to the Orange as per the rules, assuming Georgia falls below them if they lose to Auburn in the SEC championship. The Committee may send UGA out west instead of putting them in Atlanta for the 3rd time in just over a month, but I think if the Peach winds up with Central Florida they’ll want a strong local draw.

Other news and notes:

  • Currently there are 79 bowl eligible teams, and I’m projecting Florida State and New Mexico State to get eligible this weekend, for a total of 81. With the demise of the Poinsettia Bowl, that means there’s 78 bids available, so there’s three extra teams.
  • With the SEC getting 3 teams into the New Year’s Six, that leaves less than 7 SEC teams available for their top-tier berths. I have the Liberty Bowl getting the short end of the stick.
  • The Pac-12, meanwhile, has the opposite problem. They have only 5 berths after the NY6, and I’m projecting only the Pac-12 champion to get in. They 9 total eligible teams, though, so I’m figuring Utah and UCLA will be left out. A tweet indicated that Independence Bowl representatives were at the UCLA-Cal game Saturday, but that would require a swap to be arranged since the Independence has an arrangement with Conference-USA already. 
  • With Notre Dame not getting into the NY6, I have them pipping the first available ACC bowl slot, bumping everyone else down a spot. I wound up putting newly eligible Duke in the Birmingham Bowl.
  • Even if they’ve been there a lot recently, I think Oklahoma State is the most exciting option for the Alamo Bowl from the Big 12.
  • If the Big 12 gets both Oklahoma and TCU in the NY6, that really dashes the chances of Texas in the Texas Bowl against Texas A&M.
  • I didn’t want to send Stanford to San Diego for the second time this season (they played at San Diego State back in September), but I think the Holiday will like getting a Stanford team that’s finished strong down there. And the weather everywhere in California is nice, but San Diego it’s always just that much nicer.

That’s it for now. I expect some other minor bids to be announced during the week, and that I will have to hustle to get a new set of projections out this Saturday to stay ahead of the news. Until then!

THWG Thought of the Day: 11/25

Men, Georgie’s a fine football team, a very fine football team. Georgie’s bigger and faster than we are. Probably a little tougher, too.

That’s okay, because we’re smarter than they are.

Now, let me tell you what’s going to happen. That Georgie team’s going to come running out of the tunnel screaming and foaming at the mouth and smashing one another upside the head just to get warmed up.

We won’t do any of that. While they waste their energy, we’ll conserve ours. I’ve told you that they’re bigger, faster, and tougher than you. That’s true. But we do have that one big advantage.

We … are … smarter.

Think about what I teach you. Play field position. Play great defense. Make no mistakes on offense. Be great in the kicking game. Do that and we’ll keep it close.

As the game goes on, they’ll start to get tired because they wasted so much energy in the beginning. Because we’re smart, we’ll have plenty of energy left, and at some point in the fourth quarter they’ll make a mistake.

When they do make that mistake, we’ll get the football. And when that happens, I’ll think of something and we’ll win!

Coach Bobby Dodd, as told by Bill Curry

This Weekend in College Football: Week 13

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Georgia @ Georgia Tech (ABC): TO HELL WITH GEORGIA
  • Ohio State @ Michigan (FOX): All right, it’s hard to think of anything to say about this game that hasn’t already been said. If you don’t have a rooting interest in any of these other games, this is probably where you want to me. I like Ohio State, but boy howdy is it super dependent on which version shows up.
  • Florida State @ Florida (ESPN): Ugh. Uh, FSU? Florida has looked completely checked out the past two weeks.
  • Indiana @ Purdue (ESPN2): Purdue had a kind of out-of-nowhere result last week with an upset at Iowa, and I like them to continue the trend at home against the Hoosiers.
  • Kansas @ Oklahoma State (FS1): Kansas is capital-B Bad.
  • East Carolina @ Memphis (ESPNU): Unless Memphis isn’t awake for this 11 AM local time start, or is just looking ahead to UCF next week, they shouldn’t have any issues here.
  • Connecticut @ Cincinnati (ESPNEWS): Ugh. Uh, Cincy?
  • Louisville @ Kentucky (SEC): The Fightin’ Lamar Jacksons seek revenge for last year’s demoralizing loss, and once again you’d have to predict them to win.
  • Tulane @ Southern Methodist (CBSS): Maybe keep an eye on this one, this could be lit. Though if that happens, that would definitely be in SMU’s favor.

12:20: Boston College @ Syracuse (ACC): Boston College figures to continue their late-season surge, while the Orange have been doing pretty much the opposite.

12:30: Duke @ Wake Forest (ACC/RSN): Despite I watched what Duke did to my own team last week, I still like Wake a lot here. They’re a better all around team.

3:30:

  • Alabama @ Auburn (CBS): You could pretty much make this a bracket. The winner here plays Georgia in the SEC championship, and the winner there makes it into the playoff. Who will win? Auburn has looked fantastic since they lost to LSU, a string of 30+ point wins in their wake (including demolishing Georgia earlier this month). Bama has, of course, been Bama, but here’s the thing: who have they played? Their best win is either LSU or Mississippi State, which isn’t quite a Georgia-quality win at this point. I still take the view that you bet against the Tide at your risk, but this is the most vulnerable Alabama team in years.
  • Wisconsin @ Minnesota (ABC): After losing to Northwestern, it’s safe to say the boat is pretty much sunk for Minnesota. I like the Badgers to retain the Axe here.
  • Iowa State @ Kansas State (ESPN2): Not technically a rivalry, though it does have a fun nickname (“Farmageddon”) and is one of the most played rivalries in the history of college football (8th longest, 100 straight meetings). The Cyclones have been one of the most interesting teams in football, but even K-State got into the act last week by putting an already lethargic Oklahoma State team in a sleeperhold. With the game in the Little Apple, I’m leaning slightly toward the home team.
  • North Carolina @ North Carolina State (ESPNU): UNC’s lost season figures to come to a merciful end.
  • Pennsylvanian State @ Maryland (BTN): Maryland is feisty this year, but it hasn’t often translated into wins, a trend that figures to continue against the Nittany Lions.

3:45: West Virginia @ Oklahoma (ESPN): West Virginia isn’t especially good this year, but they’re still dangerous enough to wreck Oklahoma’s chances of making the playoff. I’m not going to predict that, but there’s a chance.

4:00:

  • Michigan State @ Rutgers (FOX): Rutgers is better this year, but… nah.
  • Northwestern @ Illinois (FS1): Northwestern.
  • Temple @ Tulsa (ESPNEWS): Temple.
  • Vanderbilt @ Tennessee (SEC): Should I predict that Tennessee will finish its first ever winless SEC season with a loss here? Eh, why the hell not, let’s do this.

4:30: Arizona @ Arizona State (Pac12): As usual, Khalil Tate figures to just be too much for the Sun Devils. Take advantage of the opportunity to watch this if you get Pac-12 Network.

7:00: Oregon State @ Oregon (ESPN2): The Civil War has a reputation, but I don’t think an Oregon State team that is winless against FBS teams is much of a threat for the Ducks.

7:30:

  • Clemson @ South Carolina (ESPN): These Gamecocks are improved, sure, but of their five SEC wins, three of them have come against teams that have fired their coach. Clemson has looked more like Clemson of recent weeks, and so I don’t think they’ll have issues here.
  • Texas-San Antonio @ Louisiana Tech (ESPNU): Looking over these two teams’ records, I’m actually leaning toward UTSA a little bit. I didn’t figure on that, but here we are.
  • Texas A&M @ Louisiana State (SEC): With the reports that Sumlin is out regardless of the result of this game, I’d have to guess that they might be a little bit flat. I like LSU here.

8:00:

  • Washington State @ Washington (FOX): Well, the Apple Cup isn’t quite as hype as we thought it’d be when both of these teams were undefeated, but this still figures to be a lot of fun. Wazzu can still make it to Santa Clara with a win, but I think the Huskies are a better team and they always have an edge at home.
  • Notre Dame @ Stanford (ABC): Speaking of taking advantage of a time slot to watch Khalil Tate, you can even see Bryce Love in primetime on broadcast television! That said, Notre Dame is a better all-around team than Stanford is this year. This figures to not be a good look for the Pac-12, especially if Washington wins the Apple Cup (and Stanford proceeds to the Pac-12 title game on tiebreakers).

9:00: Brigham Young @ Hawaii (CBSS): BYU, but avoid this unless you really need video footage from somewhere sunny and warm right now.

10:00: Colorado @ Utah (FS1): It’s not only the Battle of the Rockies, it’s the Battle of Last Place Teams In the Pac-12 South. Nonetheless, Utah’s the better team, they’ve just had some bad luck this year. I like the Utes here.

10:15: Utah State @ Air Force (ESPN2): Air Force just, well, hasn’t been good this year. I don’t figure that will change with this game.

This Week in College Football: Week 13

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Thursday
7:30: Mississippi @ Mississippi State (ESPN): Okay, the Egg Bowl is usually good, but this year it figures the Bulldogs will just put the Rebels out of their misery.

Friday
11:30: Western Michigan @ Toledo (ESPNU): Toledo’s been a solid MAC team for years, but they’ve developed a reputation for blowing their shots at winning their division by suffering bad late-season upsets. They can clinch the MAC West here with a win over 5-6 Western Michigan.

Noon:

  • Miami @ Pittsburgh (ABC): Okay Miami, all you have to do is go to a half-full Heinz Field this Friday and not screw this up. It’s going to be cold but sunny. You’ll go to Charlotte (for the first time!) next weekend either way, but still, it’s important for the sake of the ACC that you’re undefeated.
  • Navy @ Houston (ESPN): Well, both these teams are 6-4, but they’ve arrived there by different ways. I’d actually thought Navy was done this year, but looking the balance of the season for the Midshipmen I like them here.
  • Baylor @ Texas Christian (FS1): Well, this one’s easy: TCU.
  • Northern Illinois @ Central Michigan (CBSS): It’s MACtion Friday, apparently! NIU needs this and a Toledo loss earlier to win the MAC West, while CMU is just trying to play spoiler. That said, I pretty heavily favor the Huskies here.

2:30: Missouri @ Arkansas (CBS): If you told me two months ago that Mizzou would be favorite by over a touchdown here, I’d have said you were crazy, but here we are.

3:30:

  • South Florida @ Central Florida (ABC): Here’s the one you’ve been waiting for, finally. Worth noting though that USF has continued to struggle a after their loss to Houston, which means that UCF enters as heavy favorites. Which isn’t to say that this won’t be close, but it’d be hard to see the Bulls pulling this thing out.
  • New Mexico @ San Diego Sate (CBSS): The Lobos have been pretty awful this year, this figures to just put them out of their misery.

4:00: Iowa @ Nebraska (FS1): Iowa figures to remain LIT IOWA, which sometimes mean destroying Ohio State by 31 points and sometimes means losing to Purdue. Which one are the actual Hawkeyes? Spoiler: it’s both. I like them here.

7:00: Western Kentucky @ Florida International (beIN): I like Western Kentucky here.

8:00:

  • Texas Tech @ Texas (FOX): They’re not rivals, sure, but nonetheless they’re playing for the Governor’s Spurs! You can’t deny that. Well, you can, but still. Texas Tech isn’t terrible or anything, but as the Longhorns have improved over the course of the year they figure to win.
  • Virginia Tech @ Virginia (ESPN): The Commonwealth Cup features a feisty Virginia, but I don’t think that will be enough to stop the Hokies.

10:30: California @ California-Los Angeles (FS1): It’s not officially the Battle of California, but it probably should be. Anyway, I have no idea who’s going to win this game, but UCLA did just fire their coach, so let’s roll with Cal.

Bowl Preictions 2017: Week 5

Get ’em while they’re fresh.

Reflecting the general lack of, well, anything in college football’s Week 12, there were a handful of changes, but not a lot at the top. I did shuffle around some CFP-controlled bowl spots, but nothing too major. I also brought the Texas-Texas A&M Texas Bowl back because I could.

There were scattered bits of news that I was able to find, the main thing being that Boise State will probably go to the Las Vegas Bowl if they win the Mountain West, which figures but last year they were allowed to go to Cactus Bowl to get a better matchup, so these sorts of things happen sometimes.

One other thing: I had 79 teams thanks to Florida State scheduling an extra game to get to 6-6, which I didn’t realize until I did all the predictions originally. I slotted them in, but I’d expect more accurate results next week. Until then!