Monthly Archives: March 2022

2022 World Cup Update – CONCACAF Clinch Scenarios

See my previous post for the update for every other confederation. Here’s what the US, Mexico, and Costa Rica need to do to make the World Cup in their last matches.

The situation:

Team           Pts     GD        GS
Canada         28      +17       23
United States  25      +13       21
Mexico         25       +7       15
Costa Rica     22       +3       11

All other CONCACAF teams have been eliminated. Canada has qualified directly, and the remaining three can do no worse than go to the inter-confederation playoff in June.

Here’s the scenario:

  • The United States will clinch with any win or draw at Costa Rica.
  • The United States will clinch with a loss at Costa Rica by less than 6 goals.
    • The United States can also clinch with a loss if Mexico loses by a greater margin than the US.
  • Mexico will clinch with any win or draw against El Salvador.
  • Mexico will clinch with a loss if Costa Rica loses or draws against the United States.
  • Mexico can clinch with a loss and Costa Rica wins, depending on the margin in both matches (i.e., Mexico loses 1-0 and Costa Rica wins 1-0 would still put Costa Rica in on goal difference, +6 to +4, as well as the United States at +12).
  • Costa Rica can only clinch with a win and either:
    • Defeating the United States by 6 or more goals, putting them through on goal difference.
    • Defeating the United States by a sufficient margin to overcome Mexico’s goal difference advantage with a Mexico loss.

2022 World Cup Update – Clinch Scenarios

Hey folks, so this is going to be short and sweet. Qualification is going on around the world in literally every region. I’ll sum up the current action and what teams need to do to clinch a spot in the World Cup. And don’t forget, my page with details for every member of FIFA is updated through today!


All of the automatic qualifiers in Asia are set: South Korea, Iran, Japan, and Saudi Arabia. The remaining action is in Group A to determine who will face Australia to then determine who gets to play a South American team for the World Cup. The contenders are the UAE, Iraq, and Lebanon, who have 9, 8, and 6 points, respectively.

Unfortunately, none of the three play each other, which would make this easier. Here’s the scenarios:

  • UAE clinches advancement to the 5th round with a win over South Korea.
  • UAE clinches advancement with a draw or loss AND:
    • An Iraq loss or draw AND
    • A Lebanon draw or loss or win by less than 5 goals
  • Iraq clinches advancement to the next round with a win over Syria and any UAE draw or loss
  • Lebanon clinches advancement to the next round with a win by at least 5 goals and a UAE loss and an Iraq draw or loss


Not really any scenarios here: the African third round features five home-and-home matches, and the winner on aggregate goes to the World Cup. Away goals are a tiebreaker.

  • Egypt leads Senegal 1-0 (0-0 away goals)
  • Algeria leads Cameroon 1-0 (1-0 away goals)
  • Ghana and Nigeria drew 0-0 after the first match in Ghana
  • Democratic Republic of the Congo drew Morocco 1-1 at home (so away goals favor Morocco 1-0)
  • Tunisia leads Mali 1-0 (with a 1-0 away goals advantage for Tunisia as well)

The second matches will all be played on Tuesday.


South America’s automatic qualifiers are set: Brazil, Argentina, Ecuador, and Uruguay are all in. Peru, Colombia, and Chile are still in contention for the playoff spot, with 21, 20, and 19 points, respectively.

  • Peru advances to the playoff with a win over Paraguay
  • Peru advances with a draw and a Colombia loss to Venezuela and a Chile draw or loss to Uruguay
  • Colombia advances with a win and a Peru draw or loss
  • Colombia advances with a draw and a Peru loss and a Chile draw or loss
  • Chile advances with a win and a Peru draw and a Colombia draw or loss


CONACAF still has 2 matches remaining, so the scenarios will only cover the next matchday.

  • Canada clinches World Cup qualification with a win over Jamaica
  • Canada clinches with a draw or loss and a Costa Rica draw or loss to El Salvador
  • United States clinches with a win over Panama and a Costa Rica draw or loss to El Salvador
  • Mexico clinches with a win over Honduras and a Costa Rica draw or loss to El Salvador


The Oceania qualifying is finally underway. After a group stage that saw two more teams drop out, the final bracket is set. Papua New Guinea will play the Solomon Islands, and New Zealand will play Tahiti. The winners will then face off to determine who advances to the inter-confederation playoff against CONCACAF.


The three paths are not completely and likely may not be for a few more months due to world events.

  • In Path A, Wales beat Austria 2-1 but is waiting for their opponent, either Scotland or Ukraine.
  • In Path B, Poland got a walkover against Russia and Sweden beat Czechia 1-0, setting up a Poland-Sweden faceoff for a spot.
  • In Path C, Portugal beat Turkey 3-1 and in a shocker North Macedonia beat Italy 1-0, setting up a Portual-North Macedonia match for a World Cup spot.

So that’s the update. Action resumes tomorrow, check your favor score app for details.