Category Archives: On TV This Weekend

This Weekend in College Football: Week 3

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

11:30: Coastal Carolina @ Delaware (CBSS): Both schools are 1-1 with losses to P4 teams, but the details matter. Delaware gave Vanderbilt all they wanted, Coastal gave West Virginia all they wanted. This favors the Blue Hens.

Noon:

  • Georgia @ Arkansas (ABC): It figures to be a long season for the Hogs.
  • Kent State @ Ohio State (FOX): The Buckeyes will grind the Flashes into a fine paste, but that won’t do much to help them move on from the collapse in Austin last weekend.
  • North Carolina @ Clemson (ESPN): In my corner of the college sports take-industrial complex, an “anxiety bowl” is a game where a loss will send an already troubled program into a deep spiral, from which they may not recover. That’s certainly possible here, especially if Carolina wins.
  • Tulane @ Kansas State (ESPN2): I admired Tulane’s bold scheduling for this season, but a loss to Duke and a 4 point win over South Alabama (that game has to be the “Madri Gras Bowl”, right?) doesn’t do a lot to inspire confidence against a K-State team that has had a very strong start.
  • North Texas @ Texas State (USA): Texas State scheduled all of their out-of-conference games in the I-35 corridor, but it hasn’t exactly worked out for them, with two bad losses to Texas and UTSA. The Mean Green, meanwhile, took it on the chin against Indiana, but then they blasted UNLV and showed they’re still G6 contenders. I like them here.
  • Arizona State vs. Kansas (Union Jack Classic @ London, England; FS1): Oy wots a Sun Devil, m8? (ahem) Anyway, I don’t know if either of these teams is any good, so I’ll pick the Sun Devils.
  • Buffalo @ Pennsylvania State (BTN): Penn State all the way here.
  • Akron @ Minnesota (BTN): It won’t be a problem here, but y’all, Minnesota was bad against Miss State last week.
  • Bowling Green @ Iowa State (ESPNU): Clones all the way.
  • Mercer @ Georgia Tech (ACCN): An 0-2 start isn’t surprising, though if you’d asked me I figured we would’ve started 1-1. But the way we wound up 0-2 is surprising. The defense is bad bad. An offense that prides itself on running the ball can’t. It’s my hope that once the schedule eases up a bit and the team plays more “normal” opponents that we can figure this thing out, because otherwise it’ll be a long season.

12:30: Eastern Michigan @ Wisconsin (Peacock/NBCSN): Wisconsin isn’t good, but that won’t be a problem here.

12:45: North Carolina State @ Vanderbilt (SEC): This is kind of a weird game. Vandy is 2-0 but the second was a 35-26 win over Delaware. NC State got punked by Virginia in game one, but they don’t figure to be bad. I like Vandy here, but I think ultimately we’re going to learn a lot about these teams.

1:00: Wyoming @ Central Michigan (ESPN+)

2:00:

  • Southern Illinois @ Illinois (Peacock)
  • Maine @ Boston College (ACCNX)

3:00: Temple @ Toledo (CBSS): It’s hard to pick a MAC team in most of their OOC games, but I like the Rockets here?

3:30:

  • Southern California @ Rutgers (CBS): Rutgers is 0-2 with losses to the worst team in FBS the last several years (UMass) and the worst P4 team from last year (Boston College). Provided that the Trojans schedule travel better than the Rams do, they’ll win easily here.
  • Florida State @ Alabama (ABC): Okay, so FSU did win this game last year. But this feels like the beginning of the end for Mike Norvell.
  • Utah State @ Utah (“Battle of the Brothers”; FOX): This is actually a long, storied rivalry… but then BYU and Utah started moving up the tiers, and the Aggies didn’t. This game hasn’t been played much since 2009. Utah State did pip that 2012 game (their first win since 1997), but the Utes have won the three game since, I don’t see that changing here.
  • Kentucky @ Texas A&M (ESPN): Aggies roll.
  • Southern Methodist @ Louisville (ESPN2): It’s only mid-September, and yet here’s the game that could very well decide 2nd place in the ACC. I slightly like the Cards here, but this is a coin flip in the best way.
  • Duquesne @ Washington State (USA)
  • Texas-El Paso @ Michigan (BTN): Michigan should be 2-1 after this, since they’re going in at 1-1 and all.
  • Wagner @ California (ACCN)
  • Stonehill @ Massachusetts (ESPN+)
  • Miami vs. Cincinnati (“Battle for the Bell” @ Cincinnati, OH; ESPN+)

4:00:

  • Northern Iowa @ Iowa (FS1)
  • Stanford @ Duke (The CW): Stanford and Rutgers are definitely vying for the “worst P4 team” slot this season. I guess I should take some solace in that they have to play an East Coast road game before playing us.
  • Louisiana Tech @ Baylor (ESPNU): Bears roll.
  • Western Kentucky @ Indiana (Peacock/NBCSN): Hoosiers roll.
  • Ball State @ Liberty (ESPN+)

4:15: Mississippi State @ South Carolina (SEC): This figures to be a massive reality check for the Gamecocks, who are 2-0, yes, but those wins are over Kent State and Towson.

6:00:

  • East Carolina @ Old Dominion (ESPN+)
  • Charlotte @ Appalachian State (ESPN+)
  • Florida International @ Florida Atlantic (“Shula Bowl”; ESPN+)

6:30: Marshall @ Missouri State (CBSS): I’m going to go with Marshall here.

7:00:

  • Florida @ Auburn (ESPN): It’s a September SEC game, so expect cramps. Outside of that, I have no idea. Both of these teams have been rebuilt from the ground up, and we don’t have a lot of data. I’m favoring the Gators, but I can’t say that I really know why. I’ll mostly read all that as “keep an eye on this one”.
  • Troy @ Missouri (SEC+)
  • Nicholls @ Sam Houston State (ESPN+)
  • Connecticut @ Southern Mississippi (ESPN+)
  • Tennessee-Martin @ Memphis (ESPN+)
  • Georgia Southern @ Jacksonville State (ESPN+)
  • Western Michigan @ Rice (ESPN+)
  • Delaware State @ South Florida (ESPN+)
  • Georgia State @ Central Florida (ESPN+)
  • Ohio @ South Alabama (ESPN+)
  • Nevada @ Middle Tennessee State (ESPN+)
  • Murray State @ Oklahoma State (ESPN+)

7:15:

  • North Dakota @ Nebraska (BTN)
  • Eastern Washington @ Washington (BTN)

7:30:

  • Colorado @ Northwestern (FOX): Northwestern took a bye week… last week for some reason? If I had to guess they wanted to get as many games in the new Ryan Field as possible. So they’re 1-0, but with a big win over a usually strong FCS team (South Dakota State). Colorado has a new-look offense that may be the most sort of… honest? offense they’ve had under Deion. I like the Buffs here.
  • Brigham Young @ Colorado State (CBS): BYU all the way.
  • Michigan State @ Notre Dame (NBC): Irish roll.
  • Louisiana State @ Mississippi (“Magnolia Bowl”; ABC): I don’t think this game will be all that interesting, given all the hype. My thinking is that LSU is just “that good”, and the Rebels aren’t. The main thing is that this isn’t being played in Baton Rouge or a neutral site: it’s in Oxford, and the usually genteel crowd figures to frothing at the bit to put one over Lane. Whether that’s enough to get the team past LSU is the question. I don’t think it is, personally, but the off-the-field may be enough to keep an eye on this one.
  • New Mexico @ Oklahoma (ESPN2): Sooners roll.
  • Virginia Tech @ Maryland (FS1): Speaking of things on in my corner of the college football internet, we’ve had this one circled for a while. Sure, LSU and Lane Kiffin returning to Oxford is the more hyped version of this story, but all off season we’ve talked about this game. James Franklin was a coordinator and “head coach in waiting” on Ralph Friedgen’s late Maryland staffs. But when Maryland fired Friedgen in late 2010, they passed over Franklin and hired Randy Edsall instead. Franklin went to Vandy, and then got hired by Penn State in 2014. Reportedly, Franklin has never forgotten the slight by Maryland. Here’s a sampling of some Penn State-Maryland scores from Franklin’s tenure in State College: 38-14, 66-3, 38-3, 59-0, 31-14, 30-0, 51-15, and 44-7. Sure, the Terps have been bad for a lot of that time, but c’mon. So yeah, I’ve got the Hokies all the way here.
  • West Virginia vs. Virginia (@Charlotte, NC; ACCN): We may need to have a discussion about whether Virginia is Actually Good at some point this fall.

7:45: Kennesaw State @ Tennessee (SEC): Vols roll.

8:00:

  • Texas-San Antonio @ Texas (SEC+)
  • Alabama-Birmingham @ Louisiana (ESPN+)
  • East Texas A&M @ Tulsa (ESPN+)

10:00:

  • James Madison @ San Diego State (The CW): This game has very “unstoppable force vs. immovable object” energy and I am very here for it. I think I like the Aztecs at home, but it will definitely favor them if the score is more like “12-7” than “35-31”.
  • South Dakota @ Boise State (CBSS)

10:30:

  • North Dakota State @ Sacramento State (ESPN): This game has to be here because both teams needed a FBS opponent at the last minute, and well, here we are. That said, the Bison have looked ready for the jump and the Hornets… not so much.
  • Northern Illinois @ Arizona (TNT): It’s not going well for NIU so far, and this doesn’t figure to help things.

11:00:

  • Montana @ Oregon State (USA)
  • Fresno State @ San Jose State (FS1): This is a rivalry game that’s now a non-con game (again), though I do find it baffling SJSU didn’t make it into the new-look Pac-12 (after all, they have “state” in their name). And this figures to be the most even test for the two teams so far. I think I’m leaning slightly toward the Silicon Spartans, but keep an eye on it.
  • Purdue @ California-Los Angeles (BTN): Purdue is still… not good, but they’re not “worst team in the P4” contenders this year, I think. UCLA looks ascendant, though.

 

This Weekend in College Football: Week 2

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Arizona State @ Texas A&M (ABC): SELECTED LIGHTNING ROUND. TAMU!
  • Oklahoma @ Michigan (FOX): Remember when Michigan couldn’t block Western Michigan last week? Brent Venables is licking his chops. OU by a reasonable amount, but this may not be as close as the score.
  • Oregon @ Oklahoma State (ESPN): Oregon is going to work some stuff out here.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Temple (ESPN2): Penn State by a lot.
  • Wake Forest @ Purdue (FS1): Wake looked decent last week, and also, maybe some signs of life in West Lafayette? Still like Wake here.
  • Old Dominion @ Virginia Tech (The CW): ODU has beat Virginia Tech more than once, but probably not this time.
  • Washington State @ Kansas State (TNT): K-STATE!
  • Howard @ Indiana (BTN)
  • Appalachian State @ East Carolina (ESPNU): ECU!
  • East Tennessee State @ North Carolina (ACCN)
  • South Florida @ Army (CBSS): ARMY!
  • Wofford @ Kent State (ESPN+)

12:45: Western Kentucky @ Georgia (SEC): Georgia!

1:00:

  • Holy Cross @ Miami (ESPN+)
  • Colgate @ Central Michigan (ESPN+)
  • Tennessee-Martin @ West Virginia (ESPN+)

2:00: Stony Brook @ Ball State (ESPN+)

3:30:

  • Arizona @ Brigham Young (FOX): BYU?
  • Alabama @ Kentucky (ABC): Bama!
  • Mississippi State @ Minnesota (CBS): This is a fun inter-sectional game that features two teams with a fair number of question marks. I’ll still give a slight edge to the Bulldogs.
  • Rice @ Notre Dame (NBC): Irish!
  • Central Florida @ Pittsburgh (ESPN2): Pitt!
  • Duke @ Illinois (FS1): Illinois!
  • Texas-San Antonio @ Texas State (“I-35 Rivalry”; The CW): UTSA?
  • Eastern Michigan @ Michigan State (BTN): Sparty!
  • Utah State @ Washington (BTN): UDub!
  • California @ Syracuse (ACCN): Cal?
  • Maryland @ Connecticut (CBSS): Terps!
  • Weber State @ Colorado (ESPN+)
  • Louisiana-Monroe @ Alabama-Birmingham (ESPN+)
  • Robert Morris @ Akron (ESPN+)
  • Central Connecticut @ Toledo (ESPN+)
  • Sacred Heart @ Massachusetts (ESPN+)
  • Wagner @ James Madison (ESPN+)

3:45: Nevada-Las Vegas @ North Texas (ESPNU): UNLV?

4:00:

  • California-Davis @ Southern Methodist (ACCNX)
  • Alabama State @ Troy (ESPN+)
  • Northern Colorado @ Wyoming (MWN)

4:15: Delaware @ Vanderbilt (SEC): Vandy!

5:30: Campbell @ Florida (SEC+)

6:00:

  • Memphis @ Boise State (USA): This is a play-off eliminator, most likely. I still like Boise.
  • Buffalo @ Florida International (ESPN+)
  • Garnder-Webb @ Liberty (ESPN+)
  • Jacksonville State @ Ohio (ESPN+)

6:30: Monmouth @ Western Michigan (ESPN+)

7:00:

  • Tennessee @ Georgia Tech (ESPN): Unfortunately, I’m extremely short on time to put my full thoughts to the screen here. Suffice it to say, an offensive line performance like last week’s (where they effectively disappeared after the first drive) will not get it done here. I hope we can figure something out, or embarrassment looms.
  • Bowling Green @ Nebraska (FS1): Huskers!
  • Southern Utah @ Colorado (CBSS)
  • Towson @ South Carolina (SEC+)
  • Lindenwood @ Missouri State (ESPN+)
  • Western Carolina @ Cincinnati (ESPN+)
  • Middle Tennessee State @ Marshall (ESPN+)
  • Tulsa @ Sam Houston State (ESPN+)
  • Southern @ Houston (ESPN+)
  • Georgia State @ Kennesaw State (ESPN+)
  • South Alabama @ Tulane (ESPN+)
  • West Georgia @ Arkansas State (ESPN+)
  • Illinois State @ Northern Illinois (MWN)

7:15:

  • San Diego State @ California-Los Angeles (BTN): This shouldn’t be close, but it might be? UCLA just leaned against Cal until they broke, but SDSU’s defense will definitely be more resolute.
  • Western Illinois @ Wisconsin (BTN)

7:30:

  • Iowa State @ Iowa (“¡El Assico!”; NBC): As usual, throw out anything you think you know about these teams because this is the rare rivalry where anything actually could happen. I still like Iowa at home, but… it’s worth keeping an eye on.
  • Texas Tech @ Oregon State (CBS): Red Raiders!
  • Ohio State @ Texas (ABC): I just don’t believe in Arch yet. I have the Buckeyes here.
  • Navy @ Florida Atlantic (ESPNU): Navy!
  • Georgia Southern @ Clemson (ACCN): Clemson?
  • Louisiana Tech @ Louisiana State (SEC+)
  • Fordham @ Coastal Carolina (ESPN+)

7:45:

  • Charlotte @ Mississippi (ESPN2): Mississippi!
  • Southern Mississippi @ Auburn (SEC): Auburn!

8:00:

  • Grambling State @ Texas Christian (ESPN+)
  • Prairie View A&M @ Baylor (ESPN+)

9:00:

  • California Polytechnic @ San Jose State (NBCBA/MWN)
  • Texas Southern @ Texas-El Paso (MWN)

10:00: North Dakota State @ Air Force (FS1): Life comes at you fast, Bison. That said, I think they’ll be fine here?

10:15: Arkansas @ Utah (ESPN): Utes!

10:30:

  • Montana State @ Nevada (The CW)
  • Sacramento State @ Fresno State (CBSS): Fresno!

11:00: Louisiana @ Southern California (BTN): USC!

11:59: New Mexico State @ Hawaii (MWN)

 

This Weekend in College Football: Week 1

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Saturday

Noon:

  • East Carolina @ Alabama (ABC): As has been noted in many other spaces, this isn’t the most action-packed Week 1. There’s a lot of games like this with huge point spreads and not much to talk about. I guess it’s a good weekend for me to be at PAX. Also, Bama by a lot.
  • North Texas @ Indiana (FOX): Indiana is still the reigning, undefeated national champion. And they’ll still be undefeated after this one.
  • Oregon State @ Houston (ESPN): This might be the best game in this timeslot? Houston always has expectations, but Oregon State might be able to quash them. I still like the Cougs, but if there’s a single-score game here, it’ll be this one, or…
  • Ohio @ Nebraska (FS1): Well, not this one. (Corn by a lot.)
  • Coastal Carolina @ West Virginia (TNT): Or this one. (Neers by a lot.)
  • Liberty @ James Madison (ESPNU): … but this one! It pains me to recommend watching a Liberty game, but as one of the richest teams on the low end of the “group of” they certainly should have the resources to hang with JMU. I still like the Monarchs, though.
  • New Hampshire @ Syracuse (ACCN)
  • Bryant @ Army (CBSS)
  • Lafayette @ Connecticut (Stream)
  • Tarleton @ Bowling Green (ESPN+)

12:30:

  • Miami @ Pittsburgh (The CW): No, that Miami will be flying back from Palo Alto during this game. Speaking of unusually well resourced G6 teams, the Redhawks are actually not doing bad by any standard, much less for the MAC. Still hard seeing them beat Pitt, but they could certainly make things uncomfortable.
  • Ball State @ Ohio State (BTN): Buckeyes by a lot.

12:45: Kent State @ South Carolina (SEC): Shane Beamer is a coach that has near-universal agreement as being on the proverbial hot seat entering the season. This game will not get him fired.

1:00:

  • Youngstown State @ Kentucky (SEC+)
  • Duquesne @ Air Force (MWN)

2:00:

  • Southeast Missouri State @ Iowa State (ESPN+)
  • Rhode Island @ Temple (ESPN+)

3:00: Tennessee State @ Georgia (SEC+)

3:30:

  • Boston College @ Cincinnati (FOX): BC is in the running to be one of the worse P4 teams this season, and while Cincy probably won’t be very good, they can knock off BC at home.
  • Baylor vs. Auburn (Aflac Kickoff Game @ Atlanta, GA; ABC): It’s a cliche at this point in the season, but these teams have a lot more questions than answers right now. This is a coin flip for me, and I’m going with Auburn.
  • Boise State @ Oregon (CBS): I want to believe that there’s still a reality where Boise can take one of the big boys of the sport to the wire, but… this Oregon team is loaded. Like, one of the 3-5 teams that can plausibly win the national title loaded. But I still believe…
  • Texas State @ Texas (ESPN): This will be a “Good Arch” game.
  • Marshall @ Pennsylvania State (FS1): I really don’t want to talk about Penn State right now, so I won’t. They’ll win this one.
  • Tulane @ Duke (ACCN): This is a game where it’s very plausible that a well resourced G6 team can knock off a P4, and I think it’s actually kind of likely
  • Towson @ Navy (CBSS)
  • Fordham @ North Dakota State (MWN)
  • Furman @ Tennessee (SEC+)
  • Texas-Rio Grande Valley @ Texas-San Antonio (ESPN+)
  • Maine @ Appalachian State (ESPN+)
  • The Citadel @ Charlotte (ESPN+)

3:45: Oklahoma State @ Tulsa (ESPNU): Oklahoma State essentially did a wholesale import of last season’s best offense from Texas State up to Stillwater, and this early (but short) road trip will be the first proof of concept for them.

4:15:

  • Northern Illinois @ Iowa (BTN): Northern Illinois never really fit in the MAC, so they left for… the Mountain West. Sure. It’ll be interesting to see if Iowa does the offense thing again this year, but they’ll win this game regardless.
  • North Alabama @ Arkansas (SEC)

5:00: Alcorn State @ Southern Mississippi (ESPN+)

6:00:

  • Wyoming @ Colorado State (“Border War”; USA): The rules for whether or not I talk about a particular game are this: 1) It has to be between two FBS opponents and 2) it has to be available on a traditional television network. So there’s going to be some Mountain West games on USA this season, so take note. As for this game, I… didn’t realize or forgot it’s a rivalry game. There’s a trophy (the Bronze Boot) and everything! So this should be fun, but I’m slightly leaning toward the Pokes.
  • Norfolk State @ Old Dominion (ESPN+)

7:00:

  • Missouri State @ Texas A&M (ESPN): Aggies by a lot.
  • Abilene Christian @ Texas State (FS1)
  • Idaho State @ Utah State (CBSS)
  • Austin Peay @ Vanderbilt (SEC+)
  • Sam Houston State @ Troy (ESPN+)
  • Arkansas State @ Memphis (ESPN+)
  • Florida International @ South Florida (ESPN+)
  • Nicholls State @ Kansas State (ESPN+)
  • Southeastern Louisiana @ South Alabama (ESPN+)
  • Houston Christian @ Rice (ESPN+)
  • Eastern Kentucky @ Jacksonville State (ESPN+)
  • Murray State @ Middle Tennessee State (ESPN+)
  • Charleston Southern @ Georgia Southern (ESPN+)

7:30:

  • Clemson @ Louisiana State (ABC): The game of the day! LSU, of course, has been in the news for all the wrong reasons as of late. Clemson has mostly flown under the radar after not quite meeting their elevated expectations the past couple of years. The chances of a “lil ole Clemson” type game feel very high. It’s fair that LSU is favored for a home night game, but I just can’t shake Clemson just cutting through all the hype and putting a wet blanket on Lane Kiffin’s debut.
  • Western Michigan @ Michigan (NBC): Michigan by a lot.
  • Louisiana-Monroe @ Mississippi State (ESPNU): Miss State, by a medium amount.
  • Virginia Military @ Virginia Tech (ACCN)
  • Northwestern State @ Louisiana Tech (ESPN+)

7:45: Florida Atlantic @ Florida (SEC): Don’t let the Florida fans fool you, they’ll be fine here.

8:00:

  • South Dakota State @ Northwestern (BTN)
  • Hampton @ Maryland (BTN)
  • Utah Tech @ Brigham Young (ESPN+)
  • Lamar @ Louisiana (ESPN+)

9:00: Mercyhurst @ New Mexico State (ESPN+)

9:30:

  • Portland State @ San Diego State (USA)
  • Northern Arizona @ Arizona (ESPN+)

10:00:

  • Central Michigan @ New Mexico (FS1): Hey, here’s a fun cross-sectional game! I like the Lobos at home, but definitely keep on eye on this one.
  • Nevada-Las Vegas @ Hawaii (The CW): Hawaii probably should’ve beat Stanford last week. They had a late lead and everything, but couldn’t hold on. UNLV comes in with some pretty hefty expectations and should win, but it’s not a given.
  • Mississippi Valley State @ Sacramento State (ESPN+)
  • Morgan State @ Arizona State (ESPN+)

10:30:

  • California-Los Angeles @ California (ESPN): It’s good to see this game back on the schedule, and with a whole new operation in Westwood, I like JKS and company to open with a win in Berkeley.
  • Western Kentucky @ Nevada (CBSS): Probably not as much fun as Western Michigan-New Mexico, but this could still be fun. Unfortunately, I don’t think Nevada is very good, so this should be sorta straightforward for the Hilltoppers.

Sunday

4:00: Washington State @ Washington (“Apple Cup”; NBC): The Apple Cup is back, once again! Unfortunately, I’m not sure I have much hope for Wazzu.

7:30:

  • Louisville vs. Mississippi (Music City Kickoff @ Nashville, TN; ABC): The easy assumption for this game is that Lane took most of the good players to Baton Rouge. But that’s for a reason, and Louisville has the talent to hang with the Rebels for sure. I’ll even pick them here.
  • Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame (@Green Bay, WI; NBC): Luke Fickell is another coach on the preseason hot seat, and I’m not sure this game is going to do much to get him off of it.

Monday

7:30: Southern Methodist @ Florida State (ESPN): Speaking of coaches on the hot seat and bad vibes, Mike Norvell could really use a win here. And similarly to Fickell, I don’t think he’s going to get it. (Though at least the Noles, on paper, stand a chance in this game.)

 

This Weekend in College Football: Week 0

Welcome back.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon: North Carolina vs. Texas Christian (Aer Lingus Classic @ Dublin, Ireland; ESPN): Year 2 of the Bill Bellichick era at Carolina is here, and I’m sure Tar Heel fans are more than ready to talk about actual football. The problem is that there’s not a lot to indicate that this won’t be much different than last season’s opening debacle in Chapel Hill, even if this is an ocean away.

3:00: San Jose State @ Southern California (NBC): Hey, so you’ve probably at least heard that there’s a movie called The Odyssey out, right? (I saw it, it’s great.) And you’re probably aware that it’s based on a 2,000 year old epic poem? So you probably have had multiple opportunities to learn the broad strokes of the Trojan War, yeah?
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So if you aren’t face palming yet, here’s why you should. The Trojans, somewhat famously, are the losers of the Trojan War, the framing conflict of the story. And they lose to the Greeks, who trick them using a giant wooden horse filled with their dudes. And one of the major Greek factions? The Spartans! As in, the San Jose State Spartans! Now, look, USC are going to be massive favorites here, but if they field another vintage Lincoln Riley defense and let SJSU hang around too long in this one, some serious questions are going to be asked.

3:30: North Carolina State @ Virginia (ESPN): Yes, this one does count as an ACC game (though if I recall correctly his was originally scheduled as a non-conference game but with the ACC (mostly) going to a 9 game conference schedule they just rolled it in). All that said, both teams have massive questions, but I like NC State here. Mostly. Probably.

5:30: Jacksonville State @ North Dakota State (CBSS): The Fargodome gets its first FBS game early, and the thing is, they’re probably going to win! The usual issue for the FCS to FBS transition is depth, but NDSU has been so good for so long that if there were a team that felt like it was going to make the transition with verve, it’d be them.

7:00:

  • New Mexico State @ Florida State (The CW): Surely, Mike Norvell can handle this one.
  • Hawaii @ Stanford (ACCN): Stanford is going to be bad this year, as in bad enough that I think Hawaii has a fairly good shot to win this one.

10:00: Memphis @ Nevada-Las Vegas (FOX): This could well be the G6 vs. G6 game of the year. Both of these schools see themselves as playoff contenders, but I think UNLV is better. We’ll find out tomorrow(!) night.

 

Bowl Games 2025: Happy New Year!

I just got the bowl page updated. While I don’t have tracking for my correct vs. incorrect picks yet, it at least has the correct Orange Bowl and shows all of my predictions.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Thursday, January 1
12:00: Texas Tech (#4) vs. Oregon (#5) (Orange Bowl @ Miami Gardens, FL; ESPN): This is probably the most intriguing of all the playoff matchups. In some ways, you’d probably expect that from the 4 vs. 5 game, but still. The dynamics in play are “new money” versus “even newer money”, as Texas Tech was the most aggressive team in the transfer portal last year, with this the intended result. This will be, by far, the stiffest test the Red Raiders have faced on both sides of the ball. That said, Oregon lost their only game this year when the faced a team of a similar caliber (Indiana), so those challenges also apply to the Ducks. Suffice it to say, this game is pretty much a coin flip, and I’m going to go with Texas Tech.
SP+ line: TTU by 2.5
Vegas line: TTU by 1.5
Watchability tier: IV
Previous meetings: Just three. The first was a 28-13 Oregon win in 1991, and the most recent was… two years ago, a 38-30 Ducks win. Oregon is 3-0 overall.
Last bowl game: TTU has a five season streak, dating to a 34-7 win over Mississippi State in the 2021 Liberty Bowl. Last season they lost 39-26 to Arkansas in the Liberty Bowl. A couple of Saturdays ago, Oregon beat James Madison 51-34 to advance.
Announcers: Joe Tessitore, Jesse Palmer, Katie George, and Stormy Buonantony

4:00: Indiana (#1) vs. Alabama (#9) (Rose Bowl @ Pasadena, CA; ESPN): This game shouldn’t be close. Indiana is clearly the best team in the country, and Bama arguably shouldn’t even be in the playoff. But I have the nagging feeling that somehow, Bama will finally play offense for the first time in two months and finally have a version of Ty Simpson that looks like he’s played quarterback before. It might rain at the Rose Bowl (or, at least, the parade) and that could also equalize things. That said, the Hoosiers get it done on both sides of the ball, and they should be able to handle business. Hopefully.
SP+ line: Hoosiers by 13.1
Vegas line: Hoosiers by 7
Watchability tier: IV
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: Indiana loast 27-17 to Notre Dame in the first round of last season’s playoff. To get here, Bama got revenge on Oklahoma 34-24.
Announcers: Chris Folwer, Kirk Herbstret, Holly Rowe, and Kris Budden

8:00: Georgia (#3) vs. Mississippi (#6) (Sugar Bowl @ New Orleans, LA; ESPN): I think this is where the fun stops for the Rebels, and the real cleanup in the post-Kiffin era truly begins. I suppose the “it’s hard to beat a team twice” gods may intervene here, but overall I don’t see a path forward for Mississippi.
SP+ line: uga by 0.3
Vegas line: uga by 7
Watchability tier: IV
Previous meetings: As is usual with the Mississippi schools and SEC history, there’s probably not as many meetings between these teams as you’d expect. They first met in 1940, a 28-14 Mississippi win. They met just three more times in the 1940’s and just once in the 1950’s. With Georgia Tech and Tulane leaving in 1963 and 1965, they began to play more often in the 10-team SEC, playing every year from 1966 through 2002. Georgia feasted during that time, piling up wins against mostly hapless Rebel teams to a 34-14-1 overall record, including the most recent 43-35 Georgia win in Athens back in October.
Last bowl game: Unfortunately, Georgia owns the longest streak of postseason appearances, dating to a 33-6 win over Wisconsin in the 1997-98 Outback Bowl. Last season in the playoff, Georgia was one of the teams that got the bye and then promptly fell on their face, losing 23-10 in the Sugar Bowl quarterfinal. The Rebels took care of business 41-10 over Tulane in the first round to get here.
Announcers: Sean McDonough, Greg McElroy, Molly McGrath, and Laura Rutledge

Friday, January 2
1:00: Rice vs. Texas State (Armed Forces Bowl @ Fort Worth, TX; ESPN): It’s a bowl game, so anything could happen, but this should be the Bobcats all the way.
SP+ line: TxSt by 14.5
Vegas line: TxSt by 11.5
Watchability tier: I
Previous meetings: Just one, at least with teams being considered “top” level teams: a 45-21 Texas State win in the 2023 First Responder Bowl.
Last bowl game: This is Rice’s first postseason appearance since the 2023 First Responder Bowl, a 45-21 loss to Texas State. For Texas state, they’re presumably happy to playing somewhere else in the Metroplex after also beat North Texas in last season’s First Responder Bowl, 30-28.
Announcers: Lowell Galindo, Aaron Murray, and Lauren Sisler

4:30: Navy vs. Cincinnati (Liberty Bowl @ Memphis, TN; ESPN): This one could be fun. Cincy comes in off a solid-but-not-great season, and any game involving the service academies can be interesting. I like Cincy here but keep an eye on it.
SP+ line: Cincy by 2
Vegas line: Navy by 6.5
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: These teams met for the first time in 1956, a 13-7 Navy win. Since then, they played somewhat regularly as members of the American from 2017-2022, a period dominated by Cincy. Overall the Bearcats have a 3-2 record.
Last bowl game: Last season, Navy beat Oklahoma 21-20 in the Armed Forces Bowl. For Cincinnati, this is their first postseason appearance since a 24-7 win over Louisville in the 2022 Fenway Bowl.
Announcers: TV: Mike Monaco, Kirk Morrison, and Dawn Davenport

8:00: Southern Methodist vs. Arizona (Holiday Bowl @ San Diego, CA; FOX): This game should be relatively even. SMU, of course, was last seen suffering a brutal loss in Berkeley. Arizona had a relatively good year and is coming off a Territorial Cup win. I’ve got SMU, but I expect it to be close.
SP+ line: Zona by 0.3
Vegas line: Zona by 2.5
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: Just twice, and considering these are one-off regular season games, it’s kind of surprising. The first was a 29-7 SMU win in 1938, and the other was a 28-6 Arizona win in 1985.
Last bowl game: SMU would have a seven game bowl streak dating to the 2019 Boca Raton bowl, but skipped 2020 and the 2021 Fenway Bowl was canceled. Last season they lost 38-10 to Penn State in the opening round of the playoff. This is Arizona’s first bowl game since a 38-24 win over Oklahoma in the 2023 Alamo Bowl.
Announcers: Gus Johnson and Joel Klatt

8:00: Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State (Mayo Bowl @ Charlotte, NC; ESPN): While I cover the playoff games like bowl games, this is last true exhibition on this list. And maybe appropriately, this game doesn’t have a lot of juice. Wake Forest is… Wake Forest, and Miss State is a 5-7 SEC team in a bowl season that’s seen the non-elite tiers of the SEC really get exposed so far.  I like Wake in this one, but honest I just hope it’s a decent game.
SP+ line: Wake by 0.6
Vegas line: MissSt by 3.5
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: Just once, a 23-17 Miss State win in the 2011 Music City Bowl.
Last bowl game: Wake’s last postseason appearance was a 27-17 win over Mizzou in the 2022 Gasparilla Bowl. Similarly, this is the first postseason game for the Bulldogs since a 19-10 win over Illinois in the 2022-23 ReliaQuest Bowl.
Announcers: Anish Shroff, Andre Ware, and Paul Carcaterra

Sunday, January 4
8:00: Wisconsin-River Falls vs. North Central (“Stagg Bowl”; NCAA Division III National Championship Game @ Canton, OH; ESPN)

Monday, January 5
7:30: Illinois State vs. Montana State (NCAA Division I National Championship Game @ Nashville, TN; ESPN)