This Weekend in College Football: Week 1

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Saturday

Noon:

  • Syracuse vs. Tennessee (@Atlanta, GA; ABC): This game is first on the list, but that’s more of a reflection of “ABC” coming first in alphabetical order than the importance of this game. The Vols should roll.
  • Texas @ Ohio State (FOX): Whoa nellie! In what almost has to be the biggest Week 1 game in the recent history of college football (in that, you wouldn’t be crazy to pencil these teams in for the playoff final) both teams actually enter with a lot of questions. The hype, of course, centers around new Texas starter Arch Manning. (You may have heard of him and his famous uncles and grandfather.) Ohio State also has a new quarterback: Julian Sayin. (I will try to refrain from “sayin'” jokes. Promise.) Unlike the Longhorns, Ohio State has a proven quantity in Jeremiah Smith, and at any rate the Buckeyes seem to produce wide receivers as though they grow on the trees in central Ohio.
    So any rate, who’s going to win this game? I don’t know, y’all. This should be a hell of a game, I can say that for sure. I’ll take the Buckeyes at home.
  • Mississippi State @ Southern Mississippi (ESPN): Remember that thing last winter were Marshall didn’t have a coach and enough players to field a team for a bowl game? Yeah, so a lot of them wound up in Hattiesburg, and the visiting Bulldogs are going to see what they’re made of. I mean, Marshall was pretty good last year, but I Miss State isn’t the sort of bad that really makes me think they’re going to drop this.
  • Ball State @ Purdue (BTN): Meanwhile, I would definitely take Marshall, er, Southern Miss over Purdue, which a team that will be contending with Stanford for most of this season for the title of “worst team in the Power 4”. Fortunately for the Boilermakers, they get Ball State week 1, so their fate is somewhat spared.
  • Florida Atlantic @ Maryland (BTN): The Terps should be fine here.
  • Northwestern @ Tulane (ESPNU): Oh, right, add Northwestern to that list with Purdue and Stanford. I completely favor Tulane here.
  • Duquense @ Pittsburgh (ACCN)
  • Virginia Military @ Navy (CBSS)
  • Merrimack @ Kent State (ESPN+)

12:45: Toledo @ Kentucky (SEC): Hugh Freeze’s seat is pretty hot, but it’s not looking good for ol’ Mark Stoops in Lexington. They should still win this one, but Toledo is consistently the MAC’s friskiest (and most talented) team and could well give them more than just a scare.

2:00:

  • Fordham @ Boston College (ACCNX/ESPN+)
  • Robert Morris @ West Virginia (ESPN+)

2:30: Old Dominion @ Indiana (FS1)

3:00: Eastern Kentucky @ Louisville (ACCN)

3:30:

  • Nevada @ Pennsylvania State (CBS): My grand prediction for the 2025 regular season is that James Franklin will finally get over the hump and beat Ohio State, and then drop one of their remaining regular season games in November. Suffice it to say, the Nittany Lions have nothing to worry about here.
  • South Dakota @ Iowa State (FOX)
  • Alabama @ Florida State (ABC): Florida State is probably going to win more games this year, heck, I’ll say that they’ll even get above 0.500. But… they’re not going to win this one.
  • Marshall @ Georgia (ESPN): This is certainly a way to ease into the season.
  • Bucknell @ Air Force (CBSS)
  • Holy Cross @ Northern Illinois (ESPN+)
  • Temple @ Massachusetts (ESPN+)

4:00:

  • Montana State @ Oregon (BTN): Hey, remember that thing Oregon did last season where they let Idaho hang out for an uncomfortably long time? Well, it could happen again here.
  • Maine @ Liberty (ESPN+)

4:30: Tennessee-Chattanooga @ Memphis (ESPN+)

6:00:

  • UAlbany @ Iowa (FS1)
  • Coastal Carolina @ Virginia (ACCN): I mean, UVA should be a heavy favorite here, but, woof. I can’t predict the upset but I wouldn’t be surprised.
  • Illinois State @ Oklahoma (ESPN+)
  • Weber State @ James Madison (ESPN+)

7:00:

  • Texas-San Antonio @ Texas A&M (ESPN): You know UTSA will be up for this one, but I don’t think it’ll matter much.
  • Long Island @ Florida (ESPN+)
  • Charleston Southern @ Vanderbilt (ESPN+)
  • Southeast Missouri State @ Arkansas State (ESPN+)
  • Morgan State @ South Alabama (ESPN+)
  • Nicholls State @ Troy (ESPN+)
  • Austin Peay @ Middle Tennessee State (ESPN+)
  • North Alabama @ Western Kentucky (ESPN+)
  • North Dakota @ Kansas State (ESPN+)

7:30:

  • New Mexico @ Michigan (NBC): Michigan has a ton of questions, but not a lot will be asked of them here.
  • Louisiana State @ Clemson (ABC): One of the other huge games of the day. For LSU, the question is whether Brian Kelly will finally figure it out. For Clemson, the question is whether Dabo has finally put together a competitive roster in the post-NIL world. For my money, I think the latter is more likely.
  • Missouri State @ Southern California (BTN)
  • Texas-El Paso @ Utah State (CBSS): What the heck, let’s go Miners.
  • Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Texas Tech (ESPN+)
  • Southeastern Louisiana @ Louisiana Tech (ESPN+)

7:45: Georgia State @ Mississippi (SEC): This will be a walk over for the Fightin’ Kiffins.

8:00:

  • Portland State @ Brigham Young (ESPN+)
  • Rice @ Louisiana (ESPN+)
  • Lamar @ North Texas (ESPN+)
  • Eastern Michigan @ Texas State (ESPN+)
  • Abilene Christian @ Tulsa (ESPN+)

9:00:

  • East Texas A&M @ Southern Methodist (ACCN)
  • Bryant @ New Mexico State (ESPN+)

9:30: Georgia Southern @ Fresno State (FS1): We love to see this sort of intersectional game, that’s what the early part of the season is about. I like Fresno here.

10:00:

  • Idaho @ Washington State (The CW)
  • Northern Arizona @ Arizona State (ESPN+)
  • California-Davis @ Utah Tech (ESPN+)

10:30:

  • California @ Oregon State (ESPN): Cal lost all of their running backs, and then some, to the portal. Oregon State has had a year to recover, so I like them in one of the two Pac-12 After Dark revivals here.
  • Hawaii @ Arizona (TNT): Hawaii beat Stanford last week, yeah, but Zona all the way here.

11:00:

  • Utah @ California-Los Angeles (FOX): There are a ton of question marks for both teams (hey, what else is new in Week 1?) but I tend to prefer the “Kyle Whittingham’s Last Ride” narrative, so let’s go with that.
  • Colorado State @ Washington (BTN): The Huskies shouldn’t have any issues with this one.

Sunday

3:00: South Carolina vs. Virginia Tech (@Atlanta, GA; ESPN): There’s questions a-plenty here, but they’re all almost of the Hokies. Such as: will Brent Pry still be the coach in November? Not a great start.

7:30: Notre Dame @ Miami (ABC): I’m bullish on the Irish this year, and while I’d prefer Mario save the annual Clock Commander incident for later in the season, well, there’s no time like the present.

Monday

8:00: Texas Christian @ North Carolina (ESPN): And finally, we get to… whatever the heck is going on here. I won’t be the first person to note that TCU seems to have a knack for gimmick openers (as they were also Coach Prime’s first matchup). Unlike that time, though, I don’t think they lose this one. I just have a feeling something is going to wrong for Belichick that just would never happen in the NFL and he, and his staff of mostly lackeys, won’t know what to do.

 

 

 

This Week in College Football: Week 1

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Thursday

5:30: Boise State @ South Florida (ESPN): It’s starting to feel real. With the Braves pretty thoroughly Out of It, I’ve (yes, I’m switching back to first person here, deal with it) been looking forward to the start of the season. Of course, that’s also because one of the biggest games of the weekend also involves the Jackets. Anyway, in this one, good on USF for scheduling this Boise but boy howdy I do not like their chances.

6:00:

  • Ohio @ Rutgers (BTN): Someday, Rutgers is going to have to figure out how literally anyone else other than Greg Schiano can make Rutgers even competent. Fortunately for the Scarlet Knights, that hasn’t happened yet.
  • Lafayette @ Bowling Green (ESPN+)

7:00:

  • East Carolina @ North Carolina State (ACCN): This is a low-key sorta rivalry, in that ECU absolutely hates the Tobacco Road schools. I don’t like their chances to win, but in terms of “game most likely to feature a brawl” this weekend, this is almost certainly #1.
  • Delaware State @ Delaware (ESPN+)
  • Saint Francis @ Louisiana-Monroe (ESPN+)
  • Wyoming @ Akron (ESPN+)
  • Jacksonville State @ Central Florida (ESPN+)

7:30:

  • Central Arkansas @ Missouri (SEC)
  • Elon @ Duke (ACCNX/ESPN+)
  • Tennessee-Martin @ Oklahoma State (ESPN+)

8:00:

  • Buffalo @ Minnesota (FS1): Okay, Thursday doesn’t have a lot of intrigue so far. Let’s see what we have next…
  • Stephen F. Austin @ Houston (ESPN+)
  • Alabama State @ Alabama-Birmingham (ESPN+)

9:00:

  • Nebraska vs. Cincinnati (@Kansas City, MO): Oh hey there! Nebraska, are you feeling good about this season? Well, you had better hold serve in a nominal neutral site game (but will totally be 90% Cornhuskers) against a Bearcats team that figures to be spicy.
  • Miami @ Wisconsin (BTN): On Wisconsin, and on to Friday.

Friday

6:00: Tarleton State @ Army (CBSS)

7:00:

  • Western Michigan @ Michigan State (FS1): This is definitely a MAC vs. B1G game that is happening.
  • Appalachian State vs. Charlotte (@Charlotte, NC; ESPNU): It’s a little head-scratching that Charlotte is playing this game in the Panthers’ stadium and not next week’s game against UNC. Either way, the 49ers will not be favored in either contest.
  • Kennesaw State @ Wake Forest (ACCN): It’s been a tough road so far in FBS for Kennesaw, and it’s going to be tough once against in 2025.
  • Bethune-Cookman @ Florida International (ESPN+)

7:30:

  • Western Illinois @ Illinois (Peacock)
  • Wagner @ Kansas (ESPN+)

8:00:

  • Auburn @ Baylor (FOX): There may be no hotter seat in college football at the start of 2025 than the one on the Plains. And the reason isn’t so much that Auburn doesn’t have talent (though they’ve been weirdly bad at QB as of late), it’s more that they don’t play well. This is a bit of a statement game for both teams, but one gets the feeling it’s going to be a bit bigger of a deal for the Tigers. I like the Bears.
  • Georgia Tech @ Colorado (ESPN): Whoo boy. It’s been a minute since we came into a season with what I would call “a reasonable amount of hype”. This isn’t a 2015-style situation where we’re coming in ranked, but I would say the consensus is that we’re favored in this one. We certainly have a lot less roster turnover than Colorado, who is coming into the season down their two (well, three, really, depending on how you count Travis Hunter) most important players and the raft of transfers that has so far marked Coach Prime’s tenure. Is this the year the Buffs are finally fielding Power 4-quality offensive and defensive lines? Maybe! But also, maybe not! We’re going to find real quick on Friday night who is moving who in the trenches, that I feel pretty good about saying.

9:00: Nevada-Las Vegas @ Sam Houston State (CBSS): I don’t know if UNLV is good, but I like them over SHSU.

10:30: Central Michigan @ San Jose State (FS1): It’s year two for Coach Ken in Silicon Valley, and honestly I think they’re going to be okay? This one is certainly manageable for them.

Rating the 2025 Non-Conference Slate

About the Ratings

Each offseason, my brother and I rate every Power 5 team on the basis of how excited you’d be to see that team on your non-conference schedule. The possible ratings are “no rating”, 0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, and 1. “1” is the best, as evidenced by the list of 22 teams that earned a 1 this year: Alabama, Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, LSU, Miami, Michigan, Mississippi (new for 2025), North Carolina (new for 2025), Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oregon, Penn State, Southern Cal (new for 2025), Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Washington, and Wisconsin.

How does each conference fare in terms of the ratings? Well, let’s see:

  1. SEC (0.70 average rating)
  2. Big Ten (0.55)
  3. ACC (0.38)
  4. Big 12 (0.375)

That’s mostly what you’d expect, except for maybe the ACC there. At any rate, let’s dive right into the teams. (FCS teams are in italics.)

Continue reading

This Weekend in College Football: Week 0

Welcome to the traditional opener before the opener. The usual out-of-conference scheduling review is nearly ready and will go up early next week. In the meantime, enjoy this this curated selection of pre-Week 1 games.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon: Iowa State vs. Kansas State (“Farmageddon” @ Dublin, Ireland; ESPN): We’re starting off with a probable banger. Naturally, we enjoyed last year’s Ireland game, but as far as exporting a rivalry goes I’m not sure they could’ve done much better. That said, I like K-State a lot here.

6:30: Fresno State @ Kansas (FOX): The Sunflower State is well represented in Week 0, with KU hosting the usually frisky Bulldogs. It’ll be interesting to see if KU and QB Jalon Daniels have their mojo back after a disappointing, injury filled 2024. If they do, then this one sets up pretty good for KU.

7:00: Sam Houston State @ Western Kentucky (CBSS): The earlier games are likely to be a lot more fun than the later games. Unfortunately here WKU is still one of the better CUSA teams and SHSU is… not.

7:30: Stanford @ Hawaii (CBS): Stanford is likely to be the worst P4 team this season (it’s a close competition with Northwestern), so this figures to be their “bowl game” essentially. Also, Hawaii is also kinda turbo-bad, so it may also be the Cardinal’s best chance at a win.

Bowl Games 2024: Epilogue

And that’s that.

It’s hard to call the inaugural 12-team playoff anything but a success. Maybe it’s a tad odd all of the top-four bye teams lost, but overall it was a ton of fun to watch. And once again, the Ohio State Buckeyes take advantage of a new playoff format to win a national title they otherwise wouldn’t have qualified for.

I finished with a 27-19 record in the bowl games, and the overall stats have been updated. I’ve been at this a long time. I will personally turn 40 years old soon, and it’s hard not to get reflective. I’ve been predicting bowl games since I was 14 and writing this site since I was 21. My life has changed tremendously since then (especially in the past couple of years). Sports have been a constant. I’m writing this during the Swiatek-Keys semi-final in the Australian Open (my favorite tennis tournament and one that I hope to attend someday). Last summer I finally attended an Olympics, visiting Lyon, Saint-Etienne, and Marseilles to see our national soccer teams.

I tend to think of the year broken up by whatever sport is on. January through the Super Bowl is playoff football, tennis, college basketball (at least in years where Tech is good, which, well, isn’t this year). March is… Madness. I love baseball, but I don’t start to get excited until Opening Day. Not much marks the time for me like a baseball season’s phases: the opening months before Memorial Day (the traditional mark where I start paying attention to the standings), the beginning of summer to the All-Star break, the dog days of August. College football is important, but in the current Braves era I don’t really get completely in until sometime in October. Fall Saturdays are huge for me, and though in recent years I’ve found it more difficult to just block a whole day (dang friends and hobbies) chances are my phone is streaming a game. (Obviously, Tech is still appointment viewing for me. It does help we’re a lot more fun to watch these days, I have to admit.)

Last season I wrapped up with a short paragraph about the change in the sport. Change it did. West Coast teams in the Big Ten may never not be weird. I’m joking a lot less than I’d care to admit when I say things like “Maryland is obviously still in the ACC”, and those four teams fit in much less well than the Terps. I may never get over Washington State and Oregon State getting screwed. And none of this really even approaches the Bay Area schools and SMU in the ACC, though at least we did get #CalTwitter exposed to a nationwide audience. (Also Cal-Miami may be one of the games of the year, even if it wasn’t the preferred outcome.)

There were good things, too. The Arizona schools being in the Big 12 feels spiritually correct, and Colorado re-joining most of their former Big 8/12 brethren is obviously correct. While too many rivalries are in peril, the Holy Way being a yearly game again is correct. The playoff, even with the whining about the byes and the first round games, was fantastic.

As usual, things will be slower around here these parts for next, oh, seven months or so. But look for me around August 23rd, as we’ll have at least two potential bangers out of Stanford at Hawaii, Fresno State at Kansas, and, oh yeah, Farmageddon live from Dublin, Ireland. See you then.