Monthly Archives: November 2023

Bowl Predictions 2023: Week 3

They’re here!

This week I was only 7 teams short thanks to some upsets, but regardless we’re going to need to a lot more to get to the number we need.

As promised, here’s some insight into my thought process:

  • I always start with the CFP and the New Year’s Six bowl games. I expect Michigan, Georgia, Oregon, Florida State, and Texas to win out. This means someone will be left out. It may be ideal for Texas to get Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game to see if they can avenge their Red River loss, otherwise I think Oregon will have an edge over them.
  • The Group of Five New Year’s Six team is much less certain this year. Tulane may have the insight track to make it two in a row after Air Force has collapsed the past two weeks.
  • Thanks to the timing of their losses, Missouri has likely jumped Ole Miss for the third New Year’s Six spot from the SEC.
  • The ESPN Events bowl situation remains a mess for folks like me, an issue that makes trying to predict basically all of the pre-Christmas bowl games very difficult.
  • While James Madison will likely get into a bowl game regardless of what happens with their waiver. That said, the waiver may affect what game they go to, since nominally every spot is supposed to be filled before the backup pool of teams is used. This may or may not matter since every Sun Belt bowl game is owned by ESPN Events.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 11

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Georgia Tech @ Clemson (ABC): Wait, hold on, we played a team last week that we should’ve beat and handled them easily? What team is this? Is this the same team that lost to Bowling Green? The same team that hasn’t had a winning record since Week 1 of 2020? That hasn’t even been close to bowling since 2018? I have no idea what to expect anymore.
  • Michigan @ Pennsylvania State (FOX): So we’re all familiar with how this is going to go now, right? Penn State will stick around and occasionally threaten, but at the end of the day the Big Win™ still eludes James Franklin and company. I still have no reason to believe otherwise.
  • Alabama @ Kentucky (ESPN): I want to believe, but yeah, now that Bama has figured out a QB rushing attack, it’s over. Over, I tell you.
  • Tulsa @ Tulane (ESPN2): Tulane by a lot.
  • Texas Tech @ Kansas (FS1): While Kansas doesn’t really have any sort of inside track to the Big 12 title game (that’s Oklahoma State now) they’re definitely favored to take care of business here.
  • Indiana @ Illinois (BTN): I still get BTN only in standard definition, so any reason to behold this game is further diminished. Uh, Illini I guess?
  • Vanderbilt @ South Carolina (SEC): South Carolina is bad this year, but Vandy remains even worse.
  • Virginia Tech @ Boston College (ACCN): This is definitely an ACC game that’s happening. BC.
  • Maryland @ Nebraska (Peacock)
  • Temple @ South Florida (ESPN+)

1:00 Old Dominion @ Liberty (ESPN+)

2:00:

  • North Carolina State @ Wake Forest (The CW): I don’t really want to look this up, but it certainly feels like NC State leads the league in appearances on the CW. Which, I say, more power to you! That’s nationally broadcast television! (Mostly.) Either way, I don’t think I’ve watched the Wolfpack at all this year, but I have seen Wake Forest, and they should be fine.
  • Arizona @ Colorado (Pac12): I keep having a tough time remembering Arizona is the Arizona school that’s good this season against all expectations and not Arizona State. Once again, Colorado’s Pac 12 difficulties figure to continue.
  • Connecticut @ James Madison (ESPN+)
  • Appalachian State @ Georgia State (ESPN+)
  • Troy @ Louisiana-Monroe (ESPN+)
  • Memphis @ Charlotte (ESPN+)

3:00:

  • Baylor @ Kansas State (ESPN+)
  • Sam Houston State @ Louisiana Tech (ESPN+)

3:30:

  • Tennessee @ Missouri (CBS): This might be one of the better games of the day, in all honestly. While Tennessee’s offense has been slightly off all season, they’re still pretty good. Mizzou, of course, has defied all expectations in becoming pretty solidly the 2nd best team in the SEC East this season. Add in what figures to be a crowd that has been oft-disappointed in Columbia, and I think there’s a good recipe for something interesting here.
  • Utah @ Washington (FOX): I feel a bit for the Utes. The defense is still good-to-great, but they’re just running out of bodies. Penix and company have looked more mortal in recent weeks, but the Huskies just figure to have too much firepower.
  • Minnesota @ Purdue (NBC): I won’t watch this game and you can’t make me. Gophers?
  • Miami @ Florida State (ABC): I know this is a rivalry and all, but I just see no way the Canes win this one.
  • Oklahoma State @ Central Florida (ESPN): The Pokes won Bedlam, and all they have to do to win out is beat UCF, BYU, and Cincinnati. You know, the three teams that have yet to beat any pre-existing Big 12 team. All you gotta do is not blow it Pokes, and you’ll get a shot at Texas in December. That’s all you gotta do.
  • Northwestern @ Wisconsin (BTN): Wisconsin is still figuring somethings out, but probably not “lose to Northwestern” levels of figuring things out.
  • Pittsburgh vs. Syracuse (@New York, NY; ACCN): This is being played in Yankee Stadium for some reason? Sure. Either way, this figures to be an Iowa-esque low-scoring defensive slapfest, and the experts in that arena are definitely on the Pittsburgh sidelines.
  • Alabama-Birmingham @ Navy (CBSS): Blazers, I guess?
  • Florida International @ Middle Tennessee State (ESPN+)
  • New Mexico State @ Western Kentucky (ESPN+)
  • Texas State @ Coastal Carolina (ESPN+)

4:00:

  • Washington State @ California (ESPN2): It’s not going the way Wazzu might’ve liked for their last year in the Pac-12 as we know it. They’ve now lost 5 straight, some of them understandable, but the most recent one suggests they’re just a bit snakebit: a 10-7 loss to a bad Stanford team. I’m not sure a trip to Berkeley is what they need to fix things, but just about anything can happen at Cal, and I think they might be able to get back up.
  • Auburn @ Arkansas (SEC): Yes, Arkansas definitely looked more like themselves after making a change at coordinator and upsetting Florida last weekend, but Auburn seems to be trending upward at the right time.
  • East Carolina @ Florida Atlantic (ESPN+)

5:00: Arkansas State @ South Alabama (ESPN+)

5:30: Stanford @ Oregon State (Pac12): Beavers all the way here.

7:00:

  • West Virginia @ Oklahoma (FOX): With their loss to Oklahoma State, the Sooners no longer control their Pac-12 destiny. That said, nothing remaining on their schedule suggests that they at least will be able to control what they can control: winning out.
  • Mississippi @ Georgia (ESPN): I want to believe… that Lane’s offense can show up for a big game for the first time in a while. I want to believe.
  • Cincinnati @ Houston (FS1): Houston beating Baylor says a lot about how bad Baylor’s been this year. Cincy’s been worse.
  • Georgia Southern @ Marshall (NFLN): Southern is coming up a baffling blowout loss to Texas State last week, but I think they’re still in the driver’s seat against most Sun Belt competition.
  • San Diego State @ Colorado State (CBSS): In perhaps the “well, somebody has to win” game of the year, I guess I’m going with the Rams? Sure, let’s put that down.

7:30:

  • Texas @ Texas Christian (ABC): While the loss to Colorado to start the year is still baffling, it hasn’t really gotten that much better for the Frogs. And it doesn’t figure to get better here. I suspect they might be looking forward to the Revivalry next week.
  • Michigan State @ Ohio State (NBC): This is a rough week, eh? Ohio State occasionally messes around for a bit and turns on the jets (read: remembers that they have a human cheat code lining up at WR named “Marvin Harrison, Jr”) but I suspect this one will be over by the end of the first quarter.
  • Mississippi State @ Texas A&M (ESPN2): Both of these teams have a lot of problems, but “not being able to score” is only a problem for one of them. Aggies figure to be able to relax just a tad this week.
  • Rice @ Texas-San Antonio (ESPNU): Meep meep.
  • Florida @ Louisiana State (SEC): Rarely the best SEC non-rivalry rivalry game, but often the strangest. I think Florida’s loss last week to Arkansas sets them perfectly to win this one. Yes, I know it’s LSU at home at night.

8:00: Duke @ North Carolina (ACCN): Okay, I know Duke is basically without a quarterback now, but UNC’s defense is just such a disaster. I think the Heels will ultimately win, but Duke can definitely keep it within a couple of scores.

9:00: Arizona State @ California-Los Angeles (Pac12): The Sun Devils let Utah work out some frustration last week to the tune of a 55-3 drubbing. UCLA might be able to visit the same upon them.

10:00: New Mexico @ Boise State (FS1): Lobos, losing two straight to the Nevada schools does not inspire a great deal of confidence even against a down year Boise State team.

10:15: Iowa State @ Brigham Young (ESPN): In September, I would’ve said BYU easily. But as bad as September looked for the Cyclones, they’ve gotten right and clearly shown they’re still a cut above the Big 12’s bottom dwellers.

10:30:

  • Southern California @ Oregon (FOX): USC finally fired Alex Grinch after UDub drubbed their defense. That said, a week doesn’t figure to be enough to figure it out, especially when they’ll have to go on the road to Autzen for a November night game, which is rarely fun for anybody.
  • Fresno State @ San Jose State (CBSS): Okay, I don’t gamble, but if I did… what in the world is the spread in this game. SJSU -1? As a team with a losing record against a physical, tough, one-loss Fresno State team? Per SP+, Fresno is essentially a 10 point favorite. What are we doing here?!?

11:00: Air Force @ Hawaii (Team1Sports)

Bowl Predictions 2023: Week 2

They’re actually here this time, and fully filled out even!

Let’s talk a little about the process. What I do is examine each team’s remaining schedule and roughly source based on their projected final record. In the past, I used to just sort of wing it, but these days I use SP+ to determine the winners and losers. SP+ is very predictive, but that does mean I don’t really account for upsets until they happen. So it’s common that I’ll be short a bunch of teams, but the gaps are filled in a bit as upsets occur.

This week I was nine teams short which means that NCAA Division I Bylaw 18.7.2 applies. Here’s a summary of how eligible (or “deserving” in NCAA-speak) teams are determined:

  1. You finish with a .500 record or better in games against FBS teams and no more than 1 FCS team (that gives enough scholarships).
  2. You would’ve finished with a .500 record or better, but you lost the conference title game (aka the “UCLA and Georgia Tech” rule).

So that got me to 72 bowl eligible teams. The problem is that there are 40 bowl games, so I need 80. What’s a guy to do? Well, turns out the NCAA thought of that. Here’s the deal:

  1. You can count 1 FCS win, even if that FCS school didn’t give out enough scholarships.
  2. If you played 13 games and finished with a 6-7 record.
  3. You’re a team that’s in its final year of reclassifying from FCS to FBS. Currently only James Madison fits this criteria.
  4. From then on, we go by Academic Progress Rate, or APR.

What APR is (or isn’t) doesn’t matter much for our purposes. What matters is that we can essentially use to find more teams.

It took some doing, but I got there. Again, check out the page for all the games. I’ll discuss the process more next week as well.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 10

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Notre Dame @ Clemson (ABC): I’m on the road and so this may be short. But yeah, Clemson got an all-time call-in show performance by Dabo Swinney earlier this week. Generally speaking,  I view that as a reason to go with Notre Dame.
  • Kansas State @ Texas (FOX): I think Texas has enough firepower to win this one, which is good, because they really need to take care of business.
  • Ohio State @ Rutgers (CBS): Buckeyes all the way here.
  • Texas A&M @ Mississippi (ESPN): Are to the point of the season yet where Ole Miss drops a game because Lane is too busy trying to get another job? Not yet? Okay.
  • Arkansas @ Florida (ESPN2): The Hogs are still limited by their lack of offense, and even with a coordinator change I don’t see things going much better against the Gators.
  • Nebraska @ Michigan State (FS1): I’m actually going to pick Nebraska? Man that feels weird.
  • Wisconsin @ Indiana (BTN): Wisky all the way here.
  • Jacksonville State @ South Carolina (ESPNU): Jax State is having a first great season in FBS. But the Gamecocks are still going to win.
  • Connecticut @ Tennessee (SEC): Vols.
  • Campbell @ North Carolina (ACCN)

2:00:

  • Georgia Tech @ Virginia (The CW): Okay, so at this point we’re going to keep the every other week thing right? (Looks at remaining schedule.) Right?
  • Arizona State @ Utah (Pac12): Utah is good but I think they’re more or less out of bodies. I’ll take the Sun Devils.
  • Navy @ Temple (ESPN+)

2:30: Army vs. Air Force (@Denver, CO; CBSSN): Army just doesn’t have the juice this year, which should allow the Falcons to cruise to the Commander-in-Chief’s trophy.

3:00:

  • Florida Atlantic @ Alabama-Birmingham (ESPN+)
  • South Florida @ Memphis (ESPN+)
  • Texas-San Antonio @ North Texas (ESPN+)
  • Louisiana @ Arkansas State (ESPN+)

3:30:

  • Missouri @ Georgia (CBS): Like many Georgia games this year, a seemingly gettable UGA squad will make one of their better opponents look silly.
  • Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State (“Bedlam”; ABC): Provided I don’t become the God-Emporer of College Football in the near future, this is the last Bedlam for a while. The joke, of course, is that “anything can happen in Bedlam: Oklahoma can win by a little, a lot, or a medium amount”. And the overall series record for this game reflects that. (91-17-7 OU, btw.) And, yet, despite the joke, I think after OU’s stumble in Lawrence last weekend anything can happen. And you know that as the jilted partner her, Stillwater is going to be up for it. So what the hell, let’s take the Pokes.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Maryland (FOX): Presumably Earth, Wind, and Fire is playing on loop in the Maryland football building.
  • Florida State @ Pittsburgh (ESPN): The Superweapon is presumably too depleted to knock off FSU here.
  • James Madison @ Georgia State (ESPN2): JMU all the way.
  • Central Florida @ Cincinnati (FS1): Well, I guess UCF will finally get a Big 12 win.
  • Illinois @ Minnesota (BTN): The Illni defense is going to just stuff the Gophers into a locker.
  • Tulane @ East Carolina (ESPNU): The Green Wave will take care of business here.
  • Virginia Tech @ Louisville (ACCN): I didn’t expect to even give the Hokies a chance, but here we are. I think the toothéd birds can get back in track here though.
  • Iowa vs. Northwestern (@Chicago, IL; Peacock)
  • Merrimack @ Massachusetts (ESPN+)
  • Houston @ Baylor (ESPN+)
  • Coastal Carolina @ Old Dominion (ESPN+)

4:00:

  • Auburn @ Vanderbilt (SEC): LIGHTNING ROUND. Tigers!
  • Louisiana-Monroe @ Southern Mississippi (ESPN+)
  • Charlotte @ Tulsa (ESPN+)

5:00: Georgia Southern @ Texas State (ESPN+)

5:30: California @ Oregon (Pac12): Ducks!

6:00:

  • Marshall @ Appalachian State (NFLN): Herd.
  • Louisiana Tech @ Liberty (CBSSN): Flames.
  • Nevada-Las Vegas @ New Mexico (MWN)
  • Middle Tennessee State @ New Mexico State (ESPN+)

7:00:

  • Brigham Young @ West Virginia (FOX): ‘Neers.
  • Kansas @ Iowa State (ESPN): Jayhawks?
  • Utah State @ San Diego State (FS1): Aztecs?

7:30:

  • Washington @ Southern California (ABC): Oh my goodness this game. Will UDub get enough stops? Becuase they might put up 80, but they’ll need to stop Caleb Williams and company at least once. I like the Huskies.
  • Purdue @ Michigan (NBC): Wolverines.
  • Southern Methodist @ Rice (ESPNU): Ponies.
  • Kentucky @ Mississippi State (SEC): Wildcats.

7:45: Louisiana State @ Alabama (CBS): Tide.

8:00: Miami @ North Carolina State (ACCN): Cane’s?

9:00:

  • Stanford @ Washington State (Pac12): Cougs!
  • Western Kentucky @ Texas-El Paso (ESPN+)

10:00:

  • Oregon State @ Colorado (ESPN): Beavers!
  • Boise State @ Fresno State (CBSS): Fresno.

10:30: California-Los Angeles @ Arizona (FS1): Bruins?