Yearly Archives: 2013

2014 World Cup Update: 16 Playing for 8

Today and Wednesday are the last days of qualification for the World Cup finals. After that, all that remains is the draw on December 6th at 1:00 PM Eastern.
As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.
CAF
Two games remain in the 3rd Round.

  • Ghana @ Egypt (11:00 AM): Bob Bradley and the Pharaohs face incredibly long odds down 6-1 on aggregate to Ghana.
  • Burkina Faso @ Algeria (3:15 PM): This one is close, as Burkina Faso is up 3-2 at the moment. However, the 1 goal margin means all sorts of crazy away goals rules are in play, so keep an eye out on this one.

UEFA
Four games remain in the 2nd Round.

  • Greece @ Romania (2:00 PM, espn3.com): The Greeks got an important late goal to go up 3-1 at home, but a 2-0 win at home for the Romanians will put them through thanks to away goals.
  • Iceland @ Croatia (2:15 PM, espn3.com): Iceland can properly be described as “plucky” as they attempt to become the smallest nation to ever qualify for a World Cup. They held Croatia to a 0-0 draw at home, which makes their task on the return leg that much harder, but even a 1-1 draw would do thanks to away goals.
  • Portugal @ Sweden (2:45 PM, espn3.com): Ronaldo beat Zlatan with an 82nd minute header last week. More importantly, Portugal was the side that looked like more of a team with a superstar and just a one-man show.
  • Ukraine @ France (3:00 PM, espn3.com): The Ukrainians mostly outclassed the French last week on their way to a 2-0 home win. The French have a lot of work to do to avoid missing their first World Cup since 1994.

Inter-confederation Playoffs
Both these games take place on Wednesday.

  • Mexico @ New Zealand (1:00 AM, ESPN): Mexico finally looked like Mexico last week and soundly defeated an inferior opponent at the Azteca for the first time in away. That 5-1 drubbing makes it nearly impossible for the All Whites to make consecutive trips to the World Cup for the first time ever.
  • Jordan @ Uruguay (6:00 PM, espn3.com): Uruguay also took care of business last week, winning 5-0 in Amman. The return leg should be a victory lap for La Celeste.

That’s about it.

Bowl Predictions 2014: Week 5

Stanford’s loss to Southern Cal really mixed tings up. Let’s examine how. As usual, the full predictions are here.
BCS

  • Alabama and Florida State remain in their respective drivers’ seats. I, for one, am really looking forward to Duke losing by 80 to FSU in the ACC Championship Game.
  • With Stanford’s loss, Oregon is back in the driver’s seat for the Pac-12 title. This also really hurts the Pac-12’s chances of getting two teams in the BCS. Essentially, the last at-large spot came down to my 1-loss Baylor or Oregon. The best chance for the Pac-12 to get two teams in the BCS is probably for Baylor to win out and go to the Fiesta Bowl, as I don’t think Oklahoma State would get a BCS at-large bid over Stanford.
  • Non-AQ Watch: UCF is 18th in this week’s poll. If they make it to the top 16, then NIU or Fresno would need to finish 12th or higher to make it in with the big boys. This would also be a viable path for Stanford to get a BCS bid.

The rest

  • Stanford not being in the BCS also shook up things below them. I sent them to the Alamo Bowl, but if USC wins out to get to 10-wins, they could well end up there, or the loser of the Pac-12 title game if Oregon wins.
  • What to do with Duke? I think there’s a good chance they could lose one of their last two games, but the predictions instead reflect them getting demolished by FSU. I just can’t see how the Chick-fil-a Bowl would take them, so I put Miami there. ACC rules dictate the title game loser can’t fall past the Sun Bowl, but I sort of reluctantly put them in the Russell Athletic Bowl.
  • Rivalry revival of the week: Texas versus Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl. This has a much better chance of happening if the Big 12 sends two teams to the BCS, otherwise either Oklahoma State or Baylor goes here. That said, if the Cotton Bowl can make this happen, I am pretty certain they will.
  • Georgia Tech watch: I still have GT in the Music City Bowl. Slot-wise, they could go to the Belk Bowl, but that game has a long-standing policy of taking North Carolina teams. I figure a 6-6 UNC gets taken over a 7-5 Georgia Tech. I don’t think we fall past the Music City because I doubt any of the other options are as appealing (Boston College, Maryland, or Pittsburgh).
  • I read the news today, oh boy: I’ve started doing research on what beat writers think about where their teams will go, but there’s not a whole lot out there yet. Though I was right on a couple of things I could find (Colorado State going to New Mexico and UNLV going to Hawaii).

This Weekend in College Football: Week 12

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Ohio State @ Illinois (ESPN): I’m sure the Buckeyes will be able to figure out something against the nation’s 105th ranked scoring defense.
  • Indiana @ Wisconsin (ESPN2): I’m less sure about Indiana’s ability to put something together against the nation’s 6th ranked scoring defense, though.
  • Iowa State @ Oklahoma (FS1): Oklahoma figures to be out for blood after last week.
  • Cincinnati @ Rutgers (ESPNEWS): Cincy has generally be a much more consistent team so far this year; they should be able to get a win.
  • Troy @ Mississippi (ESPNU): Troy already lost 62-7 to Mississippi State this year, so…
  • West Virginia @ Kansas (FSN): West Virginia has been extremely inconsistent this season, but it’s hard to envision how bad they would need to be to lose to Kansas.
  • Purdue @ Pennsylvania State (BTN): Penn State would be bowl eligible after this if they were eligible to go a bowl.
  • Kentucky @ Vanderbilt (SEC): Speaking of bowl eligibility, the Commodores are 5-4 and close with Kentucky, Tennessee, and Wake Forest. I have to say I like their chances of going 8-4.

12:30:

  • North Carolina @ Pittsburgh (ACC): Both these teams have lost to every competent opponent they’ve played this year, making this game a pretty even match. That said, Pitt did knock off Notre Dame last week and Carolina is riding a 3-game win streak. I’m giving a slight edge to Pitt, though.
  • Maryland @ Virginia Tech (ACC): Good Logan Thomas finally reappeared last week in last week’s easy win over Miami. However, thanks to Bad Logan Thomas’s loss to Duke, the Hokies don’t control their own destiny in the division.
  • North Carolina State @ Boston College (ACC/FSN): NC State is 0-6 in ACC play, and I don’t see that improving this week.

2:00: Washington State @ Arizona (Pac12): Wazzou is better this year than last, but they’re still not quite there yet.

3:30:

  • Georgia @ Auburn (CBS): I’d say the tables are almost completely flipped for these two teams from where they were at the start of the season. Considering their injury situation, I just don’t see how UGA will be able to keep up with the Tigers.
  • Michigan State @ Nebraska (ABC/ESPN2): The risk for a team like Michigan State is always that one week, the defense just isn’t quite up to snuff and the offense is still as incompetent as ever. But that said, Nebraska is a 7-2 team that most people would probably describe as “struggling”, what with being a few plays away from 5-4 and all. I’ll stick with Sparty here.
  • Syracuse @ Florida State (ABC/ESPN2): Syracuse is… not good. Not good at all.
  • Miami @ Duke (ESPNU): On paper, this one shouldn’t be close. Miami is a team that can definitely shoot itself in the foot, but that’s really the only way the Blue Devils can win this game.
  • South Alabama @ Navy (CBSS): Navy isn’t awesome this year, but they don’t need to be against these guys.
  • Texas Christian @ Kansas State (FSN): TCU barely eked out a win over Iowa State last weekend, which does not bode well for their chances against the Wildcats.
  • Michigan @ Northwestern (BTN): Northwestern’s awful year doesn’t appear to be getting any better, but if they have a shot, it’s against this moribund Michigan squad.

4:00: Utah @ Oregon (FS1): This is sure to be yet another resounding defeat for the transitive property as it applies to college football.

5:30: California @ Colorado (Pac12): Going with Colorado, because why not?

7:00:

  • Baylor vs. Texas Tech (@Arlington, TX; FOX): I figured Texas Tech might lose 4 of their last 5, but well, I didn’t really see them losing to Kansas State. Whoops. Things don’t look to be getting much better against Baylor.
  • Florida @ South Carolina (ESPN2): Florida is just so inept offensive that it is impossible to pick them to win this game.
  • Houston @ Louisville (ESPNU): Louisville’s best shot at the AAC crown looked to be Houston beating UCF last weekend, but that didn’t happen. The Cardinals may be out for revenge.
  • Louisiana Tech @ Rice (CBSS): Going with Rice here. They’re better, but it still feels weird.

7:45: Alabama @ Mississippi State (ESPN): There is almost no way I could purposely pick anyone to beat Alabama right now.

8:00: Stanford @ Southern California (ABC): DACOACHO GONNA GO OUT COACHA DA FOOTBAW ANNA LEADA THA TROWJANS TOA VICTORIE. Okay, probably not. Stanford is pretty good, folks.

9:30: Oregon State @ Arizona State (Pac12): This is an intriguing matchup of the Pac-12’s second tier, and, well, I’ve been calling this for Arizona State for weeks in the bowl predictions, so I’m going to stick to my guns.

10:15: Wyoming @ Boise State (ESPN2): Boise should be able to handle this.

10:30:

  • San Diego State @ Hawaii (CBSS): The retro uniforms will be cool, but it’s hard to see the re-christened Rainbow Warriors having much of a chance here.
  • San Jose State @ Nevada (ESPNU): It’s been pretty bad for Nevada this year. Hard to see it getting much better against SJSU.

2014 World Cup Update: Playoffs?!?

That’s right folks, in two weeks we will know who will occupy the remaining 11 spots in the 2014 World Cup Finals. Accordingly, I have updated my difficult-to-read-list of the status of all FIFA members. This table is organized by status and then date this time around. The massive image showing everyone’s route to the Finals has also been updated. (I also updated the CONCACAF and AFC guides.)

So let’s do our usual whip-around coverage thing, starting with the…

Inter-confederation playoffs

First up is Jordan vs. Uruguay. In a somewhat similar fashion to what happened in the previous World Cup cycle, Uruguay wasn’t quite good enough to qualify automatically out CONMEBOL. They shouldn’t really have any trouble with Jordan, though. The Jordanians only have one player that plays outside the Middle East, while Uruguay has guys like Diego Forlan and Luis Suarez. It’s hard to see how this will be close.

Next up is Mexico vs. New Zealand. Mexico shouldn’t have much trouble here either, as many of the All-Whites play in New Zealand’s semi-pro league. But, well, Mexico shouldn’t really even be here in the first place, and the latest lame duck coach isn’t even going to call in his European based players. Can El Tri finally get it done? Again, the odds say yes, but the odds also didn’t have them needing a stoppage time goal from their archrivals to save them from not qualifying at all.

CAF

The CAF Third Round will be decided this weekend. Remember, the away goals rule is in effect. If the fixture is tied regardless, then there will be two periods of extra time followed by a shootout.

  • Ivory Coast vs. Senegal: The Ivory Coast won the first leg 3-1 at home. The return leg will actually be played in Morocco, but regardless, if Senegal scores two without allowing any, the will advance on away goals. If they win 3-0 or better, they win automatically. Any win or draw on their part obviously works in the Ivory Coast’s favor. If Senegal win 3-1, then it will go to extra time. If Senegal win 4-2, they will actually lose, as Ivory Coast would have more away goals on aggregate. (This same logic applies to pretty much everything else.)
  • Ethiopia vs. Nigeria: Nigeria won the first leg 2-1, giving them a huge advantage on the return. They should qualify.
  • Tunisia vs. Cameroon: the first leg was a 0-0 draw, putting Tunisia in the position of winning any non-scoreless draw. So, 0-0 they go to extra time, Cameroon wins they go to the World Cup, and if Tunisia wins or draws 1-1 or better, they go to the World Cup.
  • Ghana vs. Egypt: the best story in international football was obliterated 6-1 last month. Barring an utter miracle, this will be Bob Bradley’s last game as Egypt’s coach (apparently he was almost fired after the match anyway).
  • Burkina Faso vs. Algeria: Burkina Faso won the first leg at home 3-2, so Algeria has a bit of a hill to climb on the return.

UEFA

We’ll conclude with a quick preview of the UEFA playoff ties.

  • Portugal vs. Sweden: surprisingly, stadia were found that could contain both Cristiano Ronaldo and Zlatan Ibrahimovic’s egos.
  • Ukraine vs. France: the French had the misfortune of being in the same group as Spain. Presumably they won’t need a handball to get into the World Cup this time around, but the Ukrainians should be a pretty tough test in and of themselves.
  • Greece vs. Romania: I really don’t know any cracks I can make about either of these teams, so hopefully this turns out to be interesting soccer-wise. Greece was the top 2nd-place team and actually finished with a positive goal difference, so they probably have an edge here.
  • Iceland vs. Croatia: Iceland were the darlings of the UEFA qualification cycle, coming out of almost nowhere to finish 2nd in the group ahead of more established teams like Slovenia and Norway. They’ll face a better team that had a disappointing campaign in Croatia. This could be a fun one.

I’ll try to check in early next week with how everyone did. Until then!

Bowl Predictions 2013: Week 4

They’re here, as usual. You may want to just go ahead and bookmark that, as I usually update it before writing the post. Anyway, the main happenings here are in the BCS, so let’s get to it.

BCS
Florida State assumes sole control of its own destiny for the slot behind Alabama. This means that the Sugar and Orange bowls get the first shot at replacements.

Let me lay the whole thing out for you. In addition to Alabama and Florida State, the following teams automatically qualify: Ohio State (as Big Ten champion, goes to the Rose Bowl), Stanford (as Pac-12 champion, goes to the Rose Bowl), Baylor (as Big 12 champion, goes to Fiesta Bowl), Central Florida (as AAC champion, earns BCS bid), Fresno State (as Mountain West champion ranked in the top 16 and higher than UCF). This means there are effectively three BCS at-large slots available. The candidates, according to my projections, are:

  • a 1-loss Clemson
  • a 2-loss Auburn
  • a 2-loss Missouri (with the 2nd loss being in the SEC title game to Alabama)
  • a 1-loss Oregon
  • a 2-loss Oklahoma State (with the 2nd loss being to one of Texas, Baylor, or Oklahoma)

Remember, the selection order is Sugar, Orange, and then Orange again, followed by the Sugar again, and then the Fiesta. Those last two slots will almost certainly go to UCF and Fresno State in some order – the Orange took Northern Illinois last year and almost certain wants a marquee matchup this time around. The most appealing candidate for the Sugar is probably a 10-2 Auburn. This basically means the Orange can matchup whoever it wants. Right now I have Clemson and Oregon. Oregon hasn’t been that far east for a bowl game since the 1960 Liberty Bowl (back when that game was in Philadelphia), and a matchup against Clemson would be a good recipe for a breakneck, fast-paced game (hopefully).

Misc
Some other observations from this week’s predictions.

  • There will not be a shortage of teams this year. If you’re wondering why I have some mid-major teams ahead of major conference teams for at-large spots, it’s because usually those games have agreements in place.
  • The two major conference teams I’m having trouble placing are West Virginia and Utah.
  • With realignment, I have to think matching up old rivals is a priority for the management of any second or third-rate bowl game. Hence the Backyard Brawl being transported to Shreveport.
  • I have Georgia Tech in the Music City because don’t think we’ll go to the Russell Athletic Bowl if we win out, we will not go back to El Paso this year, and the Belk will probably take Duke because that’s how they roll.
  • I try to avoid repeats if I can help it, but I’m sure the Ol’ Ball Coach can find some golf courses around Tampa he hasn’t played yet.