Yearly Archives: 2013

This Weekend in College Football: Week 14

As usual, all times Eastern and predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Ohio State @ Michigan (ABC): Michigan isn’t disaster at this point simply because Florida still makes them look good. Ohio State should win easily.
  • Florida State @ Florida (ESPN): Whoops!

    So … Georgia Southern’s passing downs success rate was higher than Florida’s. GS didn’t complete a pass.
    — Bill Connelly (@SBN_BillC) November 26, 2013

    So yeah, not feeling good about UF’s chances here.

  • Duke @ North Carolina (ESPN2): I hate Duke so much. I also hate all the teams that managed to lose to Duke for no apparent reason after Georgia Tech went and dismantled them. I don’t have a very good idea who is going to win this game because I don’t think Duke is that good, but Carolina has been pretty not… great this year. I’m begrudgingly picking Duke.
  • Kansas State @ Kansas (FS1): Kansas is still awful, K-State rolls.
  • Temple @ Memphis (ESPNEWS): I’ll take Memphis’s three wins over Temple’s one.
  • Rutgers @ Connecticut (ESPNU): Again, I’ll take the five win team (Rutgers) over the one win team.
  • Minnesota @ Michigan State (BTN): It’s hard to see how things get any easier for Minnesota’s 70th-ranked offense against Michigan State’s defense of death.
  • Wake Forest @ Vanderbilt (SEC): Vandy is the superior team here.

12:30: Maryland @ North Carolina State (ACC): Maryland isn’t very good, but NC State is worse, so…

2:00: Colorado @ Utah (Pac12): Utah has lost five straight games since beating Stanford, making that game even more inexplicable. Despite this, they still appear to be more solid than Colorado.

2:30: North Texas @ Tulsa (FSN): North Texas should put an end to one of college football’s most disappointing outfits this season.

3:00: Brigham Young @ Nevada (CBSS): Nevada struggled much of the year before their upset last week over San Jose State. BYU had a wrenching loss to Notre Dame, but despite these factors, BYU is the better team.

3:30:

  • Georgia @ Georgia Tech (ABC): Once again, we need play basically flawlessly. Everything has to go right for us and bad for them. But, above all: To Hell With Georgia.
  • Alabama @ Auburn (CBS): This should be a great time, for a time. Alabama, though, is just too good, too efficient. Auburn’s strides since last season are nearly amazing, but I think this game will show how far they still have to go.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Wisconsin (ESPN): Wisconsin should roll as per usual.
  • Baylor @ Texas Christian (ESPN2): Baylor should be able to regain their mojo against a struggling TCU team.
  • Virginia Tech @ Virginia (ESPNU): UVA is awful, but that hasn’t stopped VPI from taking bad losses so far this season. That said, UVA is one of the few teams with a worse offense statistically than VPI’s, so they should be okay in this one.
  • Purdue @ Indiana (BTN): Once again, I’ll take Indiana’s four wins against Purdue’s single win.
  • Boston College @ Syracuse (ACC/FSN): Syracuse needs this win for bowl eligibility, but I just don’t think they’ll get it.

4:00: Iowa State @ West Virginia (FS1): These teams are evenly matched. That’s not really a good thing for WVU, who probably did not hire Dana Holgersen to run the nation’s 90th ranked scoring offense. Does Holgo still have the mojo to beat Iowa State? It’s probably going to be closer than many WVU fans would like.

7:00:

  • Notre Dame @ Stanford (FOX): The nation’s 75th ranked offense will be getting no favors from Stanford’s defense. The Tree should roll, much like a log rolling downhill.
  • Clemson @ South Carolina (ESPN2): I think Clemson is the better team here. However, that doesn’t mean I feel great about their chances. The ACC will almost certainly get two teams into the BCS first for the time ever if Clemson and Florida State win. More importantly for Clemson fans, they’ve lost four straight in this one. This is their best chance to overturn it so far.
  • Tennessee @ Kentucky (ESPNU): Tennessee’s motto at this point could well be “well, at least we’re not Kentucky”.

7:45: Texas Agricultural and Mechanical @ Missouri (ESPN): TAMU has lost three games this year, and I think it’s about to become four, and it’s almost entirely because of their awful defense.

8:00: California-Los Angeles @ Southern California (ABC): Call me crazy, but I’m actually calling this for USC. Southern Cal and DACOACHO have started to play like, well, Southern Cal. Meanwhile, after failing to upset either of the Pac-12’s top two teams, losing to Arizona State last week killed any chance for the preseason Pac-12 South favorites.

9:30: Arizona @ Arizona State (Pac12): Arizona’s out-of-nowhere upset followed losses to UCLA and Wazzou. I like the Sun Devils, but these teams actually look pretty evenly matched. This one could be interesting.

10:15: New Mexico @ Boise State (ESPN2): This one, less so. Boise should roll.

10:30: San Diego State @ Nevada-Las Vegas (ESPNU): And finally, a day that is bound to be gut-wrenching for many wraps up with a little affair out in Vegas. At stake in this Mountain West clash? Not much, due to the Aztech’s overtime loss to Fresno back in October. This should be close, at least for a bit, but SDSU should prevail.

THWG Thought of the Day: 11/29

Unfortunately, I have been way too busy to post these this year. So unfortunately it’s not going to be THWG week this year so much as “THWG Friday and Saturday”. So let’s make up a little for lost time. And remember, To Hell With Georgia.

Like Wake Forest or Maryland or somebody…

Bowl Predictions 2013: Week 6

Oregon’s dismantling and Baylor’s first lost could cost them both dearly in the BCS picture. Which one gets left out?

BCS

  • Still sticking with Alabama and Florida State. If something does happen with Florida State’s QB, they should still win their remaining games and make it to the national title game.
  • I think yesterday’s results hurt Oregon more than Baylor. For starters, that makes it Oregon’s second loss. Second, Baylor gets to play two more game and show that they’re still okay, while Oregon has just one more game. I may be forced to revise this after the polls come out to see how far each falls, but that’s how I see it right now.
  • I think Clemson is a BCS lock if they beat South Carolina.
  • I like Auburn over Missouri for the obligatory second BCS team. For starters, the Sugar will be forced to take Central Florida, so they’re going to want the biggest name they can get, an that is probably still a 2-loss Auburn over a 2-loss Mizzou.
  • The other candidates for that Oregon/Baylor final alternate spot in the Orange Bowl are probably 11-2 Michigan State and 10-2 Wisconsin.
  • Non-AQ watch: UCF is close to jumping Fresno in the computers. Fresno has two more games, including the MWC title game which will be either Utah State or Boise State. Meanwhile, UCF’s games are decidedly less attractive: South Florida and SMU. UCF also trails in the human polls, but remember, all UCF has to do is pass Fresno and/or Northern Illinois and that will shut out both. [Late edit: the in the newest BCS standings, NIU passed UCF. I will update the predictions to reflect this if I get a chance.]

Unfortunately, I don’t have a lot of time to do a full run-down this week. Things will get really interesting starting this Saturday night anyway, so I’ll have a full look at the whole picture on Sunday and Monday next week.

This Week in College Football: Week 14

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Tuesday
7:00: Western Michigan @ Northern Illinois (ESPN2): One of these teams is 1-10. The other is 11-0. I think you guys got this one.

Thursday
7:30: Texas Tech @ Texas (FS1): Texas Tech has come down in recent weeks from their loft undefeated start of the season, going from 7-0 to 7-4. (Of course, considering their awful non-conference schedule, this wasn’t exactly a shock. Their best win on the season is probably SMU.) Texas started with a disaster of a season and managed to turn it around to something reasonable. The Longhorms are still in play for the title, and I think they’ll remain so after this.

8:00: Mississippi @ Mississippi State (ESPN): Miss State needs this Egg Bowl win to get to 6-6, but their offense is struggling to a pretty high degree as of late, and they needed to overtime to beat a beyond moribund Arkansas team last weekend. I’m going with Ole Miss here.

Friday
Noon:

  • Iowa @ Nebraska (ABC): Both of these teams struggled on offense, and Nebraska has had too many shaky wins against bad teams. Iowa’s defense appears legit, and this could be a classic Frentez-win, you know, a 9-7 Iowa win or some such.
  • Southern Methodist @ Houston (ESPN2): Houston’s been a slightly more well-rounded team over the course of the season. They’ve had three straight tough losses to the American’s “best” teams, so if they can get over that they should be good enough to beat SMU.
  • East Carolina @ Marshall (CBSS): This is a tough, tight battle for the C-USA East crown. I like ECU better but I can’t really explain why. This should be a good one if you get theCBS Sports network, though.

1:30: Bowling Green vs. Buffalo (@Orchard Park, NY; ESPNU): Did you know Bowling Green has the nation’s sixth ranked scoring defense? It’s true! I like them here.

2:30: Arkansas @ Louisiana State (CBS): Arkansas just isn’t very good. I mean, LSU isn’t great or anything, but they’re good enough to win.

3:00: Florida International @ Florida Atlantic (FS1): FAU is 5-6 and FIU is 1-10, so FAU by default.

3:30:

  • Washington State @ Washington (FOX): It feels like weird stuff always happens in the Apple Cup, but while Wazzou is improved, I think UDub is still just better.
  • Miami @ Pittsburgh (ABC): Miami has been extremely inconsistent, and honestly, that was true before they lost their best player. But the talent, man, the talent is still good enough to beat Pitt.
  • Fresno State @ San Jose State (CBSS): Living in San Jose, I know the local press have thought of this as something of a lost season for the Spartans. I’ve got two other reasons to pick against them, though. First, Fresno is pretty good. Second, they started running these awful TV ads last weekend that talked about the “tradition” of an inaugural edition of their “rivalry” with Fresno State. Wha?

7:00: Oregon State @ Oregon (FS1): The Ducks will be out for blood after last weekend. At least, they should be.

8:00: South Florida @ Central Florida (ESPN): USF’s last two games are losses to SMU and Memphis. They scored a combined 16 points in those games. This should be a gimme for UCF.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 13

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Michigan State @ Northwestern (ESPN): Northwestern has had an awful time of it this season, and it doesn’t look to suddenly be getting any better with Sparty’s defense to contend with.
  • Duke @ Wake Forest (ESPN2): There often hasn’t been a lot riding on this game, has there? It’s hard to figure that Duke would lose here, no matter how much I’d like them to .
  • Oklahoma @ Kansas State (FS1): Even though they’re, shall we say, offensively challenged these days the Sooners still pack enough punch to beat K-State.
  • Cincinnati @ Houston (ESPNEWS): Tobby Tuberville does nothing but win (against really bad teams, that is). Houston came up just short against the AAC’s front runners in their past two games, so they have more than a good shot against the Bearcats.
  • Virginia @ Miami (ESPNU): When Miami lost to Duke last weekend, I wasn’t happy or sad. I was angry. Mainly, I was angry that we pretty much went out and beat Duke like they’re, well, Duke back in September, yet Miami and Virginia Tech manage to have the worst games of their seasons against the Blue Devils. Absolutely ridiculous. At any rate, Miami is still good enough to be able to easily beat Virginia.
  • Michigan @ Iowa (BTN): You could watch this game, but I don’t really know why. I guess I’m going with Michigan.
  • Mississippi State @ Arkansas (SEC): Miss State should be able to earn that tantalizing fifth win here, putting it all on the line for the Egg Bowl next weekend.

12:30:

  • Pittsburgh @ Syracuse (ACC): The ACC’s newbies face off! However, the ‘Cuse seems to be a much worse team at this point.
  • East Carolina @ North Carolina State (ACC): I’ve had NC State losing this game in the bowl predictions and such, but I’m not really sure how. ECU isn’t great or anything, but NCSU is kind of bad. I’m sticking with the Wolfpack, but this feels like an upset is a brewin’.

1:30: Alabama Agricultural and Mechanical @ Georgia Tech (espn3.com): Last week, Clemson played their most complete game of the season against GT. The Tigers won every phase of the game except for the “Robert Godhigh” phase. But, nonetheless, GT must march on. This team is pretty aggressively mediocre: we’ve lost to everyone better than us and beat everyone worse than us. Anyway, this game. Alabama A&M is 4-7 this year with a 4-5 record in SWAC play. They actually have not played any other FBS opponents this season, so it’s hard to compare exactly, but usually the level of play in the SWAC is not great. The key to this game are the same as they are to any opponent like this: don’t let them get into it. Hopefully we do a much better job of executing on the plan than we did last Thursday.

    3:30:

    • Texas Agricultural and Mechanical @ Louisiana State (CBS): I’ve been leaning toward TAMU on this one, but it is tough. You have TAMU’s excellent offense against LSU’s pretty good defense, and then LSU’s okay offense against TAMU’s awful defense. It’s a matter of which one screws up first. Given that, still leaning TAMU.
    • Brigham Young @ Notre Dame (NBC): I think BYU is a pretty legitimate team and can score the “upset” against Notre Dame.
    • Oregon @ Arizona (ABC/ESPN2): Thanks to USC last weekend, Oregon is back in the driver’s seat in the Pac 12 North, and this came shouldn’t cause them to have to give it up again.
    • Indiana @ Ohio State (ABC/ESPN2): Ohio State needs all the help they can get, and it’s likely even a blowout here will help that much.
    • Wisconsin @ Minnesota (ESPN): I suspect Minnesota’s four game winning streak and good feelings will face a pretty stark reality check against the Badgers this weekend and Sparty next weekend.
    • Idaho @ Florida State (ESPNU): FSU.
    • Colorado State @ Utah State (CBSS): Utah State’s only losses are still to BYU, Utah, Southern Cal, and Boise State. Those are all good teams. Colorado State, not so much.
    • Utah @ Washington State (Pac12): Wazzou can make a bowl if they win this game, but I actually don’t think they will. Utah is pretty solid and I’m not sure Wazzou is quite there yet. I am dreading that pick, though.
    • Boston College @ Maryland (ACC/FSN): BC is 6-4 mostly from beating the Marylands of the world. I expect this trend to continue.
    • Nebraska @ Pennsylvania State (BTN): What is Nebraska at this point? I have no clue. I do like their chances to beat Penn State, though.

    4:00:

    • California @ Stanford (FS1): The Big Game doesn’t feel quite so big when one of the teams is very, very bad. Stanford should roll.
    • New Mexico @ Fresno State (ESPNEWS): Fresno.

    7:00:

    • Arizona State @ California-Los Angeles (FOX): Until USC announced their intentions by beating Stanford last weekend, this looked like the battle in the Pac-12 South. For weeks in the bowl predictions I had been calling this game for UCLA, but I switched last week and I’m going to stick with the Sun Devils.
    • Vanderbilt @ Tennessee (ESPN2): This is one hard to pick, as Vandy is the better team but they always seem to have trouble with the Volunteers. I’m sticking with them anyway.
    • Kentucky @ Georgia (ESPNU): I think UGA’s chances here.
    • Tulsa @ Louisiana Tech (CBSS): When CBS Sports picked this game, I’m guessing they were thinking that Tulsa might be a little better than 2-8. Both of these offenses rank in the 100’s, and Tulsa’s defense is down there too, so I’m going with LaTech.

    7:45: Missouri @ Mississippi (ESPN): Mizzou continues their march toward a SEC East title with a win here. I think they’ll get it.

    8:00:

    • Baylor @ Oklahoma State (ABC): Your Saturday forecast for Stillwater, OK: highs in the low 40’s with game time temperature expected to be around freezing. Will that be enough to slow down Baylor? I’ve been expecting the Bears to take at least one loss in their last five games, and this is the last chance. Can Oklahoma State do it? At this point, if they can’t, I doubt anyone can. But given the conditions and what feels like inevitability, I’m going with the Cowboys.
    • Kansas @ Iowa State (FS1): I’m picking Kansas to win a game? This feels like madness.

    9:30: Southern California @ Colorado (Pac12): USC. (Can I take a second to continue to praise Rece Davis and the fact that he also uses the Internet’s jokes about Ed Orgeron on air? Also can I just say that I support DaCoachO being USC’s head coach because even though it will be a disaster it will be hilarious, well, at least if you’re not a USC fan?)

    10:30:

    • Washington @ Oregon State (ESPN2): I think this is actually an interesting game, though UDub has a slight edge on paper. So I’m going with the Huskies, but this should be a good nightcap.
    • Boise State @ San Diego State (CBSS): This game could be okay, but if Boise gets going early (and they’ve gotten going to the tune of 90 points the last two weeks), then it will be an even stiffer test for the Aztecs.