Oregonâ€™s dismantling and Baylorâ€™s first lost could cost them both dearly in the BCS picture. Which one gets left out?
- Still sticking with Alabama and Florida State. If something does happen with Florida Stateâ€™s QB, they should still win their remaining games and make it to the national title game.
- I think yesterdayâ€™s results hurt Oregon more than Baylor. For starters, that makes it Oregonâ€™s second loss. Second, Baylor gets to play two more game and show that theyâ€™re still okay, while Oregon has just one more game. I may be forced to revise this after the polls come out to see how far each falls, but thatâ€™s how I see it right now.
- I think Clemson is a BCS lock if they beat South Carolina.
- I like Auburn over Missouri for the obligatory second BCS team. For starters, the Sugar will be forced to take Central Florida, so theyâ€™re going to want the biggest name they can get, an that is probably still a 2-loss Auburn over a 2-loss Mizzou.
- The other candidates for that Oregon/Baylor final alternate spot in the Orange Bowl are probably 11-2 Michigan State and 10-2 Wisconsin.
- Non-AQ watch: UCF is close to jumping Fresno in the computers. Fresno has two more games, including the MWC title game which will be either Utah State or Boise State. Meanwhile, UCFâ€™s games are decidedly less attractive: South Florida and SMU. UCF also trails in the human polls, but remember, all UCF has to do is pass Fresno and/or Northern Illinois and that will shut out both. [Late edit: the in the newest BCS standings, NIU passed UCF. I will update the predictions to reflect this if I get a chance.]
Unfortunately, I don’t have a lot of time to do a full run-down this week. Things will get really interesting starting this Saturday night anyway, so I’ll have a full look at the whole picture on Sunday and Monday next week.