Yearly Archives: 2008

THWG Thought of the Day: 11/23

It’s to Hell With Georgia Week here on ASimSports.

I’ll try to make a post every day with content related to the upcoming contest this Saturday. I’ve set up some to post ahead of time, and others I’ll do on the fly.

Today, however, we rest. Well, also I have a flight in a little over 5 hours. After I get back home, I’ll be back with some thoughts on what happened yesterday and the bowl predictions. I actually already uploaded them, but I’ll double-check them once the BCS comes out and then do my analysis.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 13

I love Thursday night games. What I like even more is that we managed to win this year.

Das Jackets are now 8-3 with 1 game to go. We’re basically at the upper bound of what I predicted we could this year (4 to 8 wins), based on all the stuff that happened in the offseason. And what I saw tonight is one of the best games mentally Tech has played all year. There was only really one or two major player mistakes (the chop block early in the 1st quarter, which was legit, and the bad pitch by Jaybo in the third) and one coaching mistake (the onside kick after MJ’s pick-6). All these mistakes presented opportunities to let Miami into the game, but the team recovered and shut down Miami on offense until garbage time. The Tech offense didn’t let up until late in the 3rd quarter, and perhaps best of all the Jackets never trailed in this game.

Anyway, unlike the crap last weekend, there’s actaully some games on Saturday. So let’s do some predictin’.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Michigan @ Ohio State (ABC): It’s Michigan! It’s Ohio State! Er, wait, OSU is favored by three touchdowns? Trivia of the week: The last time either team came in with a losing record was OSU in 1988 (they were 4-5-1 at the time, and then lost). The last time Michigan came into this game with a losing record was 1967. As for the prediction part, well, I agree with Vegas on this one.
  • West Virginia @ Louisville (ESPN): Louisville has no moment here, as losers of 3 straight. The only thing in their favor is WVU’s terrible coaching, but even so I don’t like the Cardinals’ chances here.
  • Indiana @ Purdue (ESPN2): I like how this game is on national TV but Illinois-Northwestern isn’t. At least Northwestern is going to go a bowl. Anyway, will the Boilermakers be able to win one for Joe “Oatmeal” Tiller? Since both are 1-6 in the Big Ten and 3-8 overall, and also terrible in general, this game is about a push as far as I’m concerned. So I’ll just root for Purdue and move on.
  • North Carolina State @ North Carolina (Raycom/Gameplan): GT needs UNC to lose one of its last two games, but I don’t really see that happened. Of course, I didn’t really see UNC losing to Maryland last week, either, but them’s the breaks. Also, Maryland is better than Duke and NC State, even in this topsy-turvy ACC. Tarheels win.
  • Clemson @ Virginia (Raycom/Gameplan): If Clemson pulls out a win here, they will be bowl eligible. Talk a miracle comeback. Tech also needs UVA to lose again, but I don’t really see that here either. Cavs win.

12:30: Tennessee @ Vanderbilt (Raycom/Gameplan): The last time Tennessee did not go to a bowl was 2005, where Vandy (having blown their chance to do so) played the spoiler. While there will probably still be more construction orange than black or gold in Nashville, I like Vandy’s chances here now that they have the bowl qualification monkey off their back.

2:30: Syracuse @ Notre Dame (NBC): Man, I really wanted Navy to win last week. Oh well. This is pretty automatic for ND here as long as they’re not looking forward to next week.

3:00: Washington @ Washington State (FSN): CRIPPLE FIGHT. The two worst teams in major college football will face off in the Apple Cup Saturday. Hilariously, both teams have scored the same paltry amount of points (139) but U-Dub’s defense is allowing 10 points less per game. I suspect this will be the edge here, so I’ll take the Huskies.

3:30:

  • Mississippi @ Louisiana State (CBS): I don’t know if the rest of the college football world noticed, but LSU nearly lost to Troy last week. The short story is that for 3 quarters, LSU’s quarterbacks were really, really bad. That said, I still like LSU here as at every other skill position they are more talented than Ole Miss. (That said, if LSU is down 31 at the start of the 4th quarter they’re not coming back this time. I think that’s obvious, though.)
  • Michigan State @ Pennsylvania State (ESPN2/ABC): Penn State is playing for the Rose Bowl here, basically. If Michigan State wins, they will probably have a case for one of the other BCS bowls. If Penn State wins, and I think they will, then they’ll go to the Rose.
  • Boston College @ Wake Forest (Gameplan/ESPN2/ABC): Wake has been, well, inconsistent this year. I realize this is moniker that could apply to every team in the ACC, but still they lost to by far the worst team in the conference last week. Meanwhile, BC is on something of a roll after wins over Notre Dame and FSU. I like the Eagles here.
  • Stanford @ California (ABC): My favorite thing about this game? The Stanford Jonah. Yes, that’s right, the song GT ripped off at the 1929 Rose Bowl and turned into “Up With the White and Gold”. So I get to watch a usually entertaining game (and, if you look at the coverage map, not many people will) and sing one of our fight songs. Everyone wins! At any rate, Stanford needs this win to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2001. I’m not really optimistic about their chances, so I’ve got to pick Cal here.
  • Air Force @ Texas Christian (Versus): Hey, uh, Versus? If you were going to show a Mountain West game, why not, you know, BYU-Utah? I mean, I’m just saying. At any rate, I may watch this just for AF’s true wishbone offense (at least, I think it is) but TCU should prevail.
  • Illinois @ Northwestern (BTN): I wonder when the last time NU was favored here? Well, I don’t know if Vegas does but I do.

7:00:

  • Oregon State @ Arizona (Versus): Oregon State is living the dream right now, and as long as they don’t overlook Arizona I think they will go into next weekend with a very real chance of winning the Pac-10.
  • Iowa @ Minnesota (BTN): Minnesota has got to be the turn-around story of the year. Of course, they’re not exactly ending on a high note at the moment as they’ve lost 3 straight with bad losses to Big Ten bottom-dwellers (and try not to laugh (too much)) Michigan and Wisconsin. Despite every lesson I’ve ever learned about Iowa, I like them here.

7:15: Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati (ESPN2): I really just cannot take the Wann-stache here. Also, a win here would just about clinch the conference for Cincy, as they’d hold tiebreakers over everyone except UConn. So I like the Bearcats.

7:45: Florida State @ Maryland (ESPN): While a win here does not clinch the ACC Atlantic for the Turtle, it does keep them in the driver’s seat. Also, nothing about FSU scares me and the game is at Maryland, where it will be cold (and loud, if anyone shows up). I’ll take the Terps here.

8:00: Texas Tech @ Oklahoma (ABC): If I had a copy of “The Final Countdown” I’d start playing it right now. Of course, the question is, does a loss to Oklahoma even knock TTU out of the title game? I’m not so sure it does. Oklahoma would be best loss sported by any of the 1-loss teams. And if OSU beats Oklahoma next week TTU would still go to the Big 12 Title Game with a shot at redemption anyway. So maybe this isn’t quite the final countdown. At any rate, I like Texas Tech. This offense is just too good. I realize both offenses are good but OU’s is pretty white break in my opinion, whereas I (and the talking heads are jumping on board with this) think of Mike Leach as a pass-happy version of Paul Johnson. So I have to go with Texas Tech here.

Bowl Predictions, Week 5

Once again, on the stage of history, this week’s bowl predictions. Commentary follows.

Oh, you can read them here.

  • Tech versus Vandy may be optimistic hope more than anything else, but let me just throw this out here:

    Dear Music City Bowl,

    If you select the Georgia Institute of Technology to your post-season collegiate football contest, I will purchase a ticket for myself and several of my colleagues.

    Sincerely,
    ASimPerson

  • Oh, I also suppose there’s a chance a Tech could end up just about anywhere in the ACC’s bowl hierarchy except for the Peach. I break it down like this. Wins against Miami and Georgia probably propel Tech all the way to the Gator. Win against Miami but a loss to Georgia puts Tech purely at the mercy of the bowl committees. I could see Tech anywhere from the Champs to the Car Care in that scenario, with a slight chance of having to go out west or to DC. 0-2 the rest of the way likely means the football team will need to start packing their bags for San Francisco. A loss to Miami but a win over UGA will probably just cause my brain to explode.
  • Alabama and Texas Tech control their own destines. The 1-loss teams that have an inside track of are probably Texas and Florida. Oregon State has games with Arizona and Oregon remaining to settle the matter of the Pac-10.
  • There’s now a glut of potential bowl eligible teams. I’ve listed the teams that are or might go 6-6 that didn’t get at-large bids at the bottom. The Big East will probably end up with 2 extra teams, which the Pac-10, Big 12, and SEC will all come up way short. The Sun Belt looks like a bunch of geniuses at the moment due to a pre-season deal that they would provide backup teams to three bowls, as this also gives their 6-6 teams priority over “true” at-large 6-6 teams.
  • Somewhat Non-Obvious Matchup of the Week: Iowa-Mississippi. Not really a game I want to watch, but notable because who would’ve expected either of these teams to appear in the Outback Bowl back in August? Of course, both benefit from very strong teams at the top of their conferences that will get them 2 BCS bids.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 12

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Notre Dame vs. Navy (@Baltimore, MD; CBS): Should Navy win this game? Probably not, despite everything ND still had more talent on both sides of the ball. Can Navy win this game? Almost certainly, and I’ll project them to the upset.
  • Ohio State @ Illinois (ESPN): That Pryor guy’s pretty good, I hear. OSU names their own score.
  • Northwestern @ Michigan (ESPN2): When people talk about how boring ACC football is, I think of Big Ten football and games like this. Despite how bad Michigan has been they could definitely win this game, but I think NU pulls it out anyway.
  • Indiana @ Pennsylvania State (BTN): Penn State had their bad game of the year last weekend, but unfortunately (for them) it was against a mediocre Iowa team and they don’t have the schedule to make up for it. They’ll get back on the Rose Bowl tracks against the Hoosiers, though.
  • Duke @ Clemson (Raycom/Gameplan): Man, I don’t know about Duke anymore. They started off so well! Then they, uh, lost to by far the worst team in the ACC last week. Whoops! Anyway, I’m going to go ahead and take the Tigers. Duke is just, you know, Duke at this point instead of “darkhorse ACC sleeper”.

12:30:

  • Texas @ Kansas (FSN): Texas doesn’t need William Shatner to explain that they can name their own score for this one.
  • Georgia @ Auburn (Raycom/Gameplan): Georgia may easily be one of the most disappointing teams in the country this year. And I couldn’t be happier about it. I’d be really happy if they, say, ended the season on a 2-note losing streak. Once again, though, my heart says “maybe they’ll play like this did last week against Kentucky but lose this time” but my brain says that “Auburn hasn’t beaten anyone worth a damn this year and has lost 4 straight against DI-A competition”. So I’ll go with the brain. For now.

3:30:

  • South Carolina @ Florida (CBS): South Carolina isn’t a bad football team, no. But what follows is the amount of points Florida has scored against SEC competition since their miscue against Ole Miss: 38, 51, 63, 49, and 42. For those of you as calculator dependent as I am, that’s 48.6 points per game. And that’s not terrible. What I’m trying to say is while The Visor going back to Gainesville makes a good storyline this probably won’t be a good game.
  • California @ Oregon State (ABC/Gameplan): Oregon State controlling their own destiny is the one thing I don’t think I’ve heard anyone on TV talking about. I know it’s sort of a long shot considering their remaining schedule, but still! This would have huge effects on the BCS bowls because Oregon State is not even sniffing the rankings. That said, it’s tough to predict how they will perform against the first decent team they’ve played since Utah. I’m going to test the waters here and predict an OSU win.
  • Minnesota @ Wisconsin (ESPN/ABC/Gameplan): Yet Another Big Ten Game That Involves a Trophy. Man, we should invent a trophy for our “rivalry” against, say, Duke! Yeah, there you go. Anyway, Wisconsin has dominated this series over the past 4 years, but I think despite the loss to Michigan last week Minnesota is poised to turn the tide.
  • North Carolina @ Maryland (Gameplan/ESPN/ABC): This is an ACC football game involving two teams within a couple games of each other. Most outside observers would say this is pretty much a toss-up, but UNC has really been the most consistent team in the conference. I am not even kidding. And for UMD, there are worse teams to lose to than VPI, but I think UNC is a reasonably talented football team and will win. (Now watch Maryland hang 50 on them for no apparent reason.)
  • Brigham Young @ Air Force (CBSCS): I was thinking about dropping the CBS College Sports games this week, but then I saw this matchup and realized I’d feature it anyway. While Air Force doesn’t control its own destiny in the Mountain West, it can sure affect BYU’s chance to knock Utah off at the end of the year. That said, I still think BYU is capable of defeating Air Force, blowout loss to TCU nonwithstanding.

6:30: Missouri @ Iowa State (FSN): Man, what is it like to lose eight straight games? Like, it’s one thing to lose all of them, Wazzou-style. But Iowa State started off 2-0! Anyway, Oklahoma State put up 59 on them a few weeks ago and I guess Mizzou will try to top that for style points or something.

7:00: Southern California @ Stanford (Versus): I almost went to this game, but apparently people are actually bothering to show up for this so the tickets are ridiculously expensive. Just out of spite, I will predict a USC win. Oh screw it, they’ll win yes, but I’m rooting for the Cardinal just because it’s more fun that way.

7:45: Mississippi State @ Alabama (ESPN): I think I said this last week but I think the odds of this edition of Alabama getting Croom’d this year are pretty slim. Anyway, if I had a cowbell I’d be ringing it throughout this contest, but in reality the Sabanators will probably win by 30 or 40.

8:00:

  • Boston College @ Florida State (Gameplan/ABC): Things FSU will not do this weekend: pass, as they’ve suspsended 5 WRs. Unfortunately for them, that was kind of a weapon for them this year. Do they still have the talent to beat BC? Probably, but so did ND and BC took care of business 17-0. This one will be a close, offensive-less ACC battle probably in the 14-10 neighborhood. I think BC will have the 14.
  • Oklahoma State @ Colorado (ABC/Gameplan): I’m not sure what this game did to deserve the prime time slot. OSU by like 30 or whatever.
  • Vanderbilt @ Kentucky (ESPN2): Vandy! You coulda been a contenda! But you had to lose the mojo and lose 4-straight, including two inexplicable losses to Duke and Mississippi State. 1 win! That’s how close you are! For once, I’ll take the sentimental favorite just because.

10:15: California-Los Angeles @ Washington (FSN): Sometimes I look forward to these late-night West Coast games, especially since they’re not really all that late here. Not this one, though. Anyway, UCLA all the way.

BCS Shenanigans: Oregon State Edition

So I based my bowl predictions on the idea that Oregon State will, actually, you know, lose again. But here’s OSU’s remaining schedule:

  • 11/15: vs. California
  • 11/22: @Arizona
  • 11/29: vs. Oregon

It’s probable they’ll lose to one of those teams. Though they beat USC, they subsequently lost to Utah the next week and their new found 4-game winning streak has been against the 4 worst teams in the Pac-10 (UCLA, Arizona State, Washington, and Washington State). But what if they don’t lose again? Well, they would earn the Pac-10’s auto-bid to the Rose Bowl. So let’s re-evaluate the BCS selection process, using the same set of assumptions I use in my normal bowl predictions:

  1. Set the auto-bids. Alabama and Texas Tech go to the title game, VPI goes to the Orange, Penn State and Oregon State go to the Rose.
  2. The Sugar gets first pick of the remaining auto-bid teams (the Big East winner, Utah, Texas, and Florida). The Sugar being where it is, they’ll be more than happy with another SEC team and take the Sugar.
  3. The Fiesta gets the next pick to replace Texas Tech. The Fiesta also has the first at-large pick, so they effectively get to setup whatever matchup they want. There are still 3 auto-bids left, so of those 3 let’s say they take Texas. The Fiesta probably doesn’t want Utah or the Big East champ, so they leave them to the Sugar and Orange to sort out while they take stock of the eligible at-large teams. The juciest prizes are almost certainly a 2-loss Ohio State and a 1-loss Southern Cal. All things being equal, I’m guessing they take USC.
  4. The Sugar and Orange then have to take the Big East champ and Utah.

So who does OSU’s win over Southern Cal effect the most? Monetarily, probably the other OSU, who will lose some $13 million or so by going to the Capital One Bowl instead of the Fiesta. So, for those of you stuck in Columbus or the other reaches of Ohio, I suggest you become big Cal, Arizona, and Oregon fans in a hurry.