BCS Shenanigans: Oregon State Edition

So I based my bowl predictions on the idea that Oregon State will, actually, you know, lose again. But here’s OSU’s remaining schedule:

  • 11/15: vs. California
  • 11/22: @Arizona
  • 11/29: vs. Oregon

It’s probable they’ll lose to one of those teams. Though they beat USC, they subsequently lost to Utah the next week and their new found 4-game winning streak has been against the 4 worst teams in the Pac-10 (UCLA, Arizona State, Washington, and Washington State). But what if they don’t lose again? Well, they would earn the Pac-10’s auto-bid to the Rose Bowl. So let’s re-evaluate the BCS selection process, using the same set of assumptions I use in my normal bowl predictions:

  1. Set the auto-bids. Alabama and Texas Tech go to the title game, VPI goes to the Orange, Penn State and Oregon State go to the Rose.
  2. The Sugar gets first pick of the remaining auto-bid teams (the Big East winner, Utah, Texas, and Florida). The Sugar being where it is, they’ll be more than happy with another SEC team and take the Sugar.
  3. The Fiesta gets the next pick to replace Texas Tech. The Fiesta also has the first at-large pick, so they effectively get to setup whatever matchup they want. There are still 3 auto-bids left, so of those 3 let’s say they take Texas. The Fiesta probably doesn’t want Utah or the Big East champ, so they leave them to the Sugar and Orange to sort out while they take stock of the eligible at-large teams. The juciest prizes are almost certainly a 2-loss Ohio State and a 1-loss Southern Cal. All things being equal, I’m guessing they take USC.
  4. The Sugar and Orange then have to take the Big East champ and Utah.

So who does OSU’s win over Southern Cal effect the most? Monetarily, probably the other OSU, who will lose some $13 million or so by going to the Capital One Bowl instead of the Fiesta. So, for those of you stuck in Columbus or the other reaches of Ohio, I suggest you become big Cal, Arizona, and Oregon fans in a hurry.