Bowl Predictions, Week 6

Not entirely lucid? Perhaps. But hey, they’re up and I’m ready to discuss them as proceed on Hate Week here at asimsports.

  • The BCS announced the other day that if there are not enough teams in the top 14 that can be selected, then the field can be expanded to the top 18. So, uh, hi there, Illinois? How are you doing?
  • We’ll see after this weekend how Hawaii fares, as their matchup against Boise State Friday night will at least get them into the top 14 with a victory. Either would probably qualify via “the Pitt rule” UConn upsets West Virginia. The likely destination for either would probably be the Sugar Bowl, which selects last this year.
  • As people who know me, well, know, I despise the so-called “University” of Alabama and everything it stands for. When they play Georgia I usually hope for the Earth to swallow them both whole or a local, but devastating, meteor impact. They did not do me any favors Saturday in their stupid loss to Louisiana-Monroe. The Music City Bowl wanted the loser of the Alabama-Auburn, and since FSU played ‘Bama this year this made Georgia Tech an attractive pick for the spot. Now at 6-6, Alabama can’t be picked ahead of any SEC team that finishes 7-5 or better, except in the off-chance they somehow beat Auburn Saturday. The ideal situation for me is that Auburn wins, we win, and end up there anyway. But FSU went to the Emerald last year and so it’s not looking good for the White and Gold. This week’s predictions “keep the faith”, as it were, but I’m not optimistic.
  • The SEC and Big Ten bowl picture is crowded. 10 of 11 Big Ten qualify, and 10 of 12 SEC teams already have and 5-6 Vandy meets Wake Forest Saturday. Because of NCAA rules, 6-6 won’t be good enough in these conferences, and even 7 wins may not be enough for some teams. I see Purdue, TCU, and Ball State getting 7 wins but being left out of their conference’s bowl picture. I see Iowa, Northwestern, and South Carolina finishing 6-6 and staying at home.
  • The predictions are a mixture of reality and attempts to see into the future. As you can see, I see USC and ASU getting at-large BCS bids, implying that USC beats Arizona State tomorrow and Oregon loses another game (which they have to, as they win any three-team tiebreaker with USC and ASU).

We’ve got at least two more weeks of predictions. We may see some bowls featuring smaller conferences start to announce their bids after this weekend, though. So stay tuned!

This Weekend in College Football: Week 12

Bowl predictions are up at the usual place.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Ohio State @ Michigan (ABC): This will be on the big screen at my apartment as a cadre of Big Ten alums invade. That said, with Hart having a high ankle sprain and Henne hurt, I like the Buckeyes here.
  • Northwestern @ Illinois (ESPN): Will Zook, well, Zook it up after pulling off the huge upset and having an outside show at a BCS bid? Probably not, Illini roll.
  • Syracuse @ Connecticut (ESPN2): Goodness Syracuse is a terrible. The Orange are ranked 114th nationally in total offense and 110th in defense. Does not bode well for them.
  • Tulsa @ Army (ESPN Classic): Tulsa’s a pretty decent team and controls their destiny in C-USA west. Army is not a very good football team, especially on defense. Tulsa rolls.
  • Maryland @ Florida State (Raycom/Gameplan): Part of one of the two ACC Raycom/Lincoln Financial Sports Games of the Week. Maryland is coming off their upset of Boston College while FSU just got rolled by VPI. Xavier Lee may be back for the Seminoles, but I really fail to see how that actually helps them. FSU also needs the win here to get to the 7-win mark going into Gainesville next week, which would increase their chances of staying in this part of the country for a bowl game. Maryland sits at 4 wins but this game and next week’s against NC State are both winnable. The line is FSU by 7.5, but to be honest I think that’s a little generous, and in fact I’m going to pick the upset here.
  • North Carolina @ Georgia Tech (Raycom/Gameplan): We need to play better than we did last week at Duke, that’s for damn sure. Even though we won I’m still not excited about this offense and Choice’s knee worries me greatly.

12:30:

  • Missouri @ Kansas State (FSN): Mizzou knows it has an oppurtunity to inject itself into the title game by winning out. Kansas State knows it lost to Iowa State two weeks ago and then got waxed by Nebraska last week. Tigers win.
  • Kentucky @ Georgia (LF/Gameplan): Alas, poor Kentucky! Ravaged by injuries, Kentucky sits at 7-3 with two games left against the SEC East’s top two teams. I hate to admit it, but Georgia is playing good football right now. The top two priorities for any team playing UGA right now has to be to pressure Matt Stafford and stop Moreno. Georgia wins here. And with typing that, I think I’m going to kill myself after this post. Ugh.

2:30: Duke @ Notre Dame (NBC): Ahahahahahahahahahaha. Okay, I’m in a good mood again. Seriously! Oh man. I will laugh so hard if Duke wins. And you know what? Why not? This is the year to beat ND folks. Line up and get your automatic W in South Bend! Woooo!

3:30:

  • Louisiana State @ Mississippi (CBS): I’m not really sure why the powers that be at CBS picked this over at a game that at least stands a chance of not being a blow out. I know it’s been close, but Ole Miss is terrible and LSU is really good. LSU rolls.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Michigan State (ESPN/ABC): It’s your irrelevant Big Ten game of the day! Man, at least the Big Ten season is over after this week. PSU should win.
  • Miami @ Virginia Tech (Gameplan/ABC/ESPN): Oh, Miami. On November 19, 2005, you were ranked 3 in the country when Georgia Tech beat you. Since then, you’re a decidedly un-“U”-like 13-12, including a blowout loss last week to Virginia in your last game ever in da “OB”. Yeah, folks, Miami sucks. Virginia Tech will hopefully not overlook them going into their division deciding showdown against Virginia next week.
  • Iowa State @ Kansas (Gameplan/ABC): Iowa State has won two straight Big 12 games. Let that sink in a minute. Can they make it three straight? Probably not, setting up the biggest Big 12 North showdown in a long, long time next week. That said, I do like ISU to cover 26.
  • California @ Washington (ABC/Gameplan): This season has fallen apart for Cal, but they’ll stop the bleeding against Washington this week and against Stanford in The Big Game in two weeks.

7:00: Oklahoma State @ Baylor (FSN): Why is Baylor on national television for the second week in a row? Who knows, and who cares? OSU rolls.

7:45:

  • West Virginia @ Cincinnati (ESPN): At first glance, you might think WVU is gonna roll here. Not so fast! This has huge Big East implications, though Cincy doesn’t quite control their own destiny (as they need UConn to lose again). That said, I still have to like the Mountaineers.
  • Boston College @ Clemson (ESPN2): Unthinkable a month ago, BC finds itself competing for the ACC Atlantic crown in Death Valley. At night. Not exactly a promising scenario for the Eagles. Clemson put up 44 on a pretty decent Wake team last week, continuing its roll on offense. Meanwhile, BC has lost two straight as their season falls apart around them. These are teams going in two different directions, folks, and I like the Tigers to continue putting up the points.

8:00: Oklahoma @ Texas Tech (ABC): Last game of the night. Texas Tech does not do the defense thing very well, as they tend to get blown out in their losses. If Oklahoma scores a couple touchdowns early, then this shouldn’t be a problem. TTU needs to keep the game in shootout mode. They probably won’t.

Week Twelve

I’m not going to apologize any more for posting this so late. You all have come to expect it by now. I could offer excuses like “I had too much to do” or “school is so demanding”, but that would be lame and a lie. The honest truth is that I am not as dedicated to my readers as I should be. Will you forgive me? I’m so sorry! (I really wasn’t going to apologize; sorry…doh!)

Enough. There have been better weeks of college football than week eleven, 2007. (You know something is wrong when NCState’s four-point win over UNC is news-worthy.) For some reason, Division I-A decided to forgo defense. Mississippi State was the only team to score less than 20 points and still win a game. Nebraska, still sore from a 76-39 spanking by Kansas, took it to the Jayhawks’ in-state rivals in a 73-31 decision. Navy and North Texas combined for 136 points in regulation, an NCAA record.

60 of the AP Poll’s 65 voters picked Ohio State as the best team in the nation before their collapse against Illinois. In my opinion, LSU is the real deal and now has the best chance of taking home the crystal ball in January. A few others could pull it off, though. The Big 12 has the best shot of securing BCS #2, since Kansas (12-0) or Missouri (11-1) will face Oklahoma (11-1) in the conference championship. Oregon, on the other hand, closes against Arizona, UCLA, and Oregon State. Not exactly the most impressive finish.

Matt Flynn does not care about the oncoming rushers behind him. He will dominate your defense anyway.

This week’s schedule looks a little more appealing than the last one. Here are the highlights (brought to you in Eastern Time and BCS rankings!):

#16!? Hawaii at Nevada (11 PM!?, ESPN2): Maybe undefeated Hawaii deserves a ranking, but not #16. The AP has them at #13. Above Florida. Ridiculous. I hope they drop one of their last three (at Nevada, at Boise State, Washington) so we don’t have to hear them whine when they don’t get a BCS bowl bid.

#7 Ohio State at #21 Michigan (12, ABC): Things at stake in this game: the Big Ten championship, Lloyd Carr’s job, and the patience of millions of fans outside the Big Ten who are not that impressed by this rivalry.

Off walks the “tough” Buckeye defense.

#23 Kentucky at #9 Georgia (12:30): Why isn’t this on television?

Duke at Notre Dame (2:30, NBC): Will the Fighting Irish make it to three wins? Maybe, but I doubt it. Duke almost beat Navy, Miami, and Wake Forest. Stanford beat USC, the greatest team of all time. Incidentally, the Cardinal hasn’t beaten Notre Dame in five straight meetings. Did you notice that Notre Dame lost to two service academies this year?

Raise your hands if you beat Notre Dame this season!

Take your pick from the following 3:30 massacres!
#1 LSU at 3-7 Ole Miss (CBS)
3-8 Iowa State at #3 Kansas (ABC)
5-5 Miami at #10 Virginia Tech (ABC)
#25 Wisconsin at 1-10 Minnesota (Big Ten Network)

Penn State at Michigan State (3:30, ABC): I’m going to have to ride the fence on this one. I probably know over fifty Penn State fans from my summers in Vermont, and my girlfriend Laura graduated from Michigan State. What’s my compromise? I’m going to cheer for the Nittany Lions during the first half and the Spartans during the second. Laura says the second half is the only one that matters, anyhow.

#17 Boston College at #15 Clemson (7:45, ESPN2): The only reason I care about this is that I picked Clemson to win their division. This game determines whether or not I was right. Go Tigers!

This Weekend in College Football: Week 11

As usual, all predictions wrong and all times eastern.

Noon:

  • Michigan @ Wisconsin (ESPN): In continuation with on branch of my harebrained predictions, Michigan wins, setting up what in August would’ve been considered a very unlikely match for the Big Ten championship.
  • Wake Forest @ Clemson (ESPN2): Clemson ruined Wake’s perfect season last year with a FG block returned for a TD. Both still have an ACC title game berth on the line, but at this juncture only Clemson controls their own destiny. Wake is by far the meatiest opponent they’ve played since their two losses. The Tigers have racked up 49 points per game since the losses to GT and VPI while allowing only about 14, but those opponents were Central Michigan, Maryland, and Duke. In fact, Clemson’s best win was probably the season opener over FSU. However, Wake’s resume isn’t that impressive either and they’re coming off a tough loss to Virginia last weekend. Clemson wins, but it’s closer than most think.
  • Indiana @ Northwestern (ESPN Classic): This joke has been made a thousand times over, probably, but there is nothing really “classic” about this matchup. Indiana is already bowl-eligible but NU must win this week or next week versus Illinois. Neither of these teams good, but Indiana at least managed to beat Iowa, so I’ll give them the edge.
  • North Carolina @ North Carolina State (Raycom/Gameplan): Don’t look, but NC State has won three straight games, including a victory over a OOC opponent UNC couldn’t beat, East Carolina. UNC did manage to beat Maryland, but only NC State has felled Virginia in ACC play thus far. I’m going with a rejuvenated Wolfpack here.

12:30:

  • Texas Agricultural & Mechanical @ Missouri (FSN): The Aggies simply got whipped last week at Oklahoma, and for the second consecutive week they played the 6th ranked team in the country. With all the questions surrounding the head coach’s job and 2 straight losses, I don’t expect a different result here. Mizzou wins.
  • Kansas State @ Nebraska (Versus): The “Don’t Care” meter is reaching awfully high levels here, but that said Nebraska is just hapless at this point. K-State wins.
  • Alabama @ Mississippi State (LF/Gameplan): Mississippi State is improved, yes. That doesn’t mean I’m about to start picking them to win anything until they play Ole Miss. ‘Bama wins.
  • Arkansas @ Tennessee (LF/Gameplan): Tennessee is still very much in control of its own destiny in the SEC East. Arkansas seems to have rediscovered its offense, which you’d think wouldn’t be difficult since their offense consists of entirely one person. Nonetheless, I like the Vols here. I’m willing to chalk up the loss to Alabama as a fluke, and besides, it’d be infinitely more amusing if Tennessee lost the SEC East race because of a loss to Vanderbilt next week.

1:00: Georgia Tech @ Duke (accselect.com): Tech’s first non-televised game of the year comes against Duke. I don’t really have much to say about the Jackets right now.

2:30: Air Force @ Notre Dame (NBC): Notre Dame loses to a service academy the second week in a row. Fun fact: Notre Dame has not lost to two service academies in one year since 1944.

3:30:

  • Auburn @ Georgia (CBS): This game is vastly more important for the Bulldogs than it is for the Tigers. If Georgia loses it significantly muddles their road to the SEC title game (more so than it already is since they still need Tennessee to lose). I think Auburn knows they’ve got nothing to lose and I expect an exciting game that hopefully will result in a victory for them.
  • Illinois @ Ohio State (ESPN/ABC): Illinois has a two game winning streak, sure. Of course, those games were Minnesota and Ball State. I can’t really think of any way the go up to Columbus and win.
  • Florida State @ Virginia Tech (Gameplan/ABC/ESPN): FSU seeks to ruin the dreams of another ACC program this week. By every conceivable measure Matt Ryan is a better quarterback than Sean Glennon, and FSU certainly flustered the former plenty last week. I don’t expect Glennon to repeat last week’s performance at all, but I also don’t see how FSU is going to score any points against the Virginia Tech defense in Blacksburg. Except a a defense-heavy game typical of the ACC with the Hokies edging out a narrow victory.
  • Arizona State @ California-Los Angeles (Gameplan/ABC): Hop aboard the train of the country’s most schizophrenic football team, the UCLA Bruins. See a team that can beat Cal but lose to Arizona, Utah, and Notre Dame! I mean, hell, there’s a chance they could even beat ASU this weekend. That said, it’s not a very good chance. Arizona State wins.
  • Texas Tech @ Texas (Gameplan/ABC): Mike Leach’s Texas Tech pirate ship ran aground a few weeks ago. They managed to patch the hull and fix some leaks and beat Baylor 48-7, but on the horizon is the frigate that is Texas and the veritable ship-of-the-line that is Oklahoma. The Texas frigate is also banged up, but it’s loaded with the appropriate amount of grapeshot to take the wind out of Tech’s sails. Longhorns win.

6:30: Baylor @ Oklahoma (FSN): Why is this a national broadcast on FSN? Who knows! Oklahoma rolls.

7:15: Virginia @ Miami (FL) (ESPN2): Miami is not a very good football team. Neither is Virginia, but they are exceedingly lucky. The Cavaliers average a mere 24 points per game and their average margin of victory is 6.6 points. Remove a blowout win over hapless Pittsburgh and the margin of victory shrinks to 3.3 points. That said, I don’t see this UM team defending the home turf in the “OB”. Cavs win.

7:45: Florida @ South Carolina (ESPN): It’s been an up-and-down season for the Gators, but for the Gamecocks it’s been down, down, down these past three weeks. South Carolina just can’t do much offensively and their defense seemed to have precious few answers against the one-dimensional Arkansas running attack last week. I don’t see much reason to pick them here.

8:00:

  • Kansas @ Oklahoma State (Gameplan/ABC): It’s difficult to pick against a 9-0 team, especially when a 5-4 Oklahoma State really isn’t even the best opponent they’ve beaten.
  • Southern California @ California (ABC/Gameplan): Still a reasonably big game for the Bears, but more for pride and bowl position more than anything else. USC sits at two losses and needs a lot of help in the Pac-10 race. It’s hard to get a feel for how these teams are going to tomorrow, so I’ll go ESPN-style and blindly take the Trojans.
  • Boston College @ Maryland (Gameplan/ABC): Maryland hasn’t looked good as of late, and BC has to know they still control their own destiny in the ACC race, even if they didn’t handle that pressure well with regards to the national title race. Maryland just isn’t very good and with their remaining schedule could miss a bowl. BC wins.

10:15: Washington @ Oregon State (FSN): It’s your late night terrible Pac-10 matchup of the week! Seriously. Beavers roll.

11:00: Fresno State @ Hawaii (ESPN2): Now this is a late night game perhaps worth watching. Easily the best opponent Hawaii has played all year, Fresno gives them a chance, perhaps, to finally get some attention from the computers and boost their BCS standing into the promised land. Fresno’s only WAC loss is to the other WAC powerhouse, Boise State. That said, with the game in Hawaii you have to think the Warriors have an advantage with their passing attack. Hawaii wins.