Bowl Games 2022: Opening Slate

It’s time once again for my annual exercise in bowl history and prognostication. The overall tally will be kept at the usual place.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Friday, December 16

11:30: Miami vs. Alabama-Birmingham (Bahamas Bowl @ Nassau, Bahamas; ESPN): UAB’s a solid favorite in this game, and for good reason: they’re better than Miami. I expect a solid Blazers win. Nonetheless, considering most of the weather in the US at the moment, watch this and think about how much warmer is probably is. There’s rain the forecast, yes, but I envy those temperatures in the upper 70’s and lower 80’s right about now.
SP+ line: UAB -12.1
Vegas line: UAB -11
Watchability tier: I
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: Miami played in last season’s Frisco Football Classic… thing and beat North Texas 27-14. This would be their sixth straight bowl if not for 2020, but they did go 6-3 that year so I’ll count it for now, plus that means they’ve effectively gone bowling every season since their revival. (Take that Paul Bryant Jr!) So anyway, that 2017 Bahamas Bowl didn’t go great (it was 41-6 loss to Ohio), but more recent efforts have been more successful, like last season’s 31-28 win over BYU in the Independence Bowl.
Announcers: Steve Levy and Joey Galloway

3:00: Troy vs. Texas-San Antonio (Cure Bowl @ Orlando, FL; ESPN):

Doo doo doo doo
Doo doo doo doo

Let me take your hand
I’m shaking like milk
Turning
Turning blue
All over the windows and the floors
Fires outside in the sky
Look as perfect as cats
The two of us
Together again
But it’s just the same
A stupid game

But I don’t care if you don’t
And I don’t feel if you don’t
And I don’t want it if you don’t
And I won’t say it
If you won’t say it first

You think you’re tired now
But wait until three
Laughing at the Christmas lights
You remember from December
All of this then back again
Another girl
Another name
Stay alive but stay the same
It’s just the same
A stupid game

But I don’t care if you don’t
And I don’t feel if you don’t
And I don’t want it if you don’t
And I won’t say it
If you won’t say it first

You can’t even see now
So you ask me the way
You wonder if it’s real
Because it couldn’t be rain
Through the right doorway
And into the white room
It used to be the dust that would lay here
When I came here alone

Doo doo doo doo
Doo doo doo doo
Let’s go to bed

Whereas the last one has an obvious favorite, this is setting up to be a G5 banger. These are the Sun Belt and C-USA champs, and two of the best G5 teams in the season. The other fun part is their opposing styles of play: Troy has a legit top 20 defense, and UTSA loves to score. But, hey, defense wins championships, and I’m going with the men of Troy (Alabama).
SP+ line: Troy -1.3
Vegas line: Troy -1
Watchability tier: III
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: This is Troy’s first bowl game since a 42-32 over Buffalo win in the Dollar General Bowl in 2018. This will be UTSA’s 3rd in a row, dating to a 31-24 loss to Louisiana in the 2020 First Responder Bowl. Last season they lost 38-24 to San Diego State in the Frisco Bowl.
Announcers: Beth Mowins and Kirk Morrison

Saturday, December 17

11:00: Louisville vs. Cincinnati (“Keg of Nails”; Fenway Bowl @ Boston, MA; ESPN): It’s not often we get a rivalry game in a bowl game, but here we are: the Keg of Nails is back! In addition, there’s some other eyebrow raising things about this game, like the part where Louisville was trying to find a reason to fire Scott Satterfield all year, expect he went out and delivered a Coach of the Year-type performance and got the Cards to a bowl game. Naturally, he had to know this, so when Luke Fickell finally jumped to the Big Ten, Satterfield decided to take his place at the school up the river. (He will not be coaching the bowl game (for either team).) Anyway, for this game, the Cards are definitely a lot more threatening on offense than the Bearcats, regardless if their QB plays or not. I’m going with them here.
SP+ line: Cincy -3.9
Vegas line: Cincy -1
Watchability tier: III
Previous meetings: These teams have a series that dates back to 1929, but we’ll pick it up in 1966. This was a rivalry until the ACC plucked Louisville for their prowess in football and basketball, which has definitely gone totally according to plan. At any rate, the Keg of Nails was contested every year from 1966 to 2013, excepting 1992 through 1996. In those 45 contests, the series is tied 22-22-1. Louisville won the last two in 2012 and 2013, by scores of 34-31 and 31-24.
Last bowl game: The Cardinals are in a bowl for the second year in a row. Last season, they los 31-28 to Air Force in the First Responder Bowl. This will be the Bearcats’s fifth in a row, startign with a 35-31 win over Virginia Tech in the 2018 Military Bowl. Last season they lost 27-6 to Alabama in the Cotton Bowl. (I maintain they still looked and did better than Michigan did against Georgia.)
Announcers: Chris Cotter and Mark Herzlich
Fun Fact: This is more about the rivalry series than the bowl game. I have, multiple occasions, traveled between Cincinnati and Louisville. It’s about an hundred mile drive, mostly on I-71. So they’re not far apart, but one’s in Kentucky and the other is on Ohio. I’m not sure a harder accent border exists anywhere else in the world. One of my best buddies out here grew up in Cincinatti and has what I would call a typical Midwestern accent, along with everyone else I’ve ever heard there. But I swear as soon as you cross the river it’s like you’re in Alabama. Remember, Louisville is pronounced something like “loo-uh-vull” and not “lou-ee-vill”.

2:30: Oregon State vs. Florida (Las Vegas Bowl @ Las Vegas, NV; ESPN): The Las Vegas Bowl has moved up in the world, and now pits a Pac-12 team against an SEC team. And as far as that goes, this figures to be pretty even. The Gators, of course, beat Pac-12 champs Utah to open the year, but while Florida sort of peaked there, the Beavers got better as the season went on. I really like them here to win outright, but the Gators to cover.
SP+ line: OSU -3.9
Vegas line: Beavers -10
Watchability tier: IV
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: The Beavers lost 24-13 to Utah State in last season’s LA Bowl. The Gators have been to five bowls in a row, dating to the time Spencer Hall gator chomped a child and the Gators won 41-15 over Michigan in the 2018 Peach Bowl. Last season was less fun, as they lost 29-17 to UCF in the Gasparilla Bowl, a fact no Knights has presumably not let any Gator they know forget.
Announcers: Dave Pasch and Kirk Herbstreit

3:30: Washington State vs. Fresno State (LA Bowl @ Los Angeles, CA; ABC): Meanwhile, the matchup formerly seen in the Vegas Bowl has moved down I-15 to LA. The Mountain West was just kinda bad this year, so I like Wazzu here. But this may still be worth watching to see if the Six Million Dollar Man himself, Jake Haener, can do it one last time for the Bulldogs. (To be clear, I’m just referring to Haener’s injuries and medical routing required for him to play football.)
SP+ line: Wazzu -6.6
Vegas line: Fresno -1
Watchability tier: III
Previous meetings: These teams have met four times, back in 1987, 1991, 1992, and 1994. Wazzu holds a 3-1 series lead and won the game 24-3.
Last bowl game: Wazzu lost 24-21 to Central Michigan in last season’s Sun Bowl. Fresno beat UTEP 31-24 in last season’s New Mexico Bowl.
Announcers: Joe Tessitore and Greg McElroy

5:45: Southern Mississippi vs. Rice (Lendingtree Bowl @ Mobile, AL; ESPN): This one’s got a little less shine than the other games on what almost resembles a usual college football Saturday, but it could be fun nonetheless. That said, I agree Southern Miss is pretty well favored here, but still, Rice is in a bowl! That’s pretty novel. (More on that below.)
SP+ line: USM -11.7
Vegas line: Southern Miss -6.5
Watchability tier: I
Previous meetings: There’s been twelve all-time meetings between these teams, and the result is that they’re even. The series dates to when both were in Conference USA. The first meeting was in 2007 and they played yearly from 2011 until… 2021. Rice has won the last two in a row, 30-6 and 24-19.
Last bowl game: USM’s last bowl game was a 30-13 loss to Tulane in the 2019-20 Armed Forces Bowl. Rice’s last bowl game was a 30-6 win over Fresno State in the 2014 Hawaii Bowl. If I had known it was going to take 8 years (and a lack of teams) for Rice to get back to the postseason, maybe I would’ve been a little less down on them in my 2014 write-up.
Announcers: Mike Monaco and Matt Stinchcomb

7:30: Southern Methodist vs. Brigham Young (New Mexico Bowl @ Albuquerque, NM; ABC): This one might be fun. Neither of these teams are as good as past versions, but I’m giving SMU because possibly no one likes scoring points as much as they apparently do.
SP+ line: SMU -6.2
Vegas line: Ponies -3
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: This will be the fourth meeting between these teams. They first met in the 1980 Holiday Bowl, where BYU won 46-45. BYU then won regular season contests in 1996 and 1997, 31-3 and 19-16.
Last bowl game: The Ponies were last seen in a postseason bowl getting waxed 52-28 to FAU in the 2019 Boca Raton Bowl. BYU’s been to five bowls in a row, dating to a 49-18 win over Western Michigan in the 2018 Potato Bowl. Last season, they lost 31-28 to UAB in the Independence Bowl.
Announcers: Tom Hart and Brock Osweiler

9:15: Boise State vs. North Texas (Frisco Bowl @ Frisco, TX; ESPN): Again, I don’t quite trust the Mountain West this year, but I’ll still take them over a C-USA team that fired their coach after the season.
SP+ line: Boise -6.9
Vegas line: Broncos -10
Watchability tier: I
Previous meetings: There’s been five meetings all-time between these teams, every year from 1996 through 2000 when both were members of the Big West. UNT actually leads the all-time series 3-2, but Boise won the last game 59-0.
Last bowl game:“Boise would’ve gone to a bowl game the last two seasons, but, well, some stuff happened. So if we count that, and also the 2018 First Responder Bowl they definitely showed up for but was canceled by weather, their bowl streak is at 21! But wait, there’s more! If you include the 2001 season where they went 8-4 but didn’t get invited to a bowl, you can go all the way back to 1999! That’s 24 in a row! But, unfortunately, it actually isn’t. In that 2002 game, they beat Iowa State 34-16 in the Humanitarian Bowl. And all that aside, their last bowl appearance was a 38-7 loss to Washington in the 2019 Las Vegas Bowl. North Texas has been to three straight postseason games, dating back to the 2020 Myrtle Beach Bowl, where, as a 4-6 team, they got beat 56-28 by App State. Last season they played in the Frisco Football “”Classic”” and lost 27-14 to Miami.
Announcers: Dave Neal and Deuce McAllister

Monday, December 19

2:30: Marshall vs. Connecticut (Myrtle Beach Bowl @ Conway, SC; ESPN): Huzzah! The Huskies are back in a bowl game! (More on that below.) And they earned it, too, thanks to some clutch late-season victories, most notably over Liberty. That said, the fun may well stop here. Marshall is a bit of a step and, well, I mean, there’s not much else you’re doing Monday afternoon less than a week before Christmas, right?
SP+ line: Thundering -17.2
Vegas line: Herd -10
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: Just one. Marshall defeated Uconn 16-10 in the 2015 St. Petersburg Bowl.
Last bowl game: The Herd have Thundered their way to six straight bowl games, going back to the 2018 New Mexico Bowl, where they beat Colorado State 31-28. Last season, however, was a bit of a mismatch and they lost 36-21 to Louisiana in the New Orleans Bowl. The Huskies, meanwhile, are in a bowl for the first time since a 16-10 loss to… Marshall in the 2015 St. Petersburg Bowl. I assume everyone around the UConn program remembers this and will be seeking vengeance.
Announcers: Mike Morgan and Eric Mac Lain

Tuesday, December 20

3:30: San Jose State vs. Eastern Michigan (Potato Bowl @ Boise, ID; ESPN): So far I’ve been lamenting the quality of the Mountain West but still picking that team anyway. That stops here. EMU will finally(!) win their first bowl game ever. Book it.
SP+ line: SJSU -2.8
Vegas line: SJSU -3.5
Watchability tier: I
Previous meetings: Just one. EMU beat SJSU 30-27 back in the 1987 California Bowl.
Last bowl game: The Spartys of Silicon Valley played their last postseason game in the 2020 Arizona Bowl, where they lost 34-13 to Ball State. And y’all. EMU has been playing football at what is considered the FBS level since 1975. This is their fifth bowl game… ever. Their first one was a 24-20 loss to Old Dominion in the 2016 Bahamas Bowl. They went bowling again in 2018 and 2019, and now they’ve gotten to two in a row once again. They lost last season 56-20 to Liberty in the Lendingtree Bowl. They’re still seeking their first bowl victory.
Announcers: Clay Matvick and Rocky Boiman

7:30: Toledo vs. Liberty (Boca Raton Bowl @ Boca Raton, FL; ESPN): Liberty had a dispiriting end to the season, and the only reason probably any of those players were there in the first place just departed for Auburn. That said, Toledo has a lot of problems living up their potential, but they did finally win the MAC this year, so here’s their chance. I’ll put this way: a lot of us will be cheering for the Rockets regardless.
SP+ line: Liberty -2
Vegas line: Toledo -5
Watchability tier: I
Previous meetings: They’ve met three times, but all were before Liberty made it to the FBS. So it’s no surprise then that Toledo has a 3-0 series lead.
Last bowl game: Toledo lost to MTSU 31-24 in last season’s Bahamas Bowl. Liberty has been to four straight bowl games, dating to the 2019 Cure Bowl, where they beat Georgia Southern 23-16. Last season they beat EMU 56-20 in the Lendingtree Bowl.
Announcers: Anish Shroff and Tim Hasselbeck

Wednesday, December 21

9:00: Western Kentucky vs. South Alabama (New Orleans Bowl @ New Orleans, LA; ESPN): Y’all, this one could be sneaky fun. Both teams are exciting and young, and even if the Dome isn’t always full for this one, it’s usually a good time. Keep an eye on it. I’m picking USA.
SP+ line: USA -9.3
Vegas line: USA -7.5
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: Just one, back in 2013 when both were in the Sun Belt. WKU won 31-24.
Last bowl game: This is WKU’s fourth postseason in a row, dating to the 2019 First Responder Bowl, where they beat Western Michigan 23-20. Last season they beat App State 59-38 in the Boca Raton Bowl. For “South Al”, this is their first bowl game since the 2016 Arizona Bowl, where htey lost 45-21 to Air Force.
Announcers: Wes Durham and Roddy Jones

Thursday, December 22

7:30: Baylor vs. Air Force (Armed Forces Bowl @ Fort Worth, TX; ESPN): Air Force was one of the best teams in the Mountain West this season, but [see above]. That said, I figure the Bears will just out-talent them, and Dave Aranda is smart enough to put together a defense to ground the Falcons with this much prep time.
SP+ line: Baylor -7.6
Vegas line: Baylor -5.5
Watchability tier: III
Previous meetings: There’s been three, but it’s been a while. They played in 1961, 1692, and 1977. Baylor won all three, including the most recent one 38-7.
Last bowl game: Baylor won last season’s Sugar Bowl over Ole Miss 21-7. Air Force beat Louisville 31-28 in last season’s First Responder Bowl.
Announcers: Brian Custer and Dustin Fox

Friday, December 23

3:00: Louisiana vs. Houston (Independence Bowl @ Shreveport, LA; ABC): While Houston is favored in this one, as that makes sense when talking about an American team versus the Sun Belt, it’s hard to really believe in Houston. They haven’t been that good all season. That said, the Ragin’ Cajuns don’t inspire a ton of confidence, even if this is a bit more on their home turf than for the Cougars. I still like Houston in this one, but probably the Cajuns to cover.
SP+ line: Houston -2.3
Vegas line: Houston -6.5
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: They’ve met six times, all from 1992 to 2006. Houston holds a 5-1 series lead, but the Ragin’ Cajuns won the last one 31-28.
Last bowl game: The Cajuns have Raged their way to six straight bowl games, dating back to a 41-24 loss to Tulane in the 2018 Cure Bowl. Last season they beat Marshall 36-21 in the New Orleans Bowl. Houston has now been to three straight bowl games because, well, somehow had to back in 2020. They lost 28-14 to Hawaii in the 2020 New Mexico Bowl. Last season, they bear Auburn 17-13 in the Birmingham Bowl.
Announcers: Dave Neal and Deuce McAllister

6:30: Wake Forest vs. Missouri (Gasparilla Bowl @ Tampa, FL; ESPN): I still don’t really know what happened to Sam Hartman after halftime of that Louisville game, and indeed the Demon Deacons lost 4 of their last 5. Mizzou comes in with a touch more momentum off a regular season ending upset of Arkansas, but that said they’ve still been in the news lately because they ducked renewing the Border War in Memphis and their coach showed up at the basketball version of said war with a sign saying that Kansas is in trouble with the NCAA. That was never really a cool thing to do to start with, much less in the Year of Our Lord Two Thousand Twenty-Two, and especially much less when your school winds up getting pasted by 28. Either way, I expect that this game here could be kind of spicy, but also a tight Mizzou win.
SP+ line: EVEN
Vegas line: Deacons -1
Watchability tier: III
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: Wake Forest has been to seven straight bowl games, which is actually kind of amazing. The streak started with a 34-26 win over Temple in the Military Bowl. Last season they beat Rutgers 38-10 in the Gator Bowl. Mizzou lost 24-22 to Army in last season’s Armed Forces Bowl.
Announcers: Chris Cotter and Mark Herzlich

Saturday, December 24

8:00: San Diego State vs. Middle Tennessee State (Hawaii Bowl @ Honolulu, HI; ESPN): Like the Bahamas Bowl at the top, this game feels like a reminder that hey, you, trying to keep warm on Christmas Eve, you could be in Honolulu right now. I mean, you don’t really even need to go watch this. I don’t really expect this to be high scoring or anything, and if you’re actually there, there’s probably more interesting things to do. But if you’re at home, either you can stream the endless loop of that yule log channel, check the live feed and see if anyone’s burned down that Swedish Yule Goat yet, or you can watch a college football game with occasional shots of reminders that in the deep dark of winter, there’s a sunny, warm place out there. Also SDSU will probably win.
SP+ line: SDSU -2.4
Vegas line: Aztecs -7
Watchability tier: I
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: Last season Fresno beat UTSA 38-24 in the Frisco Bowl. MTSU beat Toledo 31-24 in last season’s Bahamas Bowl. (Two tropical destinations in a row? Lucky them, I say.)
Announcers: Mike Monaco, Rodd Gilmore, and Quint Kessenich

 

This Weekend in College Football: Week 15

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Friday

7:00: Samford @ North Dakota State (NCAA Division I Championship Quarterfinal; ESPN2)

10:15: William & Mary @ Montana State (NCAA Division I Championship Quarterfinal; ESPN2)

10:30: Incarnate Word @ Sacramento State (NCAA Division I Championship Quarterfinal; ESPN+)

Saturday

Noon:

  • Holy Cross @ South Dakota State (NCAA Division I Championship Quarterfinal; ESPN)
  • West Florida @ Ferris State (NCAA Division II Championship Semifinal; ESPN+)
  • Wartburg @ Mount Union (NCAA Division III Championship Semifinal; ESPN+)

3:00: Army vs. Navy (@Philadelphia, PA; CBS): Y’all I want to talk about the Netherlands-Argentina game I just watched, but that’s not what we’re here for. What we are here for instead is one of the great rivalries in sports playing in one of the best atmospheres. I think Army has been better on the season, even with Navy showing some signs of life I think cadets from West Point will get it. That said, these games of late have all been tight and low scoring, and I expect more of the same here.

3:30:

  • Shepherd @ Colorado School of Mines (NCAA Division II Championship Semifinal; ESPN+)
  • Mary Hardin-Baylor @ North Central (NCAA Division III Championship Semifinal; ESPN+)

This Weekend in College Football: Week 14

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Friday

1:00: Akron @ Buffalo (ESPN+)

8:00:

  • Utah vs. Southern California (Pac-12 Championship Game @ Paradise, NV; FOX): By all rights, it should really be Washington versus USC here, but unfortunately the Huskies lost a conference game they shouldn’t have, so here we are. Typically, you’d expect Utah to play irascible defense along with an offense that grounds opponents into a fine powder. However, this season they’re just a touch off of where they were last year, and given the firepower at USC’s disposable the Trojans figure to cruise into the playoff once they get everything up and running.
  • North Texas @ Texas-San Antonio (Conference USA Championship Game; CBSS): Good for UNT for making it, but this figures to be UTSA’s show all the way.

Saturday

Noon:

  • Kansas State vs. Texas Christian (Big 12 Championship Game @ Arlington, TX; ABC): A lot of the country figures to be up early for the Netherlands-USA knockout stage game in the World Cup on Saturday. (I live on the West Coast, so I am personally dreading what I will need to do to be ready for a 7am kickoff, but such is life.) Naturally, that game should end close enough to this one to provide a natural place to flip the channel. TCU has perhaps been college football’s most “getting away with it” team this season, and the field goal fire drill they pulled off to Baylor only cemented this in everyone’s mind. K-State is, of course, always the perpetual spoiler in the Big 12, and I definitely rate a higher chance of an upset here than in the Pac-12. Shouts out especially to K-State’s latest iteration of Darren Sproles: Deuce Vaughn, listed at 5’6″ and 176 pounds. Despite his best efforts, I suspect this will be TCU’s game to lose.
  • Ohio vs. Toledo (Mid-American Championship @ Detroit, MI; ESPN): Toledo should win this, but on paper Toledo should win pretty much every MAC game. Plus, they have a reputation of losing the MAC Championship in brutal fashion, sort of like how Clemson used to do when “Clemsoning” was a thing. So I’m picking them, but there’s some caveats.
  • New Hampshire @ Holy Cross (NCAA Division I Championship Second Round; ESPN+)

2:00:

  • Furman @ Incarnate Word (NCAA Division I Championship Second Round; ESPN+)
  • Gardner-Webb @ William & Mary (NCAA Division I Championship Second Round; ESPN+)

3:00:

  • Valparaiso @ New Mexico State (Flofootball)
  • Southeastern Louisiana @ Samford (NCAA Division I Championship Second Round; ESPN+)
  • Weber State @ Montana State (NCAA Division I Championship Second Round; ESPN+)
  • Delaware @ South Dakota State (NCAA Division I Championship Second Round; ESPN+)

3:30:

  • Coastal Carolina @ Troy (Sun Belt Championship; ESPN): Troy has been sneaky good all year, considering that the most anyone has seen of them was that time App State threw a Hail Mary on them to win. They’ve been excellent outside of that, and with CCU’s quarterback likely out and their coach perhaps departing for greener pastures (monetarily, at least, because their turf is already their own shade of green) this looks like it’s finally time for Troy to shine.
  • Montana @ North Dakota State (NCAA Division I Championship Second Round; ESPN+)

4:00:

  • Fresno State @ Boise State (Mountain West Championship; FOX): The Mountain West has been… kind of bad this year, but at least the two best teams are in the title game. Naturally, a game in Boise this time year obliges one to check to see if it’s going to snow. While it’ll be plenty cold, snow isn’t really in the forecast. Regardless, Boise’s been the best team in the league all year, and I’m not sure why they’d stop now.
  • Louisiana State vs. Georgia (Southeastern Championship @ Atlanta, GA; CBS): Few were happier than to me than to see that UGA was kinda sleepy last weekend, letting my beloved Yellow Jackets hang around with a hope for way too long before we kind of took ourselves out of it. By my reckoning, that’s sort of the third time this season that UGA has played with their food to a point where their own fans probably started getting a bit uncomfortable. Will playing in front of what figures to be a wildly pro-“dawg” crowd against a deflated LSU team get them to fire on all cylinders from the jump? Despite losing to Texas A&M last weekend, LSU still isn’t terrible, and I can’t count out that they may start feeling their oats a little bit. Anyway, that’s a lot of metaphors the past few sentences, so let’s bring this home: I don’t think UGA is going to have any issues here, but if they look like they did against Mizzou, Kentucky, and us, there’ll be reason to watch this.
  • Central Florida @ Tulane (American Championship; ABC): This could well be the most evenly matched of the game we’ve looked at so far, at least on paper. UCF did beat Tulane during the season, but regardless they’ll be back in New Orleans and a rematch figures to benefit the Green Wave. I suspect I’ll be watching this, but I also suspect UCF will wind up winning.
  • Southern @ Jackson State (Southwest Championship; ESPN2)

5:00: Richmond @ Sacramento State (NCAA Division I Championship Second Round; ESPN+)

8:00:

  • North Carolina vs. Clemson (Atlantic Coast Championship @ Charlotte, NC; ABC): The vibes around this game already weren’t great before UNC and Clemson lost to rivals last weekend. While I still have Clemson winning, their offense looks so limited that if UNC gets up a couple scores it could well be the Tar Heels heading to the Orange Bowl.
  • Purdue vs. Michigan (Big Ten Championship @ Indianapolis, IN; FOX): The Wolverines did it again. And in a lot of ways, they look better than last year’s team that dealt with Iowa in this game by a 42-3 margin. Purdue isn’t as limited as Iowa is offensively, but nonetheless I won’t be surprised if this game winds up with a similar margin. Wonder if the entire maize and blue crowd have a song for this season to sing as time winds down at the end?

Bowl Predictions 2022: Week 5

They’ve been up at the usual place for a few days, but I haven’t had a chance to write anything until now.

The main thing I did for these update the CFP/NY6 to reflect the rivalry week results. If everything goes chalk this weekend, I suspect the CFP part of the equation won’t change much. However, there’s a a couple variables at work, and they both involve the Rose Bowl:

  1. How the Committee treats Utah if they lose to USC tomorrow. Currently Utah is one spot ahead of Washington. If the Committee drops Utah below Washington after what would be their 4th loss, 10-2 Washington will get the Rose Bowl nod. I’m currently predicting this will happen.
  2. I didn’t realize this, but according to the Rose Bowl’s own website they do have some prerogatives if they have a repeat team. In this case, it’d be Ohio State, who went to the Rose Bowl last season and in 2018.

If the Rose decides they don’t want Ohio State again, then Ohio State would then go to the Orange Bowl. Penn State would head to Pasadena, and Tennessee would go to the Cotton Bowl. This then triggers other downstream changes, as the ReliaQuest (formerly Outback) Bowl would then have to pick an ACC team. If I had to guess, that would most likely be ACC championship game loser, NC State, or Notre Dame.

We also found out earlier today that New Mexico State got a waiver from the NCAA to be bowl eligible. I am not sure of the details, but I believe they would still need to get to 6-6. They have scheduled Valpraiso this weekend, so I suspect it has to do with being able to count 2 FCS teams. I don’t believe Army has done this yet.

Otherwise, I’ll be keeping an eye on how things shake out this weekend and will try to have my final predictions up on Saturday night or Sunday morning before the playoff and other bowls are announced. Stay tuned!

This Weekend in College Football: Week 13

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • South Carolina @ Clemson (“Palmetto Bowl”; ABC): So last year a game South Carolina team came in brimming with confidence against a wounded Clemson and… got blown out. I suspect something similar will happen here.
  • Michigan @ Ohio State (“The Game”; FOX): At least one observer I follow has pointed out that Michigan’s physicality seems to be specifically designed to beat Ohio State. The project reached fruition last year. The question now is can Michigan pull the trick two years in a row, with a slightly stepped down defensive line and their all-everything running back Blake Corum missing most of the end of last week’s Illinois game. And Ohio State’s quarterback and receivers are still terrifying. The best way I’ve heard it said is that “if Ohio State wins, it’ll be a blowout, if Michigan wins, it’ll be close”. I agree. I also have the Wolverines pulling upset.
  • Georgia Tech @ Georgia (“Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate”; ESPN): TO HELL WITH GEORGIA.
  • West Virginia @ Oklahoma State (ESPN2): I’m not sure what’s happened to Oklahoma State in recent weeks, but with Neal Brown seemingly closer to the end of his tenure than the beginning, I still have to favor the Pokes.
  • Coastal Carolina @ James Madison (ESPNU): Over the last few weeks JMU has started to look like a team that is moving up to FBS. Coastal should have no problems.
  • Rutgers @ Maryland (BTN): Provided Maryland is not deflated by letting Ohio State come back and win last weekend, they’ll be okay here.
  • Western Kentucky @ Florida Atlantic (CBSS): WKU’s performance against Auburn last weekend is more the product of Auburn playing up to their potential moreso than an deficiencies with themselves. They’ll be fine here.
  • Georgia State @ Marshall (ESPN+)
  • New Mexico State @ Liberty (ESPN+)
  • Army @ Massachusetts (ESPN+)
  • Old Dominion @ South Alabama (ESPN+)
  • Elon @ Furman (NCAA Division I Championship, First Round; ESPN+)

1:00:

  • Kent State @ Buffalo (ESPN+)
  • East Carolina @ Temple (ESPN+)

1:30: Akron @ Northern Illinois (espn3.com)

2:00:

  • Rice @ North Texas (ESPN+)
  • Southern vs. Grambling State (“Bayou Classic” @ New Orleans, LA; NBC)
  • St. Francis @ Delaware (NCAA Division I Championship, First Round; ESPN+)
  • Fordham @ New Hampshire (NCAA Division I Championship, First Round; ESPN+)
  • Davidson @ Richmond (NCAA Division I Championship, First Round; ESPN+)

3:00: Louisville @ Kentucky (“Governor’s Cup”; SEC): Kentucky hasn’t looked themselves except for some brief glimpses against UGA in recent weeks. That, and Louisville seems determined to save Scott Satterfield’s job, so how can I pick against them?

3:30:

  • Auburn @ Alabama (“Iron Bowl”; CBS): With with Bama being a bit “down” this year, I just don’t see them losing to this Auburn team, even if these Iron Bowls often do consist of Auburn being weirdly competitive. (Not to mention that the team has rallied around interim Carnell “Cadillac” Williams.) So I’m not going to pick the Tigers to win, but I am going to say that this could be interesting.
  • Oregon @ Oregon State (ABC): This one could also be interesting. The game is in Corvallis and Oregon State is spicy, but I think Oregon’s talent will just be too much for them.
  • Minnesota @ Wisconsin (ESPN): I just don’t think Wisconsin is going to be able to keep up with the Gophers. The Axe stays in Minneapolis.
  • Memphis @ Southern Methodist (ESPN2): Memphis has looked more dangerous in recent weeks, but I think SMU is still a better team.
  • Troy @ Arkansas State (ESPNU): This game is here instead the Commonwealth Cup due to the recent events at UVA. I am not optimistic but I think we need to figure out some way to combat gun violence in this country. No other country in the world is like the US, at least, any country that we want to be grouped with in terms of life expectancy and standard of living. For the game itself, Troy is one of the better teams in the Sun Belt, and Arkansas State… isn’t. Trojans all the way.
  • Wake Forest @ Duke (ACCN): I have no idea what happened to Wake Forest the past few weeks. Even beating Syracuse by 10 didn’t feel that inspiring. I think they’re still a lot better than Duke, but I’m also still not sure about them.
  • Purdue @ Indiana (BTN): The Old Oaken Bucket is once again in doubt, and I also have some doubts about who will win. Thanks to Nebraska beating Iowa earlier today, Purdue has a chance to clinch the Big Ten West with a win. I think they’re probably the most palatable of the available options, so I’ll pick the Boilermakers.
  • Illinois @ Northwestern (BTN): Meanwhile, just outside of Chicago the Land of Lincoln Trophy will be contested and this game also has Big Ten West title stakes, at least for Illinois. A loss here keeps Iowa a live. Fortunately for Illinois, Northwestern is terrible.
  • Alabama-Birmingham @ Louisiana Tech (CBSS): Y’all, I got a little heavy above, but I just wanted to also say that this is the last full Saturday of the season and I think that’s worth enjoying. There’s some good World Cup matchups I will also be keeping an eye on, but the whole panoply of the college football universe is what makes Saturdays fun. UAB should win here, and also keep this one in mind.
  • Texas-El Paso @ Texas-San Antonio (Stadium): This one isn’t really a rivalry, but it sort of feels like it should be? Also UTEP needs to get this to get bowl eligible, but I’m picking UTSA because they’re, well, better.
  • Hawaii @ San Jose State (Team1Sports)

4:00:

  • Iowa State @ Texas Christian (FOX): This year just hasn’t been it for Iowa State. TCU survived by the skin of their teeth last week against Baylor, and I know that’s kind of their thing, but I think this one will be more comfortable.
  • Michigan State @ Pennsylvania State (FS1): Everyone’s favorite ugly trophy is once again on the line! That’s right, the Land Grant Trophy will probably… head back to Happy Valley, in keeping with my general sentiment that Penn State is so thoroughly the Third Best Team in the Big Ten.
  • Utah @ Colorado (“Rumble in the Rockies”; Pac12): Colorado is just so bad as to make anything else about this moot.
  • North Dakota @ Weber State (NCAA Division I Championship, First Round; ESPN+)

5:00:

  • Louisiana @ Texas State (ESPN+)
  • Southern Mississippi @ Louisiana-Monroe (ESPN+)
  • Gardner-Webb @ Eastern Kentucky (NCAA Division I Championship, First Round; ESPN+)

6:00:

  • Nevada @ Nevada-Las Vegas (“Battle for Nevada”; MTN)
  • Middle Tennessee State @ Florida International (espn3.com)
  • Appalachian State @ Georgia Southern (“Deeper than Hate”; ESPN+)

7:00:

  • Louisiana State @ Texas A&M (ESPN): Okay, so far this weekend we’ve had a traditionally crazy rivalry game get crazy (the Egg Bowl) and then Florida-Florida State went off the rails earlier tonight. But, let’s not forget that this sort of non-rivalry rivalry gave us SEVEN OVERTIMES back in 2018. I kinda want this one to be crazy as well, but TAMU is such a struggle bus on offense that I just can’t see them staying in this game unless LSU also struggles. This feels unlikely at this point.
  • Central Florida @ South Florida (“War on I-4”; ESPN2): With UCF leaving for the Big 12 after this season, this will be the last War on I-4 for the foreseeable future. This is kind of a bummer. The series has been paused before, and recent editions haven’t been close as USF declined. But the 2017 edition is one of the best college football games of all time, and it reminds us of what this could be. Either way, UCF figures to win in a rout.
  • Idaho @ Southeastern Louisiana (NCAA Division I Championship, First Round; ESPN+)

7:30:

  • Notre Dame @ Southern California (ABC): This figures to be one of the best versions of this matchup in recent memory. USC can score it, and Notre Dame has turned into a much more competent team over the course of the season. I still like USC but this could be fun.
  • Oklahoma @ Texas Tech (FS1): Oklahoma isn’t good, but I can’t pick them to lose to this Texas Tech.
  • Tulsa @ Houston (ESPNU): Houston all the way here.
  • Tennessee @ Vanderbilt (SEC): Hoo boy. Tennessee lost to South Carolina last weekend, and lost their quarterback in the process. By all accounts, they should be able to handle Vandy with their backup, but this Vandy team has now won 2 SEC games in a row and can’t be considered a pushover. Still picking the Vols, just… cautiously.
  • Syracuse @ Boston College (ACC/RSN): BC is still bad, ‘Cuse all the way.

8:00:

  • Kansas @ Kansas State (“Sunflower Showdown”; FOX): Hey, it’s relevant KU football in primetime! That said, um, K-State is still a lot better than them and it’s in the Little Apple. I don’t see an upset here.
  • Pittsburgh @ Miami (ACCN): Pitt figures to put the ‘Canes out of their misery.

9:00: Air Force @ San Diego State (CBSS): Should be Air Force all the way here.

10:00: Southeast Missouri @ Montana (NCAA Division I Championship, First Round; ESPN2)

10:30: Washington @ Washington State (“Apple Cup”; ESPN): Again, this is a game that shouldn’t be, but it’s just hard to trust that the Washington offense can be consistent enough for them to put Wazzu away. With the game on the Palouse, that means that this could be fun, even UDub eventually wins.

11:00: Brigham Young @ Stanford (FS1): And finally, the cap to the last full Saturday slate is… admittedly not great. But it’s college football, and it’s going to be a long day. I’m looking forward to it. I’ll pick BYU here, and remember: TO HELL WITH GEORGIA.