Sometimes, It Really is Better to be Lucky

We’re all familiar with the cliche “it’s better to be lucky than good”.

My Mom called me after the game GT-FSU game Saturday to discuss the miracle finish. (Video, in case you haven’t seen it.) I told her at the time that it was “the luckiest thing I’ve seen since I started watching Georgia Tech football”, even more so than the miracle finish at Clemson in 2004.

But then I thought about it, and decided perhaps I should do a little comparison.

2004 vs. Clemson 2008 vs. FSU
Background Clemson had the ball and needed only a first down to win the game. On first down, Charlie Whitehurst tucks and runs with plenty of open space in front of him. To avoid the tackle, he slides down half a yard short of the first down. Clemson is then stopped for no gain or a loss on the subsequent two downs. FSU intercepted a Jaybo Shaw pass with plenty of time left and began to drive. Tech had forced a 4th and 11 and a punt at one point, but Daryl Richard fell out of his stance and was called for offisdes. FSU went for it on 4th and 6 and made the first down, and the drive continued unabated to the Georgia Tech 4. With the clock winding down under a minute, FSU looked like they were going to score the game-winning TD, but even if they somehow didn’t they still just need a chip-shot field goal to tie.
The Break Clemson’s long snapper doesn’t quite get it to the punter. The Clemson punter falls on it at their own 12 yard line. FSU’s Jermaine Thomas carries the ball straight up the middle with only one hand on the football. Safety Cooper Taylor puts his helmet on the ball and it flies in the air into the end zone.
The Luck Clemson was up by 3. Had the Clemson punter had the presence of mind to pick the ball up and run with it into the end zone Clemson probably would have preserved the lead and been able to force Georgia Tech in worse field position on the subsequent kickoff. Freshman cornerback Rashaad Reid makes a, well, freshman mistake and tries to pick the bouncing ball up instead of falling on it. Two FSU players attempt to get the ball, but somehow Reid comes out of the ensuing pile-up with the ball and a touchback for Georgia Tech.
The Game Reggie Ball throws the first of what would become Georgia Tech’s staple red-zone play for the next 3 seasons, the simple fade to Calvin Johnson. Despite some excitement on the ensuing Clemson Hail Mary, Georgia Tech escapes with the win. The call is reviewed and the replays confirm the touchback call. With 45 seconds left, Jaybo kneels twice (FSU had a timeout) and the game is over.

Overall, I have to go back on what I told my Mom and say the Clemson win was still luckier, mainly because there was pretty much no reason for Tech to get the ball back in decent field position there (much less the Clemson 12). All Charlie Whitehusrt had to do was slide an additional half a yard to get a first down and the win. All Clemson had to do after that was gain a half a yard in two plays. And all they had to do after that was punt the football. In the FSU game, the fumble was caused by an athletic play, and while recovering the ball required a significant amount of luck it didn’t require 4 straight plays worth.

One of my friends from Tech wasn’t able to watch the game (I was, thanks to the magic of the Slingbox) and so I was giving updates via AIM. Here’s the (slightly edited) conversation.
(3:40:57 PM) Me: [FSU rushes] to the GT 4
(3:41:41 PM) Me: FUMBLE
(3:41:45 PM) Him: NO WAY
(3:41:45 PM) Me: TOUCHBACK
(3:41:49 PM) Me: IT’S A MIRACLE
(3:41:53 PM) Me: SNAP THE […] BALL
(3:42:01 PM) Me: it’s questionable
(3:42:05 PM) Me: snap the […] ball
(3:42:27 PM) Me: we put a helmet right [on it]
(3:42:30 PM) Me: I think we really have it
(3:42:55 PM) Me: CALL IS CONFIRMED
(3:42:57 PM) Me: TOUCHBACK
(3:42:58 PM) Him: eeeee
(3:42:59 PM) Me: GT BALL
(3:43:01 PM) Me: 45 SECONDS LEFT
(3:43:04 PM) Me: FSU HAS 1 TIMEOUT
(3:43:16 PM) Him: So help me god if we fumble
(3:43:29 PM) Me: COOPER TAYLOR FOCED IT OUT
(3:43:33 PM) Me: FORCED, EVEN
(3:43:44 PM) Me: GT WILL KNEEL
(3:43:51 PM) Me: THERE’S ONE
(3:45:23 PM) Me: BALL GAME
(3:45:30 PM) Him: gaaaaaaa
(3:46:06 PM) Me: they’re rushing the field
(3:46:17 PM) Him: hahahah
(3:47:57 PM) Me: wowowowow
(3:48:02 PM) Him: 49-3
(3:48:08 PM) Him: Florida is savaging Gerogia
(3:48:13 PM) Me: today
(3:48:15 PM) Me: is an excellent day

This Weekend in College Football: Week 10

Boo! In a hurry tonight, so let’s get this over with.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Wisconsin @ Michigan State (ESPN): I still can’t get over the virtual implosion of this Wisconsin team. MSU is coming off a huge win over Michigan and should (repeat, should) have no problem with the Badgers.
  • Northwestern @ Minnesota (ESPN2): The Big Ten’s two most resurgent programs face off in an epic battle! Well, I don’t know about “epic”, but they are basically playing for 3rd place (along with Michigan State) behind Penn State and Ohio State. That said, NU suffered a really bad loss to a really bad Indiana team last weekend, so I have to go with the Gilded Gophers here.
  • Michigan @ Purdue (BTN): Michgian is bad this year, but unfortunately not as bad as Purdue. Wolverines should pick up a win.
  • Miami @ Virginia (Raycom/Gameplan): I don’t know how this happened, but it turns out that Virginia is a decently good football team. Of course, they also got the SMQ Dr. Saturday kiss-of-death this week, but rational thought (insofar as it applies to the ACC this year) has to favor the Cavs. Also, it makes us look better, even if we do need them to lose.

12:30:

  • Kansas State @ Kansas (FSN): Kansas isn’t as good as everyone thought, but they are unfortunately good enough to beat KSU.
  • Auburn @ Mississippi (Raycom/Gameplan): I miss the days, of, oh, say, the last 4 years or so where this was an automatic pick. (Actually, it’s probably more than that, but still.) Things look pretty bleak for the Tigers, losers of 3 straight, but the only pin of the cap of Ole Miss is the freak upset for Florida. Given this is probably about even, I’ll take the home team here.

2:30: Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame (NBC): With South Florida’s loss yesterday, suddenly Pitt’s 5 game winning streak prior to losing to Rutgers last week is making me re-evaluate the Big East frontrunner. I think ND’s got this one in the bag.

3:30:

  • Georgia vs. Florida (@Jacksonville, FL; CBS): The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party name may not really make any sense (it assumes fans of either school can afford cocktails, baffling when you consider how much cheaper PBR, Steel Reserve, or Bud Light is) but it’s still better than nothing, which is what it officially is now. This game is hideously difficult to pick. Though UGA’s loss may be better, UF has really put things together and both sport blowouts against LSU in which they scored 50 points. Therefore, I will pick who I want to win (UF) and just say this game will be on my TV while I’m Slingboxin’ the GT game.
  • Oregon @ California (ABC/Gameplan): Cal, I guess? Man I don’t care about this game, but it probably could go either way.
  • Oklahoma State @ Iowa State (Gameplan/ABC): This game will end sometime Monday morning because Oklahoma State will not stop scoring until then. Seriously.
  • Florida State @ Georgia Tech (Gameplan/ESPN/ABC): “Fun” fact: since FSU joined the ACC in 1992, only two ACC teams have failed to beat them at least once. They, of course, Georgia Tech and Duke. Duke you can understand, but while GT hasn’t exactly had a sustained run of success since then (see: 1993-1997), they also couldn’t beat them with Joe Hamilton. GT’s second best player in this time period, Calvin Johnson, never actually got to play the Seminoles because in their infinite wisdom the ACC put FSU and GT in seperate divisions, so they have not met since 2003. 2003 was, of course, my freshman year. Tech played FSU the week after the Auburn upset and led 13-0 going into the 4th quarter. FSU then scored 14 points and came back, winning 14-13. That is basically the series in a nutshell. Next to beating UGA, I cannot think of a sweeter win we could get this season.
  • Iowa @ Illinois (ESPN/ABC): Illinois, I guess? I’m in a hurry here.
  • Temple @ Navy (CBSCS): Navy, by a few touchdowns. Over/under on the number of pass attempts by the Midshipmen is about 3.

6:30: Washington @ Southern California (FSN): The line is something absurd, like 40 points or something? If I were a betting man, I still might take USC to cover.

7:00: Tennessee @ South Carolina (ESPN2): The other USC is less formidiable, and their opponent is slightly better. That isn’t really saying much, though, for Tennessee. Spurrier-ball should prevail.

8:00:

  • Texas @ Texas Tech (ABC): I don’t need to tell you how big this game is, thanks to ESPN. Both these teams are really good. I can’t really even think of any positives or negatives here except that Texas’s schedule to this point has been superior. So for absolutely no rational reason, I like the Longhorns here.
  • Nebraska @ Oklahoma (ESPN): I don’t have time to go link it, but as Dr. Saturday said this game sure isn’t what it used to be. Especailly since Oklahoma should dominate here.
  • Texas Christian @ Nevada-Las Vegas (CBSCS): I think TCU is pretty legit, and so I’ll take them here in this MWC road contest.

10:00: Arizona State @ Oregon State (FSN): Finally. ASU has been a disappointment, to say the least. I’d go into why, but I need to go so I’m taking the Beavers.

Bowl Predictions, Week 2

As explained last week, this edition will just hit the high notes. To wit:

  • Still mainting the winner of the Big 12 versus the winner of the SEC will go to the national title game, provide they’re undefeated. That will be a challenge for both Texas and Alabama. The biggest question probably is what happens if Texas Tech wins Saturday.
  • The SEC title game loser will probably end up in the Capital One Bowl, if I had to guess. This somewhat ironically means the loser of the the Cocktail Party this weekend is in a better position to go to a BCS bowl.
  • There is something to the argument the Fiesta could take, say, Utah but I think instead they’ll take the safe bet of someone like Ohio State, who were not hit that bad in the rankings and should easily finish eligible for a BCS at-large.
  • The ACC saw a huge shakeup, with GT and VPI losing. This is bound to be the most volatile conference week-to-week.
  • Once again, the college football world will barely scrape by with enough bowl eligible teams. And I’m working under somewhat optimistic assumptions. I have yet to find any documentation on what the NCAA or bowls would do if there are not enough bowl eligible teams. Right now it’s looking like a good payday for the WAC, MAC, and especially the Sun Belt.
  • Somewhat Non-Obvious Matchup of the Week: Car Care Bowl, Maryland vs. West Virginia. These two schools met every year from 1980 to 2007 but chose not to renew the rivalry in 2008. I don’t know/remember if this is a named game or not, but nonetheless it should draw an enthusiastic crowd down in Charlotte.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 9

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong. And probably a little more hasty than usual.

Noon:

  • Texas Tech @ Kansas (ESPN): I don’t think it’ll be terribly relevant if TTU misses all of their extra points, they should still win by a few scores.
  • Illinois @ Wisconsin (ESPN2): Wisconsin has been losing everywhere, and I doubt the skid will stop here. Though it’s definitely hard to tell because UIUC lost at home to UMN last week, but I’ll stick with them anyway.
  • Minnesota @ Purdue (ESPN Classic): I feel sorry for Joe Tiller. I’ve also heard there’s some internal discord up in West Lafayette. Minnesota should roll.
  • Northwestern @ Indiana (BTN): Wooooo, another Big Ten game. Anyone notice that Northwestern is 6-1? It sufficies to say that they weill be 7-1 on Sunday.
  • Boston College @ North Carolina (Raycom/Gameplan): Big game for both teams. Can UNC recover from their loss last week and the loss of their key offensive player? Can BC stay afloat in the ACC Atlantic? No and yes, respectively.

12:30:

  • Oklahoma @ Kansas State (FSN): Oklahoma is setting up nicely for a BCS run. Their next three games (this one, Nebraksa, TAMU) are very winnable, but at the end of the schedule be dragons in the form of TTU and Oklahoma State. I guess it goes without saying I like OU here.
  • Baylor @ Nebraska (Versus): Baylor showed some initial promise at the beginning of the year, but they’ve lately faltered. Then again, many teams will falter against the two schools with “Oklahoma” in their name. That said, this game is up in Lincoln and I’ve picked a lot of read teams so far so I’m going with the Huskers here.
  • Kentucky @ Florida (Raycom/Gameplan): Florida’s already had a bad home loss this year. Hopefully for them they learned their lesson and take care of business going into the Cocktail Party next week.

3:30:

  • Georgia @ Louisiana State (CBS): On paper, UGA should probably win this game. But there are several tangible factors, namely, 90,000 very drunk Cajuns. I’m going with the (admittedly) slight upset here and picking LSU.
  • California-Los Angeles @ California (ABC/Gameplan): Outside of USC and maybe Arizona (can’t believe I just said that) this rest of the Pac-10 has been very unprediactable this year. That said, this is UCLA’s 3rd road game of the year and they got blown out in their previous two. This might not be a blowout, but I will still take Cal.
  • Oklahoma State @ Texas (Gameplan/ABC): I don’t really need to tell you how huge this game is, nationally and in the Big 12. Definitely no doubt that the Big 12 South is back after a couple years of the North domination. Now, as for the game, both these teams are good but Texas has some semblance of a defense, so I like them here.
  • Michigan State @ Michigan (ESPN2/ABC): MSU has not won in this series since 2001. A series of blowout and heartbreaks have followed, but if any year is going to be the year for the Spartans, I have to say this is it.
  • Virginia Tech @ Florida State (Gameplan/ESPN2/ABC): We (as in GT) badly need FSU to win here, even with FSU coming into Atlanta next week. That said, I’m not sure how confident I am picking either team. VPI has been winning their games with some combination of buggle gum and duct tape. FSU’s rise to 5-1 hasn’t been much better and they don’t have a win significantly better than any of VPI’s. There’s not really any logical reason VPI should win here, but since I want FSU to win I’ll take VPI.
  • Southern Methodist @ Navy (CBSCS): I was baffled when June Jones took the SMU job. I am even slightly more baffled now. Sure, SMU has more money, but in terms of college football prestige it’s almost a lateral move. Needless to say, I’m picking Navy.
  • Virginia @ Georgia Tech (ESPNU): It’s homecoming in the ATL, so naturally I went to the away game last week. Huge wins for both these teams last week. GT still looked disorganized on offense. Early in the 3rd quarter, they had a few chance to really salt the game away but failed, letting Clemson come all the back. But Tech did not fold (something that I saw pletny of the previous 4 seasons) and put together the winning drive. Will Tech be more consistent tomorrow against a resurgent UVA team? We shall see. Well, I probably won’t since it’s on das U but still.

6:30: Colorado @ Missouri (FSN): 1990 nevar forget!!! That said, despitre recent sturggle Mizzou should be heavy favorites here, and if hey are, I agree.

7:45: Alabama @ Tennessee (ESPN): Technically, tomorrow is the fourth Saturday in October, but nonetheless these two meet once again. A drubbing of Miss State last week has done little to reassure the orange-clad Volunteers, and for good reason. While I am not sure Alabama will finish undefeated, they should pull it out in Knoxville.

8:00:

  • Pennsylvania State @ Ohio State (ABC): It’s Penn State! It’s Ohio State! It’s Big Ten Primetime football! With that out of the way, I think OSU has a real chance here, especially with the game in Columbus. In my mind, this game is about a push. But if OSU falls behind early they are boned, in my opinion. That said, I think they have a real chance but I am picking PSU by the slimmest of margins.
  • Notre Dame @ Washington (ESPN2): I don’t know if y’all noticed, but Washington is really bad this year. ND should have no trouble.
  • Southern Mississippi @ Memphis (CBSCS): Why does CBSCS show games like this? Can’t they feature Tulsa or ECU or something? Seriously. Because I know nothing about these teams, I am taking Memphis.

10:15: Southern California @ Arizona (FSN): Is Arizona legitimite? They’re certainly not terrible, though they feature losses to New Mexico and Stanford. Are they good enough to beat a USC that seems to have gotten their, er, stuff together? Probably not.

Bowl predictions should be on time this weekend. Enjoy your Saturday!