Category Archives: On TV This Weekend

This Weekend in College Football: Week 7

Programming note: first bowl predictions of the year will go up on Sunday!

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Oklahoma vs. Texas (@Dallas, TX; ABC): Ah, the Red River Shootout, thank you very much. At any rate, I think this one will be worth me getting up early for, which as you may note by the time this is posted (and, most likely, the numerous grammatical and spelling errors) is no small feat, indeed. I also think it’ll be a small feat for OU to win this one, but it is also the last chance for them to salvage their national aspirations this season. That said, I think Texas proves their worth here.
  • Iowa @ Wisconsin (ESPN): Iowa’s been winning in a very, well, Iowa-like fashion. The 30-28 win over Michigan was a downright barnburner – they’ve only scored more against Iowa State. Wisconsin, on the flip side, had been rolling offensively until they ran into Ohio State. Though they still outgained the Buckeyes by almost 200 yards, they also threw two interceptions returned for touchdown and allowed a kickoff return to go the distance. That said, I never quite trust Iowa, so I have to go with Wisconsin here to knock off the Big Ten’s last unbeaten.
  • Northwestern @ Michigan State (ESPN2): I’d make more Kafka jokes, but Doc Saturday already beat me to the punch. I also agree with the Doc re: Northwestern’s chances, as this should be really high flying, especially for a Big Ten game. I’ll stick with Sparty, though.
  • Ohio State @ Purdue (BTN): If it weren’t for Illinois trying to get Ron Zook fired, Purdue would be the worst team in the Big Ten this year. Ohio State should be able to get back on track offensively against the Boilermakers.
  • Georgia @ Vanderbilt (SEC): As I recently explained to a friend of mine (who went to Vandy) last weekend when discussing Vandy’s loss to Army, “This is basically the same offensive Vandy had last year, and basically teams aren’t giving the ball to them for free anymore.” That said, they’re still +5 through 6 games, but the offense is just so bad: 18.8 points per game, 35% on third downs, etc. Meanwhile, in terms of ye ole schadenfraude full panic mode is on over in Athens after they made Jonathan Crompton look like Peyton last weekend in Knoxville. Unfortunately, I have to think the UGA defense will hold up slightly better against Vandy. Unfortunately.
  • Wake Forest @ Clemson (Raycom/Gameplan): Since this is an ACC Atlantic game, I’m just going to flip a coin. Heads is Wake, tails is Clemson…… tails it is!

12:30: Mississippi State @ Middle Tennessee State (ESPNU): Well, I think MSU can beat MTSU. Right? I mean, Miss State is a little better than they were last year, aren’t they?

3:30:

  • Arkansas @ Florida (CBS): Somehow I just don’t see Arkansas hanging 30, much less 40, on Florida’s defense. Just no way. UF takes care of business.
  • Southern California @ Notre Dame (NBC): Reports of optimism abound from South Bend. I don’t they’re well founded, though. Especially after the combined 57-9 beatdown USC has distributed the past two weeks, while Notre Dame hasn’t really shown they can do this “defense” thing. Also, this should give us a good clean transitive break, since Washington lost to Notre Dame but USC should beat Notre DAme.
  • Minnesota @ Pennsylvania State (ESPN/ABC): I think Minnesota is very solidly in the middle of the pack of the Big Ten. The natural order of things should be returned with a PSU victory here.
  • North Carolina State @ Boston College (Gameplan/ABC): Well, BC’s at home, which means their offensive might show up this week after not making the trip to Blacksburg. Meanwhile, with losses to Wake and Duke, I think it’s safe to say that NC State is one of the worst teams in the ACC. That said, that doesn’t necessarily mean anything (note that Virginia and Maryland still have conference victories), but I feel good enough about BC here to not have to resort to the ACC Atlantic coin flip.
  • Texas Tech @ Nebraska (Gameplan/ESPN/ABC): Hard to get a read here, since they pretty much each have beaten teams worse than them and lost to teams that were better than them. (Yes, I remember Houston that beat TTU.) Nebraska’s last effort was the 27-point fourth quarter in a driving rainstorm in Columbia that led to their 27-12 victory over Mizzou last Thursday. Mean, TTU did their thing against K-State, throwing for 500 yards and scoring 66 points. I suspect this game will be somewhere in between, but a Nebraska victory.
  • California @ California-Los Angeles (ABC/Gameplan): Well, we know now these are probably the two worst teams in the Pac-10 outside of Pullman. Both these teams have been struggling on offense, but Cal just has to have more talent offensively, right? Jahvid Best has to reassert himself at some point, doesn’t he? Cal can’t be this bad, can they?
  • Houston @ Tulane (CBSCS): Houston should be able to name the score for this one.

4:00:

  • Colorado State @ Texas Christian (Versus): TCU has to come out ready for this game. Colorado State isn’t terrible, but they’re definitely an opponent TCU should be able to beat easily. They just can’t get caught looking forward to BYU next week, or else CSU is decent enough to take advantage.
  • Virginia @ Maryland (ESPNU): It’s the ACC Atlantic Slap Fight of the Week! Ugh. If you hate football, you might like this game. I don’t know what else to say. Anyway, it’s back to the coin flip: UVA is head and UMD is tails…. tails.

6:00: Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech (ESPN2): If I were less exhausted, I would have an extensive preview of this game. This is a must-win for GT, no two ways around it. With a loss, GT is pretty much eliminated from ACC title game contention, barring basically a repeat of, well, last year. My main worries in this game are: 1) VPI’s defensive line and 2) our defense. We haven’t played a team since Miami (and to a small extent, UNC) that was able to get a great interior rush and really disrupt what we’re trying to on the offensive. (That said, whenever a DT is constantly in your QB’s face, it doesn’t really matter which offense you run.) Miami did have another advantage as well in their speedy corners and linebackers, that were able to pretty much go outside because their defensive line was owning our offensive line all night. As a result – there was no where for the offense to go. I don’t know if VPI has the same type of talent on the edges, but if we allow their DTs to control the offensive line that is not good for Tech.
As for the defense, well, they’re not very good. Perhaps not coincidentally, Tech’s biggest problem is the lack of pass rush, which leads to QBs with all day to throw because they never have anyone in their face. At one point in the first half last week, we actually ran an all-out blitz and FSU still scored because it didn’t work. Tyrod Taylor is faster than anyone in our front 7 most likely, so forcing him out of the pocket is not necessarily a great thing. If our D-linemen do find themselves getting to him, they must make the tackle and not let him escape. He is throwing better this year and is now a competent passer. Therefore, it is imperative we show some semblance of a defense this week, because I don’t think we’ll put up 40 against VPI.

7:00:

  • Kansas @ Colorado (FSN): Colorado: still bad. KU: still scoring lots of points. This shouldn’t be hard to figure out.
  • Illinois @ Indiana (BTN): The plan for Indiana has to be this. They sit at 3-3, having lost 3 straight including the inexplicable 40-point(!) loss to Virginia. (Seriously, how the hell did that happen?) Illinois and Purdue are the most winnable games left on the schedule, getting them to 5-3. The problem is, the other games are against Northwestern (competent), Iowa (uh-oh), Wisconsin (oh man), and Penn State (there goes that). So this is a must-win, in a game they should win.
  • Alabama-Birmingham @ Mississippi (SEC): UAB does have a winning record in C-USA! Unfortunately for them, Ole Miss is not in Conference USA.

7:30:

  • Stanford @ Arizona (Versus): I got on the Cardinal bandwagon, and doggone it I’m going to go down with the ship.
  • Kentucky @ Auburn (ESPNU): Well, you can’t win ’em all, Auburn, but Kentucky should help get that chin back up.
  • University of Miami @ Central Florida (CBSCS): Yes, that’s “da U” up in Orlando. That said, they should do their thing and come out with a win. (This hast to be a 3-for-1 deal, right?)

7:45: South Carolina @ Alabama (ESPN): I’m running out of steam here. USC should suffer their second loss here. I hate to say it, but I think ‘Bama is just that good.

9:15: Missouri @ Oklahoma State (ESPN2): Welcome to the “lowered expectations” bowl! Both these teams have struggled in their own way, and the 1-loss records don’t really tell us much. If OSU gets Dez Bryant back, then the should win. Otherwise, it’s Mizzou.

10:15: Washington @ Arizona State (FSN): Arizona State just isn’t very good. I have to pick U-Dub here.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 6

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Auburn @ Arkansas (ESPN): These are two of the SEC’s higher scoring offenses, but also two of the worst defenses. Auburn’s been a little more consistent with regards to both aspects, but scored “only” 26 against Tennessee. (It should be noted Tennessee is the best defense Auburn has faced to date.) Arkansas, to its credit, recovered from the UGA loss and the embarrassment against against ‘Bama to absolutely cream a terrible Texas A&M team. Again, I think this’ll be pretty high scoring, but in the end I think Auburn will get the ball last and probably win.
  • Purdue @ Minnesota (ESPN2): That win over Toledo is starting to get a bit long in the tooth for the Boilermakers, losers of four straight including consecutive close losses to Notre Dame (understandable) and Northwester (less so). Except for the Cal game, Minnesota has rarely been outplayed this year (though the score against Wisconsin was probably closer than the actual game). That said, there’s not much reason to be optimistic about Purdue right now, so I’ll take the Gophers.
  • Vanderbilt @ Army (CBSCS): Vandy’s turnover margin, while still positive, is down 0.8 turnovers a game so far this year. This year’s Vandy offense isn’t actually worse than last year’s, but when you go from the 112th ranked offense to the 83rd, well, there was really nowhere else to go. So a date with Army is probably just what the doctor ordered for the ‘Dores, who have beaten up on their out-of-conference opponents 81-17 but have only mustered 19 points against SEC foes.
  • Eastern Illinois @ Pennsylvania State (ESPN Classic): Penn State.
  • Michigan State @ Illinois (BTN): If you could look up “reeling” in the dictionary, the University of Illinois logo would probably right next to it. Provided Michigan State doesn’t get caught up in the fact they beat Michigan last weekend, they should be able to take care of business.
  • Georgia @ Tennessee (SEC/Gameplan): Things UGA does well: score points. Things Tennessee does well: play some semblance of defense. What happen when these forces collide in Knoxville? Probably produce a result similar to what we saw last weekend: UGa puts up less than their averages but their ability to move the ball at all puts them past the Vols in the end.
  • Boston College @ Virginia Tech (Raycom/Gameplan): I would like to take a moment to point out that the only ACC Atlantic teams with winning conference records are Boston College and Maryland. Let that sink in for a moment. Maryland, who has lost two straight to Middle Tennessee State and very nearly lost to James Madison in overtime. Boston College, who against Clemson not three weeks ago put up 54 yards and 4 first downs. (Since this is the ACC we’re talking about, I should clarify that BC did, in fact, lose that game.) Virginia Tech, by far the most consistent team in the conference since they joined, has done their usual thing and rolled off 4 straight, though they looked a bit lackluster against Duke last weekend. The logical pick here is VPI, and for the sake of my sanity, that’s what I’m going with.

12:30:

  • Oklahoma State @ Texas Agricultural and Mechanical (FSN): Oklahoma State is lacking their best player thanks to some off-the-field shenanigans involving “Neon” Deon “Prime Time” Sanders. Yes, I know TAMU is 3-1 and all, but against the only team they’ve played that isn’t chopped liver (sorry UAB fans) they laid an egg. I think OSU still wins this game, but not by as much as they should.
  • Iowa State @ Kansas (Versus): Speaking of terrible teams that got 3 (or more) wins off terrible patsies, Iowa State should lose to Kansas.
  • Houston @ Mississippi State (ESPNU): If you looked up “laid an egg after the most important win in school history”…. okay, I think you all get where I’m going with this. I will say that Miss State is a decent football team, however, they seem to have forgotten that putting the ball on the ground is a bad thing. Provided the Cougars can pick themselves back off the ground, I think they should be able to win this one. It would also probably help if they don’t allow Miss State to run up 581 total yards of offense (of which one player was responsible for 262 yards).

3:30:

  • Alabama @ Mississippi (CBS): Okay, Ole Miss isn’t as good as we thought. But they’re probably not that bad either. Will it be enough to stop the Alabama juggernaut? Probably not. (Unfortunately.)
  • Oregon @ California-Los Angeles (ABC/Gameplan): UCLA didn’t put up much resistance last week in their loss to Stanford. On the flip side, Oregon has been rampaging, er, beating up, er, winning all their games since the debacle in Boise to open the season, and I don’t see why the streak will end in Pasadena.
  • Wisconsin @ Ohio State (ESPN/ABC/Gameplan): Wisconsin kept up their habit of winning by 1 score or less in last week’s 31-28 win over UMN. Ohio State has done the opposite. Since playing it close to the sweatervest against USC, they’ve scored 30 or more points in every game since. I think Wisconsin will provide some resistance, but provided Ohio State is finally doing what it actually wants to on offense, I think they have the inside track to the Big Ten title.
  • Baylor @ Oklahoma (Gameplan/ABC): This is an okay Baylor team. Of course, you could argue Oklahoma has proven absolutely nothing, but they will have Sam Bradford back and they should beat Baylor anyway.
  • Connecticut @ Pittsburgh (Gameplan/ESPN/ABC): Pitt thrashed Louisville, but I don’t really take that as any sort of indicator of “quality”. I’m going to admit I’m completely guessing here and just with UConn because I think that’d be pretty funny.
  • Navy @ Rice (CBSCS): I bet 10-3 seems really far away now for the Owls. Navy should cruise here. No pun intended.

4:00: Duke @ North Carolina State (ESPNU): It’s funny how, for all the wackiness of the ACC, the one terrible constant through all the years is Duke. For what it’s worth, both these teams have the exact same number of DI-A wins (one). That said, well, until they prove otherwise there’s not really any reason to favor Duke.

7:00: Stanford @ Oregon State (FSN): For the second week in a row, I’ll pick Stanford. I’m forced to wonder if that has ever happened before. I should go back and look. Though not right now.

7:15: Colorado @ Texas (ESPN): Unless something has happened since losing to The Bill Steward Experience, Colorado is still a terrible football team. Texas should handle them easily.

7:30:

  • Southern Mississippi @ Louisville (ESPNU): Well, I’ll say one thing: if Louisville loses this game, the odds of them having the same head coach against UConn next week have to be extremely slim. In fact, they’re currently 0-3 against I-A teams. USM, meanwhile, has experienced something of a let down since the win over Virginia (which, if trends hold, should get more valuable each of the next three weeks!) by losing to Kansas (understandable) and UAB (much less so). UL should still beat their old C-USA foe, but the emphasis on that is should.
  • Texas Christian @ Air Force (CBSCS): TCU is the most legitimate of the remaining mid-major unbeaten teams, and they have to be on their guard against a pretty decent Air Force squad. They should win, though.

8:00:

  • Florida @ Louisiana State (CBS): Hooo boy. Well, here’s what we know. 1) We don’t know if Tim Tebow, the best player in college football, will play. 2) We know that in a haze of bourbon and butter, it will be very intense tonight in Baton Rouge. 3) Les Miles is crazy; Urban Meyer, not so much. And that, honestly, is what makes me think Florida will win regardless of Tebow’s presence. It’s not like the backup QB for Florida is some dude they got off the street two weeks ago. Will it change UF’s gameplan? Of course. But here’s what I know about LSU from their last two games. 1) They couldn’t stop Miss State for most of the game, except on a goal line stand at the end of the game that was probably Miss State’s fault as much as anything else. 2) They couldn’t score against UGA’s leaky defense for the first, oh, 57 minutes of the game last weekend. I think Florida, even without Tebow, has the talent to keep up with LSU and has a definite edge in coaching, and I think the Gators can, and should, win. Regardless, though, I think it’ll be close.
  • Michigan @ Iowa (ABC): Michigan learned last week the ups-and-downs of having a freshman QB – saving your bacon one minute, throwing the game losing interception into the end zone the next. (Believe me, as a survive of the Reggie Ball Era, I know all about the perils of freshman QBs. The problem is when they don’t stop being freshman QBs.) Nonetheless, Iowa has failed to convince me of much of anything, and there’s the pesky fact they very nearly lost to Arkansas State last weekend. I actually like Michigan here.
  • Georgia Tech @ Florida State (ESPN2): Hey, did you know Florida state is actually playing a game this weekend? Anyway, the drama around Bobby Bowden this week can amount to one of two things: 1) FSU is truly internally divided, with coaches and players fighting among themselves 2) the players have united behind Bowden and will come out motivated and ready to play. But here are some facts: Tech is looking bad on defense, and while we ended the overall losing streak to FSU last year, we’re still 0-6 in Tallahassee. Our last visit there was my freshman year back in 2003, where coming off the huge Auburn win we led 13-0 going into the 4th quarter only to lose, 14-13. We have to get this monkey off our back.
    The offense looked pretty darn good last week. We took advantage of Miss State’s 5 (!) turnovers and Nesbitt’s good passing effort (11-14 for 266 yards), easily a career best. Dwyer still lacks a 100 yard game, but with the way the passing game was working last week we almost didn’t need to – and in fact, we had more total yards passing (266) than rushing (213). Which led Mickey Andrews to his award-worthy quote: “You can’t cover everybody and play the run like you need to and double cover (Demaryius Thomas). You can, but they’ll penalize you. We’ve got it figured out if they’d just let us play with that extra guy. And they ought to, we need it right now.”
    On the opposite side of the ball, the defense was just not very good last week outside of forcing 5 turnovers. If nothing changes and the FSU that put 54 on BYU shows up, this could be a long day for us.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 5

Based on my performance over the past couple of weeks, keep in mind the latter clause in the following disclaimer:

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Wisconsin @ Minnesota (ESPN): I really have no opinion on this game. None. I guess Wisconsin will probably win? I don’t know. I would say this is the least compelling game of the morning, but it’s got nothing on…
  • Arkansas State @ Iowa (ESPN2): this game. Keep in mind, ESPN picked this game before Iowa beat Penn State last weekend. How this got picked over Michigan-Michigan State (rivals!) or Ohio State-Indiana (3-1 vs. 3-1!) defies any logic I could possibly give. I shouldn’t have to say this, but, uh, Iowa should win.
  • Clemson @ Maryland (ESPNU): I’d even rather watch this than Arkansas State-Iowa. Now, the most likely outcome is that I’ll be asleep on my couch for most of these games anyway, but still. Anyway, it’s not like Maryland has been great the past few years, yet somehow it wins games like these for no apparent reason. Clemson should still win handily, though.
  • East Carolina @ Marshall (CBSCS): Marshall may be 3-1, but don’t let that fool you. They’re still not very good. To be fair, ECU hasn’t exactly impressed so far but played 2 BCS conference teams. I still like ECU here.
  • Michigan @ Michigan State (BTN): Michigan State’s unlucky streak continues, with their 8 point loss to Wisconsin actually being the largest margin of defeat they’ve suffered so far this year. That said, with 3 losses this has to feel like a season on the brink as their biggest (and heretofore, undefeated) rival that’s had all the bounces go their way so far rolls in. That said, at what point does it stop being luck and starts being an indicator that these teams are going in completely different directions this season? We’ll find for sure in East Lansing, but my hunch is that presents trends will continue with a Michigan victory.
  • Alabama @ Kentucky (SEC): As unfortunate as Tebow’s injury is, we also learned Kentucky isn’t quite ready to run with the big boys of the SEC yet. Alabama should take care of business.
  • Virginia @ North Carolina (Raycom): While UNC got dominated statistically by Tech last weekend, Virginia should present no such challenge. We’re talking about a team that gave up 200+ yards rushing to Southern Mississippi, here. UNC should be fine.

3:30:

  • Washington @ Notre Dame (NBC): Well, so much for that maybe being a really good team, eh U-dub? Losing by 20 to Stanford can do that. ND should win this one. Should.
  • California-Los Angeles @ Stanford (ABC/Gameplan): I don’t know if anyone noticed, but Stanford could go to 3-0 in the Pac-10 with a win here. Okay, they probably did, and then remembered that their victories are over Washington and the worst team in the conference, Washington State. Meanwhile, UCLA put all their OOC games first and won them all, with Tennessee the best among those. UCLA should, and probably will, win this game, but Stanford can keep their offense going as they have (they dominated Washington) they have a very good chance of making this a special season for the Cardinal.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Illinois (ESPN/ABC): As bad as Penn State’s loss last week was for their (and their conference’s) national title chances, Illinois should provide a welcome, refreshing respite. In other words, it’s not looking good in Urbana-Champaign for the Zooker.
  • Florida State @ Boston College (Gameplan/ESPN/ABC): I’m not sure where exactly Boston College found 400 yards of offense, but they used it to its full effect in the upset over Wake. Meanwhile, I (and no one else, I think) have no idea what the hell is going with FSU. They lost well to a good Miami team (despite last week’s result in Blacksburg), almost got upset by Jacksonville State, hung 54 on BYU (at Provo, nonetheless) and then lost badly to Groethe-less USF. Logically, BC just doesn’t have the offensive weapons to hang with FSU’s defense, but I just… I don’t know. I will pick FSU, but ugh.
  • New Mexico @ Texas Tech (FSN): Texas Tech gets a nice, tasty cupcake to get over the sting of losing to Houston. Considering Tulsa hung 44 on NMU, I’d say TTU should score at least 55.
  • North Carolina State @ Wake Forest (ESPNU): Well, NCSU beat Pitt last week basically because Pitt had no idea how to run a read-zone offense, which I guess isn’t terribly surprising but still. If Wake can not turn the ball over 3 times, especially not 8 yards from the goalline in overtime, this should win.
  • Air Force @ Navy (CBSCS): Leg 1 of the Commander-in-Chief’s trophy begins! AF comes in with a 3-1 record, with a DI-AA win and over the dregs of the Mountain West. Navy is 2-2 and seems to have lost focus after the close loss to Ohio State: they’ve beaten the bad teams but lost a very winnable game to Pitt. Anyway, if you like option football, WATCH THIS GAME. Also, I’ll take Navy.

7:00:

  • Oregon State @ Arizona State (Versus): ASU just never quite put it together against Georgia to produce a winning drive and honestly didn’t look that great. I haven’t seen Oregon State since the UNLV game, and since then they’re 0-2. I think OSU is slightly better offensively, though, but by Pac-10 standards this may be a close, low-scoring game. I like the Beavers anyway.
  • Mississippi @ Vanderbilt (ESPNU): Ole Miss confirmed last week what I think most of us already knew: they’re not a top-10 team. Before their hot finish last year, they even lost to Vandy! This Vandy outfit, though, isn’t nearly as lucky, and it took a very bad Rice squad to get them their first DI-A win. I’ll be rooting for the ‘Dores, but Ole Miss should win this one.
  • South Carolina State @ South Carolina (ESPN Classic): I considered not listing this one, but it technically a game with a DI-A team on TV. I think it’s fairly obvious who I’ll pick.
  • Ohio State @ Indiana (BTN): Ohio State beat up on a extremely hapless Illinois squad last weekend. This Indiana team is a little less, er, hapless, and should at least providing some resistance. I didn’t say the Hoosiers would win, though.

7:30:

  • Texas Agricultural and Mechanical vs. Arkansas (@Arlington, TX; ESPN2): Ah, more games in Jerry Jone’s new Intergalactic Space Palace. This old SWC series gets back off the ground in what should be a high-scoring contest. TAMU may be 3-0 but that is against an extremely soft schedule, where as Arkansas actually played a team with a defense last weekend. They probably won’t on Saturday, though, and should take the first game in this renewed series.
  • Tulsa @ Rice (CBSCS): I don’t know if anyone noticed, but Rice is not a very good football team this year. Tulsa should win easily.
  • Georgia Tech @ Mississippi State (SEC/CSS): GT makes its return trip to Miss State, a year after crushing them in Atlanta. (Fun fact: despite being in the SEC with both Ole Miss and Miss State for 32 years (and in two other conference before that, dating back to the 1890’s), GT has never played in the state of Mississippi. In fact, GT and Miss State never met in SEC play, and GT met Ole Miss twice during that time span, though the second time was in the Sugar Bowl.) This year’s outfit, though, has a new coach and is actually somewhat competent this year. Perhaps most optimistically for GT, they allowed 390 yards on the ground to Auburn, but you can flip that around and say they only allowed 33 and 30 to Vandy and LSU, respectively.
    In the near upset over LSU last week, Miss State dominated statistically but couldn’t punch in the winning score despite 4 attempts within LSU 2 yard line, including what I thought was a very strange call (the 3rd down pass attempt that was miraculously broken up). Overall, Miss State runs a spread-option offense with essentially three players, one at each major skill position. Defensively, Miss State has had success in the last two games stopping the run, though it could be argued both of those teams are also just not very good at running the ball.
    Defensively, I believe GT will stay with the 4-3 that had success last week against UNC and look to stop Miss State’s run game. Offensively, Tech still has issues on the interior of the offensive line. While we dominated UNC last weekend, the game wasn’t put away until well into the 4th quarter as Tech left a bunch of points on the field with a few stalled drives in Carolina territory and two missed field goals. Tech may go with a new kicker this week, as we also had several kick-offs out-of-bounds that UNC fortunately wasn’t really able to capitalize on.
    Overall, I expect this to be a close, but high scoring game. Hopefully the good guys win.
    Also, to whoever at Comcast SportsNet Bay Area/California made the decision to pick up the SEC TV package: THANK YOU!

7:45: Auburn @ Tennessee (ESPN): The line on this game is 2.5-3, which is basically crediting Tennessee for home field advantage. I’m honestly not sure what to think about it either, but I can’t help the feeling that Auburn’s rejuvenated offense will carry the day while Crompton continues turning the ball over at inopportune times.

8:00:

  • Southern California @ California (ABC/Gameplan): The 8:00 time slot is a perfect reflection of when these matchups were set two weeks ago. USC-Cal looked to be a major contest with the fate of the Pac-10 on the line, as well as national title implications. For now, it’s strictly in the former category. To me, this feels like the game every year where USC starts to rehab from its yearly terrible loss, so I’m taking the Trojans. That said, this game can still be valuable for Cal – but make no mistake, the loser of this game will probably be looking to the Holiday Bowl (at best) instead of the Fiesta.
  • Oklahoma @ University of Miami (Gameplan/ABC): This is still an important inter-sectional matchup, but with Miami laying an egg in Blacksburg last weekend it’s declined a bit. OU hasn’t had any trouble scoring without Sam Bradford (whom they still lack for today’s game), but I feel safe in saying that Miami is probably still a little better than Idaho State and Tulsa. I think Miami will rebound a bit from last weekend, but probably not enough to topple the Sooners.

10:30: Colorado State @ Idaho (ESPNU): On Thursday, I had a message on my DVR that Comcast had just added ESPNU HD, which is about the only reason I can think of to watch this. Well, there is another: it’s being played at the Kibbie Dome! Fun facts: it was originally an outdoor stadium that was enclosed; it was the second dome built for sports in Idaho, after Idaho State’s own Holt Arena; seating 16,000, it is the smallest stadium in Division I-A (which is why, on occasion, Idaho plays home games in nearby Pullman, home of Washington State); when used for basketball, it is known as the Cowan Spectrum. This is all at least tuning in for a few minutes for. As for the actual game? Well, at 3-1 Idaho already has as many wins as it did in the past two season combined. CSU is also 3-1, but both resumes are overall equally unspectacular. (Giving CSU credit for beating Colorado would probably be a little much at this point.) A quick glance at the stats show you probably shouldn’t expect a whole lot of defense. That said, I’ll still take Colorado State.

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This Weekend in College Football: Week 4

This is going up late and it’ll be pretty short. Apologies, I’ve just been swamped at work lately.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Michigan State @ Wisconsin (ESPN): While these teams have diametrically opposed offenses (Wisconsin is a traditional Big Ten “3 yards and a cloud of dust” kind of team, Mich. State likes to throw it around), neither style has really gotten then anywhere. The Badgers are 3-0, yet it doesn’t really feel that way: their combined margin of victory against their DI-A opponents so far is 11 points, and those opponents were Northern Illinois and Fresno State (in OT, even). Michigan State is basically that, but the other way, with two losses by a combined 5 points, to Central Michigan and Notre Dame. More importantly for both, perhaps, is that they’re 0-0 in the Big Ten. I honestly think either team could win this game, but so for the sake of picking someone I’ll take Wisconsin.
  • Indiana @ Michigan (ESPN2): Through processes that I don’t fully understand, Indiana is 3-0. Oh wait, they’ve beaten Eastern Kentucky, Western Michigan, and Akron. Well, that certainly helps. Michigan is also 3-0, and features a win over ND and a drubbing of their directional patsies, unlike the Hoosiers. I think I’ll take Michigan.
  • Southern Mississippi @ Kansas (FSN): USM got themselves a win over a BCS team last weekend by taking Virginia, though UVA is so bad this year I’m not even sure that’s an upset. (In case you’re wondering, the Don’t Fire Al Groh guys are back.) All that said, Kansas should handle USM pretty easily.
  • South Florida @ Florida State (ESPNU): USF had a glimmer of hope in this game, I think, but then 5th year senior QB Matt Grothe went down for the count, and so did USF’s chances of beating FSU.
  • Minnesota @ Northwestern (BTN): NU QB Mike Kafka surely felt the pains of existence after Northwestern’s defense, or lack thereof, couldn’t stop Syracuse from kicking the go ahead field goal last weekend. While Northwestern has the Big Ten’s first or second best passing attack (depending on what stat you use), Minnesota hasn’t excelled at much of anything and got pounded by weekend by Cal. Since the transitive property doesn’t apply to college football, I feel safe predicting a Northwestern win here.
  • Louisiana State @ Mississippi State (SEC/Gameplan): This is already taking too long. LSU. Next!
  • North Carolina @ Georgia Tech (Raycom/Gameplan): I intended to write a separate article for this game, but unfortunately I never had a chance to get around to it. First, let me dispel the notion that last year’s UNC team had some sort of magical option-stopping effect, as it’s not true. While Tech only had 7 points, they still ran for 326 yards and 423 yards overall and had 20 first downs. What killed them? 3 turnovers, including two fumbles that led directly to touchdowns. Fast forward to this year, and turnovers have been the least of our worries so far. More worryingly, the Jackets are failing to block anyone consistently, whether it be in the trenches or on the edge. The only thing running worse than the offense right now is the defense. While you should be buying into the Miami hype, Tech hasn’t shown the ability to pressure any quarterback this year.
    While UNC’s defensive line is probably not as good as Clemson’s or Miami’s, their front 7 as a unit are probably just as good or better. This makes Tech rediscovering how to block all the more important this week. On the flip side, UNC’s offense has been inconsistent. It looked fine against ECU but horrible in the 12-10 debacle at Connecticut. They won’t pass a whole bunch, relying instead on the their very good running backs and a steady pocket presence from upperclassman Tyler Yates.
    Tech has made a variety of changes this past week to try to mitigate issues. On the offensive side of the ball, there is at least one new offensive line starter, and I would expect the A-back rotation to change a bit. On defense, Tech will abandon the 4-2-5 and switch to the 4-3, hoping the extra linebacker can help put some more pressure on the QB. Even though we got torched by Miami, I really don’t think our secondary is that bad – not taking anything away from Jacory Harris, but when you have absolutely no pressure you can always find the open man. Hopefully we can at least touch the QB this week.
    In terms of the ACC race, Tech is already down and will, for all intents and purposes, be out if they lose this game, though it will be really darn tough anyway if Miami wins in Blacksburg. (Have I mentioned the fact that our division race will practically be decided before the end of September? What the hell, ACC?)
    So, with that, I will close. Go Jackets!

3:30:

  • Arkansas @ Alabama (CBS): Arkansas had an early off week, meaning this is only their third game. That said, I’m not sure I can come up with a good reason they’ll beat Alabama.
  • California @ Oregon (ABC/Gameplan): Speaking of huge, early conference games, how about this Pac-10 game? I know most will think they’ve heard this before, but USC has some real issues this year. Meanwhile, Cal has its first chance in a long time to not lay an egg in a big game and establish themselves as the challenger in this conference this year. I still don’t really have a read on this year’s Oregon team, but I do have a read that Jahvid best is really good at running with a football. If Cal can hold on, and I think they will, go ahead and mark October 31st on your calendar.
  • Illinois @ Ohio State (ESPN/ABC): Stupid early off weeks. Here’s what I know about Illinois: they got slaughtered by Mizzou in week one and beat DI-AA Illinois State two weeks ago. Thanks guys. I’ll take OSU anyway because I’m lazy and it’s like 3AM here.
  • University of Miami @ Virginia Tech (Gameplan/ESPN/ABC): Is “DA U” back? Well, they won last year’s ugly contest 16-14 before laying an egg against us the next week, but before that had lost 4 of 5. Suffice it to say, this is the best defense Miami will have faced to date, and it will be interesting to see how Jacory Harris handles the blitzes Bud Foster will throw at him. This is my game of the day, as we need a VPI win to have any realistic chance of still winning our division, but a Miami win produces a legit top-10 team from the ACC going into next week’s contest with Oklahoma. And just based on what I’ve seen so far this year, I think Miami can break through and put enough points on the board to get past Virginia Tech’s scrappy, keep-it-close style of football.
  • Texas-El Paso @ Texas (FSN): I’d ordinarily have something witty about concession stand spreads here, but I’ll take Texas.
  • Pittsburgh @ North Carolina State (ESPNU): Let’s do the “what do I know?” game again. NCSU is 2-1. Both the wins are over DI-AA teams. The loss was a 7-3 debacle against South Carolina. Pitt is 3-0 against Youngstown State, Buffalo, and Navy. I’d say that’s about a push. I’ll go ahead and take NCSU here, but if they win this game they’ll lose to Duke in two weeks or something like that.
  • Western Kentucky @ Navy (CBSCS): Navy gets back on track against the Hilltoppers. Did you know I get this channel in HD, though? It’s pretty awesome.

6:00: Florida @ Kentucky (ESPN2): Blah blah swine flu blah blah Kentucky not that bad blah blah Florida still has Tim Tebow, last I checked.

7:00:

  • Arizona State @ Georgia (ESPNU): This is Arizona State’s first game ever at a SEC stadium, though not the first time UGA’s ever hosted a Pac-10 team. That said, ASU may feel right at home with the lack of defense. Take the over, and, begrudgingly, UGA.
  • Ball State @ Auburn (SEC/Gameplan): Hey, Ball State, remember when you undefeated last year going in to the MAC title game and getting some national attention? And then you laid an egg against Buffalo and have lost 5 straight now. Yeah… now that Auburn has seemingly found an offense (don’t ask me how) they should take this pretty easily.

7:30:

  • Arizona @ Oregon State (Versus): Arizona keeps trying to be respectable, and then they do things like “losing to Iowa”. Meanwhile, Oregon State lost to a quietly good Cincy team last weekend, but should recover sufficiently to beat Arizona.
  • Louisville @ Utah (CBSCS): So, Utah had their longest unbeaten streak snapped quite rudely last weekend by Oregon. I think this game will be interesting, but I think Utah can still regain some respect and win this one.

8:00:

  • Iowa @ Pennsylvania State (ABC): I just refuse to believe Iowa is anything other than mediocre, despite the 3-0 record. Of course, Penn State’s schedule is arguably just as weak but they at least took care of their patsies how they should. Not sure why this is the primetime game. Penn State, easy.
  • Notre Dame @ Purdue (ESPN): So Notre Dame isn’t as good as I though, oh well. I do know Purdue is as bad as I think, though, and probably won’t win this game.

9:15: Texas Tech @ Houston (ESPN2): Sound the sirens, because these are two of the best Air Raid offenses in the country going at it right here. (To read more about their offenses, see here. You’ll feel smarter just by doing so.) Of course, Texas Tech didn’t exactly put up the show we all expected last weekend, while Houston has just been kind of doing it’s thing so far. I expect both teams to score at least 40 points here and this game probably won’t end until 1 AM Eastern. That said, I think TTU recovers from last week and eeks out a win here.

10:15: Washington State @ Southern California (FSN): It’s Wazzou. It’s a vulnerable USC team! But they’re not that vulnerable. USC here.

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This Weekend in College Football: Week 3

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • California @ Minnesota (ESPN): In Cal’s last early kickoff adventure, they lost to a mediocre/bad Maryland team. This game kicks off at 10 AM Pacific, though, so maybe the extra hour will benefits them? They should win anyway.
  • East Carolina @ North Carolina (ESPN2): If UNC’s offense fails to show again, this will be a long day for the Tarheels. ECU is generally considered decent, but I’m not seeing it (beat App. State by 5, lost to a rebuilding WVU by 15), so I have to take UNC here.
  • Duke @ Kansas (Versus): Let’s see, Duke has lost to Richmond and should’ve lost to Army (don’t let the score fool you). Kansas, meanwhile, has outscored their equally bad opponents so far 83-10. I think the Duke basketball team might stand a better chance here.
  • Louisville @ Kentucky (ESPNU): Both of these teams had early bye weeks (the season started “late” this year, so teams only have 1 bye week) and are coming off blowouts of their respective opening day patsies. While L’ville probably won’t lose 27-2 this time around, I still like UK to win.
  • Ball State @ Army (CBSCS): Army isn’t exactly good or anything, but Ball State is super bad. I think the Knights of the Hudson once again, though hopefully that doesn’t doom them again this week.
  • Eastern Michigan @ Michigan (BTN): Your guide to directional Michigans: Western: bad, Central: good, Eastern: super bad. Michigan rolls.
  • North Texas @ Alabama (SEC): SEC TV just seems sad if it’s relegated to games like this. See, when it was the “JP Sports SEC ‘Game of the Week’ brought to you by Golden Flake and Yella Wood” no one cared, but when you have your own network it just seems, I dunno, wrong? Anyway…
  • Boston College @ Clemson (Raycom): This is BC’s first real test, and considering how terrible I think everyone expected them to be this year (myself included) they may make it close, but Clemson should ultimately prevail.

3:30:

  • Tennessee @ Florida (CBS): I think the only good thing I got out of Thursday’s game was one of the commentators joking that Florida may be, perhaps, “building a woodshed” up in Gainesville. You know, to take Tennessee behind. What’s the line on this, like 28 or something absurd like that? Is that the worst line in SEC history not involving teams named Vanderbilt, Kentucky, or Mississippi State? I can’t speak for most folks, but I’m tuning into this one out of a sort of morbid curiosity to see if Florida can cover.
  • Michigan State @ Notre Dame (NBC): Notre Dame isn’t as good as everyone thought (duh) but they’re not the kind of outfit that would lose to Central Michigan at home, either. Not that the transitive property applies to college football, but seriously ND should prevail.
  • Southern California @ Washington (ABC/Gameplan): U-Dub definitely gave LSU the what-for two weeks ago, but I think I could start for USC and still beat them, especially if all I had to do was hand it to Joe McKnight and Stafon Johnson 40 times. Heck, I bet even Mitch Mustain could handle that! Anyway….
  • Nebraska @ Virginia Tech (Gameplan/ESPN2/ABC): This is the kind of game that makes predicting the early season so tough. Well, okay, that’s most games, but still. What we know about VPI: they lost kind of badly to Alabama. What we know about Nebraska: they’ve blown out a couple of bad teams. What we know from last year: VPI won pretty convincingly in Omaha. Automatic conclusion: since the game is in Blacksburg, VPI should win convincingly. And honestly, I can’t think of anything to trump this conclusion.
  • Arizona @ Iowa (ESPN2/ABC): I don’t care about this game and I can’t think of anything to say. Iowa, I guess? I dunno.
  • Utah @ Oregon (ESPN): Now this game is hells of intriguing, except for the fact Oregon has pretty much decided they no longer want to be discussion for who the second best team in the Pac-10 is. They lost to Boise – no shame in that. But nearly losing to a very not good Purdue team at home? That raises some eyebrows. Eyebrows that say they’re probably not going to beat Utah.
  • Tulsa @ Oklahoma (FSN): I really want Tulsa to make this interesting. You know, toss it around, go crazy with 5 WR sets and try to put up a bunch of points. Oh, wait, they already do those things? Hrm. Well, OU should win, but I like Tulsa to keep up the pressure, at least.
  • Indiana @ Akron (ESPNU): Indiana spices things up by playing a school that doesn’t have a cardinal direction in its name. Worryingly for IU, though, they’ve won those two games by a grand total of 11 points. I mean, they should still beat Akron, but if you enjoying watching Big Ten teams potentially losing to MAC teams, this is probably the game for you!
  • Virginia @ Southern Mississippi (CBSCS): Things Southern Miss has done twice this season that Virginia hasn’t: win football games. I fully expect this trend to continue.

6:45: Cincinnati @ Oregon State (FSN): Cincy has very quietly gotten off a rocking start, first by destroying Rutgers in their opener and then laying the expected beatdown on a directional DI-AA opponent. Oregon State probably won’t lose by 67 points, but they should lose all the same.

7:00:

  • Florida State @ Brigham Young (Versus): Hey, FSU, remember that time you played Jacksonville State and then only won 19-9 and had a very real chance of losing? Oh, wait, that was last week. I mean, yeah, BYU will take all the BCS conference scalps it can get, but if they win I don’t think it’ll even technically be an upset. I’m going with BYU as well.
  • Louisiana-Lafayette @ Louisiana State (ESPNU): UL-Lafayette, don’t get too hyped up off your victory over K-State! You’ll need a level head and approximately 50 turnovers in your favor to beat LSU, most likely.
  • Mississippi State @ Vanderbilt (SEC): See, at least this is between two mediocre/bad SEC teams! This is what made JP great! Well, except that this is way too late in the day, but whatever! Also, I like Vandy.

7:30: Air Force @ New Mexico (CBSCS): New Mexico: still bad! Air Force should take this pretty easily, provided they’re not too depressed about losing to Minnesota.

7:45:

  • Georgia @ Arkansas (ESPN): So, uh, Georgia’s defense isn’t all that good, I guess? Conventional wisdom says they’re going to lose to Arkansas, but the problem is I’m not entirely sure why they should. But then there’s the part of me that, you know, hates Georgia and pretty much wants them to lose 78-0. So I’ll go with that.
  • West Virginia @ Auburn (ESPN2): If I told you, when this game was scheduled, that one of these teams would have a dynamic, high scoring offense, who would’ve said it was Auburn? Yet here we are, provided the first two games are any indication. (Which I hope they are, since that’s the basis for pretty much all of my predictions.) Is Auburn for real? I hope so, because otherwise I’ll looking bad for picking them.

8:00: Texas Tech @ Texas (ABC): While Texas Tech may not ever rebuild now that Leach has The System going, it’s hard to say exactly why they should win in Austin either. All the pressure is on Texas, of course – I don’t think they can afford to lose any games this year. I still like them to win, though.

10:15: Kansas State @ California-Los Angeles (FSN): UCLA isn’t exactly good or anything, but Kansas State is exactly bad. I think that sentence makes sense. What also makes sense: taking the Bruins.

11:00: Hawaii @ Nevada-Las Vegas (CBSCS): Unlike UNLV, Hawaii actually succeeded in beating their Pac-10 team last weekend. That said, this is Hawaii’s middle game in a three-game road trip on the mainland, which is literally a trip – the team doesn’t even fly back to Hawaii between these games. Which is probably better for them, actually, but I would still think this takes its toll. But still, Hawaii ran out to a 35-6 lead by the half against Wazzou and never looked back on the way to 489 yards passing. Yeesh. I have to take the Warriors here.

That’s all for this week!

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