Category Archives: college football

This Weekend in College Football: Week 11

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Saturday
Noon:

  • Tennessee @ Mississippi (CBS): It’s a noon CBS game, so I guess this is their two-game package of the year. These are two teams going in opposite directions right now, so as weird as it feels I have to pick the Vols.
  • Michigan State @ Purdue (ESPN): Since their upset of Ohio State and subsequent drubbing by Wisconsin Purdue is 2-0, and I have to say, if you’d told me they’d be tied with Michigan State in Big Ten play, well, I’d be pretty surprised. In fact, in terms of their actual Big Ten resumes, I’d say they’re pretty even. Still going with Sparty, though.
  • Georgia Tech @ Duke (ESPN2): I think this is the most stressed out I’ve ever been for a Duke game. With a win, Tech clinches the ACC Coastal title. With a loss, well, I have no idea what happens because there would be a 4-way tie for first (but I think Miami wins the tiebreaker).
    Now, the reason for the stress is this. Duke can throw the ball. Tech cannot defend passing offenses worth a damn. Tech has to do whatever Carolina did last week in limiting Duke to 11 first downs on 125 yards passing. Carolina was able to move the ball, though had trouble getting touchdowns, so if Tech cannot defend the pass we could very easily get into a shootout. Last week the pass defense was bad, and even downright horrible throughout the first half – being done in by a bad combination of playing very far off the WRs and then defending their routes incorrectly. UNC sacked Thad Lewis 4 times and picked him off twice – Tech will need to generate pressure while rushing four. One thing in most defense’s advantage when facing Duke is their extreme difficulty in running the ball, which we need to take advantage of by perhaps switching to a 2 LB set to help defend the pass.
    As for Tech on offense, it looked, well, bad at times in the first half but recovered in the second. That said, we must press our athletic advantage over Duke and not put the ball on the ground.
    I honestly don’t know what to expect. Most observers, of course, expect an easy Tech win. However, there is nothing easy about GT football. I still recall our last divisional title, 3 years ago, when we came out flat against a bad Carolina team. We won 7-0, but as I saw later, that was the downfall of that 2006 team. We avoided a huge let down last week, and I hope we realize that avoid some of the mistakes that almost cost us.
  • Texas @ Baylor (FSN): Baylor scored the surprise win at Missouri last week, but Texas should be able to take care of business.
  • Florida State @ Wake Forest (ESPNU): So much for FSU getting to a bowl – I agree with the conventional wisdom that FSU without Christian Ponder (a.k.a., the FSU offense) is pretty much toast.
  • Houston @ Central Florida (CBSCS): Houston should win, but expect lots o’ points. Might be worth your while – Houst @ Tulsa last weekend was certainly worth mine!
  • Northwestern @ Illinois (ESPN Classic): I don’t care what happened the last two weeks, Illinois still sucks.
  • Michigan @ Wisconsin (BTN): With the loss to Purdue, Michigan is in very bad shape at 5-5. I’m not projecting them to win either of their two remaining games.
  • Kentucky @ Vanderbilt (SEC/Gameplan): Neither of these football teams is what you might call “good” but Kentucky does display a certain competence Vandy lacks. Should probably be close and low-scoring, though.
  • Clemson @ North Carolina State (Raycom/Gameplan): As long as Clemson shows up for this one, they should have a field day.

12:30: Missouri @ Kansas State (Versus): Yeah… so…. Mizzou. You lost to Baylor last weekend. Yeah. You just violated my trust! Though I don’t think that Kansas State is really that much, if at all, better, I can’t really pick you at this point. I’m sorry.

3:30:

  • Florida @ South Carolina (CBS): And now, let’s begin a segment I call “ridiculous lines of the day”. I think Vegas phoned it in for this weekend. I mean, 17.5 point favorites? I mean, yeah, UF will win, but probably by more like 7-10. Sheesh.
  • Iowa @ Ohio State (ABC/ESPN): Without QB Ricky Stanzi, Iowa could well lose this game and against Minnesota. And I won’t mind at all. Freaking Iowa. Ugh.
  • Nebraska @ Kansas (Gameplan/ESPN/ABC): Nebraska, please win this game. I would like the Big 12 title game to be at least competitive. Hopefully Kansas’s offense remains hidden for one more game.
  • University of Miami @ North Carolina (ESPN/Gameplan/ABC): While Miami probably won’t put 52 on UNC, the home team most certainly will not. Da U should win easily.
  • Stanford @ Southern California (FSN): Speaking of lost offenses, anyone seen USC’s lately? Or their defense, for that matter? While they did hold ASU to 9 points ASU had offensive issues of their own. I think USC will win, but I fully expect Stanford to make it interesting.
  • Idaho @ Boise State (ESPNU): THIRTY ONE AND A HALF POINTS? REALLY VEGAS? Boise only put up 45 against a very moribund bunch at Louisiana Tech and you’re saying that they’ll win by 5 scores against an in-state rival in the midst of their best year ever? This is crazy. Oh, and yeah, Boise still wins, but I mean, really?
  • Delaware @ Navy (CBSCS): First off, you owe it to yourself to read this. Secondly, Delaware is a pretty competent DI-AA team and has given Navy fits in the past, but the Middies should pull it out. (You should also read the other posts on that blog, because it’s by far the best breakdown our (and Navy’s) offense that I’ve ever seen.)

7:00:

  • Alabama @ Mississippi State (ESPN): I wouldn’t call Miss State “bad”, but I wouldn’t say they’re good either. Alabama’s defense should be able to stuff their only offensive weapon (RB Anthony Dixon) while Mark Ingram improves his Heisman stats.
  • Auburn @ Georgia (ESPN2): Okay, it probably won’t happen (since they still play Kentucky) but I am giddy that there is even the possibility that Georgia could be 5-6 heading into our game. Awww yeah, savor the flavor – of schadenfreude! In addition to the heaping amount of bias I already have against Georgia, I also grew up an Auburn fan and generally prefer them to not suck, especially against UGA. And all that said, I’m also picking Auburn straight up. Hopefully the 38 points against Tennessee Tech wasn’t a fluke.
  • Texas Agricultural and Mechanical @ Oklahoma (FSN): TAMU, you rolled off two straight wins and then you lost to… Colorado? How? Why? I mean, you should still beat Baylor to get bowl eligible but still. At any rate, they should also still lose to Oklahoma.
  • Arizona @ California (Versus): I was having my customary celebratory burger last weekend after our game against Wake Forest. I looked up at the monitors and it happened right then and there in real time. Jahvid Best, one of the best and most exciting players in college football, was floating in the air, got hit, and lay on the ground motionless. Scary. I drove home, had a half-dozen messages from my friends and turned on the TV. He was still on the ground. He was released from the hospital earlier this week, but to give you an idea of the magnitude it’s never good when some has “just” a concussion. (The alternative being the initially feared spinal cord injury.)
    As for the game, Arizona’s a pretty decent team this year. (Apparently nowawadays all Mike Stoops does is win football games.) I expect them to win.
  • Louisiana Tech @ Louisiana State (ESPNU): LSU. Next!

7:30:

  • Utah @ Texas Christian (CBSCS): While Utah has only played one good team (Oregon) and lost, I don’t really understand how TCU is 20 point favorite. I’ll take TCU to win, yeah, but I mean, 20? Really?
  • Troy @ Arkansas (SEC/Gameplan): Ar-kansas. Next!

8:00:

  • Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh (ABC/Gameplan): Taking Pitt and the Wannstache to win anything is painful for me, but I must do so here. I just don’t like ND is that good.
  • Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State (Gameplan/ABC): A win here allows TTU to salvage a measure of respect from a season marked by losses to Houston and Texas A&M. Will they? Probably not, but forecasts call for a storm of points with a chain of hail (marys).

10:15: Arizona State @ Oregon (ESPN): If that guy ASU trotted out there in the 4th quarter of the USC game as their QB is playing in this game, Oregon wins easily. Oregon’s drop below USC in the polls last week defies all logic, especially since, last I checked, the Ducks are still on track to win the conference. Madness.

Sunday
8:15: East Carolina @ Tulsa (ESPN): It’s late, I’m tired, and our game is in less than 6 hours. ECU.

This Week in College Football: Week 11

Introducing “This Week in College Football”. With the proliferation of conferences desperate for ESPN’s money and exposure, we now have college ball on practically every day of the week. So each week, I’ll write up a short post about this week’s weekday games in the same vein as my weekend column.
As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Tuesday
7:00: Ohio @ Buffalo (ESPN2): Lots of games this week, so let’s kick it off with some MAC-tion. Buffalo no doubt wishes it were last year again, but at 3-6 overall and 1-4 in the MAC, well, it’s not looking good against MAC East front-runner Ohio, who look like they have the best chance to knock off Temple’s lead.

Wednesday
8:00: Toledo @ Central Michigan (ESPN2): Toledo has the 96th ranked pass defense in the country, so I would expect a big day from everyone’s favorite MAC QB, Dan LeFevour.

Thursday
6:00: Ball State @ Northern Illinois (ESPNU): Ball State is terrible, NIU less so.

7:30: South Florida @ Rutgers (ESPN): USF is coming off that huge win against WVU, while Rutgers has been plodding along with winning the games they’re supposed to. New USF B.J. Daniels has played well for a freshman so far, and overall it looks as though these two teams are about even. I think USF’s offense is a little more dynamic, though, and should be able to outscore Rutgers in the end.

Friday
8:00: West Virginia @ Cincinnati (ESPN2): Even with the upset last week, WVU has a big chance to influence the Big East race as well as the national title picture. That said, I’ll take the team that isn’t coached by Bill Stewart.

8:30: Temple @ Akron (ESPNU): Akron was zipping along (pun intended) to a 1-11 season until they sprung (also intended) a huge upset over Kent State last weekend. The Owls, meanwhile, needed a last minute field goal to keep their own streak alive and beat one of the worst teams in the country in Miami (OH). So, Temple should win, but I expect it to be close again.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 10

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Saturday
Noon:

  • Northwestern @ Iowa (ESPN): Can Northwestern end our long, national nightmare championship game scenario? Probably not! Iowa wins 15-11.
  • Central Florida @ Texas (FSN): This is the Priceline of football games. Congratulations Colt McCoy, you can name your own score!
  • Syracuse @ Pittsburgh (ESPNU): Should I even bother waking up at 9 for these games? I mean, I usually sleep through the first half anyway, but this is ridiculous.
  • Purdue @ Michigan (BTN): I’m willing to chalk up the loss UIUC as a fluke. If Michigan loses to Purdue they’ve got problems.
  • Virginia @ University of Miami (Raycom/Gameplan): You know, I almost want UVA to win this game, because it would make it that much more difficult to fire Al Groh. (Now that GT has the UVA monkey off it’s back, I can go back to treating UVA as the terrible team they are.)
  • South Carolina @ Arkansas (SEC/Gameplan): I bet the Visor is playing lots of golf these days. Hitting drives, chipping on to greens, making putts. Trying to figure out exactly what he did to deserve this. Sure, South Carolina is 6-3, but they have no offense. How does a man, know for such a thing, deal with that? Whatever the case, they can still beat Arkansas.

12:30: Kansas @ Kansas State (Versus): Both of these teams are so bad, but I’ll go with the team that managed to beat Colorado.

2:30: Navy @ Notre Dame (NBC): Notre Dame isn’t great, but has begun an unfortunate rise in the polls. Hopefully Navy keeps it close.

3:30:

  • Louisiana State @ Alabama (CBS): I’m actually willing to accept that Alabama is a good football team at this point. In fact, they’re damn good, and I’m willing to downgrade my hatred to “loathing” to set up a match against Florida in the Georgia Dome next month. Okay, I still hat them, but I want to see that game.
  • Ohio State @ Pennsylvania State (ABC/ESPN2):I’ve already heard several times this week that this game will “decide the Big Ten”. That should tell you how much everyone hates Iowa. At any rate, if Ohio State calls this game like they did their other big game this season (against USC) they will lose. Of course, we still don’t really know anything about Penn State. I still like them to win, though.
  • Oklahoma State @ Iowa State (ABC/Gameplan): Somehow, I don’t see Iowa State holding OSU to 14 points.
  • Wake Forest @ Georgia Tech (ESPN2/ABC/Gameplan): Having expectations placed on your team is weird.
    At any rate, last week we did exactly what I said we couldn’t do (allow Vandy to stay in the game) but then Vandy started to play like, well, Vandy and we pulled away to a 56-31 win. Wake, however, will not rollover so easily. While Vandy isn’t incompetent, Wake probably does have slightly better players and are led by 50th year senior Riley Skinner. (Despite suffering a concussion last week against Miami, he will be starting.) Wake is always a tough assignment for Tech – our last meeting was in the 2006 ACC title game, which Wake won 9-6. (Though it did get Patrick Nix fired and then hired (for some reason) by Miami, which worked out great for us over the next two years.) And with the way the defense is playing, no doubt older Tech fans (and by “older”, I mean “a few years older than me”) are having PTSD-flashbacks to 1999, where the offense scored 38 points a game and still lost 4 time. The 3rd loss was to Wake Forest, dropping Tech to 7-3 and likely ruining any chances Joe Hamilton had of winning the Heisman.
    So, suffice it to say, Tech will need to do all it can to avoid a repeat of history.
    By the way, the other three losses that year? @FSU, @UVA, and to Miami in the Gator Bowl.
  • Oregon @ Stanford (FSN): Well, Stanford, you’ve had a good year so far. 5-3 overall, 4-2 in the Pac-10. Not bad, especially by Stanford standards. The problem with this rosy outlook? This game, @USC, vs. Cal, vs. Notre Dame. That 6th win may prove to be elusive, and they probably won’t find it here.
  • Duke @ North Carolina (ESPNU): Fun fact: even if Duke loses, they can still beat Tech next week and have a shot at the ACC title. That’s said, there’s little about this UNC team on defense or offense that has particularly impresses me. They still allowed nearly 400 yards passing to FSU. If Duke puts up similar numbers – and they should – they have a pretty good shot to win here.
  • Army @ Air Force (CBSCS): The battle for the Commander-in-Chief’s trophy continues in Colorado. Unfortunately, it’s hard to pick an Army team that was outscored 56-23 by Temple and Rutgers to win here.
  • Washington State @ Arizona (FCS Central): Why did I list this? I have no idea. Arizona.
  • Washington @ California-Los Angeles (FCS Pacific): (see above) U-dub.

4:00: Texas Christian @ San Diego State (Versus): SDSU is on a roll, by their standards, but TCU should still be able to take care of business here.

7:00:

  • Oregon State @ California (FSN): Cal’s rolled off 3 straight against the worst of the Pac-10, while Oregon State has pretty much lost when they were supposed to and win when they were supposed. That said, Cal is still having issues getting the ball to its best player and needed a last minute FG to get past Arizona State. I actually kind of like the Beavers here.
  • Memphis @ Tennessee (ESPNU): Mmm, delicious cupcakes.

7:15: Vanderbilt @ Florida (ESPN2): Too detailed prediction: Vandy hangs tough through the first quarter to make everyone go, “Hey, Florida’s only leading Vandy by 3 points” but the Tebow gets on track and is out of the game by the end of the 3rd quarter.

7:30:

  • Houston @ Tulsa (CBSCS): This game was supposed to be for the C-USA West title, but Tulsa’s sort of fallen off the wagon and has lost 3 straight, including losses to completely schizophrenic UTEP and also to SMU. Since their inexplicable loss to UTEP, Houston has won 4 straight mostly via a way we’d entirely expect: offense. I expect a lot of points in this game (akin to Houston’s shootout last weekend with Southern Miss) but the Cougars to prevail in the end.
  • Northern Arizona @ Mississippi (SEC/Gameplan): Ole Miss. Next.

7:45: Florida State @ Clemson (ESPN): It’s the Bowden— oh, right. At any rate, FSU really needs this to make itself relevant in the ACC Atlantic race again, while Clemson controls its own destiny, and in terms of that destiny FSU represents the last major hurdle (Clemson’s remaining ACC games are @NCSU and at home against UVA). We could see a reenactment of the Clemson-Miami game (if it’s half as exciting as that game was, well, this will be a pretty exciting game), but I don’t see a different outcome.

8:00:

  • Southern California @ Arizona State (ABC/Gameplan): Okay, so our illusions have been shattered, USC is mortal, blah blah. But let’s face it, USC should still be favored to win all their remaining bids and get themselves to a BCS game, and that process starts here.
  • Connecticut @ Cincinnati (Gameplan/ABC):Although this will almost certainly doom them, I really do think Cincy is “that good”, at least against their Big East compatriots. And this is the home stretch for the Bearcats, a win here and next week against WVU sets up the de-facto Big East championship game December 5th at Pittsburgh.
  • Oklahoma @ Nebraska (Gameplan/ABC): I’m not sure why, but the Big 12 doesn’t have a fix-opponent system for its divisions, and it really hurts here. (Of course, this is probably the only major intra-divisional rivalry in the Big 12, so that’s probably why.) At any rate, while Oklahoma probably won’t put up 68 (that’s not an exaggeration) like they did in last year’s beatdown, they’ll probably still win handily.

10:30: Fresno State @ Idaho (ESPNU): Ah, the late WAC game. You know you love it. At any rate, Idaho is bowl eligible for the first time since 1999 (as well as guaranteed their first winning season since 1999) versus usual suspect Fresno State, which sits at 5-3. This is at least worth watching for a bit because it’s in THE KIBBIE DOME. That said, I like Fresno to win.

Sunday
8:30: Nevada @ San Jose State (ESPN): I wonder how cheap I could get tickets to what will most likely be the Colin Kaepernik show? Nevada should win easily.

This Week in College Football: Week 10

Introducing “This Week in College Football”. With the proliferation of conferences desperate for ESPN’s money and exposure, we now have college ball on practically every day of the week. So each week, I’ll write up a short post about this week’s weekday games in the same vein as my weekend column.
As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Tuesday
7:00: Bowling Green @ Buffalo (ESPN2): This is probably an elimination game for getting 6-6, in this battle of 3-5 MAC teams. Though both sport negative scoring margins in MAC play, Buffalo has allowed its collegues to outscore them by over a touchdown per game and has one less conference win. I’ll go with BGSU here.

Thursday
7:30:

  • Virginia Tech @ East Carolina (ESPN): This ECU team certainly isn’t terrible, but in their other BCS-conference matchups versus WVU and UNC, they lost by a combined 29 points. VPI should be able to take care of business here.
  • Eastern Michigan @ Northern Illinois (ESPNU): Northern Illinois sits at 5-3 and needs only a win against the second worst team in major college football to get it. And they should.

Friday
8:00: Boise State @ Louisiana Tech (ESPN2): Well, LaTech almost beat Idaho last weekend but fell a point short. Of course, they also fell two points short of Utah State, which provided the Aggie’s first win over a DI-A team this year. So, uh, I have to say I like Boise here.

Bowl Predictions 2009: Week 3

Predictions here! Get your predictions here!

Before I do my usual thing, let me just say that for starters, this is every bowl eligible team. Keep in mind that there will be 2 or 3 new games next year. (Though with some of the matchups that are currently scheduled, and the current state of the economy, I think a few games may fold after this year.) When I started doing this shindig back in 1999, there were “only” 23 games. Now there are 34, which well over half the teams in Division I-A today, and right now I see only 68 teams getting eligible. Think about that for a second. While, yes, I don’t slavishly predict the record of every 3-5 MAC team to see if they’ll make it (which I do for the Big Six teams) things could break such that there are 70 teams or just as easily break such that there are 65 teams. I haven’t seen anything about what could happen if we don’t get to 68 this. Would the NCAA let 5-7 teams compete? I don’t know.

Anyway, let’s hit the major talking points.

BCS

  • The title game still looks to be Florida/Alabama versus Texas. With Florida’s stomping of Georgia on Saturday, it looks like they may have an edge over Alabama once again.
  • I’m slotting Alabama to the Sugar, and while I’m sure the Sugar will be glad to have them, they did go there last year and the BCS selection rules do allow for such situations.
  • I still have Iowa winning the Big Ten and Penn State getting an at-large bid. If Iowa does lose, that raises some interesting questions about the Big Ten’s ability to field two teams.
  • Despite the loss Saturday, USC will be favored in all their remaining games and should win out. Since they didn’t even fall out of the top 14 with their second loss, they’ll probably get into the Fiesta. Some folks I know believe Notre Dame may give the Fiesta pause if they’re eligible, though I doubt the ability of ND’s remaining schedule to catapult them far enough up the standings.
  • Right now, I only have one of TCU and Boise getting into the BCS. I think the only way both getting will happen is if one or two more undefeated teams lose. The only way both can ensure qualification is to finish at #3 and #4 in the final standings.
  • Though it pains to do so, I still put GT in the Orange. I am still extremely worried about picking us to win anything, of course.

ACC

  • With Virginia Tech’s loss last Thursday, any chance the ACC had of being a two-bid league were shot. The win does greatly help UNC’s ability to get bowl eligible, though.
  • Overall, I see 7 of the ACC’s 12 teams getting eligible, which is down from last year’s 10. This leaves the league two short, so it will not send a team to the Eaglebank or GMAC Bowls.
  • Yes, um, Carolina, that is Duke in a bowl game! Also note FSU getting to the Emerald, provided they can get to 6-6.

Big East

  • With an assist from Notre Dame going to the Gator, the Big East will fulfill its obligations.
  • I know USF went to the St. Petersburg last year, but I just don’t know where else to put them, and I would think that neither party particularly cares at this point, either.

Big XII

  • As per usual, the Big 12 North is a disaster. Kansas State is currently at the top of the table, but I don’t think there’s any way they’ll last there. In fact, I don’t even have them going to a bowl.
  • While Missouri is 1-3 in conference, they’ve pretty much played all the teams on their schedule they’re categorically worse than. I expect them to recover to 9-3 overall, losing the tiebreaker to Nebraska.
  • From the South, Texas will probably make the national title game, but at this point it doesn’t look good for Oklahoma State to get to a BCS game. The Cotton bowl isn’t a bad consolation prize, though.
  • With Texas A&M’s upset of Texas Tech two weeks ago, they’re actually 5-3 and need only to beat Baylor to get to 6-6.

Big Ten

  • I swear, Iowa is the worst undefeated team ever. Is there anyone who actually wants them to run the table? As I’ve pointed in the past, we have an irrational hatred of Kirk Ferenetz here, but their current “style” doesn’t help.
  • Ohio State is the wild card here, as they have yet to play Penn State and Iowa. I have them beating Iowa but losing to Penn State to slide into that old Big Ten standby, the Capital One Bowl.
  • Wisconsin should finish up 10-2 for a trip to Florida as well.
  • The rest of the Big Ten is extremely muddy. As awful as Michigan has been lately, they should still get to 6-6, though.

Pac-10

  • The King is dead; long live the King! As you no doubt know by now, USC lost! (Again.) With a 2 game lead and 4 games to go, Oregon has the conference pretty much clinched, along with a trip to Pasadena. The last time the USC didn’t go to the Rose Bowl was the 2004-5 season, when they went to the National Title game at the Orange Bowl instead.
  • Thanks to the magic of a full round-robin and a late ending conference season, the Pac-10 still has plenty of games to go. That said, with Oregon and USC going to the BCS I only see three other bowl eligible teams: Cal, Arizona, and Oregon State. I just don’t see two games on Stanford’s remaining schedule they should win, and Arizona State will come up just short.

SEC

  • Outside of a probable 10-2 LSU, the SEC’s bowl slate (again) looks pretty bleak. For starters, the SEC East looks terrible. With South Carolina’s loss to Tennessee, there is clear second place team anymore to send to the Outback. So be prepared for Lane Kiffin to say something dumb about whichever Big Ten team he faces and then lose by 20.
  • With LSU going to the Capital One, the representative for the Cotton is also equally debatable. I know Ole Miss went there last year, but I think the Peach will really want Auburn (travel time from Auburn to Atlanta: about 2 hours).
  • Provided they can make it, 6-6 Kentucky and Arkansas should round out the SEC’s field to full strength.

Somewhat Non-Obvious Matchup of the Week: BYU-Boise State. It could happen if Boise doesn’t make the BCS, which would give the WAC 4 bowl eligible teams. Since the Pac-10 won’t send a team to the Poinsettia in all likelihood, this will allow them once again to get one of the best mid-major matchups since the WAC has the backup slot. Personally, I’d prefer Utah-Boise in the Las Vegas Bowl, but I don’t think that’ll happen.