Yearly Archives: 2022

Bowl Predictions 2022: Week 3

They’re up, hot and fresh over at the usual place. Let’s hit the high notes.

  • I wound up short 1 team, so I slotted JMU in per the NCAA criteria. I still need to confirm if this is actually possible. For now, we continue to tick up to the required number: we now have 64 bowl eligible teams, so we need 18 more.
  • The playoff picture looks different this week since I wound up doing this after the post-Week 11 rankings were released. I’m counting on LSU getting punished for losing to UGA in the SEC Championship Game, otherwise, we’ll probably have 4 SEC teams. Tennessee will continue to be a fringe playoff contender unless they lose, and Bama doesn’t look like it can fall out of the top 10.
  • Man, Texas-Oregon would be a rad Alamo Bowl. And, of course, we continue to project, and root for, the ultimate Sun Bowl rematch.
  • Finally, shout out to the University of Connecticut Huskies, for not only defeating Liberty, but getting to 6 wins in the process. Look, if we wind up with 82 other teams that are bowl eligible, the Huskies probably won’t get in, since they don’t have any official tie-ins and among other teams in that situation (BYU and Liberty), they’re probably at the bottom of the pecking order. It always seems to shake out that enough upsets happen to get us to enough teams, but if we’re at exactly 82 or less, UConn’s going to go bowling for the first time for the first time since 2015.

 

This Weekend in College Football: Week 11

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Missouri @ Tennessee (CBS): Tennessee figures to bounce back against a good defense instead of an all-time great one like they faced last weekend.
  • Notre Dame vs. Navy (@Baltimore, MD; ABC): This game is all about an old promise made, otherwise, it’s notable for a long losing streak. While that streak was interrupted a while back, this year doesn’t figure to help with the perception.
  • Indiana @ Ohio State (FOX): Indiana has had a mixed season, but they shouldn’t take the expected blowout here too hard.
  • Louisiana State @ Arkansas (ESPN): Arkansas can definitely still sneak up and WOMP ya, but LSU seems to have arrived very quickly under Brain Kelly. Again, this game is always tricky for the Tigers, but I like them here.
  • Purdue @ Illinois (ESPN2): I don’t really want to think about this game that much, so, uh, Illni?
  • Oklahoma @ West Virginia (FS1): Neal Brown might be coaching for his job here, which, well, that doesn’t project to work out too well!
  • Southern Methodist @ South Florida (ESPNU): USF is just… bad. Ponies rumble here.
  • Vanderbilt @ Kentucky (SEC): Vandy is just… bad. Cayuts tread all over them here.
  • Pittsburgh @ Virginia (ACCN): I’m still not sure what’s going on with Pitt this year, but I like their chances to complete smother a hapless UVA team and win with defense.
  • Rutgers @ Michigan State (BTN): It’s been a weird year for both of these teams, but Sparty just figures to have a talent advantage here.
  • Liberty @ Connecticut (CBSS): I want the Huskies to win so bad, but after what Liberty did to Arkansas last week, I just can’t pick them.
  • Virginia Tech @ Duke (ACC/RSN): Duke figures to romp here, which says more about the Hokies than anything else. Then again, the ACC Coastal is just seemingly a massive rock fight this year, so who knows?

1:00:

  • James Madison @ Old Dominion (ESPN+)
  • Louisiana-Monroe @ Georgia State (ESPN+)

3:00: Temple @ Houston (ESPN+)

3:30:

  • Maryland @ Pennsylvania State (FOX): The Terps likely want to make something out of this season, but Penn State’s position as the most thoroughly third-best team in the Big Ten makes that unlikely.
  • Nebraska @ Michigan (ABC): The Michigan-Ohio State clash in a couple weeks just feels inevitable.
  • Alabama @ Mississippi (CBS): This game figures to be tough for the Tide, but the main reason they lost to LSU last week was that the Tigers’ defense was able to barely contain a pedestrian (by Bama standards) offense. I don’t think Ole Miss has the talent to pull that trick off two weeks in a row.
  • Louisville @ Clemson (ESPN): While Louisville is better than anyone expected this year under what figured to be a dead-man walking in Scott Satterfield, I still can’t pick them to beat even this relatively mediocre Clemson team.
  • Central Florida @ Tulane (ESPN2): Arguable the game of the week, this figures to be for G5 supremacy. I still like Cincy personally, and I’ll take the Gus Bus and UCF here.
  • Iowa State @ Oklahoma State (ESPNU): Is Oklahoma State’s careening vehicle enough to make me pick the Cyclones here? It looks pretty dodgy, and you know what, I don’t track these anyway, so let’s have some fun.
  • Wisconsin @ Iowa (FS1): Speaking of fun… this figures to be the opposite of that. Iowa, since they’re at home and Wisconsin has enough trouble scoring as-is.
  • Boston College @ North Carolina State (ACCN): BC is just hapless, Wolfpack all the way here.
  • Northwestern @ Minnesota (BTN): Not sure what happened with the boat and the rowing thereof, but this figures to be a win for the Gophers.
  • New Mexico @ Air Force (CBSS): Air Force all the way here.
  • Army @ Troy (NFLN): Similarly, Troy.
  • Arizona State @ Washington State (Pac12): I can’t think of a reason that the Sun Devils would win this at the moment.
  • North Texas @ Alabama-Birmingham (Stadium)
  • Miami @ Georgia Tech (ACC/RSN): We sure did beat VPI last weekend, huh. It was a weird game in the midst of a weird season. I don’t think Brent Key has locked up the permanent gig, at least, I hope not. We still have a lot of problems on both sides of the ball that I don’t think can really be fixed in season. We may have a QB battle in our midst as well, but I still like Sims if he’s healthy just because he’s more dynamic. Either way, my honest thought is that this game is gettable, but on paper at least Miami should out-talent us. It should be interesting.
  • Charlotte @ Middle Tennessee State (espn3.com)
  • Appalachian State @ Marshall (“Mountain Warfare”; ESPN+)
  • Louisiana Tech @ Texas-San Antonio (ESPN+)

4:00: South Carolina @ Florida (SEC):

5:00: Texas State @ South Alabama (ESPN+)

7:00:

  • Washington @ Oregon (FOX): This classic Pacific Northwest rivalry is renewed once again, and I’m definitely looking forward to a shootout here. Still, hard not to like the Ducks at home.
  • Georgia @ Mississippi State (ESPN): If there’s any team that seems incapable for suffering a let down after a big win, it seems to be Georgia.
  • Kansas State @ Baylor (FS1): K-State has been good, but the degree to which they can get away with against more talented teams on the road is still a coin flip. While they do it more often than most, it’s hard to exactly rely on it.
  • Wyoming @ Colorado State (“Border War”; CBSS): This is a pretty old rivalry game (played 113 times!) but it won’t get a lot of sizzle. At least this year, that’s because the Rams are awful.
  • Florida Atlantic @ Florida International (“Shula Bowl”; Stadium)
  • Kansas @ Texas Tech (ESPN+)

7:30:

  • Texas Christian @ Texas (ABC): I have Texas winning here. Don’t ask why, because nothing subjective in my head thinks that the Longhorns will win. Every objective ranking has the Horns all the way, though.
  • North Carolina @ Wake Forest (ESPN2): I HOPE YOU LIKE POINTS, because boy howdy this game is gonna deliver! That said, I’m worried about Wake, as they just haven’t been the same since that Louisville game. This means I’m picking UNC, but I’m not happy about it. And, again, this is going to be very points-y.
  • Southern Mississippi @ Coastal Carolina (ESPNU): Beach Chickens all the way here.
  • Texas A&M @ Auburn (SEC): So Auburn nearly did the thing last week after firing Harsin, but they lost in overtime to Miss State. They’ll get another chance over perhaps the worst team in the SEC. TAMU isn’t bad on paper, of course, but they look so inept in games, especially on offense, every game turns in a “will they really pay Jimbo Fisher $95 million to not coach” a serious question worth considering. I’ll pick Auburn.

8:00: Florida State @ Syracuse (ACCN): FSU seems to have figured some things out.

9:00: California @ Oregon State (Pac12): Beavers, because they’re more fun and it feels weird picking Cal under almost any circumstance.

10:00: Stanford @ Utah (ESPN): Stanford is trying, but I just don’t see them scoring against the Utes. Like, this could seriously be a shutout.

10:30:

  • Arizona @ California-Los Angeles (FOX): Zona is a speedbump on the way to what figures to be an epic UCLA-USC clash next week.
  • San Jose State @ San Diego State (FS1): San Jose State is good, which I still find surprising, and the Aztecs, well, I still don’t really want to think about this. Either way, I don’t think they’re as good on defense as they’ve been and the offense is still anemic. so the West Coast Sparty all the way here.
  • Boise State @ Nevada (CBSS): Nevada is just… bad. Boise isn’t good this year, but the rest of the Mountain West is down bad enough that it kinda doesn’t matter.

11:00: Utah State @ Hawaii (Team1Sports)

Bowl Predictions 2022: Week 2

Okay, they’re hot and ready right over here.

Let’s actually talk shop a bit, since I did the last ones in a rush. For starters, the site is now full of information. I don’t think a lot of other people take the time to actually figure out bowl and conference affiliations, at least to the extent that I do. While the proliferation of ESPN Events bowls makes affiliation less important than it used to be, some conferences do still have subtle agreements in place that makes a difference.

We’re now up to 52 bowl eligible teams (from 37) after last weekend. I forecast the remaining games on each potential team’s schedule using SP+, which allows me to be as consistent as possible. Of course, this also means that I’m more or less going chalk whenever possible. Upsets do happen, which is more or less how we’re going to get the 82 eligible teams that we need.

There are some question marks that I do not know the answer to, other than just the general idea of trying to do these predictions in the first place. For starters, based on my reading of the NCAA rules, I think that James Madison may be eligible before any 5-7 teams are eligible. Again, as we gain more and more eligible teams this may be moot (they were the “last team in” to borrow a term from the NCAA basketball tournament), and maybe that’s what everyone is banking on. Also, I need to determine if Army needs to get to 6 wins before the two-week break they have before the Navy game. Right now I have them getting their 6th win against the Midshipmen, so this matters.

Then, of course, there’s the other order of the day due to the events of the past weekend, where Tennessee, Alabama, and Clemson lost. Since I try to do these on Monday, before the new CFP rankings come out, it’s hard for me to use the new rankings as an indication of the Committee’s thinking. For sure, if Georgia and Ohio State win out, they will be #1 and #2, and Michigan is also likely #2 if they win out. From there, I am not sure of the exact order of these teams:

  • 1-loss ACC Champ Clemson
  • 1-loss ACC Champ North Carolina
  • 1-loss Ohio State or Michigan
  • 1-loss Pac-12 Champ Oregon
  • 1-loss Tennessee
  • Undefeated Big 12 Champ TCU

Right now I have it somewhat easy because I have TCU losing twice to Texas (due to SP+). What you see on the site currently reflects that and also what I think the Committee will do. Oregon will get a shot if they win out. Despite their 40+ point loss to Georgia Labor Day weekend, they’ll have an otherwise good resume from beating the other top teams in the Pac-12. Clemson and UNC have now both lost to Notre Dame, and this also leaves the both of them without a true “statement” win (Clemson’s best win is probably… Florida State?). So, yeah, I could see a 1-loss Tennessee getting in over either, and that’s what I think will happen.

Otherwise, this promises to be an interesting bowl season. If for no other reason than because if I’m right, we’ll get the rematch of the best worst bowl game ever.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 10

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

11:30: Air Force vs. Army (@Arlington, TX; CBS): Air Force has been weirdly bad as of late, but so far this season Army has mostly just been regular bad.

Noon:

  • Ohio State @ Northwestern (ABC): The question isn’t if Ohio State will score so much as if they’ll score 100.
  • Texas Tech @ Texas Christian (FOX): TCU needs to channel their “disrespect” from being only 7th in the initial playoff rankings into taking care of business against the Red Raiders.
  • Florida @ Texas A&M (ESPN): Going with the Gators here because I’m not sure if Jimbo knows what offense is anymore.
  • Minnesota @ Nebraska (ESPN2): I think the Gophers are good enough to win here.
  • Iowa @ Purdue (FS1): Purdue needs to figure out a way to score, let’s say, 3 times. That should more or less do the trick
  • Tulane @ Tulsa (ESPNU): Green Wave all the way here.
  • Kentucky @ Missouri (SEC): For reasons that were on my control, but not aren’t…
  • North Carolina @ Virginia (ACCN): Lightning round! Also UNC.
  • Maryland @ Wisconsin (BTN): Wisky.
  • Western Kentucky @ Charlotte (CBSS): Hilltoppers.

12:30: Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech (“Techmo Bowl”; ACC/RSN): It’s the last Techmo Bowl for a while because vendors are cutting costs. The game won’t be annual next season. For now it counts, and count it has. I don’t like our chances, but this is still more fun than it was a month ago.

2:00:

  • South Florida @ Temple (ESPN+)
  • Marshall @ Old Dominion (ESPN+)

3:00:

  • Middle Tennessee State @ Louisiana Tech (ESPN+)
  • Georgia State @ Southern Mississippi (ESPN+)
  • Baylor @ Oklahoma (ESPN+)

3:30:

  • Tennessee @ Georgia (CBS): I want Tennessee to win this so bad, go Valws.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Indiana (ABC): Penn State.
  • Oregon @ Colorado (ESPN): Ducks.
  • Central Florida @ Memphis (ESPN2): UCF.
  • Oklahoma State @ Kansas (FS1): Pokes.
  • Syracuse @ Pittsburgh (ACCN): Pitt.
  • Michigan State @ Illinois (BTN): Sparty?
  • New Mexico @ Utah State (CBSS): UMN?
  • Washington State @ Stanford (Pac12): Wazzu.
  • Texas-San Antonio @ Alabama-Birmingham (Stadium): Meeps.
  • West Virginia @ Iowa State (ESPN+)

4:00:

  • Navy @ Cincinnati (ESPNU): Cincy.
  • Liberty @ Arkansas (SEC): Womp!
  • South Alabama @ Georgia Southern (ESPN+)
  • Florida International @ North Texas (ESPN+)

5:00:

  • Texas State @ Louisiana-Monroe (espn3.com)
  • Troy @ Louisiana (ESPN+)

7:00:

  • Alabama @ Louisiana State (ESPN): Bama.
  • Texas @ Kansas State (FS1): K-State
  • Brigham Young @ Boise State (FS2): Boise?
  • Nevada-Las Vegas @ San Diego State (CBSS): Aztecs?
  • Houston @ Southern Methodist (NFLN): Cougs?

7:30:

  • Florida State @ Miami (ABC): FSU, because they can score.
  • Clemson @ Notre Dame (NBC): Tigers.
  • Auburn @ Mississippi State (ESPN2): Not Tigers.
  • James Madison @ Louisville (ESPNU): Cards.
  • South Carolina @ Vanderbilt (SEC):  Gamecocks.
  • Michigan @ Rutgers (BTN): Michigan
  • Arizona @ Utah (Pac12): Utes.

8:00: Wake Forest @ North Carolina State (ACCN): Wake?

10:30:

  • California @ Southern California (ESPN): Trojans.
  • California-Los Angeles @ Arizona State (FS1): Bruins.
  • Hawaii @ Fresno State (FS2): Aztecs.
  • Colorado State @ San Jose State (NBCBA/MWCN)

 

Bowl Predictions 2022: Week 1

I wanted to these with the release of the College Football Playoff rankings this year, so some changes I’d planned to make I had to scrap at the last minute. So, yeah, the matchups aren’t there yet, but they’ll be fixed by next week’s edition. For now, take a look at this.

I’m getting a little better at parsing my way though ESPN Events bowl games, but nonetheless this is way more of a crapshoot than it was before most of the current agreements took effect in 2020.

Just like last year, I am using SP+ to predict every team’s path to bowl eligibility (or not). This has left me short six teams, but I’m pretty sure we’ll get some upsets that will allow this number to shrink over the coming weeks. I’ll have more notes in future weeks, but for now, enjoy!