Monthly Archives: September 2013

This Weekend in College Football: Week 2

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Florida @ Miami (ESPN): This has always been an under-played rivialry, with the two in-state foes having only met 55 times. (Though as EDSBS is fond of saying, football didn’t really exist in the state of Florida before 1980.) I personally have to give Florida the edge in this one, as they seem to exist in some sort of version of existence where offense is entirely optional.
  • Cincinnati @ Illinois (ESPN2): Cincy isn’t great or anything, but Illinois isn’t really even good, so that’s what this one is probably going to come down to.
  • South Florida @ Michigan State (ESPNU): Let’s just say that it is very difficult to pick in favor of a team that lost to McNeese State last weekend.
  • Oklahoma State @ Texas-San Antonio (FS1): Oklahoma State.
  • Eastern Michigan @ Pennsylvania State (BTN): Penn State.
  • Western Kentucky @ Tennessee (SEC): Tennessee.
  • Miami @ Kentucky (SEC/FSN): Kentucky?

12:30: Middle Tennessee State @ North Carolina (ACC): Well, MTSU won its last game against an ACC team, but nonetheless I like UNC’s chances here.

3:30:

  • Oregon @ Virginia (ABC/ESPN2): Oregon.
  • San Diego State @ Ohio State (ABC/ESPN2): Ohio State.
  • Buffalo @ Baylor (FSN): Baylor.
  • Toledo @ Missouri (ESPNU): Mizzou?
  • Utah State @ Air Force (CBSS): This might be the most interesting game of this bunch, which is kind of saying something. I would go with Utah State here after their close loss to big brother Utah last weekend, but I’m going to roll with the Air Force.

4:30: South Carolina @ Georgia (ESPN): And we’re finally out of the doldrums. This one is going to be pretty good I think, but unfortunately I have to give UGA a slight edge at home. I don’t want to, but there it is.

6:00: Syracuse @ Northwestern (BTN): Northwestern had a pretty good drubbing of Cal last weekend, good enough to make be feel good enough about their chances at home against the Orange.

7:00:

  • West Virginia @ Oklahoma (FOX): West, er, Frickin’ Virginia will get its first chance to show that may actually play defense this year in what will probably be difficult conditions. It’s hard to see them passing the test.
  • Texas @ Brigham Young (ESPN2): Texas can probably take care of business in Provo. Probably.
  • Alabama-Birmingham @ Louisiana State (ESPNU): LSU.
  • Colorado State @ Tulsa (CBSS): Hey so is Tulsa any good this year… (checks) … let’s see… lost to Bowling Green 34-7. Off. Going with the Rams.

7:30: Arkansas State @ Auburn (SEC/FSN): The fact I had to think about this for a second says way more about Auburn than Arkansas State. Still going with Auburn though.

8:00:

  • Notre Dame @ Michigan (ESPN): Game of the day, but is this really going to be that close? Emotion can only carry you so far. That said, we have precious little data at this point of the season, what with both teams having dispatched their designated patsies last week. So, yeah, basically I’m just guessing here, and my guess is going to be the Irish.
  • Hawaii @ Oregon (PAC12): Oregon.

10:30:

  • Washington State @ Southern California (FS1): Southern Cal?
  • Arizona @ Nevada-Las Vegas (CBSS): Arizona.
  • San Jose State @ Stanford (PAC12): Stanford.

Sorry for the abbreviated preview, but that’s what you get when this is written at 37,000 feet somewhere over eastern Nevada. We’ll be back in full next weekend.

    2014 World Cup Update: As of September 5

    Soon, a fresh new batch of qualifiers will kick off around the world. We preview where the remaining teams stand and the obstacles they face between themselves and Brazil.

     Other than the hosts, 4 teams have qualified, 87 are still in play, and 27 spots remain.

    AFC
    Asia’s automatic qualifiers are now in place: Iran, South Korea, Japan, and Australia. But to determine their playoff qualifier against a South American team, the third place teams from their fourth round, Jordan and Uzbekistan, will kick off tomorrow. The games will take place Friday and Tuesday, and the winner on aggregate advances to the aforementioned playoff. Considering that they lost on a goal differential tiebreaker to South Korea, Uzbekistan should be the favorites. (The Jordanians sported a -9 goal differential to Uzbekistan’s +5.)

    CAF
    As you might’ve seen in the post on what’s needed to advance, there’s plenty of action on the last day of the CAF 2nd Round. Groups C, G, and H are settled though: Cote d’Ivorie, Egypt, and Algeria are all through to the third round, which will kickoff in October. Those three teams will join all the other group winners, and they will all be paired off in home-and-home ties. The winner of each of those advances directly to the World Cup.

    CONCACAF
    There’s actually a fun scenario I didn’t list on the page for CONCACAF, but mostly because it requires a very specific set of circumstances: the US must defeat Costa Rica, Mexico and Honduras must draw, and Panama must lose or draw against Jamaica. It’s complex because you can’t do the “add future points to current points”, you have to take the remaining schedules into account. (For instances, if Costa Rica wins out after losing to the US, then it’s not possible for Mexico win out, etc.)

    Of course, that’s unlikely to happen. Jamaica has earned zero points in road games this round, and managed only a 1-1 draw at home with Panama. Mexico will be (well, they should be) desperate to hold serve at home against Honduras, though it’s not inconceivable Mexico will remain the same punchless team they’ve been most of this year and only manage a draw against what is likely to be a bunkered-in Honduras.

    CONMEBOL
    The top four teams currently are Argentina, Colombia, Ecuador, and Chile. Argentina has clinched at least a spot on the AFC-CONMEBOL playoff, but they don’t play Friday so as far as I know they cannot clinch yet. The top four lead the 5th place team, Uruguay, by 5 points, which is comfortable but not yet insurmountable. They also have a winnable game against Peru on Friday that should allow them to keep up with the top 4 for now. Tied with Uruguay though are the surprising Venezuelans, who are seeking their first ever trip to the World Cup.

    UEFA
    The European picture lacks a great amount of clarity, despite most teams having four or fewer matches remaining.

    The clearest is perhaps Group A, where Belgium or Croatia will make it past the first round, but since they are sitting on 19 and 16 points, respectively, it’s not clear who will come in first yet. Belgium seems to be the obvious candidate, undefeated so far in group play, but they still have to go on the road to Zagreb in October.

    Though no one has been eliminated yet in Group B, Italy a slight edge as Bulgaria and the Czech Republic fight for second. If Italy can hold serve against Bulgaria at home on Friday, then they can start to get a little bit of separation.

    Germany is close. They have 5 wins, 1 draw, and no losses in group play so far and have a 5 point lead over Austria. The real battle in Group C is the fight for second, as Austria, Sweden, and Ireland all sit on 11 points, so things could get pretty interesting come October.

    The Dutch are running away with Group D, holding a 7 point lead over Hungary. Hungary themselves are only a point ahead of Romania. The fight is probably for second in Group E as well. Switzerland has a 4 point lead, but 4 points is all that separates second from fifth.

    Group F is a tossup. Portugal (14), Russia (12), and Israel (11) are all within three points of the lead, a situation made all the more interesting when, back in August, Russia lost a snow make-up game to Northern Ireland. All three should win their matches Friday, meaning the real action starts on Tuesday when Russia plays Israel.

    It’s tempting to go with the chalk in Group G, where Bosnia has 16 points (and a +20 goal differential), Greece has 13 points, and Slovakia has 9. But I would say don’t count out the Slovaks, who made the Sweet 16 in South Africa.

    Group H proves looks can deceiving. Montenegro is topping the group with 14 points, but they’ve played one more game than England (12) and the Ukraine (11). Also on Friday, England and the Ukraine get winnable matches against minnows, while Poland at least stands a chance against Montenegro.

    Everyone thought Group I would be a two-horse race, especially since those horses are the reigning champions and France. And, well, that’s pretty much the way it’s played out, but right now the Spanish are only up by a point. The difference in the group could be Spain’s win over France back in March.

    That’s that! Don’t forget that ESPN will be streaming a boatload of qualifiers online, so be sure to catch them.

    2014 World Cup Update: Selected Scenarios for September 6

    These are the advancement scenarios for the African World Cup qualifiers to be held on September 6th. More teams in other confederations with likely be able to clinch advancement on Tuesday, so we’ll examine them after Friday’s action.

    CAF

    16 teams from 7 groups attempting to advance to the Third Round. Cote d’Ivoire (Group C), Egypt (Group G), and Algeria (Group H) have already clinched.

    Group A

    Current leaders Ethiopia will advance with:

    • A win over Central African Republic
    • A draw and a South Africa draw or loss to Botswana
    • A loss and a draw between South Africa and Botswana

    South Africa can advance with:

    • A win over Botswana and an Ethiopia loss to Central African Republic

    Botswana can advance with a win over South Africa and an Ethiopia loss to Central African Republic.

    Group B

    Tunisia and Cape Verde top the group with 11 and 9 points, respectively. Tunisia advances with a win or draw and Cape Verde advances with a win.

    Group D

    Ghana and Zambia top the group with 12 and 11 points, respectively. Ghana advances with a win or draw while Zambia must win.

    Group E

    Current leaders Congo advance with:

    • A win over Niger
    • A draw and a Burkina Faso loss to Gabon
    • A loss and a Burkina Faso draw as long as Congo loses by only 1 goal
    • A loss by 2 goals and a Burnkina Faso draw results in more complicated scenarios
    • A loss and a Gabon win over Burkina Faso by less than 4 goals, or 5 goals with more complicated scenarios

    Burnkina Faso can advance with a win over Gabon and a Congo loss or draw to Niger; or a draw and a Congo loss by more than 2 goals.

    Gabon can advance with a win and a Congo loss to Niger by more than 4 goals.

    Group F

    Nigeria leads Malawi 9 points to 7. If Nigeria beats or draws Malawi they advance, while Malawi needs a win.

    Group I

    Cameroon leads Libya 10 points to 9. If Cameroon beats or draws Libya they advance, while Libya must win.

    Group J

    Senegal leads Uganda 9 points to 8. If Senegal beats or draws Uganda, they advance, while Uganda must win.