Monthly Archives: November 2008

This Weekend in College Football: Week 12

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Notre Dame vs. Navy (@Baltimore, MD; CBS): Should Navy win this game? Probably not, despite everything ND still had more talent on both sides of the ball. Can Navy win this game? Almost certainly, and I’ll project them to the upset.
  • Ohio State @ Illinois (ESPN): That Pryor guy’s pretty good, I hear. OSU names their own score.
  • Northwestern @ Michigan (ESPN2): When people talk about how boring ACC football is, I think of Big Ten football and games like this. Despite how bad Michigan has been they could definitely win this game, but I think NU pulls it out anyway.
  • Indiana @ Pennsylvania State (BTN): Penn State had their bad game of the year last weekend, but unfortunately (for them) it was against a mediocre Iowa team and they don’t have the schedule to make up for it. They’ll get back on the Rose Bowl tracks against the Hoosiers, though.
  • Duke @ Clemson (Raycom/Gameplan): Man, I don’t know about Duke anymore. They started off so well! Then they, uh, lost to by far the worst team in the ACC last week. Whoops! Anyway, I’m going to go ahead and take the Tigers. Duke is just, you know, Duke at this point instead of “darkhorse ACC sleeper”.

12:30:

  • Texas @ Kansas (FSN): Texas doesn’t need William Shatner to explain that they can name their own score for this one.
  • Georgia @ Auburn (Raycom/Gameplan): Georgia may easily be one of the most disappointing teams in the country this year. And I couldn’t be happier about it. I’d be really happy if they, say, ended the season on a 2-note losing streak. Once again, though, my heart says “maybe they’ll play like this did last week against Kentucky but lose this time” but my brain says that “Auburn hasn’t beaten anyone worth a damn this year and has lost 4 straight against DI-A competition”. So I’ll go with the brain. For now.

3:30:

  • South Carolina @ Florida (CBS): South Carolina isn’t a bad football team, no. But what follows is the amount of points Florida has scored against SEC competition since their miscue against Ole Miss: 38, 51, 63, 49, and 42. For those of you as calculator dependent as I am, that’s 48.6 points per game. And that’s not terrible. What I’m trying to say is while The Visor going back to Gainesville makes a good storyline this probably won’t be a good game.
  • California @ Oregon State (ABC/Gameplan): Oregon State controlling their own destiny is the one thing I don’t think I’ve heard anyone on TV talking about. I know it’s sort of a long shot considering their remaining schedule, but still! This would have huge effects on the BCS bowls because Oregon State is not even sniffing the rankings. That said, it’s tough to predict how they will perform against the first decent team they’ve played since Utah. I’m going to test the waters here and predict an OSU win.
  • Minnesota @ Wisconsin (ESPN/ABC/Gameplan): Yet Another Big Ten Game That Involves a Trophy. Man, we should invent a trophy for our “rivalry” against, say, Duke! Yeah, there you go. Anyway, Wisconsin has dominated this series over the past 4 years, but I think despite the loss to Michigan last week Minnesota is poised to turn the tide.
  • North Carolina @ Maryland (Gameplan/ESPN/ABC): This is an ACC football game involving two teams within a couple games of each other. Most outside observers would say this is pretty much a toss-up, but UNC has really been the most consistent team in the conference. I am not even kidding. And for UMD, there are worse teams to lose to than VPI, but I think UNC is a reasonably talented football team and will win. (Now watch Maryland hang 50 on them for no apparent reason.)
  • Brigham Young @ Air Force (CBSCS): I was thinking about dropping the CBS College Sports games this week, but then I saw this matchup and realized I’d feature it anyway. While Air Force doesn’t control its own destiny in the Mountain West, it can sure affect BYU’s chance to knock Utah off at the end of the year. That said, I still think BYU is capable of defeating Air Force, blowout loss to TCU nonwithstanding.

6:30: Missouri @ Iowa State (FSN): Man, what is it like to lose eight straight games? Like, it’s one thing to lose all of them, Wazzou-style. But Iowa State started off 2-0! Anyway, Oklahoma State put up 59 on them a few weeks ago and I guess Mizzou will try to top that for style points or something.

7:00: Southern California @ Stanford (Versus): I almost went to this game, but apparently people are actually bothering to show up for this so the tickets are ridiculously expensive. Just out of spite, I will predict a USC win. Oh screw it, they’ll win yes, but I’m rooting for the Cardinal just because it’s more fun that way.

7:45: Mississippi State @ Alabama (ESPN): I think I said this last week but I think the odds of this edition of Alabama getting Croom’d this year are pretty slim. Anyway, if I had a cowbell I’d be ringing it throughout this contest, but in reality the Sabanators will probably win by 30 or 40.

8:00:

  • Boston College @ Florida State (Gameplan/ABC): Things FSU will not do this weekend: pass, as they’ve suspsended 5 WRs. Unfortunately for them, that was kind of a weapon for them this year. Do they still have the talent to beat BC? Probably, but so did ND and BC took care of business 17-0. This one will be a close, offensive-less ACC battle probably in the 14-10 neighborhood. I think BC will have the 14.
  • Oklahoma State @ Colorado (ABC/Gameplan): I’m not sure what this game did to deserve the prime time slot. OSU by like 30 or whatever.
  • Vanderbilt @ Kentucky (ESPN2): Vandy! You coulda been a contenda! But you had to lose the mojo and lose 4-straight, including two inexplicable losses to Duke and Mississippi State. 1 win! That’s how close you are! For once, I’ll take the sentimental favorite just because.

10:15: California-Los Angeles @ Washington (FSN): Sometimes I look forward to these late-night West Coast games, especially since they’re not really all that late here. Not this one, though. Anyway, UCLA all the way.

BCS Shenanigans: Oregon State Edition

So I based my bowl predictions on the idea that Oregon State will, actually, you know, lose again. But here’s OSU’s remaining schedule:

  • 11/15: vs. California
  • 11/22: @Arizona
  • 11/29: vs. Oregon

It’s probable they’ll lose to one of those teams. Though they beat USC, they subsequently lost to Utah the next week and their new found 4-game winning streak has been against the 4 worst teams in the Pac-10 (UCLA, Arizona State, Washington, and Washington State). But what if they don’t lose again? Well, they would earn the Pac-10’s auto-bid to the Rose Bowl. So let’s re-evaluate the BCS selection process, using the same set of assumptions I use in my normal bowl predictions:

  1. Set the auto-bids. Alabama and Texas Tech go to the title game, VPI goes to the Orange, Penn State and Oregon State go to the Rose.
  2. The Sugar gets first pick of the remaining auto-bid teams (the Big East winner, Utah, Texas, and Florida). The Sugar being where it is, they’ll be more than happy with another SEC team and take the Sugar.
  3. The Fiesta gets the next pick to replace Texas Tech. The Fiesta also has the first at-large pick, so they effectively get to setup whatever matchup they want. There are still 3 auto-bids left, so of those 3 let’s say they take Texas. The Fiesta probably doesn’t want Utah or the Big East champ, so they leave them to the Sugar and Orange to sort out while they take stock of the eligible at-large teams. The juciest prizes are almost certainly a 2-loss Ohio State and a 1-loss Southern Cal. All things being equal, I’m guessing they take USC.
  4. The Sugar and Orange then have to take the Big East champ and Utah.

So who does OSU’s win over Southern Cal effect the most? Monetarily, probably the other OSU, who will lose some $13 million or so by going to the Capital One Bowl instead of the Fiesta. So, for those of you stuck in Columbus or the other reaches of Ohio, I suggest you become big Cal, Arizona, and Oregon fans in a hurry.

Bowl Predictions, Week 4

Here ya go. Let’s do this.

  • Got officially back onto the Florida bandwagon, they should make a BCS bowl over Georgia even if they lose to Alabama in the SECCG.
  • The Big 12 and SEC will be 2 teams short of a full slate. I don’t see this changing unless some really unlikely stuff occurs.
  • As for the ACC, who the hell knows? They will have at least 9 bowl eligible teams, though.
  • Yes, Virginia, you do see both Buffalo and Florida International on there, though FIU is pretty much a stand-in for “any eligible Sun Belt team”. Buffalo will probably be at least 7-5, though.
  • Just a reminder, even though I do have USC going to the Rose if Oregon State wins out they will have the tiebreaker over USC. Which makes things interesting for the Fiesta, as they’d have a choice (most likely) of Texas, Ohio State, and USC and could only pick two.
  • Somewhat Non-Obvious Matchup of the Week: Oregon State-Oklahoma State, Holiday Bowl. Not exactly non-obvious, but Oregon State is strangely buyount this season and Oklahoma State should have no problems scoring points. The Holiday’s repuation as a good bowl should remain intact. Imagine if USC falls to here (though they probably won’t)?

This Weekend in College Football: Week 11

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Michigan @ Minnesota (ESPN): After their thrilling loss to the Fightin’ Kafkas last week, I expect a pedestrian beatdown of the Wolverines, whose season, and bowl streak, is shot.
  • Ohio State @ Northwestern (ESPN2): Just how good is this Northwestern team? We’re about to find out for sure. Considering the losses to Michigan State and Indiana, my guess is “not very good”. OSU by a few field goals.
  • Baylor @ Texas (FSN): I’m looking forward to seeing what Baylor can do next year. Tomorrow? Not so much. Texas by 30 or so.
  • Purdue @ Michigan State (BTN): Michigan State continues their pleasure cruise through the Big Ten and a probably Capital One Bowl berth.
  • Georgia Tech @ North Carolina (Raycom/Gameplan): Huge game for both teams, though neither currently controls their own destiny in the ACC Coastal. Both teams are still in it, but need VPI and Virginia to lose. The loser of this game is more than likely out of it, period. GT is ahead of every other ACC team in the conference schedule at the moment, with 6 games down and 2 to go. They have an off week which is desperately needed.
    And that’s going to be Tech’s biggest problem in this game.
    UNC is probably the most competent passing team in the ACC, which is probably not saying much but still. This is bad news for Tech’s banged up secondary. They performed well last week, with freshman safety Cooper Taylor coming up with the now-famous fumble. But he also made a big freshman mistake earlier, where he never turned around and saw the ball on the pass that put FSU within 3. Luckily, we got Dominique Reese back for this game, but we’re still missing senior Jahi Word-Daniels at corner. Expect to see Morgan Burnett (who is Tech’s best defensive back, period) occasionally slide over to corner.
    Where Tech is really hurting is on the offensive line. This unit was already thin, but starting left tackle and captain Andrew Gardner is out for the year after surgery to repair a torn labrum in his shoulder. The only Tech player from my high school, RT David Brown (also a senior), is out for a second consecutive game with a spinal condition. Underclassmen are now starting at RG and RT, and freshman stud Nick Claytor is going to start at LT. They are all capable but also young, and the depth behind them is iffy.
    Anyway, I cannot stress enough how badly Tech needs a win here, especially going into the bye week. The last visit to Chapel Hill was the 7-0 debacle back in 2006 – while we did clinch a Coastal Division title in that game, it also was a clear signal that perhaps all was not well with that 2006 team. At least it was the beginning of the end of Patrick Nix as OC.

12:30: Georgia @ Kentucky (Raycom/Gameplan): UGA was absolute savaged down in Jacksonville last weekend, much to my delight. While I would love Kentucky to do the same, I’m not holding my breath.

1:30: Iowa State @ Colorado (Versus): CU continues their epic march towards a huge showdown with Nebraska to see who will go 6-6, barring any major upsets.

3:30:

  • Alabama @ Louisiana State (CBS): This really should be a night game. The fact that it is not works very much in Bama’s favor. Also in Alabama’s favor is the fact LSU has wilted in their two games against the other two most competent teams in the SEC so far this year, losing by 30 to Florida and 14 to Georgia. I may regret saying this, but looking over LSU’s schedule gives me no realy indication why they are ranked or perceived as highly as they are this season. So I’m picking Alabama.
  • Oklahoma @ Texas Agricultural and Mechanical (ABC/Gameplan): OU hasn’t suffered any apparently ill effects from the Texas game, aside from perhaps a somewhat leaky defense. Is TAMU competent enough to exploit this? Not particularly. OU by a few scores.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Iowa (ESPN/ABC): There has been many a drop of ink and bytes of disk space wasted on why Penn State should not be #3 in the BCS right now. If they’re one of 2 undefeated teams from a BCS conference, then sure, they are deserving. But right now, Texas Tech is, from any measure that I can tell, a better football team. I could probably also make arguments for several 1-loss teams, but still.
  • Clemson @ Florida State (Gameplan/ESPN/ABC): I tried not to want to rant about this but I guess I failed. GT-UNC is the only matchup this week of two ranked ACC teams, and they’re also the highest ranked ACC teams. Nonetheless, ESPN/ABC decided they wanted Notre Dame-Boston College and this game instead. Clemson is 4-4, has no head coach, and will probably miss a bowl, especially if they lose in Tallahassee. Which they probably will.
  • Stanford @ Oregon (FSN): I…I…I have no idea what to make of this game. None. Since it’s at Oregon, I’ll take the Ducks.
  • Marshall @ East Carolina (CBSCS): These teams are actually tied for the lead in the C-USA East division. I watched the UCF-ECU game last Sunday and while ECU won, they didn’t really look good doing it. That said, it’s at ECU and Marshall isn’t exactly setting the world on fire, so Pirates in a close one.

7:00: Kansas State @ Missouri (FSN): Kansas State is coachless and, as much as I hate to say it, things look pretty bad out there. Mizzou can probably name their own score for this one.

8:00:

  • California @ Southern California (ABC/Gameplan): It’s Cal! It’s USC! And I don’t care! I’d rather watch OSU-TTU and since Tech was on Raycom this weekend I went ahead and ordered Gameplan for the weekend. Stupid west coast. Oh, and USC by at least a few scores, unless they’ve spent more time moaning about the BCS this week than, you know, on actually playing football. (Dear USC: Maybe you should’ve beaten Oregon State? And perhaps also you realize that unless OSU loses again they will go to the Rose Bowl instead of y’all?)
  • Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech (Gameplan/ABC): GAME OF THE DAY. Both these teams love scoring points. But Texas Tech has shown not only do they have the usual bombing-it-out passing game they can run the ball, too. Oh, and play defense, though both these teams do that at least somewhat well. In fact, OSU has the stingiest defense in the Big 12, allowing 102 points in 5 games, to TTU’s 138. Sure, that’s over 20 points per game, but when you’re putting up 40-50 PPG it doesn’t really matter if you give up the occasional 24-spot. At any rate, with another crazy night in Lubbock I expect TTU to emerge victorious again, but I also expect a contest as equally dramatic as last week’s.
  • Notre Dame @ Boston College (ESPN): The only common opponent for these two teams is North Carolina, which beat both. BC does lack an embarrassing loss to Pittsburgh, though. In fact, looking at ND’s schedule doesn’t really make me think any of their 5 wins are all that much to write home about. Probably the best team they’ve beaten is Stanford. BC should prevail here.
  • Florida @ Vanderbilt (ESPN2): Do I want Vandy to win? Sure. I like rooting for them, and hey, choas is fun. Do I think they will win? No, not so much. Florida by 10-20 points.
  • Tulane @ Houston (CBSCS): Tulane: At Least We’re Not SMU. Houston rolls.

Anyway, see y’all Sunday for bowl predictions. And if I get around to it, a basketball preview! See ya then.

Bowl Predictions, Week 3

Here ya go. Let’s hit the high points.

  • Yes, I know I have Georgia in the BCS. Right now, I am not sure what will happen to Florida if they lose in the last weekend of the season in the SEC title game and Gerogia wins outs. Of course, since UGA went to the Sugar last year they may want Florida if they can get them anyway.
  • I don’t see an undefeated Alabama or an undefeated Texas Tech getting jumped by Penn State. With TTU’s remaining schedule I think eventually the pollsters will move TTU up, or at the least the gap will close between TTU and Penn State, and with their commanding lead in the computers that will be enough to keep Texas Tech at #2.
  • Fun fact: if Penn State loses to Michigan State (by far the toughest team on their remaining schedule) then Michigan State will go to the Rose Bowl over Ohio State. OSU will still go to a BCS game if they win out, but still.
  • I, like most everyone else, have no idea what to make of the ACC. Last week I had Miami in the EagleBank Bowl and now they’re in the Gator. They could be in Boise next week. Trying to predict this conference sucks, but there are two teams that do control their path to the ACC title game: Maryland and Virginia Tech. Both, however, have plenty of conference games remaining.
  • Georgia Tech does not control its own destiny, though, since both of our/their losses are to ACC opponents in their own division. The one nice thing for Tech (as you can see on the right) is that they only have 2 conference games remaining, so they’ll get into the clubhouse early, as it were.
  • I actually have an extra team this week, Akron! We’ll see if that holds up, though. Of the extra MAC teams, I really have no idea which would be most preferred since they’re all pretty far away from most of bowl games. (I’m surprised more cold-weather cities with domes don’t have bowl games. Detroit has the Motor City Bowl and Toronto has the International Bowl and that’s it. I would think Indianapolis, with a new stadium and central location, would look into a game. Sure beats playing outdoors in Washington, D.C.)
  • If this holds up, I feel sorry for the Independence Bowl. Also, Troy, why you gotta lose to UL-Monroe? Though (somewhat ironically) they probably improve their bowl position this year with a loss (as opposed to last year, where their last game loss cost them a bowl appearance).
  • Somewhat Non-Obvious Matchup of the Week: Gator Bowl, Miami vs. Notre Dame. Maybe if we close our eyes and wish really hard, we can pretend it’s the 1988 version of these two teams. Miami suffered its only loss of the year to the undefeated Irish, 31-30. Okay, yeah, maybe this is pretty obvious but I don’t really see any other interesting non-BCS matchups this week. And Notre Dame will be vastly overpicked here, but they’re Notre Dame and they’ll draw better than Conneciticut, probably.