Been busy as hell this week, not much say. Let’s get started.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong. Also, expect plenty of typos.

Noon:

• Pennsylvania State @ Purdue (ESPN): I still don’t think Notre Dame is a very good football team. Mostly, what does that say about Purdue? Mostly that they don’t really do the “defense” thing very well, having given up 31 points per DI-A game and 38 to Notre Dame. Sure, ND is scoring some points this year, but not at the same clip as Penn State. PSU should handle this one.
• Iowa @ Michigan State (ESPN2): Iowa has lost two straight to the juggernauts known as Pitt and Northwestern. Michigan State is on a roll after an early loss to Cal. What I want to know is: wasn’t the Big Ten network supposed to save us from this crap? MSU rolls.
• Duke @ Georgia Tech (ESPNU): I toyed with starting a separate column to preview the week’s upcoming GT game, since I probably write more analysis about GT than all the other games combined. Anyway, in case you haven’t heard Duke doesn’t completely suck this year. They are coming off a demolition of a very, very terrible Virginia team and have faced this offense before in the Navy game. So what’s to watch here? For the Duke offense, it begins and ends with Thaddeus Lewis. His completion percentage is 61% this year, up from 55% last year, mostly thanks to new head coach David Cuttcliffe. He’s thrown 7 TDs to 2 interceptions, also an improvement over the past two years. And these percentages are not for lack of attempts. Against Navy, he threw the ball 35 times, and against UVA 32 times. Are they the best passing team in the country? No, but they are by the best passing offense we’ve seen this year. Will they run the ball? Not much. Fortunately, Tech’s passing defense is much improved this year (8th, in fact) especially helped by improved secondary play from Jahi Word-Daniels and doubly so by Morgan Burnett, who is rapidly becoming the ballhawk safety we all hoped he’d be. Tech can also use it’s all-ACC defensive line to get pass pressure by rushing 4 men, and is almost certainly the best front 4 Duke has faced all year. If Micheal Johnson is firing on all cylinders for this game, he will use at least 2 blockers by himself. (We’ve talked about MJ in the past on this site. Against Miss State he blocked a FG and got a sack and was just generally all over the field.) As mentioned above, Duke played Navy and may be somewhat more well-prepared than other opponents that will face Tech this year. Also, starting QB Josh Nesbitt will also miss the game due to a hamstring he strained against Miss State. While backup QB Jaybo Shaw is more than capable of running a proficient option offense (as demonstrated two weeks ago), he lacks the raw athleticism of Nesbitt, especially as a passer. Thanks to the bye week, though, several players on both sides of the ball will return. Overall, the attitude on the boards is cautious optimism, and I tend to agree. On the flip said, Vegas says Tech by 12. So I’ll let you draw your own conclusion.
• Indiana @ Minnesota (BTN): Oh, wait, the Big Ten Network exists to show these kind of games. So apparently UMN doesn’t suck this year? I’m still trying to get a handle on that, of course, they also haven’t beaten anyone, but it’s still an improvement over last year’s bunch that lost to North Dakota. Meanwhile, Indiana does have a bad loss to Ball State and took the expected beating from Michigan State. So for the first time in a long time, I’m picking the Golden Gophers.
• Boston College @ North Carolina State (Raycom/Gameplan): NCSU has had a relatively tough schedule so far, but they got absolutely destroyed last week by USF. Meanwhile, BC still hasn’t really, um, played anyone since losing to GT. I’ve seen nothing to make me think NCSU will win another game this year, though, so I’m taking BC.

12:30:

• Oklahoma @ Baylor (FSN): How long will we keep this #1? I’m going to go ahead and say until at least next week. OU should take care of business here, but at least this edition of Baylor has a chance to make it interesting.
• Kansas @ Iowa State (Versus): With all the choas in this great, big, confusing world, it’s nice to know there’s at least one constant, and that’s Iowa State being terrible. Jayhawks roll.
• Florida @ Arkansas (Raycom/Gameplan): Okay, Ole Miss is not exactly lighting the world on fire this year. Unlike Arkansas, though, they’ve at least had a chance to win all their games. Arkansas beat Western Illinois and UL-M by a combined 7 points, and then went on to lose to Alabama and Texas by a combined score of 101-24. Florida gets back on the national title horse with a win here, and I think they’ll come through.

2:30: Stanford @ Notre Dame (NBC): Notre Dame has re-discovered this year that to win football games, you usually need to outscore your opponents. Stanford, meanwhile, hasn’t lost to any obviously inferior opponents, but with the game in South Bend I’ll give the edge to the guys in gold hates and then move on.

3:30:

• Kentucky @ Alabama (CBS): Kentucky had a joke of a non-conference slate and was still about a yard away from suffering a loss to Hail Mary-happy MTSU. They roll into what is (unfortunately) a very re-energized Alabama fan base, and probably into a loss.
• Illinois @ Michigan (ESPN2/ABC): Michigan is an enigma this year. Lose to Utah, barely beat the non-“da U” version of Miami, and then lose to Notre Dame. Oh, and then come out and beat Wisconsin. While I would argue Wisconsin beat themselves, Michigan still had to execute on offense to win, and that’s the first time they’ve really proven they can do so this year. Illinois’s blemishes are much better – losses to Mizzou and Penn State, though they decisively lost both. This is usually where I look up the odds to see what Vegas thinks, and they have no clue – the line is Michigan by 3. I’ll take the Wolverines due to the home field advantage as well, but you never know when one of Zook’s teams will suddenly decide they don’t suck again.
• Texas Tech @ Kansas State (Gameplan/ABC): The Big 12’s back baby, and it’s all a lot more like the Red Raiders than the power rushing attacks of old. (Well, unless you’re OSU.) Whole K-State is the only college football squad that contains any members of my extended family (to my knowledge), I’m gonna have to take the Leach Band O’ Pirates, er, Raiders here.
• Arizona State @ California (ABC/Gameplan): Cal’s back! After losing to Maryland they came back to everyone’s favorite stadium on the Heyward Fault and demolished Colorado State 42-7. Arizona State’s season, meanwhile, is kind of down the tubes after that OT loss to UNLV a few weeks ago, followed by their dismantling by UGA. I’ll take Cal here.
• Florida State @ Miami (Gameplan/ESPN2/ABC): The over/under on this game is a mind-boggling 42. Unless FSU suddenly found a QB and Miami fired Nix, I would definitely take the under here. And Miami, because have you seen FSU this year?
• Southern Methodist @ Central Florida (CBSC): CBS needs to put a little more effort into choosing C-USA games, methinks. I debated even putting this on here, but I get this channel and it is technically a game between DI-A teams. Both of whom are in C-USA and have 2 wins between them. Oh, and O’Leary’s starting to feel the heat at UCF. And SMU still sucks. And…ugh. Do I have to pick someone here? Hold on….it’s heads, SMU wins.

4:00: Navy @ Air Force (Versus): Clash of the service academy titans! The winner here, as with the past several years, pretty much wins the Commander-in-Chief’s trophy. Navy has victories over two BCS conference opponents (even though one of them is Rutgers), while Air Force lost to the only decent team it has played (Utah). I’ll go with the Midshipmen here.

6:00: Auburn @ Vanderbilt (ESPN): It’s Auburn! It’s Vanderbilt! It’s your SEC PRIMETIME GAME OF THE WEEK! Growing up with the Daves I’ve always had a special place in my heart for Vanderbilt football and it’s nice to see they’re making another run at bowl eligiblity after almost getting over the hump in 2005 and 2007. Unfortunately, it looks like the foundation of this year’s edition of the Commodores isn’t built very well. As the linked article points out, Vandy is last in the SEC in several categories except for turnover margin, which pretty much means they’re getting really lucky. So will the luck run out? I have to think, yes, it will. (That said, Vandy still has games against Miss State and Duke and while neither team is a pushover, per se, they should win at least one of the two.)

7:00:

• Texas @ Colorado (FSN): It’s Texas! It’s Colorado! And I don’t care! Longhorns roll, setting up the GAME OF THE YEAR OF THE WEEK next week in Dallas.
• Connecticut @ North Carolina (ESPN2): While I will be rooting for UConn because of one of the best football-player written blogs I’ve ever read, I think UNC will win here.

7:30: Washington @ Arizona (Versus): Arizona is 3-1? When did that happen? Of course, that includes a loss to New Mexico and a win over UCLA, which lends a certain air of unpredictability. The main focus is here is whether either of these coaches will be employed by their teams at the end of the season. I would say it’s worse for Willingham, since no one really expects Arizona to not suck. And I expect it for that to continue.

8:00:

• Ohio State @ Wisconsin (Gameplan/ABC): Wisconsin is still a good football team, but not nearly as good as everyone thought they were after letting Michigan make a huge 4th quarter comeback. Meanwhile, OSU has hit the road to top-10 recovery these past two weeks with methodical victories over Troy and Minnesota. In my mind, the only stumbling block for OSU here is Wisconsin’s massive homefield advantage, which will have had the mjaority of the day to get “prepared” for the game. Playing into this is freshman QB Terrelle Pryor, but he also has a security blanket back in Beanie Wells. I will go ahead and pick OSU here but will not be surprised if Wisconsin prevails.
• Oregon @ Southern California (ABC/Gameplan): I would say USC is back on the trail to the top-10, but they never left. That has to be one of the worst polling mistakes I’ve ever seen. At any rate, back in the safe confines of the coliseum against a team that is desperately running out of QBs they should win this time.
• Rice @ Tulsa (CBSCS): Uh, sure, Rice. Why not?

9:00: Missouri @ Nebraska (ESPN): We’ve all seen the replays over-and-over again from the Nebraska “das boot” game a decade ago. That is a seriously unlucky end zone for Mizzou. Fortunately for them, Nebraska isn’t very good this year. Mizzou and Chase Daniel prevail.

Once again, no stat update. I’ll do it as a separate post after this.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

• Michigan State @ Indiana (ESPN): Get your day started right with…okay, I can’t do this. I can’t really think of any reason to watch this Big Ten snooze-fest. The Hoosiers are coming off a 22-point loss at home to Ball State and counting down the days to basketball season. Meanwhile, MSU is riding high off beating Notre Dame. State by a few scores.
• North Carolina @ Miami (ESPN2): I don’t think “da U” is a very good football team this year. Since the inexplicable hiring of Patrick Nix (thanks guys!), Miami’s offense has just been terrible. But UNC’s hopes for a decent season seem to have derailed by Tyler Yates going down for at least the next few weeks. Expect the usual tight, offense-less ACC battle, with something like a final score of Miami 12, UNC 9.
• Northwestern @ Iowa (ESPN Classic): Fun fact: Northwestern is 4-0! Fun corollary: their BCS conference opponents so far have been Syracuse and Duke. Meanwhile, Iowa got beat by Pitt last week. What I’m saying here is that’s there’s still a terrible lack of data here, but I will say that I have my doubts there will be anything “classic” about this game. I’ll pick NU just for the heck of it.
• Minnesota @ Ohio State (BTN): Thanks, Comcast, for getting a national Big Ten Network feed but no ESPNU. Yeah, that makes a ton of sense. Anyway, Minnesota’s schedule so far is weaker than Northwestern’s, but that said they’re still better than they were last year. Improved enough to avoid getting shellacked by Ohio State? Probably not.
• Maryland @ Clemson (Raycom/Gameplan): See, I figured Maryland was trying to get their coach fired after barely beating Delaware and losing to MTSU. Since then, they’ve beaten Cal and shellacked Eastern Michigan. Clemson, meanwhile, is presumably better than the team that showed up in Atlanta back in August, but they haven’t played anyone since then. That said, on paper Clemson is a much better team than Maryland and it being at Clemson I have to give the purple-and-orange tigers the edge.

12:30:

• Army @ Texas Agricultural and Mechanical (Versus): Alas, poor Army. TAMU by at last four touchdowns.
• Mississippi @ Florida (Raycom/Gameplan): Ole Miss already has two losses (to Wake and Vandy) headed into the Swamp. Uh, yeah. UF by a few scores.

3:30:

• Purdue @ Notre Dame (NBC): Purdue doesn’t really believe in defense. Notre Dame scored 35 against Michigan and then 7 against Michigan State. In other words, I have no idea what will happen here, but I will pick Purdue because I want them to win.
• Tennessee @ Auburn (CBS): Two SEC teams with some issues in offense. That said, looking at this subjectively, Tennessee got the tar beat out of them last week. Auburn hung tough with LSU and certainly had chances to win.
• Fresno State @ California-Los Angeles (ABC/Gameplan): Dear ABC: screw you. I swear to God this weekend is going to make me breakdown and order Gameplan. The two games I actually want to see (Arkansas@Texas, CU@FSU) are not going to be on TV here except for Gameplan. Argh. Also, UCLA’s combined score in their last two games: 90-10. UCLA is the “10”. Fresno gets their BCS win for the year.
• Arkansas @ Texas (Gameplan/ABC): An old SWC rivalry is renewed, well, at least for a year. Arkansas is 21-55 all-time against Texas and the two schools last met in 2003 and 2004. I personally like these old SWC games, though I don’t think the Razorbacks stand much of a chance here.
• Colorado vs. Florida State (@Jacksonville, FL; Gameplan/ESPN/ABC): This game would have been a heck of a lot more relevant in the mid-90’s. Nonetheless, this is the Big 12’s chance to get back at the ACC (along with Nebraska-VPI) after last week’s pasting of TAMU by Miami. Colorado’s signature victory so far is the win over WVU last week, though that doesn’t look that great right now. Nonetheless, FSU lacks any major wins and sports a loss to Wake. I somehow doubt any of FSU’s problems on offense (namely, the lack of a competent quarterback) will have fixed themselves over the past week, so I’ll take the Buffaloes.
• Wisconsin @ Michigan (ESPN/ABC): Michigan is probably one of, if not the worst, team in the Big Ten this year. Badgers by a few scores.
• Houston @ East Colarina (CBSCS): Remember a few years ago, when Houston wasn’t completely terrible? Remember a few weeks ago, when ECU was in the BCS for sure? How quickly things change. I’m still taking ECU here.

7:00: Texas Christian @ Oklahoma (FSN): Dear Comcast Sports Net Bay Area: screw you. Every other FSN/CSN affiliate is showing this national telecast except for you! And unlike the games under control of the Mouse, there’s no alternate way to see this. At any rate, Oklahoma should win.

7:30: Mississippi State @ Louisiana State (ESPN2): I almost started this off with “I know the transitive property doesn’t apply to college football, but“. Then I decided against it. MSU is not very good offensively. They allowed 38 points to us. I don’t know if LSU will score 38, but they will score more than enough to beat MSU.

7:45: Alabama @ Georgia (ESPN): I hate this game. I hate these teams. I, just, ugh. I will watch this game in a state of excited disgust. I have no idea who to root for. There are basically two schools of thought for this situation. Many Tech fans have a motto: “I root for GT and whoever is playing UGA this weekend.” There is a certain kernel of truth. But there is also a school that says, “Yeah, that’s great, but wouldn’t it be fun to cause UGA’s first loss?” Sure. It would be. But I’m not sure I have the patience for that. That said, I grew up an Auburn fan, and I still have no great amount of love for the University of Alabama. Unfortunately, there are no longer ties in college football. Though it pains me, I have to pick UGA to win here.

8:00:

• Virginia Tech @ Nebraska (Gameplan/ABC): Nebraska’s played 3 games, none of which were against any opponent of note. In other words, this is their good OOC game. VPI has won 20-17 two weeks in a row over somewhat decent opposition. However, VPI dominated neither game, needing turnovers and penalties to win both. Nebraska also has the home field advantage here and should be looking to redeem themselves after being embarrassed by USC last year in primetime. Since VPI currently has the inside track for their division of the ACC, they’re pretty much playing for rankings and conference pride (especially as the ACC continues to try to rehabilitate their image after a dreadful opening weekend). All that said, I have to go with the ‘Huskers here. VPI is just way too inconsistent on offense with either QB (and Taylor got hurt last week at UNC) to pull this one off, I think.
• Illinois @ Pennsylvania State (ABC/Gameplan): I really don’t want to watch this game, but ABC somehow deemed a Big Ten tilt was worth of attention here on the West Coast. Oh well. What Illinois has done to continue to be ranked baffles me. With the game in Happy Valley at night PSU has a massive edge here, in my opinion.
• Central Florida @ Texas-El Paso (CBSCS): Of all the C-USA games to put on TV, I’m not sure the one with two teams of a combined 1-5 record was really the right choice. There’s been some controversy around UCF as of late (though I’m too lazy/tired to link it), but at least both of UCF’s losses are to BCS teams so I’m going to pick them and go to bed.

Welcome to week four of the college football season! Only 11 more to go!

For anyone happening on this from Facebook, this is pretty much what I do here. Each of the following is a game featuring at least one DI-A team from a BCS conference on national television, with additional exceptions for games that are interesting but only on regionally (read: the Raycom ACC and SEC “Games of the Week”). My idea of national is mostly based on what Comcast carries because that is what I currently have – so you’ll see the national Big Ten Network game of the week but not the ESNPU game unless I want to talk about it.

As usual, all times are Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

• East Carolina @ North Carolina State (ESPN): NCSU has scored 9 offensive points against DI-A teams this year, losing in blowouts to South Carolina and Clemson. Granted, those were both on the road, but I’ve seen nothing to make me thing that NCSU has any idea what they’re doing. Meanwhile, the Pirates needed a touchdown in the last two minutes to beat lowly Tulane, though that was their first road game of the year. I’m looking for ECU to win, though it may be closer than many think.
• Iowa @ Pittsburgh (ESPN2): If this weren’t on an ESPN, I wouldn’t write about it. I can’t think of anything positive to say about either team. Iowa is 3-0, but all three teams are decidedly worse than them (Maine, FIU, and Iowa St.). Pitt, meanwhile, lost to Bowling Green and hasn’t played for two weeks since beating Buffalo. (Which I don’t think I’ve seen before – a two week break, that is.) I hate to pick another road team here, but I’ll go with Iowa so at least I can be mildly interested in this game.
• Troy @ Ohio State (BTN): Do I want Troy to win? Yes. Do I think they will? No.
• Mississippi State @ Georgia Tech (Raycom/Gameplan): This is an intriguing matchup for the Jackets. And not because of conference pride. Miss St. is terrible offensively (see the 3-2 debacle last weekend), and the Jackets had 3 fumbles last week in Blacksburg. Outside of just the fumbles, though, there is plenty of room of improvement for the Jackets. In what I suspect may be an issue all year, the middle of the offensive line has to get better blocks coming off the snap – with as often as VPI was in the backfield, it’s surprising there weren’t more fumbles lost. I say this because GT never established the first option in the triple option – the dive up the middle. B-back Dwyer had 10 carries for only 28 yards as VPI stacked the the middle-of-the-line. The other Tech then sold out on the 2nd option, the pitch-man on the outside. The result? A very banged up Josh Nesbitt, who ran 28 times for 151 yards. 5.4 yards per carry is nice, of course, but you don’t really want your QB getting banged up like that, and he is also prone to fumbling the ball. The good news for GT is that their best WR is back, which opens up the downfield pass even more. Anyway, I’ll be up early for this one.

12:30: Alabama @ Arkansas (Raycom/Gameplan): Alabama is 3-0! Which makes me very glad I’m not there last now, because I’m sure the press and fans are insufferable. We’ll ignore that they have 1 legit victory out of that (Clemson). Of course, we know about as much about Arkansas. Well, except that they needed last minute touchdowns to beat both DI-AA Western Illinois and annual DI-A punching bag UL-Monroe. I will reluctantly go with ‘Bama here.

3:00: Arizona @ California-Los Angeles (FSN): Yeah, I picked UCLA last week. Then they got shut out and embarrassed by the Stormin’ Mormons. Luckily for UCLA, this game is in, well, LA and against annual Pac-10 doormat Arizona, who has already lost to decidedly-worse-than-BYU New Mexico. Goin’ with Slick Rick and the Baby Blues here.

3:30:

• Florida @ Tennessee (CBS): SEC East football! Woo! Tennessee is looking to restore its reputation as the loss to UCLA now looks kind of bad. Florida, meanwhile, just got Percy Harvin back, this restoring the other 1/3 of Florida’s offense that isn’t Tim Tebow. Florida’s defensive secondary is still suspect, but so is Tennessee’s quarterback. Since Tebow plays for the Gators, I give them a slight edge on the road.
• Notre Dame @ Michigan State (ABC/ESPN): Michigan losing to ND says a lot more about Michigan than Notre Dame. Michigan State should win, but I’ll hesitate on calling for the rout. Unfortunately, the is the ABC national game for everyone who not on the Atlantic seaboard, the Southeast, and the area East of New Mexico and south of Missouri. Except for Orlando, FL. Let’s just move on.
• Miami @ Texas Agricultural and Mechanical (ABC/Gameplan): Ugh. Both these teams are terrible. I think TAMU is worse, mostly due to losing to Arkansas State. At home. I expect a repeat of last year’s 34-17 romp by Miami.
• Virginia Tech @ North Carolina (ABC/ESPN/Gameplan): This is a game that a lot of people are saying will be closer than people think. Heck, Vegas even has the Hokies as an underdog, though it’s only by 3 (essentially, they’re saying they have no clue). I guess the perception among most is that VPI is a favorite anyway. If were betting on this game, I wouldn’t take UNC and the 3, that’s for sure. I’ll even go ahead and pick VPI straight-up. Tyrod Taylor looked good enough against GT last week, and all the UNC-Rutgers game told me was that Rutgers isn’t good anymore. Speaking of whom…
• Rutgers @ Navy (CBS College Sports):

4:00: Utah @ Air Force (Versus): Both are 3-0, but Air Force’s 3-0 is against a couple very bad teams. The Utes, meanwhile, have victories over Michigan and, for what it’s worth, UNLV. I’ll go with them.

7:00:

• Wake Forest @ Florida State (ESPN2): I have no idea what the line is and I’m too tired to look it up. What do I know is that if FSU is favored the oddsmakers are crazy. FSU’s offense is just terrible.
• Rice @ Texas (FSN): Finally, I can pick a home team to win! Old SWC foes face off for the 6th straight time. The last time Rice beat Texas was in 1994, when the SWC still existed. The last time Rice had consecutive victories over the Longhorns was in 1953 and 1954. Ouch.
• Ball State @ Indiana (BTN): I don’t have anything constructive to say about this game. Indiana should win.

7:45: Louisiana State @ Auburn (ESPN): Auburn will score more than 3 points in this game. However, I haven’t seen anything to make me thing they will be able to score enough. Tentatively picking LSU.

8:00:

• Georgia @ Arizona State (ABC): Though it’d be almost everything I’d ever want or hope for, I can’t pick ASU here.
• Texas Christian @ Southern Methodist (CBS College Sports): TCU wins.