This Weekend in College Football: Week 11

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Mississippi @ Tennessee (CBS): It’s a battle for SEC East vs. West supremacy! Well, supremacy for the worst team in the conference, at least. These two teams are a combined 1-9 in SEC play. The winner has a decidedly better shot at getting to a bowl, as Tennessee needs to win out to make it to 6-6, and it’s only worth mentioning that because the other two opponents are Kentucky and Vanderbilt. Ole Miss has a harder road and would have to upset LSU or Miss State. Anyway, I’ll take Tennessee here, for no apparent reason. I mean, you would at least think that if CBS was going to use one of their finite numbers of double headers they’d at least pick two teams with winning records, like, say, Alabama-Miss State or South Carolina-Florida.
  • Iowa @ Northwestern (ESPN): It would sure be easier to figure out who’s going to win the Big Ten if Iowa would just drop a game or two. Probably won’t happen here though.
  • Indiana @ Wisconsin (ESPN2): Indiana is 4-0 in OOC play and oh-fer in Big Ten play. I suspect this trend will continue. (Wow, what a dreadful set of noon games so far. And frankly it’s not getting much better.)
  • South Florida @ Louisville (ESPNU): Who wants to win the Big East? I mean, seriously. No one has stepped up so far. Both these teams are 2-2 in conference and are certainly as likely as anyone else to win the damn thing at this point. I like USF better overall, and plus they play Pitt next week, so hey, it could happen.
  • Southern Mississippi @ Central Florida (CBSCS): UCF has simply been the class of Conference USA this year. 5-0 in conference play and 7-2 overall (featuring close losses to NCSU and Kansas State), UCF has shown an ability to take care of business against the dregs of the conference and outpace the other good teams. Overtime loss to UAB notwithstanding, USM is one of C-USA’s better teams but it would be difficult to pick against UCF at this point.
  • Michigan @ Purdue (BTN): Michigan has gotten bowl eligible after last week’s triple overtime thriller, which is good because both of the last two games they could win without it really being termed a “massive upset” were not slam dunks. That scenario is here again this week, as the Boilermakers don’t really have an answer for the Big Ten’s other good offenses but have scored enough against bad defenses. That said, Purdue is down to, like, its sixth string QB and is looking for answers at this point to make a desperate thrust at bowl eligibility (with a game remaining against Indiana, this isn’t impossible, either). I have to go with Michigan here.
  • Vanderbilt @ Kentucky (SEC): This has been a lost season for the Commodores, which aren’t exactly used to winning football or anything but they haven’t really even being doing that “keep it close in the first half and then fade away in the second half” thing that they were known for in the past either. Wildcats should win easily.
  • Miami @ Georgia Tech (ACC): It’s the battle of the backup quarterbacks! Stephen Morris went 18/30 and threw a TD, but he still continued Jacory Harris’s legacy of interceptions by throwing two picks. Nonetheless, that TD was the game winner with 37 seconds to go, so that’s some poise as well. Tevin Washington will be the starter for GT, and after spending most of his first few drives getting used to game speed he led GT on the tying scoring drive late in the fourth quarter, and very nearly did it again at the end of regulation before throwing the game ending interception. Nonetheless, the future is now in Atlanta, and it should be fun to watch.
    On another note, Georgia Tech will be be celebrating the 20th anniversary of its national title at the game, including appearances from as many members of the team as they could find and Bobby Ross himself. I had hoped at the beginning of the year that this game would also be a wonderful chance to clinch the Coastal coming off an early November upset in Virginia (paralleling the way Tech beating then #1 Virginia in Charlottesville propelled them, ultimately, to the national title). Suffice it to say, that didn’t quite happen. Still plenty to play for, though, and hopefully we make the most of it.

12:30: Kansas State @ Missouri (FSN): So are the wheels coming off for Mizzou? Losing to Nebraska is one thing, but losing to a moribund-at-best Texas Tech team is inexplicable. So now we have a matchup of two teams that I’m not quite sure what to make of. For now, I’ll say that the wheels aren’t coming off, but they’re definitely getting kind of wobbly.

2:30: Utah @ Notre Dame (NBC): Sure, Utah got ground into a pulp at home against their conference rivals. But they’re probably still better than Notre Dame at this point/

3:30:

  • Georgia @ Auburn (CBS): Okay, against this edition of UGA Auburn should win either way. I don’t really know what to make of the Cam Newton scandal at this point but in a lot of ways, I’m almost tempted to say that as long as they think they can avoid major sanctions for doing so (other than what they already would face) they should just play him and hope everything works out. You’ve already played 10 games, so there’s not really any turning back now, is there?
  • Pennsylvania State @ Ohio State (ABC/ESPN): I think the Buckeyes should roll here, honestly. With the Penn State quarterback situation far from solid, the usual Buckeye defense should be able to do its thing as long as the offense can hold up its end of the bargain, as it has in two post-Wisconsin beatdowns put on Purdue and Minnesota.
  • Texas Tech @ Oklahoma (ABC): OU just looked all out of sorts last week against Texas Tech, in what turned out to be an extremely chaotic weekend in the Big 12. Since I’m not sure what to make of this, I’ll take the easy way out and go with trends. OU hasn’t lost a home game since 2005 and has won 6 straight against TTU at home. So there you go.
  • Virginia Tech @ North Carolina (ABC/ESPN): If Butch Davis weren’t likely to get fired for the scandal, he probably deserves Coach of the Year for what he’s done with a depleted defense and a questionable offense. They pulled off an upset against former ACC frontrunner FSU last weekend, but I don’t think they’ll be able to do it again to the Hokies.
  • Syracuse @ Rutgers (ESPNU): Both these teams can still win the Big East! (Hint: that applies to any Big East team right now.) That said, despite the luster coming off the Orange’s season somewhat I still like them over Rutgers.
  • Central Michigan @ Navy (CBSCS): Central Michigan is pretty awful this year. Navy shouldn’t have many issues.

4:00: San Diego State @ Texas Christian (Versus): SDSU is 7-2 and their head coach may find himself at another job very soon due to his quick resurrection of a team that was routinely one of the worst in football. Despite that, unless TCU has gotten too fat and happy off its beatdown of Utah last week I expect a similar performance here.

7:00:

  • Texas Agricultural and Mechanical @ Baylor (FSN): Screw logic and reason, I still like Baylor here.
  • Texas-El Paso @ Arkansas (ESPNU): UTEP may be one of the most maddeningly difficult teams in college football to quantify (along with Cal) but it shouldn’t be an issue here, unless the Razorbacks are caught looking forward two weeks to the LSU game.

7:15:

  • South Carolina @ Florida (ESPN): Spurrier’s back, but that hasn’t really worked out well for him in any of the past few seasons. In general, the back end of the SEC schedule hasn’t been kind to the Visor since his return. The question here is, is Florida’s rejuvenated offense enough to overcome one of the best defenses in the SEC (despite the 41-20 loss last week)? That said, the main problem last week is that South Carolina came up flat and didn’t do anything on offense despite having the human personification of a freight train at running back. I don’t think they will again here, but I also think Florida will win anyway.
  • Mississippi State @ Alabama (ESPN2): This another matchup of an interesting offense against a high-flying defense. But there’s a lot less uncertainty here for me. Bama should win.

7:30: Oregon @ California (Versus): Right on schedule, it’s time for Cal to lose again. It may get ugly against the nation’s best offense, though.

8:00:

  • Southern California @ Arizona (ABC): Arizona is ranked for three reasons: they only have two losses, those losses were to teams that were ranked, and they have a good win over Iowa. That’s it. Don’t get me wrong, I still think they’ll beat USC, but I won’t exactly be shocked if they lose.
  • Clemson @ Florida State (ABC): Did someone at ABC forget that there are no Bowdens in the this matchup anymore? That’s the only explanation I have for this one. FSU should win though.
  • Oklahoma State @ Texas (ABC): Okay, it doesn’t exactly look like Texas will remember “hey wait, almost everyone one our roster would start at almost every other school in the country” but hey, it could happen. But it probably won’t. What’s supposed to be appealing about any of these ABC 8:00 PM games again?
  • Tulsa @ Houston (CBSCS): Houston has coped well with the early loss of their all-everything QB. Better than I thought they would, actually. Also, I hope you like points, because this game is going to feature a lot of them. That said, I like Tulsa in the end simply because they can run and pass the football.

10:30: Nevada @ Fresno State (ESPNU): It’s the battle of “the other two respectable teams in the WAC”! Actually, this is probably worth watching, if for no other reason than because this is probably more interesting than the inevitable pummeling they’ll take when they play Boise. I concede that it is possible for Nevada to put a similar pummeling on Fresno, though. That said, I think this will be a close, high scoring affair, perfect for wrapping up a long day of college football. Nevada should win, though.

This Week in College Football: Week 11

For the last month of the season, in addition to the usual weekly column we’ll also examine the Tuesday through Friday action as well.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Tuesday

7:00: Toledo @ Northern Illinois (ESPN2): Are you ready for some MACtion? This game will determine the winner of the MAC West! If that’s not going to get you excited about MAC football then I’m not sure what will. Anyway, I like NIU here.

Wednesday

8:00: Miami @ Bowling Green (ESPN2): This game is not for similar stakes, unfortunately. After getting creamed in out-of-conference play, Miami (the one in Ohio) has recovered to run it up to 4-1 in the MAC, which ties them in the loss column with the other MAC East frontrunners. Bowling Green, however, is not so hot, at 2-7 on the year. I like Miami here.

Thursday

7:30: Pittsburgh @ Connecticut (ESPN): Anyone have any idea of what’s going in the Big East? I sure don’t. Pitt is the only undefeated team in conference play but they’ve also only played three conference games. For the sake of my sanity, I’m taking Pitt.

8:00: East Carolina @ Alabama-Birmingham (CBSCS): Of UAB’s three wins this year, two of them have been by one point. ECU has taken care of most of their C-USA brethren by larger margins than that, but, well, they did lose 76-35 last week to Navy. (Fun fact: Navy had only 32 yards more total offense, for a total of 596 yards, but Navy finished with a +3 turnover ratio.) Nonetheless, I’ll still taking the Pirates.

Friday

6:00: Ball State @ Buffalo (ESPNU): Yes, that’s right kids, more MACtion! This time, though, the teams involved are a combined 5-14 on the year. So, um, I can’t really recommend this one. Total guess: Buffalo.

9:00: Boise State @ Idaho (ESPN2): Hey, anyone remember this whole thing from back in July? So you can bet they’ll be especially “nasty and inebriated” up in the Kibbie Dome this year. (Also known as the Cowan Spectrum if there’s a basketball court in it.) Idaho’s unique dome may be the single best reason to tune into this, other than to witness Boise’s impending demolition of them in the same manner you’re not supposed to rubberneck when driving by a car accident.

As usual, the weekend column will probably go up at some absurd hour on Saturday. Until then, enjoy the MACtion!

Bowl Predictions 2010: Week 4

As usual, the predictions are right over here. Let’s do this.

  • Oregon and Auburn control their destinies. I had multiple people ask me Saturday if TCU had any chance of passing either of them, and while TCU got close this week after shellacking Utah, the answer is “no”. TCU plays a decent San Diego State team Saturday, but after that their only remaining game is in two weeks against a New Mexico outfit that is, by virtue of a turnover fueled win over Wyoming last weekend, probably only the second worst team in the country. That will hurt their SoS a bit. Honestly, what might happen is Auburn and Oregon switch places in the polls again, but either way TCU will be on the outside looking in. Unless one of them loses. 

    It’s all part of the plan….
  • If Oregon loses, I would say it’s pretty certain TCU will get a shot. However, I agree with ESPN’s Brad Edwards that a 1-loss SEC champion Auburn team could very well vault its way back up into the top two. Auburn is currently #1 in all but 1 computer poll (and the highest and lowest polls are thrown out by the BCS), so a loss to, say, Alabama and then a title game win over Florida or South Carolina would probably get good enough to keep them at around #2 in the computers. If the humans, say, put them back up at #3, they could very well get in. At this point, I don’t think any other 1-loss teams have a shot, except for maybe LSU. (If Auburn loses Saturday to Georgia, I will go ahead and project LSU into the title game. There would be no other explanation for why Auburn would lose to UGA other than to set up LSU to win the SEC and vault its way into the BCS title game. Just no other reason.)
  • Right now, I think Wisconsin has the easiest path to the Big Ten title, so I’m projecting them into the Rose. However, Ohio State has a good shot of being rewarded with a BCS berth provided they win out. In the Big 12, I’m now projecting Oklahoma State to win the conference. Note that’s highly subject to change pretty much whenever.
  • Whither Boise State? They could very well be 12-0, no lower than #4 in the any of the polls the entire year, and be shut out of the BCS entirely. Only the top ranked non-automatic qualifying conference team is rewarded with an automatic bid to the BCS, so right now that looks like TCU. (Said team also gets a Rose Bowl bid if Oregon wins out.) Right now I think Boise is still in, but other folks doing this sort of thing have projected them out. But how bad will it look when a team they beat (Virginia Tech) is in a BCS bowl and they aren’t? Also, if I’m the Fiesta Bowl, I have to think that Boise is probably going to travel better than Stanford.
  • I actually had a glut of qualifying teams this week, as you can see by the extra MAC and C-USA teams I have sitting around at the bottom. Thanks the NCAA scrapping the “winning records must be picked first” rule, a 6-6 Iowa State will almost certainly get an at-large bid before an 8-4 Toledo team.
  • Some other notes: I could easily swap a few teams around here, like NC State and Florida State, for instance. Army, with a win over Kent State this weekend, could clink their first bowl berth since 1996. I hated to send Miami out to the Sun Bowl, but, well, someone’s got to go and I was running out of ACC teams to get picked in front of them. I still think Texas will make a bowl, just not a good one. Yes, Notre Dame’s not in. Hard to see them getting to 6-6 with games against Utah and USC left. And finally, I have no idea what the C-USA pecking order is. Those are almost guesses other than that I am desperately trying to avoid sending Southern Miss to the New Orleans Bowl yet again.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 10

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Illinois @ Michigan (ESPN): I was all set to instinctively pick Michigan but then I remembered that Michigan just lost to a not-very-good Penn State and that Illinois is 3-2 in the Big Ten to Michigan’s 1-3. So, uh, yeah.
  • Maryland @ Miami (ESPNU): Meanwhile, yes, I know Maryland is 3-1 and 6-2 overall and that Miami is missing Jacory Harris. Nonetheless, Maryland has had trouble scoring against teams that aren’t “Morgan State” or “Wake Forset” so I still like the Canes here. I’m not terribly confident about it though.
  • Air Force @ Army (CBSCS): Army’s better this year, but Air Force remains the obvious choice. A win here clinches their first Commander-in-Chief’s trophy since 2002, which is also the last time someone other than Navy won it.
  • Wisconsin @ Purdue (BTN): Wisconsin.
  • Florida @ Vanderbilt (SEC): Florida.
  • North Carolina State @ Clemson (ACC): So after a potentially season-defining win over their biggest ACC rival (us), Clemson went out and lost to the worst offense in the conference 16-10. Screw them. I hope NCSU beats them by like 5 touchdowns. They’re also missing Andre Ellington, so they may do well to score more than 10 points, which is somehow all they scored against Boston College.

12:30: Baylor @ Oklahoma State (FSN): The winner of this game will help simplify the Big 12 South race, as each of them then end their seasons against the South’s other 1-loss team, Oklahoma. Of course, OSU is one of, if not the best, teams that Baylor has played since TCU. With the slight homefield edge, I have to give the edge to OSU.

3:30:

  • Texas Christian @ Utah (CBSCS): I am listing this game first. First off, until the Iron Bowl, it is likely to be the only matchup of two top-5 teams this season. Secondly, it deserves your attention for the all reasons spelled out by someone more coherent than I am right now. If you have Time Warner, Charter, or Dish you’ll even be getting CBS College Sports for free. I know I’ll be watching. That said, I also really like TCU’s chances to prevail. They’ve faced tougher opposition than Utah, and in addition to the pummelling they hand out on offense they also play defense of a caliber Utah hasn’t seen all season.
  • Alabama @ Louisiana State (CBS): This is the game most of you will be watching. However, without the Baton Rouge night game mojo, I’m not sure Les Miles and his hat can prevail over Nick Saban and co. Bama should win.
  • Washington @ Oregon (ABC/ESPN2): The ABC and ESPN2 coverage maps are somewhat complicated this week, so I’ve linked them. At any rate, much like water on an actual duck, Oregon should roll.
  • Northwestern @ Pennsylvania State (ABC/ESPN2): Picking Penn State after they beat two of the worse outfits in the Big Ten by 10 points? Sure, why not.
  • Nebraska @ Iowa State (ABC): Nebraska, unless they manage to commit nine turnovers again. (I still can’t figure out how that happened last year.)
  • North Carolina @ Florida State (ABC): I suspect the ACC Chaos Machine will actually ensure that UNC wins this somehow, but in reality FSU should have this one. I think I said that last week, too. (Last weekend was a prime example of why every column starts with “all predictions wrong”. It’s not just a slogan, sometimes, it’s a way of life.)
  • Hawaii @ Boise State (ESPNU): Boise might only beat Hawaii by 20 instead of the customary 30 or 40. Either way, the only way they’re getting back to 3rd in the BCS is if Utah wins, and even then, maybe.

7:00:

  • Arkansas @ South Carolina (ESPN): The Visor remains the last, best hope for a team with less than 3-losses to win the SEC East. I think they can manage it and face Florida next weekend for the SEC East title.
  • Oklahoma @ Texas Agricultural and Mechanical (FSN): How is TAMU 5-3 and you ask? Well, let’s review those five wins: Stephen F. Austin, Louisiana Tech, Florida International, Kansas, and Texas Tech. Assuming Texas “gets its **** mind rite”, as they might say in Coral Gables, TAMU could well finish 5-7. They’ll at least go to 5-4 here.
  • Oregon State @ California-Los Angeles (Versus): UCLA managed to lose to Arizona by a respectable one-score margin. It may be respectable, but they should probably lose to the Beavers too.
  • Louisiana-Lafayette @ Mississippi (ESPNU): Well, um, huh. This game is on TV. Well then. Ole Miss.

8:00:

  • Arizona @ Stanford (ABC): Stanford is the best top-15 team you’re not hearing anything about. Then again, that’s probably because other than their single loss to Oregon, they haven’t really played anyone and their best victory to date is probably a 2-point squeaker over USC at home. Arizona meanwhile at least managed to beat Iowa though they also lost to Oregon State. Nonetheless, it’s hard not to like the numbers Stanford’s offense puts up that would look even more ridiculous if they didn’t share a conference with Oregon. I’ll take the Cardinal.
  • Missouri @ Texas Tech (ABC): Texas Tech has the ultimate 6-6 schedule. They will contribute further to that by losing to Mizzou, who made me look terrible last weekend but oh well. See my earlier disclaimer in the UNC-FSU game.
  • Texas @ Kansas State (ESPN2): By all rights, Texas should win this game. Kansas State isn’t particularly good or anything and their high flying offense lost with a relatively low-key 14 points to Oklahoma State. And hell, perhaps being in Manhattan will help with them with the Iowa State (?!) and Baylor (!!!) loses being in Austin. I don’t know anymore. I’m picking Texas out habit, shock, and disbelief, not out of logic and reason.
  • Tennessee @ Memphis (CBSCS): Tennessee helps boost Memphis’s home attendance numbers and gets a win in the process. Everybody wins! Well, except for the Memphis football team, but only in terms of literal wins and losses.

10:30: Arizona State @ Southern Cal (FSN): For those of you on the East Coast, this game may have two 1 AMs for you! For everyone else, it should be a classic high flyin’ Pac-10 late night shootout and a good way to wrap up the day. Well, unless you’re unlike me and have better things to do on Saturday nights. Either way, ASU should probably win.

Bowl Predictions 2010: Week 3

Better late than never, here’s this week’s bowl predictions. They’ve actually been up for awhile, so let’s see if I can remember what I was planning on writing.

  • Auburn and Oregon continue to control their own destiny. The only thing #1 really gets is the first dibs on uniforms, which is probably a bigger deal to Oregon than it is to Auburn. Either way, as long as neither loses, they’re in good shape.
  • Now, if they do lose, well, a lot more variables come into play. If Oregon loses, then no one really is sure what will happen. If Auburn loses, it depends on who they lose to. If they lose to Alabama the general consensus is that such a win plus the SEC title would propel a 1-loss Crimson Tide to the title game.
  • In terms of TCU/Utah and Boise, there’s actually a chance one of them could be left out even if both finish in the top 5. Only the higher ranked of the two will get the auto-bid (likely to the Rose Bowl unless Oregon loses). The other will be at the mercy of the BCS at-large process. I don’t think the BCS bowls really want to risk the outrage if, say, a #4 Boise State is left out in the cold, but it could happen. (It has before.)
  • In other news, I still have no idea who is going to win the Big 12. This week’s guess is Oklahoma over Nebraska in the Big 12 title game, allowing Mizzou to get a BCS berth. Note that this berth could also go to a Big Ten at-large, like, say, Michigan State.
  • You may be interested to know that I have Michigan and Texas playing each other in the Texas Bowl.
  • I have one extra team this week, but it’s still kind of dicey. It mostly depends on how the mid-majors shake out, and at this point in the season I still don’t really have enough data to comb through and figure out which of those teams will reach the 6-win threshold. (See, for instance, the Sun Belt, where many teams enter conference play below .500 but then gradually claw their way up to 6-6.) As the season goes on, this gets much easier though.
  • Florida and GT in the Music City Bowl? I don’t care that they lost to Mississippi State and can’t offense their way out of a paper bag, I’d still say we’re like a three touchdown underdog.
  • Also, Hawaii is indeed the first confirmed team in a bowl game.