Last weekend, the CFP posted a dismal 38-17 record, lowering the year-to-date percentage to 74.8%. Many of the mispredicted games had margins over ten points. However, the CFP did manage to correctly pick Kentucky over Georgia.

This weekend, some repeat offenders have a chance at redemption. Michigan State, Clemson, Arkansas, Maryland, and Texas A&M have all tripped up the CFP, some more than once. Other teams, like Air Force and Florida State, seem doomed to fail once more. Those two were picked to beat Notre Dame and Wake Forest, respectively. Six teams are favored by ratings margins greater than sixteen points, the most gimmees I’ve had so far this season; Virginia Tech, Penn State, Washington, Nevada, Boston College, and Hawaii are all but guaranteed victories over their opponents.

Well, that’s all I have for this week’s CFP report. You can read the rest of this week’s predictions at http://tito.asimweb.org/cfp/week11.html.

West Virginia University – 6 turnovers in an ugly loss to Louisville? You’re fast, but you have to play better than that to be #3.
Clemson University – Lost 2 straight to teams that GT has beaten – after they owned GT. More proof that the Transitive Property of Football is not true.
University of Iowa – You lost to North-freakin’-Western. Not just perennially overrated, now just plain bad.
University[sic] of Georgia – You lost to Kentucky! Wooooooo!
Wake Forest University – WF and GT are on a collision course for the ACC Championship Game – aka John Swofford’s Nightmare. Just a little pre-emptive taunting to psyche them out 😉
Duke University – Now that basketball has started, no one in Durham has to watch this putrid team.
Guy Who Broke JoePa’s Leg – In the Wisconsin-Penn State game, JoePa got hit when someone went flying onto the sideline. JoePa stayed around for a quarter before being carted off with a broken tibia. Hardcore for an old dude.
University of North Carolina – Repeat what I said about Duke, but replace Durham with Chapel Hill. You and Duke are next up on the GT hit parade.

Well kids, I’m in Nashville this weekend and will probably miss most of today’s games. But just for my readers (all two of you), here’s this week’s line up as though I were on Georgia Tech’s campus:

Noon:

• Missouri @ Nebraska (ABC): Winner gets to lose to Texas in the Big 12 title game!
• UVA @ FSU (local ACC): Honestly, FSU has only gotten worse this season, while UVA has gotten better. Still, though, I’ve seen no evidence that UVA’s quarterback can complete a pass to anyone, or that any of his receivers can catch a pass. So I like FSU here.
• Ball St. @ UMich (ESPNU): I can’t come up with anything that explains why this game is being televised anywhere besides ESPN’s deal with the Big Ten.
• Maryland @ Clemson (ESPN2): UMD needs a win in Death Valley to stay alive in their division’s race. The odds of them getting said win, however, do not seem high.
• Baylor @ Texas Tech (FSN): Baylor’s halfway decent again this year, thus continuing to cement their status as the Vandy of the Big 12 instead of the Duke of the Big 12.

12:30 – Florida @ Vanderbilt (local SEC): Go ‘Dores, but UF rolls.

2:30 – UNC @ ND (NBC): Notre Dame seeks to go 2-0 against the ACC this year….

3:30:

• Washington @ Oregon (TBS): Washington needs the win to try to get to a bowl, but the Ducks need it to stay alive in the Pac-10.
• LSU @ Tennessee (CBS): Game of the week right here, or it would be, if anything was actually riding on it. A LSU win here gives Florida some breathing room in the East, and a UT win gives LSU 3 conference losses.
• Purdue @ Michigan St (ESPNU): Well, since John L. Smith has already been fired, you can’t really watch him try to get fired anymore. Can MSU rally behind their soon-to-be-departed coach? I wouldn’t bet on it.
• Ohio St. @ Illinois (ESPN2): The non-hit parade continues! Can’t OSU and Michigan just play and get it done with? Sheesh.
• Kansas St. @ Colorado (FSN): Why?!? In a way, I picked a good weekend to not watch games.

7:00:

• Oklahoma St. @ Texas (TBS): Man, TBS had a full-slate of games today! Too bad they all suck.
• Georgia Tech @ NC State (ESPNU): Well, I’d watch this if I could, but oh well. I’m somewhat nervous about this – NCSU needs to win in order to have a chance at a bowl game, and I think the best thing Tech could do is sweep their last four games. Hopefully GT is focused and comes out ready to play after the huge win against Miami last week. If GT can win this game….yeah.
• Boston College @ Wake Forest (ESPN2): Probably the game with the most conference champion implications of the day. Yes, that’s right folks, BC@WFU is probably the most important game of the day. (Don’t worry, I also struggle with this notion.) Provided UMD loses to FSU, the winner of this game is in the ACC Atlantic driver’s seat. I have to like BC here – Wake Forest is a good team, but they just have played anyone at all except for Clemson. (In fairness, WFU played Clemson a heck of a lot closer than we did. But they still lost.)
• USC @ Stanford (FSN): OH GOD WHY!?!?!?!?!!?!?!?!?!?!?!? Stanford isn’t just bad, they’re horrible. The closest they’ve come this year was a 1 point loss to San Jose St. They haven’t been within a touchdown of any of their other opponents. Is USC down? Sure. But Stanford is beyond down. Duke could probably beat them by a couple of scores, though of course Duke lost to a DI-AA team. Still, though, someone should figure out a way to those teams to play each other….

7:45 – Arkansas @ South Carolina (ESPN): Well, Auburn desperately wants a USC victory here, which could set up a course for Arkansas to lose to either Tennessee, LSU, or both. However, Arkansas only has 1 other road game after this- @Miss. St.

8:00 – VPI @ Miami (ABC): Well, this game isn’t nearly as big of a deal as it used to be. I don’t know who to go for here – unless both teams lose, a loss doesn’t really help Tech since we beat both of them. Miami has the best chance to lose again after this, so I guess if they win it helps. Oh well.

That’s all I got folks. It’s unlikely the bowl predictions will be posted this weekend – I’d guess Tuesday at the earliest. Later.

Many people (actually, just Elliott) were severely disappointed that this week’s sermon did not hit the blogosphere on its normal schedule. As usual, I have a few excuses for my tardiness. I spent the entire weekend with my girlfriend Laura at Michigan State University, and I definitely wasn’t going to post my thoughts there. When I got back to Auburn, I had a ton of work (one project) to catch up on before Tuesday’s class.

Because I wanted to spend time with Laura, I didn’t watch many games this weekend. I did see Indiana’s 46-21 (let’s just admit it: 46-7) trouncing of Michigan State. The Spartans recently announced the end of the Smith era, which is understandable, considering his season-ending performances the past few years. I also got to watch the last five minutes of Oregon State’s “upset” of USC. Laura and I were eating dinner with some of her friends during the second half, so I had to leave the table a few times to check the score online.

Like I predicted, USC did not going to go undefeated this season. Still, who would have guessed that their first loss would come so early? Here’s hoping one or two (or three) of California, Oregon, and Notre Dame will deliver another loss to the Trojans. Vanderbilt-ed Georgia, another early loser, is still on track to make me look like a genius (or Captain Obvious). The Bulldogs lost a dogfight (literally: think “Smokey vs. Ugga”) against Tennessee and a Florida game that was not as close as the final score. Now, Georgia has a week at Kentucky before being slapped around by Auburn and Georgia Tech.

The ACC: what is up with this now-whacky conference? Miami, then Virginia Tech, was the favorite to win last year’s ACC, which was ultimately won by Florida State (who finished 5-3 in conference play). This year has been just as ridiculous. BC, Wake Forest, Maryland, and Clemson all seem to have a shot at the Atlantic Division title. Georgia Tech, after getting past NCState this weekend, should have an easy road to taking a 10-2 record into the conference championship. I guess I shouldn’t complain. The ACC of the recent past is definitely more interesting than the decade beforehand, when Florida State never lost.

Virginia Tech plays Miami this weekend, and honestly, I’m not sure who to pick. This used to be the game that determined the Big East championship, but now it seems to determine who is the best decent team in the ACC Coastal Division. Larry Coker is basically done at Miami, but a decisive win against the Hokies could make his argument for continued employment a tiny bit more interesting. He’d probably have to win the rest of his games (at Maryland, at Virginia, Boston College) to keep his job, though.

This weekend is chalk full (what does that even mean?) of interesting conference matchups. West Virginia goes to Louisville to decide the Big East (until they both have to play Rutgers and Pittsburgh). Missouri goes to Nebraska to decide the Big 12 North. Oklahoma travels to College Station, where Texas A&M must win to have a shot at the Big 12 South. Arkansas goes to South Carolina to begin a three-game crusade for the SEC West. Tennessee hosts LSU, trying to keep their SEC East hopes alive. Boston College plays Wake Forest, and Maryland plays Clemson to bring the ACC Atlantic race into focus.

I’ll end this week’s sermon by addressing the question on everyone’s mind: who will play for the national title on January 8? The Ohio State/Michigan winner looks like a lock for No. 1, but the No. 2 BCS spot is still up for grabs. A close loss by Ohio State could set up a rematch, but that seems unlikely. I’m guessing West Virginia, Louisville, Florida, Auburn, or Texas will face the Buckeyes in Arizona, and I don’t think any of those teams would win. Thankfully, there is still a lot of football to be played (and watched) before then.

Bunting got the axe. We all figured Amato might be next, but then we got this out of East Lansing:

With three games remaining in another disappointing season, Michigan State has decided that John L. Smith will not return to coach the 2007 season.

Giving up 46 unanswered points to Indiana probably wasn’t good for the ole job security.