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It’s the End of the Season as We Know It

Well, it’s finally time for me to dispense my thoughts on the next two weeks of football. I’m sure you have all been waiting eagerly at your computer screens to read this. I stayed up past my bedtime to get this in by the promised Tuesday night deadline, so you’d better all be appreciative. In chronological order, here are the rivalries! (All times Eastern!)

Tennessee at Vanderbilt (11/18, 12:30 PM, ESPN Plus): The Commodores pulled off an upset last season, their first win in the series in twenty-two years. Vanderbilt hasn’t beat Tennessee twice in a row since the 1920s. I don’t expect that streak to end any time soon.

Michigan at Ohio State (11/18, 3:30 PM, ABC): As good as Michigan is, they won’t beat Ohio State in this year’s “Game of the Century”: “Judgment Day”. The real shame is that the loss will prevent the Wolverines from reaching the title game. Because they will be idle, Michigan will be passed by whoever emerges victorious from #3-#8. None of those teams deserve it more, but that’s the way the BCS cookie crumbles.

Auburn at Alabama (11/18, 3:30 PM, CBS): Thankfully, there is now nothing to distract Auburn from their trip to Tuscaloosa. I’m kind of scared that the Tigers could blow it anyway, considering how bad they looked against Georgia last weekend. Will Cox duplicate last Saturday’s “which team is which?” performance? Doubtful. Plus, there’s no way I could pick the Tide with a clear conscience. Let’s make it five in a row, Tuberville!

I hope these guys need their paper bags again when Auburn comes to town.

California at USC (11/18, 8 PM, ABC): As much as I want it to happen, I don’t think California’s going to beat USC. The Bears are coming off a devastating loss to Arizona. Even though a win would mean the first Rose Bowl trip for the school since the 50s, I don’t think the motivation will be enough to overcome USC’s frustrating luck.

Texas A&M at Texas (11/24, 12 PM, ABC): With Texas’ starting quarterback injured and their defense in a slump, this year is the best shot the Aggies have had at beating their long-time rivals in a while. I’m tempted to predict an upset here, but A&M hasn’t been able to win close games this season (see Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Nebraska). What the heck. I’ll pick the Aggies anyway.

LSU at Arkansas (11/24, 2:30 PM, CBS): LSU was barely held off at Auburn, trounced at Florida, and last-minute victorious at Tennessee. I’m hoping they’ll improve to 2-2 away in Fayetteville, but there is too much riding on this one for the Razorbacks to falter. They are the real deal, folks. McFadden, Jones, and Monk will destroy the Tiger defense and prepare for a showdown with the Gators in Atlanta.

After taking care of the Vols, few are doubting Arkansas any more.

Florida at Florida State (11/25, 12 PM, ???): Last year’s matchup was an embarrassment to the Seminoles, and this year won’t be much different. Now that Jeff Bowden has resigned, Florida State can work towards winning this rivalry by the end of the decade. They might as well start Saturday.

Georgia Tech at Georgia (11/25, 3:30 PM, ???): Georgia’s win at Auburn was probably the worst thing that could have happened to the Yellow Jackets. The Bulldogs will carry the rivalry momentum back to Athens with high hopes to recover an awful season. However, Tech hasn’t won for five years straight and is on its way to an ACC championship. I think the Yellow Jackets have a little more incentive, don’t you? Nick and Ehren, I hope you enjoy the win!

Notre Dame at USC (11/25, 8 PM, ABC): The privilege of closing the “four-peat” (actually, “‘two-out-of-three’-peat”) door on the Trojans will be reserved for Notre Dame. Brady Quinn is going to use Army as a warm-up for his destruction of USC’s defense. Touchdown Jesus is going to fly from his end zone in South Bend to get revenge for last year’s “Bush Push” nonsense. The luck of the Irish will overcome USC’s 31-game home win streak, and it will be beautiful.

I’ll be back in two weeks to see how wrong I was and offer my thoughts on Rutgers/West Virginia and the conference championships. Enjoy these matchups while you can. After that, it’s another month until the good bowl games, then eight months until college football returns. Dang.

CFP, Week 12

Well, the CFP was destroyed once again by an onslaught of upsets. The falls of Auburn, Texas, and California were all noteworthy, but the worst came at Washington, where Stanford overcame a ratings margin over 16 points for the first time in the history of CFP. Looks like I’m gonna have to narrow my gimmees a little bit. No surprise, Notre Dame did not fall to Air Force, and Florida State didn’t win, either. Oh yeah, and Connecticut beat Pittsburgh on a gutsy two-point conversion in double overtime. Connecticut?

Six gimmees this weekend: Wisconsin/Buffalo, Navy/Temple, Georgia Tech/Duke, Boise State/Utah State, BYU/New Mexico, and LSU/Ole Miss. Close matchups to watch: Pittsburgh is picked over West Virginia by the tip of a nose, Cincinnati is not that far behind 10-0 Rutgers, and Wake Forest has only a slight edge on Virginia Tech, even with the home field bonus. Oh, and Ohio State is up 9.3 points on Michigan. Just thought I’d throw that in there.

You can read the rest of the predictions of Tito’s system at http://tito.asimweb.org/cfp/week12.html. Here’s hoping the last four weeks of the season are kind to the CFP’s record.

On Notice!

Just gonna hit the highlights this week:
Auburn, Texas, and Cal – You all lost, ending any chance of playing for the title.
FSU – Losing by 30 at home to anyone is embarassing.
Offense in the SEC – When the Fightin’ McFaddens of Arkansas are the closest thing you have to a high-powered offense, there’s something wrong.
Maryland – All of your wins have come by 6 or less – at some point (against either BC or Wake), your luck will run out.
Notre Dame – Going for the Commander-in-Chief trophy this weekend against Army. Notre Dame, why do you hate America?
Duke – You suck so bad, you probably can’t beat hurt Reggie either.

Bowl Predictions, Week 5

I somehow lost count of the weeks. This is week 5.

Thanks to Texas, Auburn, and Cal, these are especially confused rankings.

I see a OSU-USC title game at this point, which is hilariously what I had the first two weeks I did this. Why Rutgers in the Rose? Well, with Cal’s loss, the only way they make the Rose now is by beating USC, so I had to use another team. I figured that an undefeated Rutgers might be attractive enough for the Rose. I would’ve put Florida there, but this year the bowls have actual tie-ins again and therefore Florida is tied to the Sugar unless they make it to the BCS title game. Notre Dame was also attractive, but they’ve already played Michigan this year.

I still don’t want to predict GT into the Orange Bowl, and could see them falling as far as the Gator. Also, check out Miami and FSU, the darlings of the ACC. (Whoops!) Despite what everyone thinks, Wake has the inside track to win their division.

Not much else to say. The picture will be clearer after this weekend, at least a little.

The BCS Survives Again

Last weekend, Louisville was poised to win the rest of its games and finish third in the BCS standings. The debate raged over whether an undefeated Big East team should be ranked above a one-loss team from one of the other six major conferences (the answer, in my opinion, is no; see my last article for an explanation). When Rutgers beat the Cardinals Thursday night, a crowd of one-loss’ers and the undefeated Scarlet Knights all looked like they had a chance at reaching the title game. How would the BCS successfully rank this many good teams? The system everyone loves to hate looked like it was going to reach a new low of confusion.

Then, the unthinkable happened: three of the teams in the top ten of the BCS standings lost to unranked opponents.

First, Auburn was dominated at home by Georgia, whose 37-15 romp of the Tigers was a perfect storm of sorts. Stafford displayed confidence at quarterback, while Cox completed as many passes to Bulldogs as he did to Tigers (four to each group, out of twelve attempts). Auburn’s defense, which my friend Kyle compared to a block of Swiss cheese, was finally exposed as hideous. Punter Kody Bliss had a serious off-day. Wide receiver Courtney Taylor led the Tigers in rushing with 51 yards. “It isn’t good when your wide receiver is your leading rusher,” said tailback Brad Lester. Agreed.

Later in the day, California fell at Arizona, 20-24. The Bears outproduced the Wildcats 356-262, but three California turnovers and two fourth-down conversions by Arizona made the upset possible. I never thought California was all that amazing, but to see them fall like this is a bit surprising. Perhaps there is more parity in the Pac-10 than SEC fans like myself give it credit for. (What am I thinking? Of course not.) At Kansas State, another Wildcats team upset Texas. On the Longhorns’ first drive, star freshman quarterback Colt McCoy was injured underneath a pile of players. Unfortunately for Texas, the Longhorns’ defense couldn’t slow down the Wildcats enough for the offense to outscore them.

#5: Auburn, California, and Texas.
#88: Georgia, Arizona, and Kansas State.
Basically, these three upsets of major teams were a huge break for the BCS, which should be renamed “Benefits from Chaotic Seasons”. Barring a rematch of the Big Ten Championship, six teams now have a reasonable chance of reaching Arizona in January: USC, Florida, Notre Dame, Rutgers, Arkansas, and West Virginia. What’s amazing is that all six of those teams will play one of the others by the end of the season, simplifying the BCS headache. What’s ridiculous is that USC is ranked above Florida and Rutgers is ranked above Arkansas.

I’ll be back by Tuesday night with my terribly uninformed game predictions for the next two weeks. Until then, please write angry emails to the AP Poll voters for ranking USC #3.