Category Archives: college football

This Weekend in College Football: Week 12

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Michigan @ Pennsylvania State (ABC): Both these teams sport excellent defenses, but Michigan, unlike Penn State, has some semblance of a pulse on offense.
  • North Carolina @ Virginia Tech (ESPN): Carolina’s rampage through the ACC Coast figures to carry them all the way to Charlotte, which it would with a win here.
  • Purdue @ Iowa (ESPN2): Speaking of continuing unabated through the weak division of your conference…
  • Iowa State @ Kansas State (FS1): Honestly, I’m going with Iowa State in this one. K-State’s six-game losing streak is just bad at this point. Iowa State has a win over Texas a competitive loss to Oklahoma State in the meantime.
  • Memphis @ Temple (ESPNU): With both these teams taking defeats, the luster has worn off a bit of these two, but it may still be the best game in this time slot.
  • Illinois @ Minnesota (ESPNEWS): The Illinois “playing with house money” season continues, as I’m giving them a slight edge here.
  • Florida Atlantic @ Florida (SEC): So… this one is mostly a matter of how early the Gators feel comfortable pulling their starters.
  • Rutgers @ Army (CBSS): If Army has any shot of getting another win against a FBS team this year, this is probably their best chance. So why not?
  • Indiana @ Maryland (BTN): At a party last weekend, my Ohio State buddy assured me that Indiana isn’t as terrible this year as they have been in the recent past. And hey, he’s right. Sure, they’ve lost six straight games, but only two of them were by more than one score (a 26 point loss to Sparty and a 26 point loss to… Penn State, of all teams). But they were game against the Buckeyes, Hawkeyes, and Wolverine(-eyes?), and they can score points. Which is a long way of saying, I’m guessing they’re going to vent some frustration on Maryland and Purdue here in the next couple of weeks.

12:30

  • Syracuse @ North Carolina State (ACC): NC State has six wins and their best win this year is probably… this game, if they win it. Which they probably well. Let me put this way, if GT played their out-of-conference schedule, we’d be bowling.
  • Georgia Tech @ Miami (ACC): Speaking of… us, well, this season is pretty much a disaster at this point. I’m not sure what else to say about it. I think it hit me how terrible the injury situation has been when, in the middle of the Virginia Tech game last week, I realized there were guys on defense making plays whose names I’d never heard, and I was watching the tenth game of the season. That is not normally when you want guys to be getting their first starts/snaps!
    As for this game, I have no idea how it will go. Given the state of these two teams, there may well be a few… dozen fans in the stands Saturday afternoon. I’m not sure what else to say.

3:30:

  • Louisiana State @ Mississippi (CBS): Speaking of matchups that have lost their luster, this looked like it could be a battle of the SEC West of Alabama fell from their perch, but instead it was their contenders who faltered. In the battle or best runner-up, then, who will prevail? Eh, probably LSU, the Arkansas thing feels like a fluke.
  • Michigan State @ Ohio State (ABC): Ohio State is a large favorite here and I’m not entirely sure why. Their loss was shocking, but still. I had the Buckeyes the whole in this one anyway, but I still figure the game will be relatively close.
  • California-Los Angeles @ Utah (FOX): Hard to get a read on either of these teams at this point. Which one’s better? Beats me. Utah in a coinflip.
  • Southern California @ Oregon (ESPN): When you’re Oregon, a three-loss season is a bit of a calamity, but they’re rallied and reeled off four straight, including last week’s upset of Stanford. Now, we get a retro-but-not-really matchup between Oregon and Southern Cal. I’m going with the Trojans, mostly because they seem to play some defense?
  • Wake Forest @ Clemson (ESPN2): Clemson rolls.
  • Arizona @ Arizona State (FS1): It’s the battle for the Territorial Cup! And it’s a bit anticlimatic, in a way, as I don’t think the season has gone the way either school wanted. The Sun Devils could still drop these last two and miss a bowl. I think they’ll make it, though.
  • Houston @ Connecticut (ESPNU): UConn beat Tulane last weekend, that’s not news. What is? They won 7-3. Yeah. Cougars roll.
  • Buffalo @ Akron (CBSS): They play MAC games on Saturdays? These two are actually perfectly in the middle of the MAC East standings, so it could be close. I’ve got Buffalo here, though.
  • Northwestern @ Wisconsin (BTN): The teams that were supposed to be competing for the Big Ten West are… not thanks to our glorious, fearless Hawkeye leaders. And so the Wildcats and Badgers got relegated to the Big Ten Network, which I still don’t get in HD for some reason. Anyway! Who’s going to win? I’m going with Wisconsin, they’re just a better team.

3:45: Louisville @ Pittsburgh (ESPNEWS): Yeah Louisville, I see you there, just sort of hanging around behind Clemson and FSU in the Atlantic. And they’ll still be there, even after they lose to Pitt.

4:00: Idaho @ Auburn (SEC): I think Auburn’s got this one. Hopefully no one gets the copycat idea to punch their eagle.

6:00: Washington @ Oregon State (Pac12): Speaking of disappointing seasons, oof. The Beavers are just bad. UDub rolls.

7:00:

  • Navy @ Tulsa (CBSS): Everyone in Annapolis is wondering why Army had such a bad time with this conference thing. After a win in Tulsa, they’re going to roll into undefeated Houston next week for a huge game with a C-USA West title on the line. Good times!
  • Mississippi State @ Arkansas (ESPN): The even weirder thing about Arkansas’s rampage through the SEC West has been that they beat Mississippi and LSU on the road. Seriously, they won two straight against the two best not-Alabama teams in the conference away from home. Will they revert to form now that they’re back in the cozy confines of Fayetteville? Hard to pick against them here.
  • Georgia Southern @ Georgia (ESPNU): As much as I’d love to see it, I don’t think the Eagles stand much of a chance here.

7:15: Tennessee @ Missouri (ESPN2): In six conference games, Mizzou has score 62 points. 62! There’s teams with more points in a game than that! That’s… not good! Tennessee rolls.

7:30:

  • Baylor @ Oklahoma State (FOX): Okay, well, who ya got? Here’s what we know. There’s going to be lots of points and something crazy will happen. It’s in Stillwater, which means that the crazy could really go either way. I’m going with Baylor, because that will create the maximum amount of chaos.
  • Charlotte @ Kentucky (SEC): Kentucky rolls.
  • Texas A&M @ Vanderbilt (SEC): TAMU rolls. (Still mad the “A&M” doesn’t stand for anything, though).
  • Boston College vs. Notre Dame (@Boston, MA; NBCSN): Being played at Fenway Park for some reason. Domers roll.

8:00:

  • Texas Christian @ Oklahoma (ABC): Again: maximum chaos dictates that Oklahoma wins. Is there any loss that will prove to be more weird than that loss to Texas?
  • Tulane @ Southern Methodist (ESPNEWS): With the two Big 12 games overlapping, I’m guessing the viewership for two AAC also-rans will be pretty abysmal. Going with SMU, because, hey, chaos. Let’s stay on message here. (Also, for all their other issues, they can actually score.)

10:30:

  • California @ Stanford (ESPN): It’s the Big Game! Nice and late over here, too. And talk about a legacy of chaos! Despite the Oregon loss, though, I think Stanford is just the better team. However, in this rivalry, more than any other, it goes with saying: crazier things happened.
  • San Diego State @ Nevada-Las Vegas (CBSS):

10:45: Colorado @ Washington State (ESPN2): It would really be chaotic if somehow Wazzou dropped this, but… yeah, okay, probably not.

Bowl Predictions 2015: Week 5

They’re up relatively early this week, so have at them.

This will be a brief writeup. First off, I’m bringing back my contenders chart for this year. Here’s what it looks like after this weekend:


Oklahoma’s defeat of Baylor moved them in for me, but there’s still plenty of time for the Big 12 to eat its own children.

This week, I’m back up to three unfilled bowl slots. Again, I want to stress I’ve never gotten this late into the season short of teams. We’re liable to have a real problem on our hands in a few weeks unless there’s some more wacky upsets.

Not much else is notable this week. Next week will almost certainly change everything again, especially with regards to the Big 12. So, until then…

This Weekend in College Football: Week 11

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Georgia @ Auburn (CBS): It’s the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry once again, but this time around, at least, I’ll be shocked if Auburn wins.
  • Ohio State @ Illinois (ABC): Ohio State should roll here, regardless of their QB situation.
  • Florida @ South Carolina (ESPN): It’s a bit of a lost season for the Gamecocks, while the Gators look ascendant.
  • Maryland @ Michigan State (ESPN2): I can’t conceive of how Maryland would have a chance here…
  • Kansas @ Texas Christian (FS1): … much less KU.
  • Texas @ West Virginia (ESPNU): I think these are both teams that have had ups-and-downs this season while still trying to find themselves.
  • Pittsburgh @ Duke (ESPNEWS): I think these teams are about even, really, but I slightly favor Duke.
  • North Texas @ Tennessee (SEC): Tennessee rolls.
  • Tulane @ Army (CBSS): Neither of these teams are terrible good, but I’m going with the Green Wave.
  • Purdue @ Northwestern (BTN): Northwestern should get a respite here.

12:30:

  • North Carolina State @ Florida State (ACC): FSU is still good enough to beat NC State, I’m pretty sure.
  • Virginia @ Louisville (ACC/RSN): Despite losing to them, I still don’t think UVA is very good and I wonder how Mike London is still employed. Louisville should win.

3:00: Washington @ Arizona State (Pac12): An early Pac-12 game that’s proving difficult for me to contemplate, but this may be worth keeping an eye on. Ultimately, I like the Sun Devils better.

3:30:

  • Alabama @ Mississippi State (CBS): I have the line on this as being Bama by 8, but despite being initially tempted to say Miss State would cover I’m now doubting it. I was in Austin last weekend, and I wound up watching most of the first half at this bar full of LSU fans. Let me tell you, they’re as celebratory of a bunch as you’d be led to believe, but the Tide absolutely owned that second half. They look pretty good.
  • Wake Forest @ Notre Dame (NBC): Wake should offer little resistance for the Domers.
  • Michigan @ Indiana (ABC/ESPN2): Even if the Wolverines were to have a bad time offensively, I don’t think it will matter much against the Hoosiers.
  • Clemson @ Syracuse (ABC/ESPN2): Seriously, what’s up with these 3:30 games? Clemson should roll.
  • Kansas State @ Texas Tech (FS1): As should Texas Tech, but K-State figures to be game, at least.
  • Miami @ North Carolina (ESPNU): I don’t think Miami is terrible or anything, but the Tarheels look “for realz” as the kids say.
  • Nebraska @ Rutgers (BTN): Again, seriously. Maybe just stick to UDub and Arizona State or something. Nebraska should have this one.

4:00: Kentucky @ Vanderbilt (SEC): Ugh. While I think the top of the SEC is pretty good, the bottom is as terrible as the bottom of any other conference in the country. Despite that, Kentucky is still slightly less bad than the ‘dores.

7:00:

  • Memphis @ Houston (ESPN2): Honestly, this might be the most intriguing games of the week. I’m going with Houston here, but there’s no shortage of goodness here. Especially if most of the 3:30 games are runawys by the time 7:00 rolls around.
  • Western Carolina @ Texas A&M (ESPNU): TAMU rolls.
  • Temple @ South Florida (CBSS): Temple should have this one.

7:15: Arkansas @ Louisiana State (ESPN): The battle for the boot is always a good one, and hey, with LSU involved there’s always a potential for wackiness. If I’m honest, though, I don’t thin the Razorbacks have much of a chance.

7:30:

  • Oregon @ Stanford (FOX): Against this version of Oregon, Stanford should roll.
  • Tulsa @ Cincinnati (ESPNEWS): Cincy seems to be stuck. Somehow, they aren’t one of the top teams in the AAC, but they’re obviously still better than most of the other AAC teams. If I were a Bearcats fan, I’d be kind of bummed that we apparently missed getting on the good side of the conference reshuffle a few years back.
  • Brigham Young vs. Missouri (@Kansas City, MO; SEC): Still not convinced Mizzou can score, so going with BYU here,

8:00

  • Oklahoma @ Baylor (ABC): For Game of the Week honors, this edges out Memphis and Houston, but not by much. Oklahoma’s only blemish is the bizarre blowout to Texas. Baylor is unbloodied but still somewhat untested. I think they survive this test, but their trials have only just begun.
  • Minnesota @ Iowa (BTN): I think Iowa will go undefeated, given their schedule.

10:00: Utah @ Arizona (FS1): Despite that blowout loss to USC, the Utes still lead the Pac-12 South. I don’t see that situation changing.

10:15: New Mexico @ Boise State (ESPNU): I need to watch this to see which triple-option variant Bob Davie runs, if for no other reason. Boise should win.

10:30:

  • Wyoming @ San Diego State (CBSS): Aztecs all the way.
  • Oregon State @ California (Pac12): Cal should be able to pick themselves back up off the loss to Oregon and recover to at least go .500 against the state this year.

10:45: Washington State @ California-Los Angeles (ESPN): Wazzou may be the best ever team to lose to an FCS team. I recall the dire predictions after the Portland State loss and, at the time, it wasn’t hard to disagree. Since then, the Cougs have seeimingly done the job. I think this game, though, will show the sort of thing they’re up against, and that’s the vastly superior talent of teams like UCLA. I like the Bruins her.e

Bowl Predictions 2015: Week 4

They’re late but they’re here.

First, let’s start with the “Not Enough Teams” watch. This time around, I’ve got 78 teams for 80 slots. I will say that I tried to be a bit more optimistic this time around, and well having more data always helps. I’m naturally not a very optimistic person, but if I had to guess, I think we’re going to make it.

I’ll do my first breakdown of the year.

Playoff
I went with Clemson, Baylor, Alabama, and Ohio State in that order. I would say my jilted team in this case would the winner of the Notre Dame/Stanford game, assuming they win out otherwise. We’ve still got plenty of season to go, though. It’s entirely possible the Big 12’s round-robin schedule will eat its own children again, or Ohio State losing to Michigan State.

The last slot of the playoff controlled bowls was probably the toughest, though. I went back and modified my predictions so that I had Utah beating UCLA and wining the Pac-12 South, which allowed me to slot them into the Fiesta Bowl. The winner of the American is probably still on the fast-track to the Group of Five slot, though the question is if it’ll be Houston or Navy, I’d think. Otherwise, I don’t think my picks are controversial at this point.

ACC
I have North Carolina winning the Coastal, but I don’t think a two-loss UNC (one current loss plus a loss to Clemson in the ACC championship game) is going to get into a CFP-controlled bowl. Otherwise, the picks proceed apace. I have Virginia Tech edging into a bowl on the back of a Frank Beamer farewell tour, even if that means a return to the Military Bowl for a second straight year. Coach-less and 7-5 Miami get sent to Detroit.

Big 12
With TCU’s loss to Oklahoma State, I have them taking a loss to Baylor. I’m not sure a two loss TCU makes it into the CFP-controlled bowls. I don’t think Oklahoma is going to fare well in their backloaded schedule, either. I have Texas, Texas Tech, and West Virginia finishing 6-6. Kansas State figures to just miss out.

Big Ten
Michigan State’s shock loss to Nebraska removes them from CFP-bowl contention, while not really doing much for Nebraska’s own bowl prospects, so that has to be a bummer for the Big Ten. In fact, I don’t have the Big Ten west faring well as a whole, with that sixth win likely eluding Illinois as well as Nebraska and Minnesota.

Pac-12
The Pac-12 is doing its part, especially with probably the best ever team to lose to a FCS team, Washington State, likely to finish 8-4 at this point. (Seriously, who saw that coming back in September?)

SEC
The SEC figures to be the only conference to get three teams into the CFP-controlled bowls, but the drop off does seem pretty stark after Alabama, LSU, and Florida. The best of the bunch seems to be a 9-3 Georgia. (Yeah.) But hey, I did manage to set up a Texas-Texas A&M matchup in the Texas Bowl. (Seriously, it’s just too perfect, which is probably why it won’t happen. But seriously, the Texas Bowl! Come on!)

Group of Five
As I said earlier, the winner of Houston-Navy figures to have the best shot at the Group of Five slot, followed by Temple probably. Undefeated Toledo may have had a shot, but that likely slipped away.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 10

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh (ABC): This game is vastly more interesting than anyone would’ve predicted back in August, I’d say. That said, having watched both these teams play my team, I’m going with the Domers all the way.
  • Vanderbilt @ Florida (ESPN): As James Earl Jones intoned when the Red October purposely steered into the path of that torpedo, “Mother of God”.
  • Duke @ North Carolina (ESPN2): This might be the most important edition of this rivalry to ever be played on natural grass. Again, having played (and lost to!) both these teams, I have to go with Carolina.
  • Texas Tech @ West Virginia (FS1): It’s not just the top of the Big 12 that’s a puzzle right now, it’s also the middle-to-bottom. That said, Texas Tech has generally acquitted themselves better over the Big 12 schedule and look primed to take this one.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Northwestern (ESPNU): Don’t look, but Penn State is 7-2. Actually, go ahead and take a look now because those seven wins are over nobodies and the schedule is horribly backloaded, with the Wildcats being the tip of the spear, followed by Michigan and Michigan State. 7-2 looks like it’s about to become 7-5.
  • Central Florida @ Tulsa (ESPNEWS): Central Florida continues their quest to be one of the most historically awful teams ever and look primed to lose to Tulsa.
  • Kentucky @ Georgia (SEC): I don’t buy the crisis over in Athens. I just don’t. Lots of teams having down years that are worse than UGA’s, and besides, it’s not like they had a quarterback. Things look to be on the upswing starting here.
  • Illinois @ Purdue (BTN): Yeah, so it turns out that Illinois is as bad as we all thought, it just took a while for them to realize it as well. Yeah, that’s right, I’m going to take a 2-6 team over a 4-4 team, and there’s nothing you can do to stop me!
  • Akron @ Massachusetts (CBSS): Akron will zip into the end zone early and often in this one.

12:30:

  • North Carolina State @ Boston College (ACC): While BC’s defense is legitimately stingy, they’re just screwed if anyone can score, like, 10 points against them. Which NC State probably will.
  • Syracuse @ Louisville (ACC): While I don’t think they’re going to win, I think the ‘Cuse have generally exceeded expectations this year.

1:00: Stanford @ Colorado (Pac12): I feel like Stanford’s offense is probably best described through a series of onomatopoeia. Words like “pow!”, “bam!”, etc.

3:00: Virginia @ Miami (ACC/RSN): I refuse to believe Miami will lose this game. I won’t accept it. Though it’s odd that Virginia will play two teams in a row coming off miracle, last-second wins. Perhaps they’ll get two let-downs in a row?

3:30:

  • Florida State @ Clemson (ABC): I have zero problems with Clemson being #1 in the meaningless first edition of the college playoff rankings. For starters, they’re meaningless at this point. Also, I think Clemson really is that good. FSU is good, but they have a lot of issues, especially on their offensive line. Unlike us, Clemson’s defensive line doesn’t need to have the game of their lives, they just need to have a normal day at the office and they should be able to shut FSU down.
  • Texas Christian @ Oklahoma State (FOX): Oklahoma State is undefeated, but it seems a flimsy sort of undefeated, as though it shouldn’t really count. I’ve got TCU all the way here.
  • Arkansas @ Mississippi (CBS): After a two game respite, it’s back to the grind for Bert and company. By which I mean they’re going to lose badly.
  • Iowa @ Indiana (ESPN): Iowa is also a puzzling undefeated team, but they remain safe for now.
  • Cincinnati @ Houston (ESPN2): Speaking of undefeated teams, this could be a really fun undercard. I like Houston here.
  • Arizona State @ Washington State (FS1): I’m going with Wazzou because, well, why the hell not?
  • Army @ Air Force (ESPNU): I’m going to go ahead and say that Army does not look like a huge favorite to regain the Command-in-Chief’s trophy this year.
  • Utah State @ New Mexico (CBSS): The Lobos are actually not awful this year, but these Aggies are still better.
  • Rutgers @ Michigan (BTN): Michigan rolls.

4:00:

  • Connecticut @ Temple (ESPNEWS): Temple vs. Memphis is in two weeks, don’t screw it up, Owls.
  • South Carolina @ Tennessee (SEC): Two programs, opposite directions. The Vols look good in this one.

4:30: California-Los Angeles @ Oregon State (Pac12): It’s been a frustrating year for Bruin fans, but this game and their next look very winnable, and they still have a pretty good shot at the Pac-12 South title.

7:00:

  • Michigan State @ Nebraska (ESPN): Sparty shouldn’t have too many problems in this one.
  • Navy @ Memphis (ESPN2): This is probably the highlight of the “bridge” games to the LSU-Alabama game. Navy should figure to give Memphis fits, but the Tigers have the offense to keep up. I suspect Navy will find themselves outmanned in the second half.
  • Iowa State @ Oklahoma (ESPNU): The Sooners should continue their quest to play spoiler in the Big 12.

7:30:

  • Utah @ Washington (FOX): I still like the Utes well enough to beat UDub, but I’m not sure about the rest of their schedule.
  • Auburn @ Texas A&M (SEC): I can’t think of any other team that more epitomizes the “boom” and “bust” cycle of college athletics than Auburn.
  • South Florida @ East Carolina (CBSS): ECU should(?) be able to handle this one.

8:00

  • Louisiana State @ Alabama (CBS): So this one is tough. That said, I still think Alabama has the defense to stop LSU, and while it’s happened before, I think Alabama has the advantage in a low scoring game at home.
  • Minnesota @ Ohio State (ABC): Even without their nominal starter, the Buckeyes should be able to handle this one.

10:30

  • Arizona @ Southern California (ESPN): The resurgent Trojans figure to handle this one easily.
  • California @ Oregon (ESPN2): This might be the toughest pick of the day. I’m going with Cal based purely on gut.