Category Archives: college football

Bowl Games: Part V, The Run-Up

With 10 games in two days out of the way, it’s time go down the home stretch to the national title game. As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong:

Friday (note that these are all after the fact reflections, since I was lazy/busy)

  • Texas Tech vs. Mississippi, Cotton Bowl (@Dallas, TX; 2:00 PM, FOX): How the hell did Texas Tech get owned in this game? It makes no sense. I don’t even want to think about it.
  • East Carolina vs. Kentucky, Liberty Bowl (@Memphis, TN; 5:00 PM, ESPN): I’m pretty much on a 3 day losing streak at this point. The last predictions I got right was Kansas over Minnesota, and I missed everything else on the 31st. Ugh.
  • Alabama vs. Utah, Sugar Bowl (@New Orleans, LA; 8:00 PM, FOX): Watching this right now. Utah jumped out to a big lead but Bama just pulled within a score. I think Bama can still come back and run away with this, but going in I thought it would be pretty close. So yeah. I wouldn’t be upset to be wrong about this one, that’s for sure.

Saturday

  • Buffalo vs. Connecticut, International Bowl (@Toronto, ON, CA; 12:00 PM, ESPN2): Hey, it’s the International Bowl! Maybe I’ll actually get to see it this year (since I missed it previously due to traveling). UConn should win this, but the way things are going for me right now, who knows?

Monday

  • Texas vs. Ohio State, Fiesta Bowl (@Glendale, AZ; 8:00 PM, FOX): Probably the best of the remaining bowls, this should provide an interesting game between two teams who did not have their seasons go quite the way they wanted. I really think Texas is more talented than OSU, but it will probably really hinge on how they’ve handled the let down of not being in the title game.

Tuesday

  • Ball State vs. Tulsa, GMAC Bowl (@Mobile, AL; 8:00 PM, ESPN): It’s the Disappointment Bowl! Ball State was undefated, and then lost in their conference championship game. Tulsa was also undefeated until they played Arkansas late in the year, and then should’ve beaten a very moribund East Carolina in the C-USA title game. In other words, both these teams probably expected more. I also think Tulsa is light years more talented than Ball State and should win this one by a couple of scores.

Next up, national title game predictions!

Bowl Games: Part IV, 1/1

Happy New Year! Suffice it to say that I don’t really want to talk about football right now, but I’ll try. Here’s today’s games. As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong:

  • Iowa vs. South Carolina, Outback Bowl (@Tampla, FL; 11:00 AM, ESPN): I just refuse to believe Iowa is that good or that South Carolina is that bad. Hopefully The Visor spent the past few weeks coaching instead instead of playing golf.
  • Clemson vs. Nebraska, Gator Bowl (@Jacksonville, FL; 2:00 PM, CBS): Why is Clemson here? I have no idea; FSU definitely got shafted. That said, I can at least appreciate the “logic” of Clemson being here (hot end to the season) and I think that gives them an edge over the Huskers.
  • Georgia vs. Michigan State, Capital One Bowl (@Orlando, FL; 1:00 PM, ABC): I mostly picked the Spartans out of spite, and after last night I’m really hoping this holds up.
  • Pennsylvania State vs. Southern California, Rose Bowl (@Pasadena, CA; 4:30 PM, ABC): Despite the hype, this probably really is the best game of the day. In the end, though, I don’t know if Penn State can score enough against USC to keep up. My generic guess is that it’s close at the half and then USC pulls away late in the 3rd quarter.
  • Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati, Orange Bowl (@Miami, FL; 8:30 PM, FOX): Unless you’re a huge college football fan or a fan of either team I can’t think much of a reason to watch this game. I also hope the ACC can avoid embarassment in their latest BCS effort and win won for once.

I’ll be back later today or early tomorrow to bring you all the rest of the pre-national title game picks.

Bowl Games: Part III, 12/31

Here’s all the games of the last day of the year. As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

  • Air Force vs. Houston, Armed Forces Bowl (@Fort Worth, TX; 12:00 PM, ESPN): I’m taking the Falcons here not because I’m currently running an Air Force dynasty in NCAA 2009 right now, but because Houston isn’t very good and, well, it’s the Armed Forces Bowl. Air Force almost has to win.
  • Oregon State vs. Pittsburgh, Sun Bowl (@El Paso, TX; 2:00 PM, CBS): I am finally picking Pitt to win a football game, and I’m hoping I don’t regret it. That said, I can’t think of very many teams more disappointed heading into their bowl game than the Beavers.
  • Vanderbilt vs. Boston College, Music City Bowl (@Nashville, TN; 3:30 PM, ESPN): As much as I like rooting for Vandy during the season, they pretty much tanked after the Auburn win, beating only Kentucky in their next seven games afterwards. BC is a decent football team, and should win, but I also don’t expect the score to be that high.
  • Kansas vs. Minnesota, Insight Bowl (@Tempe, AZ; 5:30 PM, NFL): Kansas ended the season with a strong victory over Mizzou, and I can’t say I’ve though much of the Gophers at all over the course of the season. So I’m taking KU, and let’s face it, since it’s on the NFL Network it’s not like you’ll see if I’m wrong anyway.
  • Georgia Tech vs. Louisiana State, Chik-fil-A Bowl (@Atlanta, GA; 7:30 PM, ESPN): Usually, I avoid picking Tech at all in games. I don’t like predicting the outcome of my own team, because, well, it just feels wrong. To be consistent, I always pick Tech to win if I’m in a situation where I have to make a pick, like this one. So I did, and I won’t even attempt to provide any justification.

The next edition to the picks will be posted later tonight or tomorrow.

Bowl Games: Opening Weekend

Full predictions are now uploaded. As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Saturday

  • Wake Forest vs. Navy, EagleBank Bowl (@Washington, DC; 11:00 AM, ESPN): Maryland should’ve been here for a somewhat rare intra-state matchup with Navy, but instead we get a rematch of Navy vs. Wake Forest. Navy actually won the first time around, but I think Wake’s a decent enough team to not lose twice to the Midshipmen. Demon Deacons in a close one, 24-21.
  • Colorado State vs. Fresno State, New Mexico Bowl (@Albuquerque, NM; 2:30, ESPN): If there’s such a thing as a WAC institution, it’s Fresno State, and that’s why they got preferential bowl treatment over, say, Nevada, who got sent to Boise. CSU qualified by the skin of their teeth, and Fresno just got worked over by Boise. Nonetheless, I think Fresno is the better team here and should prevail in the end.
  • Memphis vs. South Florida, St. Petersburg Bowl (@St. Petersburg, FL; 4:30 ESPN2): This is definitely not where USF envisioned being at the end of the year. If I were less lazy, what I would probably do is calculate the most “disappointing” seasons for each bowl team and track how they do in bowl games, because at least from a subjective standpoint this seems to have as much to do with post-season performance as anything else. That said, USF is still light-years better than 6-6 Memphis and should win, though probably by not as much as they or you expect.
  • Brigham Young vs. Arizona, Las Vegas Bowl (@Las Vegas, NV; 8:00 ESPN): BYU has two losses this year to the best teams they played, and a close (and also controversial) victory over a Washington team Arizona blew out. In the first a few games that go against my usual thinking, I’m taking the Wildcats.

Sunday

  • Troy vs. Sourthern Mississippi, New Orleans Bowl (@New Orleans, LA; 8:00 ESPN): Troy finally won the Sun Belt as they should, despite managing to lose to UL-Monroe. After that, they just reeled off 3 wins and an almost upset of LSU, and wrapped up the season against UL-Lafayette and Arkansas State by a margin of 83-12. USM also had a pretty strong finish, winning 4 straight kicked off with a 70-14 blowout over UAB. That said, USM sports some bad losses and I honestly think Troy is just as good, if not better, so I’m going with the Trojans.

Tuesday

  • Texas Christian vs. Boise State, Poinsettia Bowl (@San Diego, CA; 8:00, ESPN): Ordinarily, the Poinsettia’s sister bowl, the Holiday, signals the traditional start of bowl matchups people actually care about. That’s not the case this year, as undefeated Boise State battles a darn good TCU team. And you know what? I think TCU will win this matchup. Boise is good, yes, but I think they are overrated and sport an incredibly soft schedule. It’s not like TCU’s losses came against chumps, either, unless you think that about Utah and Oklahoma. TCU sports a pretty good defense, good passing offense, and superior special teams that I think can knock-off the Broncos.

Wednesday

  • Notre Dame vs. Hawaii, Hawaii Bowl (@Honolulu, HI; 8:00, ESPN): In yet another test of motivation, we have an exceedingly mediocre Notre Dame team versus a pretty mediocre Hawaii team. Two advantages of Hawaii, though: 1) It’s a home game, basically, and 2) They’re more than happy to be there. I watched them nearly beat a decent Cincinatti team that wasn’t prepared to be there, so I can’t really fathom how ND will work up with the motivation to perform a team they should definitely outclass. The Warriors Formerly of the Rainbow win, perhaps easily.

That warps up the pre-Christmas slate. Next up, the bowls of December 26th through the 28th.

Bowl Predictions, Final

And here’s the last set of trying to call who goes where instead of who wins. Once everything is set, then the predicting begins!

Anyway, here’s some closing thoughts:

  • It’s shaping up to be a Wake Forest-Navy rematch up in DC, though this could be avoided if the Emerald takes Wake.
  • I imagine the BCS has no good solution for the Cincinnati/Utah situation. Everyone seems to assume that Cincy will fall to the Orange and I’m going along with that, but as I’ve said before in the past the last bowl on the pecking the order (in this case, the Orange) gets stuck with the mid-major. Also, the Sugar featured a mid-major team last year. On the flip side, the Fiesta is probably salivating at the thought of a Texas-Ohio State matchup, which is every bit as high profile as the Rose and the title game itself.
  • I’m still guessing LSU is Tech’s probably opponent.
  • Disappointment Bowl: the projected GMAC Bowl is a study in having a great season that just falls short.
  • Central vs. Western: In other MAC news, Central and Western Michigan both have winning records but the MAC only has 3 bids, and with the title game participants locked in it’s going to be interesting to see who gets the Motor City bid if Ball State goes to Mobile. There’s also the question of their opponent. I thought it’d be Notre Dame but the online rumor mills point to ND going to Texas or Louisiana, so I’m sliding NC State in there.
  • There was apparently a big push there year to keep bowls from announcing early. While I generally commend this trend, it does make it more frustrating to me because I basically had to do a Google news search on all the bowls a few times this week to check for news. (I used to use the ESPN news wire for this, but it’s not working as well this year.)
  • In reality, the Gators may jump OU because they a) beat the top ranked team and b) as a move by the human polls to ensure the UF-OU matchup in the title game. People prattle on about the computer polls but the reality of the situation is that with 2/3rds of the vote, the human polls exact a very large amount of control over who gets in to the title game.

Anyway, Sunday’s the big day, and I’ll have the final set of matchups uploaded tomorrow night.