Category Archives: college football

Rating the 2012 Non-Conference Slate: Prologue

Yes folks, we’re back! Let’s talk about football.

We’ve slightly tweaked the rules for this scheduling rating thing. For starters, there are four transitional members to the top level of Division I this year: Massachusetts, South Alabama, Texas State, and Texas-San Antonio. I’ve counted each of these as half a DI-AA (or DI-FCS) team, as they are not (for the most part) eligible for bowl games or conference championships. In years past, we also stuck to rating all BCS conference teams with a 0.25, 0.5, .75, or 1. However, we have now begun employing the zero rating for certain teams: Boston College, Duke, Maryland, Iowa State, Kansas, Connecticut, Temple, Indiana, Minnesota, Purdue, Colorado, and Kentucky. Remember, this rating is a entirely subjective rating on our part of teams that we consider the “most desirable” for out-of-conference play, which as just as much to do with perception as it does them actually being any good (hence why Notre Dame still carries a 0.75).

Also worth noting is the list of teams rated with a “1”: Florida State, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Oregon, Southern California, Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, and Louisiana State. Breaking it down by conference, that’s 2 for the ACC, 3 for the Big 12, 0 for the Big East, 5 for the Big Ten, 2 for the Pac-12, and 5 for the SEC.

Averaging everything out by conference, and you get:

  1. SEC (0.696 legit average)
  2. Big Ten (0.583)
  3. Big 12 (0.527)
  4. Pac-12 (0.5)
  5. ACC (0.479)
  6. Big East (0.357)

The addition of zeroes definitely hurt the ACC, Big East, and Big 12 the most, but this is probably a more accurate rating overall.

Anyway, we’ll be doing the usual conference-by-conference break down over the next several days. Until then!

If I Were on the Selection Committee

Editor’s note: So I had this big long post in process when I realized that I was handily beaten to the punch by several people with a better idea of they’re talking about. So I’ll link to one such example here: http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/2012/6/21/3105594/college-football-playoffs-selection-committee and then just post what I originally wrote below.

So everyone and their brother by now knows that college football will, in two years, begin using a 4-team, seeded playoff with teams and seeds chosen by a selection committee. The committee will prioritize won-loss record, strength of schedule, head-to-head records, and whether a team is a conference champion.

We don’t currently know who is going to be on the committee. But if they asked me, I would’ve picked the following teams.

2011
Let’s start with this past year. LSU, Oklahoma State, and Oregon are all locks to be in. But we’re already at our first conundrum. Using last year’s BCS standings as a guide, we have to go all the way to the 10th place team, Wisconsin, to get another conference champion. Within the top 5, we even have three teams that already lost to other teams in the top 5 (Alabama, Oregon, and Stanford). Likely overwhelming conventional wisdom would favor Alabama once again. I would tweak the matchups slightly to avoid rematches, so LSU would face Oklahoma State and Alabama would play Oregon in the first round.
On the outside looking in: also known as “if they had more than four teams, who would be next?” Really, I sort of feel this field is weak as is, since LSU already beat two of the other teams in the playoff. I would probably extend Wisconsin an invite as Big Ten champion. Outside of that, it’s hard to say without including other teams that lost to teams that are already in, like Stanford and Arkansas. Does Boise sneak in? If they hadn’t lost to TCU, they would’ve been right on the bubble, but as-is it’s hard to even say they’re in the next four due to their schedule.

2010
In 2010, Auburn and Oregon are obvious choices. TCU’s undefeated romp is also rewarded, however. Again, who’s the fourth? The Big Ten had a 3-way tie between Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Michigan State. Wisconsin rose highest in the rankings, likely due to them having the foresight to lose before the other two teams. But with only four teams, that’s the system we have, and so the Badgers get the coveted fourth spot.
On the outside looking in: Where to start? Stanford was pretty good that year and 5th in the polls, so they would likely be strong candidates. Then there’s the other two teams in the Big Ten tie – if you include one, then at that point you pretty much have to include the other.

2009
There were five undefeated teams in 2009: Alabama, Texas, Cincinnati, TCU, and Boise State. With won-loss records the #1 priority for the committee, surely the couldn’t leave an undefeated out in this scenario, could they? Even though they lack a signature victory, the Bearcats’s strength of schedule is probably slightly better than TCU’s or Boise’s, so they get in. From there, Boise’s signature win against Oregon pays-off in terms of four-seed.
On the outside looking in: Boise, for starters. Florida then as the only major conference 1-loss team. Then there’s a succession of 2-loss major conference champions: Oregon, Ohio State, and Georgia Tech. The last of which makes me even more retroactively depressed about those losses to Miami and UGA. Oh, well, and the fact that I guess in retrospect none of it would’ve matter anyway due to having to vacate our ACC title. Whoops.

2008
The apocalypse, basically. Utah and Boise State were the only undefeated teams, parked all the way at #6 and #9 in the BCS standings. There were 8 other teams in the top 10 with 1-loss records, including that wacky 3-way tie in the Big 12 South between Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech. At this point, I’m nearly tempted to just say “screw it” and take the top four conference champions: Oklahoma, Florida, USC, and Utah.
On the outside looking in: Screw 8 teams, we probably would’ve needed 16 to settle all the arguments 2008 would’ve generated. Texas and Alabama are almost certainly in, as well as Penn State. Do we eschew/screw over Texas Tech, or go with Boise State at this point?

2007
Remember Bizarro Year? You know, the year that started with Michigan playing a DI-AA team for the first time ever and then losing? The top 10 is a bloodbath, with only two major conference 1-loss teams (Ohio State and Kansas – yes, Kansas, like I said, it was Bizarro Year). That said, we have 4 major conference champions right at the top, so we’ll go with Ohio State, LSU, Virginia Tech, and Oklahoma.
On the outside looking in: Remember Hawaii? Yeah, they were undefeated in 2007. There are bunch of other major conference teams with two losses (and, yes, Kansas) but frankly I don’t feel like any of them had any really strong arguments for inclusion this year over the top 4.

Bowl Games 2011: Epilogue

Wherein this post has had more advance planning than LSU’s offense apparently did last night.

The final tally is up over in the usual place. This year I managed to predict 24 games correctly. I honestly didn’t think I was doing that well until I looked back over the index. I’ve been doing this since the 1999 season, and this is the best I’ve ever done by a pretty decent margin. With 24 games correct and 11 wrong, I had a winning percentage of 68.57%. The last time I broke 60% was in 2006, and before this year my previous best percentage was in 2004, with 64.29%.

So, yeah, go me! Too bad I didn’t allocate my confidence points correctly on ESPN, but alas.

As we prepare to enter what will for sure be another turbulent offseason, I have to say this has been one of the strangest seasons I can remember. Unfortunately, this isn’t due to anything that happened on the field (2007 still holds that title), but more because it felt like each scandal that broke this year was trying to top the next. First Ohio State surprised us, then Miami shocked us (well, that was more the extent; I doubt anyone was surprised that there was a scandal at Miami), but then Penn State did both and then some.

As per usual, this site will be more dormant over the next eight months, with occasional posts on soccer and baseball. But at some point the dust from various lawsuits will settle and everyone’s out-of-conference schedules will be known. Then I will rank them and tell you about them, and then try to get a post up once a week detailing that weekend’s games.

So, until then.

Quick addendum: apparently this is my 400th post on this website. Thanks for reading!

Bowl Games 2011: The Last One

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Monday, January 9
9:00: Louisiana State vs. Alabama (BCS Championship Game @ New Orleans, LA; ESPN): Let’s get this out of the way: this isn’t going to be 9-6 again. I didn’t say it was going to be high scoring, mind you, just that someone is probably going to score a touchdown this time around. (Not necessarily an offensive touchdown, though.) Both of these teams are really, really good. But I can’t really pick Alabama. For starters, LSU already been them in Tuscaloosa. Secondly, that game came down to special teams, and I think we’ll see a repeat of that here, and that really is the Crimson Tide’s Achilles’ Heel.
Previous meetings: Depending on the site you look at, Alabama either leads the series 45-24-5 or 45-23-5, depending the status of either team in 1895. And of course, neither counts the game they already played this year, so really it’s either 45-25-5 or 45-24-5. Anyway, both teams have been playing each other for a long time, though before the standardization of conference scheduling they tended to play off-and-on in blocks, meaning they have only been meeting consecutively since 1964. Alabama was the dominate team in the series before 2000, though, going 42-15-5. LSU is 9-3 since then, though, reflecting the reversal in fortunate for both teams over the past 11 years, including 5 straight LSU wins during the Bama Dark Ages of 2003-2007 (also conveniently bookending seasons in which LSU won national titles). Nick Saban went 4-1 against Alabama during his tenure at LSU, with the only loss coming in 2002.
Last bowl game: LSU is in their 12th straight bowl game. The first game in the streak was a 28-14 win over Georgia Tech in the 2000 Peach Bowl. Last season, they beat Texas A&M 41-24 in the Cotton Bowl. Alabama is appearing in their eighth straight bowl game, the first of which was a 20-16 loss to Minnesota in the 2004 Music City Bowl.
Fun facts: The University of Alabama SGA (Student Government Association) is known as “The Machine” due to its propensity for cranking out Alabama politicians.

Bowl Games 2011: Part 5

As the “New Year’s Day” games wrap up, here’s a preview of the other five games before the last one next week.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Tuesday, January 3
8:00: Michigan vs. Virginia Tech (Sugar Bowl @ New Orleans, LA; ESPN): Why is VPI in this game? I’m nominally an ACC partisan and even I’m not sure. At any rate, VPI had no answer for Tajh Boyd, and if they couldn’t contain him, it’s extremely difficult to see how they’ll stop Denard Robinson. That’s not to say this’ll be a blowout like those two Clemson games, but I just think this’ll be a more low scoring contest and that Michigan will make enough plays to win.
Previous meetings: None.
Last bowl game: This will be VPI’s 19th consecutive bowl game, good for the 3rd longest streak in the country. The streak began in 1993 with a 45-20 win over Indiana in the Independence Bowl. Last year, they got destroyed by Stanford in the Orange Bowl, 40-12. This is Michigan’s second straight bowl appearance. Last year, they lost to Mississippi State in the Gator Bowl, 52-14.
Fun facts: I call it “VPI” because the full name of the university is actually “Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University” and that’s what old-time residents of the Commonwealth (like my late grandfather) called it. It also provides me a way to be absolutely clear to what “Tech” in the ACC I refer to on this website, which is to say, the one in Georgia. It’s also an important reminder why the answer to the trivia question “how many schools in Division I-A football do not have ‘university’ in their name” is five: the three service academics, Boston College, and Georgia Tech.

Wednesday, January 4
8:00: Clemson vs. West Virginia (Orange Bowl @ Miami Gardens, FL; ESPN): The winner of this game depends entirely on which Clemson team shows up. Are going to get the offensive juggernaut that went 8-0 and then demolished Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game? Ore the one that went 1-3 with losses to Georgia Tech and NC State, got blown out by their in-state rival, and needed a last-second field goal to beat Wake Forest? I’m going to go with the Tigers, but very, very cautiously.
Previous meetings: Only one, back in the 1988-89 Gator Bowl. Clemson won 27-7.
Last bowl game: This is Clemson’s seventh straight bowl game. They lost in last year’s Car Care Bowl (now the Belk Bowl) 31-26 to South Florida. WVU is making its 10th straight bowl appearance. The streak started back in 2002 with a loss in what was then the Tire Bowl (then the Car Care Bowl and now the Belk Bowl) to Virginia, 48-22. Last year they lost to NC State in the Champs Sports Bowl 23-7.
Fun facts: Somewhat famously, West Virginia’s campus features a personal rapid transit system. It’s basically a mini-elevated rail system used to move students around the campus, which is separated into three distinct parts that, due to history and geography, are about two miles apart. In total, the line contains five stations and covers 8.65 miles.

Friday, January 6
8:00: Kansas State vs. Arkansas (Cotton Bowl @ Arlington, TX; FOX): K-State is 10-2, but those two losses came to a couple of the best passing attacks in the country. Arkansas is also in that category. However, Arkansas has trouble against the run, and that’s what these Wildcats do best. I think both of these teams will get their points, but that the Razorbacks will come out ahead in the end.
Previous meetings: Four. Back in 1910, the Wildcats won 5-0, which they followed up with a 3-0 win in 1911. They also beat Arkansas 16-7 in 1926. The last meeting was in 1967, when the Razorbacks got on the board with a 28-7 win.
Last bowl game: This is K-State’s second straight bowl game. Last year, they lost to Syracuse in the Pinstripe Bowl, 36-34. This is Arkansas’s third straight postseason appearance. They lost to Ohio State in last year’s Sugar Bowl, 31-26.
Fun facts: Here’s how you get a stadium named after you. By 1989, Kansas State had the losingest football program in history at 299-509-41 (or thereabouts, it sort of depends on who you ask). Bill Synder has changed all that, though. In his original tenure, from 1989-2005, the Wildcats amassed a 135-58-1 record good for the 10th-winningest team in that period. Of course, the subsequent Ron Prince era was a little rocky, which is how you get invited back to coach once again.

Saturday, January 7
1:00: Southern Methodist vs. Pittsburgh (BBVA Compass Bowl @ Birmingham, AL; ESPN): Both of these schools have been in the headlines so far this offseason, though mostly for the dalliances of their coaches. Todd Grahm left for his “dream job” at Arizona State, leaving behind a locker room of pissed off players. June Jones, meanwhile, was moments away from that same job, but had his offer withdrawn at the last minute. So which is worse: abandoning your team without warning, or attempting to abandon your team without warning and then having it backfire on you at the last moment, forcing you to go back to Dallas and say “no, see, I almost got that other job but I really want to be here!” I guess we’re about to find out, because on paper I’m giving SMU the edge.
Previous meetings: Five, but only one back in SMU’s glory days in the 80’s. SMU won the first game in 1938, and lost 34-7. Two years later the teams were locked in a 7-7 tie, and then in 1942 Pitt won 20-7. SMU then won 33-14 in 1948. They finally met again in the 1982-83 Cotton Bowl, when SMU managed a 7-3 victory.
Last bowl game: SMU is making its third straight bowl appearance. Last year they went to the nearby Armed Forces Bowl, where they lost to Army 16-14. Pitt is making its fourth straight bowl game and second straight appearance in this very bowl. Last year they beat Kentucky, 27-10.
Fun facts: Pitt is famous for its Cathedral of Learning, which is the second tallest educational building in the world. It’s 535 feet tall and has 42 stories, and contains many of the school’s classrooms and meeting rooms.

Sunday, January 8
9:00: Arkansas State vs. Northern Illinois (godaddy.com Bowl @ Mobile, AL; ESPN): This is almost required viewing, just for the offensive fireworks alone. (Don’t let Arkansas State’s 20th ranked defense fool you.) I’d say something along the lines of “well, NIU’s rushing attack should let them use up the clock” except that they won a game 63-60 earlier this year without the aid of any overtime periods. I think in the end the Huskies’ offense will just be too potent.
Previous meetings: As ASU began their transition back to Division I-A, the two teams met 7 straight times starting in 1990. Based on that, it’s not too surprising the Huskies won the first 5 games and usually by pretty comfortable margins. The Red Wolves broke through win their only win in the series in 1995, 28-21 victory, and then went right back to losing with a 31-30 loss in 1996, the two teams’ last meeting.
Last bowl game: Arkansas State is making its first bowl appearance since the 2005 New Orleans Bowl, where lost to Southern Miss, 31-19. That game was also their first ever bowl game. The Huskies, meanwhile, are making their fourth straight bowl game. Last year they destroyed Fresno State in the then-Humanitarian Bowl (now the Potato Bowl), 40-17.
Fun facts: godaddy.com is a domain registrar. I would highly recommend against utilizing their services.