I actually did the first edition of the predictions last week, but I didn’t have time to write up a post. I also didn’t have time to write a post this week, but against my better judgement here we are.
I’m short one team at the moment, but these things tend to work themselves out. There’s a bunch of big games this weekend that will go a long way to determine how this all shakes out, so don’t get too riled up about anything just yet.
The bowls are done and dusted. Thanks to Clemson, I wound up going 21-18 overall, good for a 53.8% clip and back on the right side of being better than flipping a coin 39 times. Since 1999, I’m now 357-298, meaning 54.5% of my picks are right.
That about wraps it up for now. Unless I’m struck by some other burst of inspiration, we’ll be dormant until our annual look at out-of-conference scheduling in the summer.
I’m running at about 53% for my bowl predictions, which means I’ll finish on the right side of 0.500 again this season. Anyway, let’s get to it.
As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.
8:00: Alabama vs. Clemson (College Football Playoff National Championship @ Santa Clara, CA; ESPN): Well, here we go again. And the thing is, we were all right. If you’d asked anyone in the know what the most likely national championship matchup was going to be this season, they probably would’ve said “Clemson and Alabama, and maybe Georgia?” And the thing is, this is going to be close. These teams are obviously the class of college football this year, as between the two of them they have defeated all major challengers.
As I type this on the plane back to the Bay Area (where, for reasons that have nothing to do with college football, this game is being held; also, I live there), I can’t say I really have a very good idea of who will win this one. Both teams have essentially the same strengths and weaknesses. Bama’s offense at peak efficiency is perhaps slightly more dynamic since Tua can run and pass, but Trevor Lawrence is so good for Clemson it doesn’t matter. That said, both defense are suffocating. Clemson got up on Notre Dame because all of their defensive backfield was hurt or otherwise on the bench. While secondaries are not typically where Nick Saban’s defenses make their hay, the Tide will have no such issues with their two-deep. Speaking of depth, though, Clemson’s defensive line play remains the class of college football. Even without Dexter Lawrence, it was just “next man up” and they absolutely suffocated Notre Dame’s offense for four quarters.
I don’t think last season’s semi-final loss will have any actual bearing on this game for Clemson. Also, their offense is just plain better than it was last year, and I think they’ll be able to run (well, let’s be honest, both teams are going to pass a lot) with Alabama and pull out a win in the end.
S&P+ line:Â Alabama by 1
Vegas line:Â Alabama by 6.5
Watchability tier: IV
Previous meetings: These teams have now met 18 times. Despite what it feels like, only three of these meetings took place in the last five years. The series dates to a 35-0 Clemson win 1900. They would go on to record wins in 1904 and 1905, before embarking on a 17 game losing streak with meetings mostly in the 30’s and 60’s. They met in the inaugural College Football Playoff National Championship in 2016, where Alabama won 45-40. In 2017, Clemson finally broke the streak and won 35-31. Last season, they met in the semi-finals. Clemson lost the Sugar Bowl 24-6.
Last bowl game: On December 29, Alabama defeated Oklahoma 45-34, and Clemson dominated Notre Dame 30-3.
Announcers: Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit
And here they are, my final bowl projections.
I don’t have a lot of energy to really do a full write-up, but I’ll give it a stab.
At any rate, this will all be moot soon. From there, it’ll be all about figuring out how the actual matchups will go.
So the penultimate College Football Playoff rankings came out yesterday and they were news enough to me that I felt the need to revise this week’s predictions to adjust for the inevitable four-team SEC scenario. A look at the top 10 of the rankings is all I need to prove my point:
The at-large berths in the New Year’s Six bowls go to the top-rated G5 team and the other top three ranked schools not otherwise included. Since only some of these teams will even play this weekend, it’s likely that we’re looking at something below the final rankings. The only drama is that in the event of a Texas loss, they could fall below West Virginia, which would give the the Sugar Bowl bid to the Mountaineers in the case that Oklahoma is in the playoff.
So this does change my predictions to the SEC bowls drastically, but for the other games not so much.