Bowl Predictions 2018: Week 5 Redux

So the penultimate College Football Playoff rankings came out yesterday and they were news enough to me that I felt the need to revise this week’s predictions to adjust for the inevitable four-team SEC scenario. A look at the top 10 of the rankings is all I need to prove my point:

  1. Alabama (in the playoff no matter what)
  2. Clemson (in the playoff with a win over Pitt)
  3. Notre Dame (12-0 and doesn’t play a game this weekend)
  4. Georgia (in the playoff if they beat Alabama, otherwise in the Sugar since they probably won’t fall below Florida or LSU)
  5. Oklahoma (in the playoff if they beat Texas and Georgia loses to Alabama)
  6. Ohio State (in the Rose Bowl if they beat Northwestern, but needs help to get to the playoff)
  7. Michigan (doesn’t play this weekend, at-large berth at a minimum)
  8. Central Florida (probably gets G5 bid even if they lose to Memphis)
  9. Florida (doesn’t play this weekend, at large berth for sure)
  10. LSU (doesn’t play this weekend, so at large berth for sure)

The at-large berths in the New Year’s Six bowls go to the top-rated G5 team and the other top three ranked schools not otherwise included. Since only some of these teams will even play this weekend, it’s likely that we’re looking at something below the final rankings. The only drama is that in the event of a Texas loss, they could fall below West Virginia, which would give the the Sugar Bowl bid to the Mountaineers in the case that Oklahoma is in the playoff.

So this does change my predictions to the SEC bowls drastically, but for the other games not so much.