Okay, sorry they’re late, but I did the research for the first time this year and learned several important facts. Since these facts mostly affect the CFP and its related bowls, let’s start there.

CFP

First off, my playoff standings are pretty well in line right now. I’m predicting Michigan State will beat Iowa Saturday, in addition to Alabama and Clemson winning, so I have my top four as such:

1. Clemson (Orange)
2. Alabama (Cotton)
3. Oklahoma (Cotton)
4. Michigan State (Orange)

Three of these teams play Saturday with varying degrees of affecting the above scenario.

• If Iowa beats Michigan State, they’re in. This is the easiest.
• Clemson or Alabama losing really throws a spanner into the works. I don’t think anyone really considers North Carolina or Florida playoff material, but who then steps in? If only one loses, then the main beneficiary is probably Ohio State. If both loses, then it’s going to be the Buckeyes… and who, exactly? The only remaining 1-loss team is North Carolina. Would a Pac-12 champion Stanford get in over them, even with two losses? Could a 1-loss Clemson get in anyway? The mind reels.

It looks like right now the Big Ten will be a three-bid conference. I also originally had the Big 12 as getting three bids, but no one seems to agree with me, so I put Florida State in and shuffled things around (this is part of why it took so long).

I also found out that for four of the major conferences, the next highest team from that conference in the CFP Poll gets the conference’s designated bowl, if it has one that particular year. The exception is the Big 12, which sends its second place team, which means that as it stands (assuming they win Saturday) Baylor will be the Big 12’s second team.

I also found out that Florida State is pretty highly ranked, which came as a total surprise to me because a) I haven’t paid a lot of attention to the CFP Poll (since the only that matters will come out on Sunday) and b) they lost to us, so I assumed they wouldn’t be ranked very highly. But their only other loss to #1 Clemson, so I guess that’s working out for them.

As a result, I have the other CFP Bowls lined up as such:

• Peach: Iowa vs. Florida State
• Fiesta: Houston vs. Notre Dame
• Rose: Ohio State vs. Stanford
• Sugar: Baylor vs. Mississippi

Fun, right? So let’s talk about the major conferences real quick.

ACC

Even if they lose Saturday, I think North Carolina will still be the Russell Athletic Bowl’s most attractive option unless Florida State falls to them. From there, most of the wrangling involves figuring out which bowls will want Frank Beamer’s last game. I suspect the Military Bowl wants the Hokies back, but that they’ll get snatched by the Belk Bowl first. There’s also trying to figure out the TaxSlayer/Music City situation for this year, but I’m betting that they’ll swap this year, resulting in Miami going to the TaxSlayer.

The ACC has 8 affiliated bowl games outside of the CFP, and if they do indeed send two to the CFP, then they will be one team short.

Big Ten

The Big Ten is pretty straightforward, given all the restrictions placed on the bowl games over their contracts. (In other words, look for the games to avoid having the same team twice any time soon.) The Big Ten has eight affiliated non-CFP bowls, and by sending three teams to the CFP, they will be three teams short.

Big 12

The only place where I broke rank for the Big 12 was putting Texas Tech in the Texas Bowl ahead of West Virginia, which if they can get a TTU-TAMU matchup will probably happen. The Big 12 will be two teams short this year.

Pac-12

Despite nine conference games supposedly being the death knell for bowl eligibility, the Pac-12 is the only major conference with a surplus of teams this year. Barring a calamity this Saturday, the Pac-12 will only be sending its champion to a CFP game, so they’re not getting a lot of relief there. However, all these teams will play in bowl games, the problem is figuring out where, and unfortunately my research was not very helpful on this front. Currently, I have California, Washington, and Arizona as my extra teams. Those will probably remain guesses until Sunday.

SEC

Without a quarterback, Florida looks dead in the water, but hey, stranger things have happened. (Probably.) Barring a Gator victory, though, the SEC is going to be a two-bid league this year, with Alabama and Mississippi likely getting the honors.

Outside of that, the SEC is still a mess. What does one do with the damaged goods Gators, for instance? I still have them in the Citrus Bowl (the SEC’s top non-CFP spot), but the Citrus could also take Georgia or LSU. Of course, how do to the coaching changes (or lack thereof) affect those two schools’ standing? Based on my research, the TaxSlayer will probably take Georgia or LSU, but the Outback would prefer Georgia or Tennessee. The Vols could end up in the Belk, Music City, Liberty, or Outback. I have them in the Music City, but that could change Saturday night. We’ll see.

Everyone Else

It should have been banner year for the Group of Five, who, for the first time I can, recall, will get all their eligible teams into bowl games. Since a lot of these will be at-large bids, that’s additional revenue for these conferences and schools, so it’s a boon for them. Of course, the MAC is the only conference that’s really taking advantage, with two extra teams (though the Mountain West also has an extra team). A major contributer to the lack-of-eligible-teams crisis is Conference USA, which has seven bowl games lined up, but only five eligible teams.

Indeed, let’s talk about that lack of teams. Currently, I have 75 eligible teams, leaving me five short. I suspect that’s where I’ll end up, but here’s the other teams that could get eligible Saturday:

• Kansas State, if they defeat West Virginia
• Georgia State, if they defeat Georgia Southern
• South Alabama, if they defeat Appalachian State

So that means we’ll need somewhere between two to five teams with losing records. Here are the teams next in line, in order, courtesy ESPN:

• Nebraska
• Missouri (won’t accept)
• Kansas State
• Minnesota
• San Jose State
• Illinois
• Rice

Some of those are ties, but I listed them out in the order most likely to be selected. In general, it’s thought that these teams would still be bound to their conference’s bowl contracts, where applicable. In the most likely scenario (five teams needed), that likely means Nebraska to the Foster Farms, Kansas State to the Cactus (which would have a currently unknown knock-on effect in the Mountain West), Minnesota to the Quick Lane, and then San Jose State and Illinois to the remaining two bowls needing at-large teams (probably the Cure Bowl and the Heart of Dallas Bowl).

They’ve been up for a few days, at the usual place. I was just holding off on posting for two reasons. First, I was hoping to hear what the NCAA might say about their 5-7 eligibility policy, considering that I’m four teams short this week. The mainstream media has started to pick up on there not being enough teams this year, so it was in the news, but I haven’t heard an update. Second, I wanted to look for some bowl news but I hadn’t had the chance. I finally checked earlier tonight, and it was not exactly a bumper crop of updates. Hopefully, we’ll get more information after most teams wrap up their regular seasons this weekend.

At this point, most of the non-CFP bowls are still pretty much somewhat educated guesses, but the CFP picture is hardly clearer. These are the teams I view as contenders, based on my projections through the end of the season:

The top two are obvious in these projections: Clemson and Alabama. After that? I have no idea. My gut is to go with Oklahoma and Michigan State in this scenario, but they each have flaws. Here are the arguments for and against Oklahoma, Michigan State, and Notre Dame:

• Notre Dame
• For: Tough schedule
• Against: Lost to Clemson already, no “signature” win (with a loss to Notre Dame, Stanford might well still be Pac-12 champs but also have 3 losses)
• Oklahoma
• For: Tough schedule, wins over all the other Big 12 contenders (true champion), came on strong the past few weeks
• Against: By far the worst loss in the table
• Michigan State
• For: Defeated two previously unbeaten teams (again: my projections), Big Ten Champs
• Against: Not exactly dominant (led zero minutes in wins against Ohio State and Michigan), Nebraska isn’t the worst loss here but it’s not good

Of course, this is all off the table if any of these teams lose this weekend or next, but hey, that’s the fun part of all this. Stay tuned!

They’re late but they’re here.

First, let’s start with the “Not Enough Teams” watch. This time around, I’ve got 78 teams for 80 slots. I will say that I tried to be a bit more optimistic this time around, and well having more data always helps. I’m naturally not a very optimistic person, but if I had to guess, I think we’re going to make it.

I’ll do my first breakdown of the year.

Playoff
I went with Clemson, Baylor, Alabama, and Ohio State in that order. I would say my jilted team in this case would the winner of the Notre Dame/Stanford game, assuming they win out otherwise. We’ve still got plenty of season to go, though. It’s entirely possible the Big 12’s round-robin schedule will eat its own children again, or Ohio State losing to Michigan State.

The last slot of the playoff controlled bowls was probably the toughest, though. I went back and modified my predictions so that I had Utah beating UCLA and wining the Pac-12 South, which allowed me to slot them into the Fiesta Bowl. The winner of the American is probably still on the fast-track to the Group of Five slot, though the question is if it’ll be Houston or Navy, I’d think. Otherwise, I don’t think my picks are controversial at this point.

ACC
I have North Carolina winning the Coastal, but I don’t think a two-loss UNC (one current loss plus a loss to Clemson in the ACC championship game) is going to get into a CFP-controlled bowl. Otherwise, the picks proceed apace. I have Virginia Tech edging into a bowl on the back of a Frank Beamer farewell tour, even if that means a return to the Military Bowl for a second straight year. Coach-less and 7-5 Miami get sent to Detroit.

Big 12
With TCU’s loss to Oklahoma State, I have them taking a loss to Baylor. I’m not sure a two loss TCU makes it into the CFP-controlled bowls. I don’t think Oklahoma is going to fare well in their backloaded schedule, either. I have Texas, Texas Tech, and West Virginia finishing 6-6. Kansas State figures to just miss out.

Big Ten
Michigan State’s shock loss to Nebraska removes them from CFP-bowl contention, while not really doing much for Nebraska’s own bowl prospects, so that has to be a bummer for the Big Ten. In fact, I don’t have the Big Ten west faring well as a whole, with that sixth win likely eluding Illinois as well as Nebraska and Minnesota.

Pac-12
The Pac-12 is doing its part, especially with probably the best ever team to lose to a FCS team, Washington State, likely to finish 8-4 at this point. (Seriously, who saw that coming back in September?)

SEC
The SEC figures to be the only conference to get three teams into the CFP-controlled bowls, but the drop off does seem pretty stark after Alabama, LSU, and Florida. The best of the bunch seems to be a 9-3 Georgia. (Yeah.) But hey, I did manage to set up a Texas-Texas A&M matchup in the Texas Bowl. (Seriously, it’s just too perfect, which is probably why it won’t happen. But seriously, the Texas Bowl! Come on!)

Group of Five
As I said earlier, the winner of Houston-Navy figures to have the best shot at the Group of Five slot, followed by Temple probably. Undefeated Toledo may have had a shot, but that likely slipped away.

The latest predictions are up, for what that’s worth. Why so glum?

I still have an unprecedented seven open bowl slots. I’m pretty sure I’ve never gotten into November hurting for teams, but this year looks particularly dire. It may be worth noting some regulars that do not appear in this week’s edition:

• Virginia Tech (2nd longest active bowl streak at 22 years)
• Georgia Tech (tied-3rd longest active bowl streak at 18 years)
• Nebraska (perennial power)
• South Carolina (consistently made bowls under Spurrier)
• Kansas State (is the magic running out?)

And those are power five teams that have been to a bowl at least the past five years in a row.

Part of the problem are also the smaller teams. After usually getting an automatic loss or two in the early part of the season, these teams are behind the eight-ball in getting to six wins. Here’s how many I have getting in from each of the minor conferences:

• American: 7/13
• Conference USA: 7/12
• Mid-American: 6/14
• Mountain West: 6/12
• Sun Belt: 5/11

The Power 5 aren’t much better. I have half the ACC Atlantic missing on a bowl game, for instance.

Hopefully, it’s a situation that improves in the next couple of weeks, or else this is going to start getting tough.

They’re late but they’re up. I’m three teams short again, huzzah!

Just in case, I looked up the top 5 in the most recent APR scores in case I need some 5-7 teams. Problem is, it has to be one of the top five in the APR, and no in that group is looking likely to finish 5-7. (Indeed, they’ll all probably finish with much better records.) Again, there is no need to panic just yet, because as upsets happen things will shake out. That said, also for that reason I’m not comfortable doing a full analysis just yet. Look for that after Week 10 of the season, I’d say.