Category Archives: bowl predictions

Bowl Predictions 2016: Week 4

I’m going to avoid any snarky remarks about being better at this than some notable professionals in the predictions business and cut right to the chase.

I’ve always liked ESPN’s Bubble Watch feature for the NCAA tournament, and in some ways, this is a similar exercise. So let’s go conference-by-conference and assess their chances. The full predictions, as usual, are here.

ACC
Win and they’re in the CFP:

  • Clemson (6-0 ACC, 9-0 overall): Clemson closes with Pitt, Wake Forest, and South Carolina. They would have to lose to both Pitt and Wake Forest to miss out on the ACC Championship Game, which would also deny them a chance at the playoff. If they win out, they’re in.

CFP bubble:

  • Louisville (6-1, 8-1): they close with Wake Forest, Houston, and a potential SEC East champion Kentucky. They figure to win all three, but Clemson has to lose twice for them to have any shot at the ACCCG and, therefore, the playoff. They do, however, figure to take the ACC’s spot in the Orange Bowl, so it’s not all bad.

Bowling: Florida State, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, North Carolina

Work left to do:

  • Miami (2-3, 5-4): The Canes finally got out of their post-FSU funk by demolishing Pitt 51-28. They figure to win out against Virginia, NC State, and Duke.
  • Pittsburgh (2-3, 5-4): Pitt just needs to win one out of Clemson, Duke, and Syracuse, and, well, 7-5 looks pretty likely.
  • Georgia Tech (2-3, 5-4): we just need to win one of Virginia Tech, Virginia, Georgia. I’m not sure how good I feel about it, but I currently have us in.
  • Syracuse (2-3, 4-5): the Orange have to win two out of NC State, Florida State, and Pitt. I think they’ll be lucky to win one.
  • North Carolina State (1-4, 4-5): their loss to Boston College really hurt their chances a few weeks back. I like them against Syracuse, but they close with Miami and North Carolina.
  • Boston College (1-5, 4-5): I should probably rank BC higher, because they might have the best chances of the 4-5 teams. Yeah, they’ll lose to FSU, but then they get UConn and Wake Forest. That said, Wake is improved this year BC still has trouble generating offense. If they win in Winston-Salem, it’ll be an upset.
  • Duke (0-5, 3-6): not dead yet, but that figures to no longer be the case after a visit from the Tar Heels Saturday.

Big 12
CFP bubble:

  • Oklahoma (6-0, 7-2): figures to be the Big 12’s Sugar Bowl rep. Too many things have to happen in front of them to make it into the actual playoff.
  • Oklahoma State (5-1, 7-2): I’m currently projecting the Big 12 to only get one team into the CFP-controlled bowls. Provided neither lose before then, the Bedlam winner figures to make it into the Sugar Bowl.
  • West Virginia (4-1, 7-1): it’s a long shot for the Mountaineers to make it to a CFP-controlled bowl. If they beat Oklahoma in Morgantown, they would then need the Sooners to turn around and win Bedlam in order for them to win as Big 12 champs.

Bowling: Baylor

Work left to do:

  • Texas Christian (3-3, 5-4): I like the Horned Frogs the best out of the group we’re about to go over, but that mostly just means I like them to go 5-4 in-conference and not 4-5. But that’ll be enough.
  • Kansas State (3-3, 5-4): K-State figures to make it to 6-6 since they get to play Kansas. Anything beyond that is a reach.
  • Texas (3-3, 5-4): See above, but they do also play TCU at home.
  • Texas Tech (2-4, 4-5): the Red Raiders need two, and they’ll probably have to go through Iowa State and Baylor to do it. I think they can, but it’ll be a close thing.

Big Ten
Win and they’re in the CFP:

  • Michigan (6-0, 9-0): they’ll get two more warmups, but then they’ll have two tough games in quick succession. First, they’re going to Columbus this year. If they get past the Buckeyes, they’ll probably get to play Wisconsin again in the Big Ten Championship Game. They beat the Badgers 14-7 at home the first time around.
  • Ohio State (5-1, 8-1): if they beat Michigan, then they’ll also have the same Badger issue. Either way, the loser of the Michigan-Ohio State game is going to the Rose Bowl.

CFP bubble:

  • Pennsylvania State (5-1, 7-2): since the Nittany Lions don’t figure to lose again, I have them as slight favorites to get a 3rd spot for the Big Ten in one of the CFP-controlled bowls. 
  • Wisconsin (4-2, 7-2): of the three teams atop the West division, I like the Badgers the best to win out and clinch the division (since they beat the other two contenders). That said, it’s an open question how the Committee would treat a 10-3 BTNCG loser against a 10-2 Penn State. I mean, after all, that means all three of Wisconsin’s losses were to some combination of Michigan and Ohio State. It may depend on if and how they lose. Of course, the ultimate chaos scenario is if they win the BTNCG…
  • Nebraska (4-2, 7-2): to even be in this discussion, Nebraska needs Wisconsin to lose to one of Illinois, Purdue, and Minnesota, and then for us to have selective amnesia about that time they lost 62-3 to Ohio State, and then for them to upset those selfsame Buckeyes or Michigan in the BTNCG. Yeah… 

Bowling: Minnesota

Work left the to do:

  • Iowa (3-3, 5-4): Iowa gets to play Illinois, which bodes well for them getting to 6 wins. Which is totally what they’re paying Kirk Ferentz some unholy sum of money for, right?
  • Indiana (3-3, 5-4): they Hoosiers only need to win one more, but it’s going to come down to the end, since they get to play Penn State and Michigan before finishing with Purdue.
  • Maryland (2-4, 5-4): that’s right, the Terps! They fails a similar predicament, though, with Ohio State and Nebraska lined up before Rutgers.
  • Northwestern (3-3, 4-5): by far the easiest schedule, but they need to win two of Purdue, Minnesota, and Illinois.
  • Illinois (2-4, 3-6): at trip to Madison this weekend should end their hopes.
  • Purdue (1-5, 3-6): the Boilermakers would have to win out against Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Indiana. Yeah, that’s not happening.

Pac-12
Win and they’re in the CFP:

  • Washington (6-0, 9-0): their bonafides will continue to improve with a visit from an improving USC team this weekend, but the real drama figures to be in Pullman. Sadly, I see that game has already been scheduled for 12:30 PM Pacific time. 

CFP bubble:

  • Colorado (5-1, 7-2): I don’t think they can make the playoff, per se, but the Pac-12 championship loser figures to make the Rose Bowl (or the winner if they’re not Washington, for that matter). 
  • Utah (4-2, 7-2): see above.
  • Washington State (6-0, 7-2): they can get to the Rose Bowl as Pac-12 champs, but that’s about it.

Bowling: Southern California, Stanford

Work left to do:

  • Arizona State (2-4, 5-4): if they can survive playing Utah and at Washington, they’ll be playing in Tuscon for a bowl bid.
  • California (2-4, 4-5): it’s not impossible for the Bears, but they need to win two out of Washington State, Stanford, and UCLA. Which, again, it’s not impossible, but it does feel unlikely.
  • Oregon (1-5, 3-6): the Ducks have to win out against an improving Stanford and then two straight road games against Utah and Oregon State. The odds of winning all three figure to slim.
  • California-Los Angeles (1-5, 3-6): they have to win out against Oregon State, Southern Cal, and Cal. This doesn’t bode well.

SEC
Win and they’re in the CFP:

  • Alabama (6-0, 9-0): considering the current state of the SEC East, the only game of any importance left on their schedule is the Iron Bowl. Considering the stakes, can we get it moved back to Legion Field one more time?
  • Auburn (6-1, 7-2): yeah, a two-loss SEC champ figures to crack the top four. Such is life.

CFP bubble:

  • Texas A&M (4-2, 7-2): remember, one of Auburn’s two losses is to TAMU, but by blowing it against Miss State they also likely blew any chance of being able to win the SEC. They’re still in a good spot to get a Sugar Bowl bid, though.

Bowling: Tennessee, Florida, Arkansas

Work left to do:

  • Louisiana State (3-2, 5-3): as it turns out, Alabama is pretty good! But the Tigers get to close out with a fading Arkansas team, and if that doesn’t get them to 6, well, they were originally going to play Presbyterian, which, is that really that different from an SEC East team at this point?
  • Kentucky (4-3, 5-4): the Wildcats have only one more conference game, and that’s at Tennessee. I’d say that’s a toss-up at this point, but either way, they’ll beat Austin Peay and then lose badly to Lamar Jackson and company. So their ceiling is pretty solidly set at 7 wins.
  • Georgia (3-4, 5-4): Georgia figure to be in good shape to get to 7-5, which is what they got Kirby Smart for, right?
  • South Carolina (3-4, 5-4): seriously, where does the tradition of SEC teams parking a FCS team the weekend before Thanksgiving come from? Either way, it’ll get the Gamecocks bowling.
  • Mississippi (1-4, 4-5): well, the Rebels are down a Chad Kelly against Texas A&M this weekend. That’s not good! But then they get to play Vanderbilt and Mississippi State.
  • Vanderbilt (1-4, 4-5): Vandy closes with Mizzou, Mississippi, and Tennessee. I figure they’ll only win one of those, but thanks to their APR scores and general lack of enough teams that will be bowl eligible, I figure they’ll go bowling at 5-7.
  • Mississippi State (2-3, 4-5): the odds of Miss State also pulling off upsets against two of Alabama, Arkansas, and Ole Miss are pretty slim. But there’s a chance!

I’ll cover the Group of Five, but in brief.

American
Bowling: Temple, South Florida, Navy, Houston, Tulsa, Memphis

Work left to do: Central Florida (3-2, 5-4), Cincinnati (1-4, 4-5), Southern Methodist (2-3, 4-5), East Carolina (1-4, 3-6), Tulane (0-5, 3-6)

Conference USA
Bowling: Western Kentucky, Old Dominion, Middle Tennessee State, Louisiana Tech

Work left to do: Texas-San Antonio (4-2, 5-4), Southern Mississippi (3-2, 5-4), North Texas (2-3, 4-5), Charlotte (3-2, 4-5), Texas-El Paso (1-4, 3-6)

Independents
Work left to do: Brigham Young (5-4), Army (5-4), Notre Dame (3-6)

Mid-American
CFP Bubble:

  • Western Michigan (6-0, 10-0): the Broncos currently lead… the Broncos of Boise State in the CFP Poll by one spot. I don’t think Western Michigan is truly safe for the Group of Five spot unless they win out and Boise either loses again or doesn’t make the Mountain West title game.

Bowling: Ohio, Toledo, Eastern Michigan

Work left to do: Akron (3-3, 5-5), Central Michigan (2-4, 5-5), Miami (4-2, 4-6), Ball State (1-5, 4-6), Northern Illinois (3-2, 3-6)

Mountain West
CFP Bubble:

  • Boise State (4-1, 8-1): Boise figures to be heavy favorites in their remaining games, but they need Wyoming to lose twice to make the Mountain West title game. The Cowboys do have a game against San Diego State, but they’d still need to drop the ball against UNLV or New Mexico for Boise to have a shot. If Boise makes the MWC title game and beats San Diego State, though, that still figures to give them a better resume than Western Michigan. 

Bowling: Wyoming, New Mexico, Air Force, San Diego State

Work left to do: Colorado State (3-3, 5-4), Hawaii (3-3, 4-6), Nevada-Las Vegas (2-3, 3-6), Utah State (1-5, 3-6), Nevada (1-4, 3-6)

Sun Belt
Bowling:  Appalachian State (5-0, 7-2), Troy (4-0, 7-1)

Work left to do: Arkansas State (4-0, 4-4), Idaho (3-2, 6-4), Georgia Southern (3-2, 4-5), South Alabama (1-5, 4-5), Louisiana-Lafayette (2-3, 3-5), Louisiana-Monroe (2-3, 3-6), New Mexico State (1-3, 2-6), Texas State (0-4, 2-6)

Overall, I was three teams short this week, but that includes a 5-7 Vanderbilt. If this threat continues to linger, we should start seeing some stories Thanksgiving week about what will happen. Until then…

Bowl Predictions 2016: Week 3

The latest predictions are now available (subject to change for anything completely unexpected on Tuesday).

At any rate, things are still pretty sketchy. Even for the CFP-controlled bowls, where I had to put in a 3-loss Auburn for lack of any other teams. Fortunately, second-half Auburn is looking like a pretty good team, but still, it doesn’t feel quite right to have a 3-loss team in these (supposedly) marquee matchups.

I’ll just hit some other thoughts in bullet points below:

  • Boise’s loss at Wyoming on Saturday may not put them out entirely. After all, they’ve still got a win over the probable Pac-12 North runner-up Washington State, which is still a better win than any of Western Michigan’s. Also, I think most would agree the Mountain West is stronger than the MAC. It will really depend on how the Committee ranks them going forward. Boise still has a pretty good chance to win their division, which would also let them face a pretty good San Diego State team in the Mountain West championship game. A win against the Aztecs would probably be better than any of Western Michigan’s wins except maybe the one over Northwestern.
  • I’m still short five teams. I even included a 6-6 Army team (with two wins over FCS teams) and a 5-7 Vanderbilt team (top-5 APR), so I’m really short seven. That’s really the entire potential pool of teams according to the rules. I’m not really sure what will happen if that comes to pass. Last year I still was missing five teams as late as Week 7, but things nevertheless worked out.
  • Suffice it to say, I think there are too many bowls. I’d guess the one likeliest to fold after this year is the Arizona Bowl, which still doesn’t have a real TV deal. Most of the other bowl games that you’d like are likely to fold are probably owned by ESPN. Given ESPN’s own troubles in terms of subscriber losses, that may spell doom for these games, but I’d guess not. Bowl games aren’t very expensive to put on, and there’s not much else going on during the holidays. If I had to hazard another guess, I’d go with the Cure Bowl, which was a game that took forever for the organizers to put together (it was on the “potential new bowl game” lists for years) and has a TV deal with the CBS Sports Network. I think 38 is more reasonable, but as a person who likes bowl games I’d say the ideal number is 30-35.
  • January 1st is a Sunday this year, so the traditional New Year’s Day bowls are split between New Year’s Eve and January 2nd. Nonetheless, putting 3 SEC teams in the CFP-controlled bowls really exposes the SEC’s weak underbelly this year, by which I mean there’s probably going to be 3 SEC East teams in New Year’s Day bowl games.
  • And yes, I did slot Georgia Tech over Miami because even though no one actually involved with the game would want it, I’m sure the Powers That Be (TM) would like the storylines around a Georgia Tech-Navy matchup.

That’s that for now. Hopefully we’ll know more next week!

Bowl Predictions 2016: Week 1

Taking a brief break from work (Monday through Thursday) Civilization VI (tonight) to let y’all know that I uploaded Week 1 of the bowl predictions. I’m hoping to have more time to elaborate on the process here later, but for now, I need to get the preview up.

Quickly though, as per usual it’s still hard tell to anything when there’s still teams that haven’t played six games yet. Right now I’m short 6 teams, even. The bowl predictions page is also a fully updated and correct bowl schedule. The only thing I haven’t pulled yet is the APR standings, which, well, look like they’re going to come into play this year.

Bowl Predictions 2015: Epilogue

They’re no longer predictions really, so it’s more that the full schedule is now available.

I don’t ordinarily follow up on the predictions in this fashion, but I thought it would be appropriate in this case because there’s a lot of stuff that happened.

In the playoff, I was wrong about Oklahoma and Michigan State’s positions, but reasonable people can disagree. What I don’t like, though, is 1-loss Iowa finishing ahead of 1-loss Ohio State in the final poll, sending Iowa to the Rose Bowl instead of the Buckeyes. Considering that they both lost to the same team, Ohio State’s superior statistical profile and stronger best win should have kept them above the Hawkeyes. This had a ripple effect, I figure, on the rest of the CFP field, since Ohio State will head west anyway, sending Houston to Atlanta to face Florida State.

Apparently “Frank Beamer’s Last Game” was not a very appealing factor for the ACCs bowls at all. Virginia Tech fell out of the middle tier of ACC bowls, past the Military (which, in fairness, they played in last year) to the Independence. The Independence also effected a swap with the Cure Bowl, sending Tulsa to Shreveport and allowing the Cure to create perhaps the most depressing bowl matchup of all time.

— Fred Simmons (@fsimmons) December 6, 2015

Just wait the Smiths Bowl will be even more depressing. https://t.co/XNsTXoTpfn

— Matt Hinton (@MattRHinton) December 6, 2015

In general, I whiffed pretty badly on the ACC’s bowl lineup:

Game Prediction Actual
Russell Athletic North Carolina North Carolina
Sun Miami Miami
Pinstripe Pittsburgh Duke
Belk Virginia Tech North Carolina State
Music City Louisville Louisville
Military Duke Pittsburgh
Independence North Carolina State Virginia Tech

As I suspected from my research last night, the Texas Bowl did not get a Texas Tech-Texas A&M matchup. If you suspect that maybe TAMU and the SEC didn’t want that to happen, I’d suspect you’re right. Instead, Leonard Fournette will take aim at P.J. Daniels’s bowl rushing record of 307 yards.

And let’s close with what happened involving the Mountain West Conference. As I predicted last night, the Arizona Bowl was going to wind up matching two MWC teams because their only other option was to get a Pac-12 team, which they couldn’t afford. The conference’s commissioner was none too pleased about this. Yes, the system is broken. However, I can’t help but feel the NCAA let things get this way on purpose. A few years ago, the NCAA got out of the business of regulating bowl games other than a) controlling who can qualify and b) making sure the financials were in order. In other words, if you could afford to host a bowl game, then you can have one. To me, it seems more likely at this point that the playoffs will continue to grow, and that instead of going “back” to 30 bowl games (we’re at 40 now, not counting the national championship game) that the system will be scrapped all together. I think most of us that follow the game are in favor of an 8 or 16 team playoff. At 8 teams, bowl games start to get dicey. At 16, they would be untenable.

This is the 17th year I’ve done these predictions, and I like to think I’m reasonably good at it. For instance, last night when I was researching, I saw one sportswriter for a paper in Louisiana or some such toss off his “final” predictions. They were laughably horrible, even putting teams that had already accepted bids in the wrong games. I continue to do this because I enjoy it, and if bowl games were to go away, I’d miss this a lot. That said, I think it’s where we’re going (and where we should be going), and this year’s fiasco will probably help get us there.