At least, the final edition of the predictions are available. I’ll note that they’re not neccessary set in stone. After I wake up this morning, I will begin scanning my newsfeeds for any updated information as the dominoes of the bowl games fall into place. So let’s hit the highlights:

• I redid a lot of the ACC’s bowl games to reflect two things. First, it seems likely that Georgia Tech will get a bid to the Taxslayer Bowl, 10 years after our previous appearance in what was then the Gator Bowl. (Hopefully it goes better this time.) I was also persuaded by the arguments for the Backyard Brawl in the Russell Athletic Bowl, but if the RAB isn’t then Virginia Tech probably slides up into that slot.
• I’m sticking to my guns with regards to the top-4 for the playoffs: Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, Washington. I think the only argument is for Penn State over Ohio State. Even if this gets weird later today, the damage will only be contained to the CFP-controlled bowls, unless Washington winds up in the Rose. 
• I made some other changes based off rumors, like Houston playing San Diego State in the Las Vegas Bowl. They came form ESPN folks, though, and they own almost all the bowl games, so if anyone has an inside track, it’s them.

That’s all I have for now. I’ve explained my process before, and I’m out of things to explain. All that’s next is to wait.

First, a link.

And now, business. First off, many of these predictions are not as accurate as I’d like for the week after Thanksgiving. While all the controversy is closer to the top of the College Football Playoff rankings, the real uncertainty is due to two teams: Western Michigan and Navy.

Western Michigan, as you may know, are currently undefeated heading into their MAC title game tilt with Ohio Friday night. Navy will play in the AAC title game against Temple on Saturday. CMU is currently ranked 17th, while Navy is ranked 19th. The Playoff rankings are relatively opaque, which is sometimes a good thing (they seem more willing to move teams around based on new data, unlike the traditional polls), but also a bad thing because it makes it harder for us to predict. (And, frankly, we should know what their criteria are instead of having to guess at it.) I don’t think it’s especially likely that a 2-loss Navy would jump an undefeated Western Michigan, but the point is no one knows for sure. The result, currently, is chaos. The worst-case scenario is that the Committee decides that they need more data, thus meaning we all have to wait for Navy to play Army next weekend. In essence, it’s entirely possible that almost every MAC, AAC, or bowl with at-large slots will be unable to fill its spots until December 11th, possibly affecting the bowls that kick off the following Saturday.

In other words, there’s probably a lot of bowl officials going “I love our country, but… it’d really work out out if Navy lost on Saturday” right now. 

Elsewhere:

• I just re-shuffled some of the Sun Belt bids, so the these predictions are fresh as of about 10 minutes ago.
• Fun times in the ACC bowl hierarchy, where some unexpectedly 6-6 teams and a Louisville loss to Kentucky have shuffled things up. Let’s just go down the list:
• Clemson’s in the playoff if they beat Virginia Tech, nothing’s changed there. They’ll be either a 2 or 3 seed if they’re in, I think.
• Me, and just about everyone else, is now putting Florida State in the Orange Bowl over Louisville. Look, I don’t agree with it, but maybe the Cardinals just should’ve taken care of business at home.
• Since four Big Ten teams are going to get into the CFP-controlled bowls, one of them is going to be in the Orange Bowl. And if one of them is in the Orange Bowl, then an ACC team gets in the Citrus Bowl. So that’s where Louisville will wind up if they miss out on the Orange Bowl.
• The Russell Athletic Bowl gets the first ACC selection after that mess, and I think they’ll take the top team on the board, Virginia Tech.
• Next up is the ACC mid-tier consisting of the Taxslayer Bowl (probably no Music City this year), Belk Bowl, Sun Bowl, and Pinstripe Bowl. Right now, I’m going with the obvious geographic fits for the Pinstripe (Pittsburgh), Belk (North Carolina) and Taxslayer (Miami). So that leaves the Sun to pick from 8-4 Georgia Tech and the ACC’s three 6-6 teams. I’m going with the Jackets for that one. About the only thing that I think could change is Tech to the Taxslayer and Miami to the Sun, but that’s about it.
• As with last year, it’s basically impossible to predict where the 5-7 teams will end up. We can, however, pretty safely say a bowl eligible 6-7 Hawaii will end up at the Hawaii Bowl, but it’s not official yet. Here are your potential APR 5-7 teams, in priority order:
• North Texas
• Texas/Mississippi State
• Northern Illinois

That’s about it for now. Stay tuned Saturday night, when the last predictions will go up before we transition to game previews. (Hopefully.)

The new predictions are now up.

Provided I did the math correctly, there are currently 65 bowl eligible teams. That means we need 15 more, but where will they come from? Let’s list out every team on the cusp.

I’ll just go in order of the ESPN standings page.

1. Southern Methodist (5-6): The Mustangs have to play at Navy this Saturday, the odds of them getting to 6-6 are pretty slim.
2. North Carolina State (5-6): They play North Carolina on Friday, which isn’t impossible for the Wolfpack, but again, I’m not feeling good about it.
3. Texas Christian (5-5): TCU still has two games to play, against Texas and Kansas State. I think I’ll win one but not the other, with my money on Texas.
4. Texas (5-6): Since I have TCU beating Texas, well, that pretty much knocks the Longhorns out. Shouldn’t have lost to Kansas!
5. Indiana (5-6): If only all of the above teams could get to play Purdue with bowl eligibility on the line! I like the Hoosiers chances.
6. Maryland (5-6): See above, but replace “Purdue” with “Rutgers”.
7. Northwestern (5-6): See above, but replace “Rutgers” with “Illinois”.
8. Texas-San Antonio (5-6): The Roadrunners appear to be pretty evenly matched with Charlotte, so it could be kind of a tossup. I’m giving UTSA the edge, though.
9. North Texas (5-6): So the Mean Green wrap up with UTEP, which is two wins worse in C-USA than North Texas but not that obviously worse. I’m still giving them a slight edge.
10. Southern Mississippi (5-6): The Golden Eagles will play Louisiana Tech on Friday, and I just can’t favor USM over LaTech.
11. Army (6-5): Army played two FCS teams this year, so one of the wins doesn’t count toward bowl eligibility, so if they lose to Navy (as predicted) in a few weeks then their record for bowl eligibility will actually be 5-6. That said, they’d almost certainly get picked as a 6-6 team, if they want to.
12. Arizona State (5-6): The Sun Devils will play their arch-rivals Friday night, but they should prevail. 
13. Vanderbilt (5-6): The Commodores will end their season against Tennessee, but as one of the schools in the APR Top 5 they’ll almost certainly get a bid at 5-7.
14. Mississippi (5-6): I suspect Ole Miss are slight favorites in the Egg Bowl, and I imagine they’d get in at 5-7, but still, it’d make everything a lot easier if they win like they’re supposed to.
15. South Alabama (5-5): USA only needs to win one of their two remaining games against Idaho and New Mexico State, which, well, they should be able to win one of those.

So, yeah, that’s exactly 15 teams, and the odds of all of them winning over the next two weeks are probably somewhere near zero. I have 9 of them as legitimate favorites, so that would still leave us, and everyone, short 6 teams. I supposed it’s entirely possible all of these teams get bids, but so far I haven’t done a lot of research for the potential 5-7 teams (other than Army and Vanderbilt).

In this week’s edition, I also started doing Internet research to try to figure out what teams are favored to go where, but with so much uncertainty it’s difficult right now. Next week should be a little more fruitful.

Get ’em while they’re… only a couple days old?

Anyway, yes, at lot of stuff happened, but frankly most of the scenarios I outlined last week are still in play. Really, most of the changes you see in this week’s predictions are because of two things. First, Texas A&M lost to Ole Miss. Second, Auburn lost to Georgia. So long, the SEC’s best hope of getting three teams into the CFP-controlled bowls! (TAMU could still do it, but I don’t see them beating LSU at this point.) Of course, that leaves me in the rather uncomfortable position of putting four (4!) Big Ten teams in those selfsame bowl games, so… check back next week when I hopefully have something more reasonable.