Bowl Predictions 2015: Week 6

They’ve been up for a few days, at the usual place. I was just holding off on posting for two reasons. First, I was hoping to hear what the NCAA might say about their 5-7 eligibility policy, considering that I’m four teams short this week. The mainstream media has started to pick up on there not being enough teams this year, so it was in the news, but I haven’t heard an update. Second, I wanted to look for some bowl news but I hadn’t had the chance. I finally checked earlier tonight, and it was not exactly a bumper crop of updates. Hopefully, we’ll get more information after most teams wrap up their regular seasons this weekend.

At this point, most of the non-CFP bowls are still pretty much somewhat educated guesses, but the CFP picture is hardly clearer. These are the teams I view as contenders, based on my projections through the end of the season:

The top two are obvious in these projections: Clemson and Alabama. After that? I have no idea. My gut is to go with Oklahoma and Michigan State in this scenario, but they each have flaws. Here are the arguments for and against Oklahoma, Michigan State, and Notre Dame:

  • Notre Dame
    • For: Tough schedule
    • Against: Lost to Clemson already, no “signature” win (with a loss to Notre Dame, Stanford might well still be Pac-12 champs but also have 3 losses)
  • Oklahoma
    • For: Tough schedule, wins over all the other Big 12 contenders (true champion), came on strong the past few weeks
    • Against: By far the worst loss in the table
  • Michigan State
    • For: Defeated two previously unbeaten teams (again: my projections), Big Ten Champs
    • Against: Not exactly dominant (led zero minutes in wins against Ohio State and Michigan), Nebraska isn’t the worst loss here but it’s not good

Of course, this is all off the table if any of these teams lose this weekend or next, but hey, that’s the fun part of all this. Stay tuned!