Well, the CFP was destroyed once again by an onslaught of upsets. The falls of Auburn, Texas, and California were all noteworthy, but the worst came at Washington, where Stanford overcame a ratings margin over 16 points for the first time in the history of CFP. Looks like I’m gonna have to narrow my gimmees a little bit. No surprise, Notre Dame did not fall to Air Force, and Florida State didn’t win, either. Oh yeah, and Connecticut beat Pittsburgh on a gutsy two-point conversion in double overtime. Connecticut?

Six gimmees this weekend: Wisconsin/Buffalo, Navy/Temple, Georgia Tech/Duke, Boise State/Utah State, BYU/New Mexico, and LSU/Ole Miss. Close matchups to watch: Pittsburgh is picked over West Virginia by the tip of a nose, Cincinnati is not that far behind 10-0 Rutgers, and Wake Forest has only a slight edge on Virginia Tech, even with the home field bonus. Oh, and Ohio State is up 9.3 points on Michigan. Just thought I’d throw that in there.

You can read the rest of the predictions of Tito’s system at http://tito.asimweb.org/cfp/week12.html. Here’s hoping the last four weeks of the season are kind to the CFP’s record.

Last weekend, Louisville was poised to win the rest of its games and finish third in the BCS standings. The debate raged over whether an undefeated Big East team should be ranked above a one-loss team from one of the other six major conferences (the answer, in my opinion, is no; see my last article for an explanation). When Rutgers beat the Cardinals Thursday night, a crowd of one-loss’ers and the undefeated Scarlet Knights all looked like they had a chance at reaching the title game. How would the BCS successfully rank this many good teams? The system everyone loves to hate looked like it was going to reach a new low of confusion.

Then, the unthinkable happened: three of the teams in the top ten of the BCS standings lost to unranked opponents.

First, Auburn was dominated at home by Georgia, whose 37-15 romp of the Tigers was a perfect storm of sorts. Stafford displayed confidence at quarterback, while Cox completed as many passes to Bulldogs as he did to Tigers (four to each group, out of twelve attempts). Auburn’s defense, which my friend Kyle compared to a block of Swiss cheese, was finally exposed as hideous. Punter Kody Bliss had a serious off-day. Wide receiver Courtney Taylor led the Tigers in rushing with 51 yards. “It isn’t good when your wide receiver is your leading rusher,” said tailback Brad Lester. Agreed.

Later in the day, California fell at Arizona, 20-24. The Bears outproduced the Wildcats 356-262, but three California turnovers and two fourth-down conversions by Arizona made the upset possible. I never thought California was all that amazing, but to see them fall like this is a bit surprising. Perhaps there is more parity in the Pac-10 than SEC fans like myself give it credit for. (What am I thinking? Of course not.) At Kansas State, another Wildcats team upset Texas. On the Longhorns’ first drive, star freshman quarterback Colt McCoy was injured underneath a pile of players. Unfortunately for Texas, the Longhorns’ defense couldn’t slow down the Wildcats enough for the offense to outscore them.

Here’s Chris Fowler praying that I wouldn’t expose ESPN’s defense of the Big East as unreasonable. Nice try, Chris.

Even if Rutgers had a halfway respectable schedule, I seriously doubt they could muscle their way to second place of the undefeated/one-loss heap. Texas A&M doesn’t have the defense to stop Texas in Austin, and the Longhorns won’t lose to the Big 12 North champion, either. Florida, Arkansas, and Auburn are in a weird SEC triangle that will produce at least one one-loss team. Since those four teams are all above Rutgers in the BCS standings, even a decisive victory at West Virginia couldn’t put the Knights into the title game. And I didn’t even mention the possibility of an Ohio State/Michigan rematch.

They haven’t been as dominant in the ACC, but the departure of Miami, Virginia Tech, and Boston College left the Big East with nothing more than a few posers and a bunch of nobodies. If you look at their records, Rutgers, Louisville, and West Virginia don’t look so great after all.

Considering that it was the beginning of a two-week lead-in to Michigan’s visit to Ohio State, last weekend was pretty good. The best game of the day was probably LSU at Tennessee, two teams that had little to play for but pride and an unlikely BCS berth. JaMarcus Russell was super-clutch in the final drive of the game. The senior delivered a bullet to Early Doucet (who was right on time, nyuk nyuk nyuk) for the winning touchdown with nine seconds remaining.

Ohio State and Michigan both survived scares against much lesser opponents. Who would have thought that Illinois and Ball State could give the top two teams in the country a run for their money? The Buckeyes and Wolverines will probably pummel Northwestern and Indiana to make up for last weekend’s embarrassment. In other Big Ten (Eleven?) news, Joe Paterno is still alive and well after being knocked over by a Nittany Lion receiver Saturday. If any complications do arise, Penn State won’t need him to coach their weekend romp of Temple.

The Pac-10 is looking much more interesting than it has the last three years. If USC loses its first home game in a while to Oregon, then Cal can coast to the conference championship, win at USC or not. (I doubt 4-5 Arizona or 0-9 Stanford will pose any serious problems for the Bears.) The Big East is unsettled, too. Louisville beat West Virginia 44-34 in a battle of running and passing offenses. Hopefully, the Cardinals will lose to Rutgers this Saturday. If they don’t, I’m praying for a Ohio State/Michigan rematch in January.

In the ACC, Maryland and Wake Forest pulled off rather exciting upsets against Clemson and Boston College, respectively. Although both are in the driver’s seat of the ACC Atlantic Division, neither is guaranteed a trip to face Georgia Tech in December. The Terrapins and Demon Deacons have some work to do before their November 25 showdown. Maryland hosts Miami, then travels to Boston College. Wake Forest travels to Florida State before hosting Virginia Tech.

The ACC isn’t the only conference with a weird divison race. Florida clenched the East with a win over Vanderbilt, since Tennessee lost twice and Georgia underwent self-destruction. This year’s incarnation of the Oldest Rivalry in the South, the Auburn/Georgia game, is actually set to kick off at 11:30 AM Central. It’s not even on CBS; it’s on Lincoln Financial Sports. If that’s not an indication of how bad Georgia is, I don’t know what is. I’m hoping Auburn doesn’t completely embarrass themselves by losing to the Bulldogs.

Elsewhere in the SEC, LSU is preparing to destroy Alabama in Baton Rouge. Last year, the Tigers went to Tuscaloosa and exposed the #3 Crimson Tide squad as overrated. This year, there’s nothing to expose. (Losing to 3-7 Mississippi State makes your strength pretty obvious.) Tennessee goes to Arkansas to find out if the Razorbacks are really a new conference power. The Vols need to win to keep Auburn’s SEC (and probably national) championship hopes alive. I bet Kenton $5 that Arkansas would lose the two games required for Auburn to win the West, so you know I’ll be watching this game when I get out of Jordan-Hare.

Arkansas could have lost last weekend, but South Carolina threw away their chance. On the last play of the first half, two Gamecock defenders bounced a pass into the hands of Marcus Monk for a Razorback touchdown. Later, the Gamecock defense seemed unable to defend Monk, who might as well have had a target on his jersey whenever Casey Dick was in the pocket. Down 20-26 late in the fourth, Blake Mitchell began what looked to be a comeback drive, but a quick switch to zone by the Razorback secondary tricked him into throwing an interception.

Just one more week until the three week stretch of rivalries and conference championships begins. I’m excited to see how this season ends, and I think the finale will be worth the wait.

Last weekend, the CFP posted a dismal 38-17 record, lowering the year-to-date percentage to 74.8%. Many of the mispredicted games had margins over ten points. However, the CFP did manage to correctly pick Kentucky over Georgia.

This weekend, some repeat offenders have a chance at redemption. Michigan State, Clemson, Arkansas, Maryland, and Texas A&M have all tripped up the CFP, some more than once. Other teams, like Air Force and Florida State, seem doomed to fail once more. Those two were picked to beat Notre Dame and Wake Forest, respectively. Six teams are favored by ratings margins greater than sixteen points, the most gimmees I’ve had so far this season; Virginia Tech, Penn State, Washington, Nevada, Boston College, and Hawaii are all but guaranteed victories over their opponents.

Well, that’s all I have for this week’s CFP report. You can read the rest of this week’s predictions at http://tito.asimweb.org/cfp/week11.html.