Author Archives: ASimPerson

Bowl Predictions 2023: Week 2

They’re actually here this time, and fully filled out even!

Let’s talk a little about the process. What I do is examine each team’s remaining schedule and roughly source based on their projected final record. In the past, I used to just sort of wing it, but these days I use SP+ to determine the winners and losers. SP+ is very predictive, but that does mean I don’t really account for upsets until they happen. So it’s common that I’ll be short a bunch of teams, but the gaps are filled in a bit as upsets occur.

This week I was nine teams short which means that NCAA Division I Bylaw 18.7.2 applies. Here’s a summary of how eligible (or “deserving” in NCAA-speak) teams are determined:

  1. You finish with a .500 record or better in games against FBS teams and no more than 1 FCS team (that gives enough scholarships).
  2. You would’ve finished with a .500 record or better, but you lost the conference title game (aka the “UCLA and Georgia Tech” rule).

So that got me to 72 bowl eligible teams. The problem is that there are 40 bowl games, so I need 80. What’s a guy to do? Well, turns out the NCAA thought of that. Here’s the deal:

  1. You can count 1 FCS win, even if that FCS school didn’t give out enough scholarships.
  2. If you played 13 games and finished with a 6-7 record.
  3. You’re a team that’s in its final year of reclassifying from FCS to FBS. Currently only James Madison fits this criteria.
  4. From then on, we go by Academic Progress Rate, or APR.

What APR is (or isn’t) doesn’t matter much for our purposes. What matters is that we can essentially use to find more teams.

It took some doing, but I got there. Again, check out the page for all the games. I’ll discuss the process more next week as well.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 10

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Notre Dame @ Clemson (ABC): I’m on the road and so this may be short. But yeah, Clemson got an all-time call-in show performance by Dabo Swinney earlier this week. Generally speaking,  I view that as a reason to go with Notre Dame.
  • Kansas State @ Texas (FOX): I think Texas has enough firepower to win this one, which is good, because they really need to take care of business.
  • Ohio State @ Rutgers (CBS): Buckeyes all the way here.
  • Texas A&M @ Mississippi (ESPN): Are to the point of the season yet where Ole Miss drops a game because Lane is too busy trying to get another job? Not yet? Okay.
  • Arkansas @ Florida (ESPN2): The Hogs are still limited by their lack of offense, and even with a coordinator change I don’t see things going much better against the Gators.
  • Nebraska @ Michigan State (FS1): I’m actually going to pick Nebraska? Man that feels weird.
  • Wisconsin @ Indiana (BTN): Wisky all the way here.
  • Jacksonville State @ South Carolina (ESPNU): Jax State is having a first great season in FBS. But the Gamecocks are still going to win.
  • Connecticut @ Tennessee (SEC): Vols.
  • Campbell @ North Carolina (ACCN)

2:00:

  • Georgia Tech @ Virginia (The CW): Okay, so at this point we’re going to keep the every other week thing right? (Looks at remaining schedule.) Right?
  • Arizona State @ Utah (Pac12): Utah is good but I think they’re more or less out of bodies. I’ll take the Sun Devils.
  • Navy @ Temple (ESPN+)

2:30: Army vs. Air Force (@Denver, CO; CBSSN): Army just doesn’t have the juice this year, which should allow the Falcons to cruise to the Commander-in-Chief’s trophy.

3:00:

  • Florida Atlantic @ Alabama-Birmingham (ESPN+)
  • South Florida @ Memphis (ESPN+)
  • Texas-San Antonio @ North Texas (ESPN+)
  • Louisiana @ Arkansas State (ESPN+)

3:30:

  • Missouri @ Georgia (CBS): Like many Georgia games this year, a seemingly gettable UGA squad will make one of their better opponents look silly.
  • Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State (“Bedlam”; ABC): Provided I don’t become the God-Emporer of College Football in the near future, this is the last Bedlam for a while. The joke, of course, is that “anything can happen in Bedlam: Oklahoma can win by a little, a lot, or a medium amount”. And the overall series record for this game reflects that. (91-17-7 OU, btw.) And, yet, despite the joke, I think after OU’s stumble in Lawrence last weekend anything can happen. And you know that as the jilted partner her, Stillwater is going to be up for it. So what the hell, let’s take the Pokes.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Maryland (FOX): Presumably Earth, Wind, and Fire is playing on loop in the Maryland football building.
  • Florida State @ Pittsburgh (ESPN): The Superweapon is presumably too depleted to knock off FSU here.
  • James Madison @ Georgia State (ESPN2): JMU all the way.
  • Central Florida @ Cincinnati (FS1): Well, I guess UCF will finally get a Big 12 win.
  • Illinois @ Minnesota (BTN): The Illni defense is going to just stuff the Gophers into a locker.
  • Tulane @ East Carolina (ESPNU): The Green Wave will take care of business here.
  • Virginia Tech @ Louisville (ACCN): I didn’t expect to even give the Hokies a chance, but here we are. I think the toothéd birds can get back in track here though.
  • Iowa vs. Northwestern (@Chicago, IL; Peacock)
  • Merrimack @ Massachusetts (ESPN+)
  • Houston @ Baylor (ESPN+)
  • Coastal Carolina @ Old Dominion (ESPN+)

4:00:

  • Auburn @ Vanderbilt (SEC): LIGHTNING ROUND. Tigers!
  • Louisiana-Monroe @ Southern Mississippi (ESPN+)
  • Charlotte @ Tulsa (ESPN+)

5:00: Georgia Southern @ Texas State (ESPN+)

5:30: California @ Oregon (Pac12): Ducks!

6:00:

  • Marshall @ Appalachian State (NFLN): Herd.
  • Louisiana Tech @ Liberty (CBSSN): Flames.
  • Nevada-Las Vegas @ New Mexico (MWN)
  • Middle Tennessee State @ New Mexico State (ESPN+)

7:00:

  • Brigham Young @ West Virginia (FOX): ‘Neers.
  • Kansas @ Iowa State (ESPN): Jayhawks?
  • Utah State @ San Diego State (FS1): Aztecs?

7:30:

  • Washington @ Southern California (ABC): Oh my goodness this game. Will UDub get enough stops? Becuase they might put up 80, but they’ll need to stop Caleb Williams and company at least once. I like the Huskies.
  • Purdue @ Michigan (NBC): Wolverines.
  • Southern Methodist @ Rice (ESPNU): Ponies.
  • Kentucky @ Mississippi State (SEC): Wildcats.

7:45: Louisiana State @ Alabama (CBS): Tide.

8:00: Miami @ North Carolina State (ACCN): Cane’s?

9:00:

  • Stanford @ Washington State (Pac12): Cougs!
  • Western Kentucky @ Texas-El Paso (ESPN+)

10:00:

  • Oregon State @ Colorado (ESPN): Beavers!
  • Boise State @ Fresno State (CBSS): Fresno.

10:30: California-Los Angeles @ Arizona (FS1): Bruins?

 

This Weekend in College Football: Week 9

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Florida State @ Wake Forest (ABC): FSU still looks like the best team in the ACC, and I don’t think Wake is going to do anything to dissuade me.
  • Oklahoma @ Kansas (FOX): Kansas has been fine without Jaylon Daniels, but I’m not sure they’ve been fine enough to be at Oklahoma.
  • Indiana @ Pennsylvania State (CBS): Okay, so, Penn State’s going to win this one. That’s basically a given. The real intrigue is when they play Michigan, to see if that is finally the time the Nittany Lions can actually beat an opponent at or above their level.
  • South Carolina @ Texas A&M (ESPN): Is Jimbo in trouble yet? It’s unclear! I guess A&M will win this one, but I think it’s kind of damning that I’m not sure.
  • Houston @ Kansas State (ESPN2): Houston finally won a Big 12 game two weeks ago, but, well, K-State figures to send them straight back to the Misery Zone.
  • West Virginia @ Central Florida (FS1): I think WVU gets back on the good side in Orlando.
  • Maryland @ Northwestern (BTN): September Maryland is a distant memory, but Northwestern is bad bad.
  • Tulsa @ Southern Methodist (ESPNU): SMU all the way here.
  • Connecticut @ Boston College (ACCN): BC for sure.
  • Massachusetts @ Army (CBSS): Army, probably.

2:00: Clemson @ North Carolina State (The CW): While Clemson may be heading for 8-4, I don’t think one of those 4 will be NCSU.

3:00: Memphis @ North Texas (ESPN+)

3:30:

  • Georgia vs. Florida (“The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” @ Jacksonville, FL; CBS): I want to believe. That said, Florida hasn’t provided a lot of particularly strong reasons to do so this season, and I’m not sure that will start now.
  • Oregon @ Utah (FOX): Here’s your game of the day, folks. Utah of course is somewhat crippled on offense, and while they were able to make hay against an extremely suspect USC defense, the Ducks don’t have such issues. Alas, I’m pretty sure the Ducks are going to win this one pretty comfortably.
  • Brigham Young @ Texas (ABC): Set aside the tropes: the Longhorns are good enough to win this one.
  • Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame (NBC): It’s not really the superweapon if Notre Dame is already wounded, so I suspect the Irish will win easily.
  • Duke @ Louisville (ESPN): Duke without Riley Leonary looks extremely like, well, Duke. I like the Cardinals here.
  • Purdue @ Nebraska (FS1): I don’t have an opinion about this game and you can’t make me. Huskers?
  • Michigan State @ Minnesota (BTN): Gophers, presumably.
  • Mississippi State @ Auburn (SEC): I shudder to think what the final of this game might be. We all joke about Iowa not scoring a lot, but both of these offense have really been on the struggle bus all season. Auburn I guess?
  • Virginia @ Miami (ACCN): Barring more Mario Cristobal, Clock Commander, incidents, the Canes should win this one easily.
  • Miami @ Ohio (“Battle of the Bricks”; CBSS): The Bobcats are decent, but the Redhawks look like one of the best teams in the MAC.
  • East Carolina @ Texas-San Antonio (ESPN+)
  • Iowa State @ Baylor (ESPN+)
  • Southern Mississippi @ Appalachian State (ESPN+)

4:00:

  • Tulane @ Rice (ESPN2): I remember when we thought Rice might be decent. I don’t think the Green Wave will have any trouble here.
  • Southern California @ California (Pac12): So it might be tempting to think Cal’s defense is going to be enough to affect the USC offense. To which I would say: nope.

5:30: Wyoming @ Boise State (FS2): This would ordinarily be a Mountain West headliner, and it sort of still use, but unfortunately Boise isn’t really holding up their end of the bargain this season. Some of the shine has come off Wyoming but I still like them in this matchup.

6:00: Marshall @ Coastal Carolina (NFLN): Speaking of which, I guess Herd?

7:00:

  • Tennessee @ Kentucky (ESPN): It just hasn’t clicked for Tennessee this season. While they didn’t exactly get blown out by Alabama, it just figures the Kentucky defense is just going to make their lives miserable once again and keep this in the Wildcats faor.
  • Washington @ Stanford (FS1): Huskies, by a lot.
  • Air Force @ Colorado State (CBSS): So this is also a rivalry, but that said Air Force looks like the best team in the G5 and I’m sure that will be true even in bowl season.
  • Troy @ Texas State (ESPN+)

7:30:

  • Colorado @ California-Los Angeles (ABC): The Prime Time show rolls in to the Rose Bowl for a, well, prime time slot on broadcast television. That said, while I don’t think UCLA is capable of doing to them what, say, Oregon did, I think it’s going to be a long night for the Buffs.
  • Ohio State @ Wisconsin (NBC): The Buckeyes did what they needed to do to beat Penn State, and as long and they can still toss it up to a player named “Marvin Harrison Jr.” that figures to continue to be the case.
  • Vanderbilt @ Mississippi (SEC): I don’t see any path to victory for the Commodores here.

8:00:

  • Cincinnati @ Oklahoma State (ESPN2): So early in the season Oklahoma State seemed like they were going to be really bad. It’s been a few weeks now, but they seem to have figured some things out. As for the Bearcats, well, not so much.
  • Old Dominion @ James Madison (ESPNU): JMU all the way here.
  • North Carolina @ Georgia Tech (ACCN): So maybe we don’t play well at home? I’m not sure. Naturally, I typed up what I did about Haynes King last week and then we went out and threw some brutal picks, but I stand by what I said. The way this game has gone the past decade or so means that I can’t reasonably say anything about, other than just hoping for the best on a Saturday night in Midtown where a lot of folks figures to be on costume. (Seriously, Halloween falling on a Tuesday is just the worst.)
  • Washington State @ Arizona State (Pac12): I’m still not buying what ASU is selling, so I’m taking the Cougs all the way here.

10:30:

  • Oregon State @ Arizona (ESPN): Again, the Arizona schools seem to be tripping the top of the conference up, but I’m still not trusting them.
  • Nevada-Las Vegas @ Fresno State (FS1): This is the secret best game of the day. UNLV is… good? As in, their only loss is to Michigan good? That said, this one of their first real tests since then against a consistently solid Fresno squad that figures to test. And on a Saturday night in the Valley, I sort of just have to pick them to win?
  • New Mexico @ Nevada (CBSS): This one is, uh, dire. Nevada did get their first win of the season last week in completely unexpected fashion over San Diego State, but that normally wouldn’t be a reason to pick them anyway other than New Mexico is also somewhat terrible. You could flip a coin in this one, but maybe the Lobos can actually score, so I’ll take them.

12:00: San Jose State @ Hawaii (Team1Sports)

This Weekend in College Football: Week 8

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Central Florida @ Oklahoma (ABC): Most of the new arrivals in the Big 12 have struggled a bit, and UCF has had their share for sure, but they rate pretty highly in several objective categories. Will that help them with the Sooners? Well, probably not.
  • Air Force @ Navy (CBS): The Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy action starts here. It’s useful to remember that while Army-Navy is the headliner, the team that they both dislike more are the Johnyy-come-lately desk jockeys out in Colorado. Unfortunately for the traditional arms of the armed services, Air Force is just plain good this year and should capture the CiC.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Ohio State (FOX): It’s the game of the day, and it’ll probably be over before I get out of bed. That said, for the first time that I can remember in the current Big Ten alignment, I don’t know how this is going to go? Penn State is just good, and I think they’ve got the talent and the beef to go toe-to-toe with the Buckeyes. But the game is in the Shoe, and the scarlet-and-gray have a human cheat code in Marvin Harrison, Jr. I actually slightly like the Nittany Lions here, but this game could go either way.
  • Mississippi State @ Arkansas (ESPN): This is definitely also a game happening in this time slot. Uh, Arkansas I guess?
  • Memphis @ Alabama-Birmingham (“Battle for the Bones”; ESPN2): Let’s recall that this game is a rivalry, and that it has the GREATEST TROPHY OF ALL TIME.


    So yeah, the game itself, it’s hard to say. Is UAB, as much as I’m loathe to admit it with their current coach, kind of good? And what’s the deal with Memphis? It’s hard to say, but I’m taking the Blazers.

  • Rutgers @ Indiana (BTN): Rutgers is probably going to win? They definitely need to, ’cause the schedule after this gets grim real quick.
  • Boston College @ Georgia Tech (ACCN): Okay, so we’ve been laughing about what happened at the end of the Miami game for two weeks, so it’s back to the games. What this team currently shows is that they’re young and somewhat reckless. They self-admittedly did not take the Bowling Green game seriously, but they punched above their weight and took advantage of some completely asinine end-game coaching by Miami to steal a win in south Florida. It might already be safe to say that Haynes King is the best passing quarterback GT has had since I matriculated in 2003. That said, the main thing for this game is focus. This is a game we’re supposed to win. So was Bowling Green. Can we come out focused this time?
  • Western Michigan @ Ohio (CBSS): Bobcats?
  • Baylor @ Cincinnati (ESPN+)

2:00:

  • Louisiana-Monroe @ Georgia Southern (ESPN+)
  • Charlotte @ East Carolina (ESPN+)
  • Akron @ Bowling Green (ESPN+)

3:30:

  • Tennessee @ Alabama (“Third Saturday in October”; CBS): Alabama is still a really, really good team they’re just not… Alabama. You know what I mean. Tennessee is still really good, but they’re not the team they were last year when they knocked off the Tide in legendary fashion in Knoxville last year. Bama’s found something with their quarterback, and even if it looks a bit retrograde, I think they’ll just be able to keep the Vols off-kilter and see this thing out.
  • Washington State @ Oregon (ABC): We love the Cougs here, but as long as Oregon isn’t too down about their game from last week they’ll be okay.
  • Minnesota @ Iowa (NBC): The Drive for 25 is basically dead at this point. That said, I’m not sure that I really want to know anything about this game. The final score is going to be 13-3 Iowa or some such (with the 13 definitely not scored in anything approaching conventional fashion).
  • Oklahoma State @ West Virginia (ESPN): Okay, we’re doing this pretty late on a Friday and we’ve got a pretty action packed weekend at this point, so if something doesn’t catch our interest it’s going to be…. LIGHTNING ROUND! ‘Neers!
  • North Texas @ Tulane (ESPN2): Green Wave!
  • Wisconsin @ Illinois (FS1): Badgers?
  • Northwestern @ Nebraska (BTN): Somehow this game is more dreadful-seeming then UMN-Iowa, because, I mean, at least someone at the end of that one is going to get to hoist a 90-pound pig statue. Huskers?!?
  • South Carolina @ Missouri (SEC): South Carolina isn’t bad, and I’m still not sure I believe Mizzou, but the Tigers handled Kentucky last week, so…
  • South Florida @ Connecticut (CBSS): Bulls.
  • Pittsburgh @ Wake Forest (ACCN): The Pitt Superweapon fired, and so the week after means a baffling, inexplicable loss to a bad Wake Forest team.
  • Central Michigan @ Ball State (ESPN+)
  • Buffalo @ Kent State (ESPN+)
  • Eastern Michigan @ Northern Illinois (ESPN+)

4:00:

  • Texas @ Houston (FOX): It’s finally here. For the better part of three decades, Houston was left behind – the infuriating Baptists of Waco got into the Big 12 and they didn’t, and that was so unfair. The avatar of the ridiculousness of the Big 12 arrangement was always the big bad Longhorns. So they’ve been waiting for this one for a while. The only problem is… Houston is kind of bad this year. The ‘Horns aren’t.
  • Toledo @ Miami (ESPNU): Saturday MACtion! And between the two best teams in the conference, at that! I hope there’s actually some folks in the stands for this one. I’ll take the Rockets, but picking Toledo in the MAC is a bit of the wrong kind of self-fulfilling prophecy.

6:00:

  • Hawaii @ New Mexico (Team1Sports)
  • Texas-San Antonio @ Florida Atlantic (ESPN+)

6:30: Virginia @ North Carolina (“The South’s Oldest Rivalry”; The CW): Tar Heels!

7:00:

  • Mississippi @ Auburn (ESPN): Rebels!
  • Texas Christian @ Kansas State (ESPN2): Wildcats!
  • Texas Tech @ Brigham Young (FS1): Red Raiders!
  • Appalachian State @ Old Dominion (NFLN): Monarchs?
  • Utah State @ San Jose State (CBSS): Aggies?
  • Colorado State @ Nevada-Las Vegas (MWN)
  • Coastal Carolina @ Arkansas State (ESPN+)

7:30:

  • Duke @ Florida State (ABC): So the line on this game the other day was FSU by 13.5, which, like, what? This Duke team is by all indications legit, and FSU has some injury questions. I mean, I’m still picking the Noles here, but come one.
  • Michigan @ Michigan State (NBC): So the biggest news in college football this week is that Michigan football is under investigation for stealing signs. To give you an idea of how spiteful this rivalry is, someone got a quote into the Athletic article about the investigation that Michigan State considered cancelling the game out of concern for, and I quote, “the health and safety of our players”. That cannot possibly be a real quote. It just cannot. The fact that the multi-decade game of flag football between the two schools’ student newspapers was canceled was already ridiculous enough. And, of course, there was the fight at least year’s game that resulted in actual charges. This is going to be dumb. And Michigan is going to win by like 50.
  • Army @ Louisiana State (SEC): LSU is going to win this like 35-34 because Army will go for two and not get it at the end. Book it.

8:00:

  • Utah @ Southern California (FOX): Okay, so USC finally “found out”, so to speak. Now what? The Utes of course play defense like no one’s business, but their offense is bad bad. USC’s defense remains a joke, an obvious liability that seems to rest on the reigning Heisman winner “just figuring it out” that doesn’t work so well when he doesn’t. We saw this game last year, of course, and I don’t think it’ll be much different – USC will probably gut this one out, but it won’t make anyone happy.
  • Georgia State @ Louisiana (ESPNU): Panthers?
  • Clemson @ Miami (ACCN): Tigers.

9:00: Nevada @ San Diego State (FS2): Aztecs.

10:30:

  • California-Los Angeles @ Stanford (ESPN): Bruins!
  • Arizona State @ Washington (FS1): Huskies!