About the Ratings

Each offseason, my brother and I rate every Power 4 team on the basis of how excited you’d be to see that team on your non-conference schedule. The possible ratings are “no rating”, 0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, and 1. “1” is the best, as evidenced by the list of 21 teams that earned a 1 this year: Alabama, Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Indiana (new for 2026), LSU, Miami, Michigan, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oregon, Penn State, Southern California, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Washington, and Wisconsin. Mississippi and North Carolina lost their 1 ratings after debuting in 2025.

Another major change for 2026 is all power 4 conferences having moved, or in the case of the ACC, mostly moved, to nine game conference schedules. This means that connectivity between leagues is lower than ever. It remains to be seen how this affects schedules overall, but I fear that we’ll see teams go the route of the Indianas of the world: guarantee three wins and then rely on your in-conference strength of schedule. (It remains slightly ludicrous that we’re talking about in-conference strength of schedule at all, but that’s where we are.)

Let’s take a look at each conference’s “legit” average:

1. SEC (0.656)
2. Big Ten (0.597)
3. Big 12 (0.391)
4. ACC (0.368)

Compared to last year, the SEC and ACC are down a bit, but there’s no major difference. Let’s dive in. (FCS teams are in italics. “N-” prefixes indicate neutral site games.)

ACC

1. Georgia Tech (2.75 legit, 1 FCS): Colorado, Tennessee, Mercer, @Georgia. Years ago, the Athletic Department Georgia Tech, my alma mater, actively decided to schedule more games against Southern teams that Tech traditionally used to play. (Even after leaving the SEC in 1964, Tech continued to play old SEC rivals until the late 90’s. Auburn is still Tech’s second most played opponent, and Tennessee and Vanderbilt are still in the top 10.) The result was a two-year series against Tennessee, and a rematch of the legendary 2017 opener that we totally should’ve won. The result, though, was this schedule. We may never see anything like this again, though Tennessee, Georgia, and Notre Dame are on the docket for 2027. (Of course, Notre Dame is only sort of a non-conference opponent for ACC schools.)
2. Florida State (2, 1): New Mexico State, @Alabama, Central Arkansas, Florida. Ordinarily, Florida State traveling to Tuscaloosa would be circled as one of the best games of the year. If it doesn’t turn out to be one of the games of the year after it’s played, that may be it for Mike Norvell.
3. North Carolina (1.75, 1): N-Texas Christian, East Tennessee State, Notre Dame, @Connecticut. Speaking of shaky coach tenures, could the Notre Dame game on October 3rd be the end of the Belichick thing at UNC? If not then, how about UConn a month later?
4. Clemson (1.25, 1): @Louisiana State, Georgia Southern, Charleston Southern, South Carolina. I’m not sure there’s enough “south” in this slate.
5. Louisville (1, 1): N-Mississippi, Villanova, @Kentucky. I don’t know if the ACC will go this route, but it’d certainly be nice to see the schools with traditional SEC opponents continue to play at least one other P4 team or Notre Dame each season.
6. Boston College (1, 1): @Cincinnati, Rutgers, Maine, @Notre Dame. BC is projected to be one of the worst teams in the Power 4 this season, and they could well go 1-3 against this slate. 0-4 isn’t really out of the question, either.
7. Syracuse (1, 1): New Hampshire, @Connecticut, Notre Dame. This is a perfectly fine regional schedule.
8. Stanford (1, 1): Hawaii, @Notre Dame, Elon. I knew that Stanford and Notre Dame play each other a lot, but I’m not sure that I realized that they’d played every season since 1988 (except 2020).
9. Miami (1, 1): Florida A&M, Central Michigan, @Notre Dame. Circle November 7th on your calendars.
10. Southern Methodist (1, 1): California-Davis, Missouri State, @Notre Dame. SMU is an ACC favorite, but it’s likely that Notre Dame will have a lot of influence on who gets into the playoff.
11. California (0.75, 1): California-Los Angeles, Wagner, @Nevada-Las Vegas. We’re all in favor of traditional rivalries returning, and while I’m not sure either side would readily admit it, Bears-Bruins really needs to be played every year.
12. Virginia (0.25, 1): Norfolk State, N-West Virginia, Delaware. Florida was once famed for never leaving the the state of Florida in their non-conference. The Hoos don’t quite that do that here, as the West Virginia game will naturally be played in Charlotte, but no one involved is going very far here.
13. Duke (0, 1): Tulane, @Illinois, William & Mary. I think this could low-key be a pretty fun two-game stretch for Duke.
14. North Carolina State (0, 1): Richmond, @Vanderbilt, Appalachian State. NC State’s “quest for 9” won’t be harmed much by this slate.
15. Virginia Tech (0, 1): Virginia Military, Old Dominion, @Maryland. James Franklin is already exerting influence of Virginia Tech’s future non-conference scheduling, but in the mean time the trip to College Park remains. We’ll discuss why that’s a big deal to him when that game rolls around in a few weeks.
16. Wake Forest (0, 1): Akron, Purdue, Merrimack. Wake is only ahead here because Purdue is technically a Big Ten team.
17. Pittsburgh (0, 1): Miami, Central Florida, Bucknell. The vibes feel kinda bad at Pitt going into this season, and dropping a game to UCF, or especially to MAC Miami, would certainly not help things.

Big Ten

1. Ohio State (1, 0): Ball State, @Texas, Kent State. It’s telling that nowhere outside of the ACC you’ll find a “legit” score over 1. This feels kind of like the future, one marquee opponent (that could well be repeated in the national title game) and two “group of” opponents.
2. Michigan (1, 0): Western Michigan, Oklahoma, Texas-El Paso. In addition, breaking the ties when everyone has the same score is definitely very subjective. We definitely prioritize matchups against top-tier programs and other games that generate exciting matchups. This does mean that rivalries that are played yearly, while still endangered, are prioritized somewhat less. We still don’t really know what to do with the Notre Dame “non-conference” games against ACC teams, but they don’t “count” the same way for sure.
3. Michigan State (1, 0): Toledo, Eastern Michigan, @Notre Dame. Honestly, the main thing here isn’t really Notre Dame, it’s that while the gap between the Power 2 (or 4) and the rest of FBS is getting bigger, there’s no doubt that Toledo is still a measuring stick for the Spartans.
4. Wisconsin (1, 1): N-Notre Dame, Western Illinois, Eastern Michigan. The next sort of “tiebreaker” is how many FCS teams you play. In some cases, truly exciting games can cause teams to still be rated more highly (for instance, Ohio State would probably still be number one here even if they replayed Ball State with Illinois State). In this case, while the neutral site game against the Irish will be played at Lambeau, we liked the three schedules above better.
5. Purdue (1, 1): Indiana State, Wake Forest, Notre Dame. Meanwhile, Purdue getting Wake and the Irish at home just doesn’t move the needle much for us.
6. Oregon (0.75, 1): Boise State, @Oklahoma State, Portland State. At a certain point, we just have to go with the numbers, but this is certainly an interesting schedule, even if the Ducks will be massively favored in all three games. No Civil War is kind of a bummer, and it won’t be back until 2028.
7. Northwestern (0.75, 1): South Dakota State, Colorado, Ball State. The Wildcats are opening a new stadium this year, and so these first two games will be the last at their kind of cool, but tiny lakeside stadium. Enjoy it while it lasts, I suppose.
8. Maryland (0.25, 1): Hampton, @Connecticut, Virginia Tech. The drop-off here is pretty big, but there’s definitely intrigue with Maryland-Virginia Tech that, again, we’ll cover when we get there.
9. Illinois (0.25, 1): Alabama-Birmingham, Duke, Southern Illinois. The Duke game has a chance to be more interesting than it appears sitting here before the season, at least.
10. California-Los Angeles (0, 0): @California, San Diego State, Nevada. Meanwhile, a revived rivalry puts UCLA at the top of the heap of teams with zero points.
11. Southern California (0, 0): San Jose State, Fresno State, Louisiana. More on that San Jose State game in a bit.
12. Washington (0, 1): Washington State, Utah State, Eastern Washington. Right now the Apple Cup isn’t on the schedule after 2028. That needs to be fixed.
13. Minnesota (0, 1): Eastern Illinois, Mississippi State, Akron. Miss State-Minnesota might be kind of interesting?
14. Rutgers (0, 1): Massachusetts, @Boston College, Howard. And now we get mostly to the “manageable schedule zone”, or “halfway to bowl eligibility zone”, as Rutgers will almost certainly be entering Big Ten play.
15. Iowa (0, 1): Northern Illinois, Iowa State, Northern Iowa. As always, El Assico figures to be pure Week 2 fun, but it doesn’t move the needle much here.
16. Pennsylvania State (0, 0): Marshall, @Temple, Buffalo. James Franklin is gone, but his scheduling philosophy remains.
17. Indiana (0, 1): North Texas, Howard, Western Kentucky. Indiana, the reigning national champions (a sentence that continues to be true), will still schedule like one of the losingest teams in college football history for the foreseeable future.
18. Nebraska (0, 1): Ohio, Bowling Green, North Dakota. When the most interesting game on your non-conference slate is the one against the FCS team, that’s a problem. If you’re wondering, the Oklahoma game comes back in 2029. (Hopefully.)

Big 12

1. Brigham Young (1, 1): Utah Tech, @Colorado State, Notre Dame. Notre Dame will go a long way toward making or breaking many teams’ playoff resumes this season, apparently. The Irish showing up in Provo for the first time since 2004 has plenty of potential to affect the postseason.
2. Arizona State (1, 1): Morgan State, @Texas A&M, Hawaii. Speaking of intrigue, the Sun Devils figure to be one of the players in this conference in 2026 (though probably behind the Texas Tech/BYU tier), and if they can hang with the Aggies, it figures they can hang with anyone.
3. Oklahoma State (1, 1): @Tulsa, Oregon, Murray State. Oddly, Oklahoma State has made the short trip to Tulsa more times than Tulsa’s gone to Stillwater, though if I had to guess it’s probably a classic “Tulsa is a city compared to Stillwater” thing, and it’s been home-and-away thing since the series picked back up in 2017. As for Oregon going to Stillwater, well, that’s certainly a game that will happen,
4. Baylor (1, 1): N-Auburn, Prairie View A&M, Louisiana Tech. Something feels appropriate about a kick-off game between Baylor and Auburn, but I can’t quite put my finger on it.
5. Texas Christian (0.75, 1): N-North Carolina, Grambling State, Arkansas State. Outside of the UNC game in Ireland tomorrow, not much else to talk about here.
6. Colorado (0.5, 1): @Georgia Tech, Weber State, @Northwestern. Colorado is also in the 2 Power 4 games club, surprisingly enough. And both are on the road! However, the relative ratings of GT (0.5) and Northwestern (0) depress this compared to our own schedule.
7. Iowa State (0.5, 1): Southeast Missouri State, @Iowa, Bowling Green. Not much else to talk about here.
8. Kansas (0.25, 1): Long Island, Missouri, Middle Tennessee State. Sadly, the Border War is taking a break until 2030 after this, but we’re glad to see it back.
9. Central Florida (0.25, 1): Bethune-Cookman, @Pittsburgh, Georgia State. UCF is hoping that the trip to Pitt will be a chance for a statement win for Scott Frost and company, but that is not a given.
10. Kansas State (0, 1): Nicholls State, Washington State, Tulane. The real interesting game here is Tulane (although Wazzu always seems able to make something from nothing), and we’ll talk about the Green Wave more in a bit.
11. Utah (0, 1): Idaho, Arkansas, Utah State.
12. Cincinnati (0, 1): Boston College, Western Carolina, N-Miami. It’s the last gasp of the Battle for the Bell, and given that the Redhawks are suddenly very well resourced (especially for a MAC team) this will be their best chance to win since… oh, right, they won in 2023. Anyway!
13. West Virginia (0, 1): Coastal Carolina, Tennessee-Martin, N-Virginia. We already talked about the neutral site game with Virginia, Coastal probably won’t be very good, uh, next!
14. Arizona (0, 1): Northern Arizona, Northern Illinois, @Washington State. Outside of the trip to Pullman, the most interesting thing here is that Northern Arizona is usually kind of good, and they did beat the Wildcats in 2021.
15. Houston (0, 1): Oregon State, Southern, @Georgia Southern. Rated above Texas Tech purely because of the roadtrip to Statesboro.
16. Texas Tech (0, 1): Abilene Christian, @Oregon State, Sam Houston State. Texas Tech is the richest program in the Big 12, but they’ll have to go to Corvallis, which is about the only interesting thing here.

SEC

1. Texas (1, 0): Texas State, Ohio State, Texas-San Antonio. It is kind of funny that this slate is essentially “I-35 Corridor + the Buckeyes”.
2. Oklahoma (1, 0): Texas-El Paso, @Michigan, New Mexico. Once again, the rankings here reflect the subjective nature of our tiebreakers. But Texas and OU don’t play any FCS teams and Ohio State and Michigan are definitely names that you’d probably put over FSU and Clemson.
3. Alabama (1, 1): East Carolina, Florida State, Chattanooga. You may remember the era when it seemed like Bama played a bunch of neutral site openers. Suffice it to say, their current scheduling is squarely aimed at getting these marquee games back on campus. Next season, they’ll go to Columbus. The Buckeyes make the return trip in 2028, followed by a trip to South Bend in 2029. 2030 sees the Irish visit Tuscaloosa, and if it stays on the schedule, a trip to Bobby Dodd Stadium. You get the idea.
4. Louisiana State (1, 1): Clemson, Louisiana Tech, McNeese State. Tigers vs. Tigers is usually fun, but how quickly will the vibes in Baton Rouge turn if Kiffin drops the opener?
5. Florida (1, 1): Florida Atlantic, Campbell, @Florida State. The next time the Gators leave the state of Florida for a non-SEC game? Currently, a 2029 trip to Boulder, CO.
6. South Carolina (1, 1): Kent State, Towson, @Clemson. I’m on board with the idea that the Gamecocks are going to be pretty bad this year, which means they’ll probably beat Clemson.
7. Arkansas (0.75, 1): North Alabama, @Utah, Tulsa. I keep forgetting UNA is in FCS now.
8. Tennessee (0.5, 1): Furman, @Georgia Tech, Kennesaw State. I keep forgetting we also play these guys. At home!
9. Texas A&M (0.5, 1): Missouri State, Arizona State, The Citadel. See all these FCS games at the end of the list for SEC teams? More on that in a second.
10. Mississippi (0.5, 1): N-Louisville, Charlotte, Wofford. Again, that early game is going to be a huge yardstick for both Mississippi and the Cardinals.
11. Mississippi State (0.5, 1): Louisiana-Monroe, @Minnesota, Tennessee Tech. Here’s the complete list of regular season games Miss State has played against current Big Ten teams: Oregon (2, in 2002 and 2003), Illinois (2, 1923 and 1980), Indiana (3, 1920, 1926, and 1932), Michigan State (4, 1928, 1929, 1946, and 1947), and Washington (1, 1977). Suffice it to say, the Bulldogs haven’t traveled to the west or midwest a whole bunch. And this might be it for a while, as the future schedules don’t have any road trips scheduled.
12. Georgia (0.5, 1): Tennessee State, Western Kentucky, Georgia Tech. Welcome to the “our rival is in another conference!” section.
13. Kentucky (0.5, 1): Youngstown State, South Alabama, Louisville. Welcome to the end of the “our rival is in another conference!” section.
14. Auburn (0.25, 1): N-Baylor, Southern Mississippi, Samford. I yearn for the days when Southern Miss would roll into SEC stadiums and scare the crap out of them,
15. Vanderbilt (0.25, 1): Austin Peay, Delaware, North Carolina State. I can’t think any Power 4 vs. Power 4 game that gives me as much “that sure is a game that’s going to happen” as Vandy-NC State.
16. Missouri (0, 1): Arkansas-Pine Bluff, @Kansas, Troy. Unfortunately, the Border War isn’t enough to get this schedule a little higher, even if this is more interesting than Vandy-NC State.

The Annual Acknowledgement of the Kent State Golden Flashes

Let’s take a look at the top G6 schedules, which is usually a blend of schools that need to “get that bag”, as it were, and the Tulanes and Boises of the world hoping they can score a signature win.

1. Western Kentucky (2, 1): @Nevada, @Georgia, @Indiana, Mercyhurst. Western should have a pretty good shot to pick off the Wolf Pack, but the next two… woof.
2. Texas-El Paso (2, 1): @Oklahoma, Texas Southern, @Michigan, Oregon State. This is actually kind of worse, as UTEP won’t be favored in any of these FBS games.
3. Washington State (1.75, 1): @Washington, @Kansas State, Duquesne, Arizona. Wazzu and Georgia Tech are the only teams to have 3 Power 4 opponents on their schedules.
4. Utah State (1.75, 1): Idaho State, @Washington, @Utah, Troy. Well, Utah State-Troy might be fun.
5. Georgia Southern (1.5, 1): Charleston Southern, @Clemson, @Jacksonville State, Houston. Again, we support fun matchups at this level too, and that game at Jax State is definitely intriguing.

Kent State just barely missed the list this season, but they’ll play @South Carolina, @Ohio State, @South Florida. Right now they’ve only got Notre Dame on the list for next year, but I’m sure they’ll still find a way to get paid.

The Death of “SoCon Saturday” is Greatly Exaggerated

Also known as the “SEC-SoCon Challenge Weekend”, the Saturday before Thanksgiving was once the province of SEC schools playing regional FCS minnows. Supposedly, this has gone the way of the dodo, but has it?

Week 12, or November 21st, the feature the following FCS at SEC matchups:

• Wofford @ Mississippi
• Tennessee Tech @ Mississippi State
• Chattanooga @ Alabama
• Samford @ Auburn

That’s only four games, you say. Well, fair. But still, it’s not a coincidence the Egg Bowl and Iron Bowl schools are involved. (And I am not mad at all about Georgia going on the road to South Carolina that weekend.)

FCS Watch

There are two new members of FBS this season: Sacramento State and North Dakota State. That said, neither will have to go through a transition period, so both are full DI-FBS members automatically. So we’ll go straight to the list of schools that play no FCS teams.

• Texas
• Oklahoma
• Ohio State
• Michigan
• Michigan State
• UCLA
• USC
• Penn State
• Tulane(!)
• Hawaii(!!)
• UNLV(!!!)
• Fresno State(?!?)

Now, for Hawaii and Fresno they do have Sac State on the schedule, but still.

Power 4 vs. Power 4 Watch

A quick summary of Power 4 teams that play more than 1 Power 4 opponent (not counting regularly played rivalries):

• Georgia Tech (Colorado, Tennessee, @Georgia)
• North Carolina (Texas Christian, Notre Dame)
• Boston College (@Cincinnati, Rutgers, @Notre Dame)
• Colorado (@Georgia Tech, @Northwestern)
• Purdue (Wake Forest, Notre Dame)

Averaging the Averages

And finally, here’s each conference’s average schedule rating:

• ACC (0.246)
• SEC (0.214)
• Big 12 (0.1302)
• Big Ten (0.1296)

And that’s that. Let’s go talk about some actual games.