Monthly Archives: November 2021

Bowl Predictions 2021: Week 2

Fresh and hot here.

Here’s the highlights:

  • I still don’t have enough teams, but I’m down to only two this week. I suspect we’ll get some upsets that will help shake things up. I’m still trying to figure out what the APR situation is for any 5-win teams.
  • For now, I’m projecting Cincy into the top 4. I know I’m not the only one doing this, but my logic is essentially that a 2-loss non-conference champ Alabama isn’t going to get in. Normally I would wait for the CFP rankings to be released each week, but I’m trying very hard to get these out before the Tuesday MAC games, so I can only guess at their machinations.
  • Just a reminder, with the number of bowls that are owned by ESPN Events (about half of them, especially pretty much every pre-Christmas bowl) there is a very high degree of guessing to all of this these days.

 

This Weekend in College Football: Week 11

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Oklahoma @ Baylor (FOX): Ordinarily, I feel like I’d say something here along the lines of “well, this is one of the best chances for Oklahoma to lose this season”, but the problem with the Sooners is that that’s been true several times already! I’m not sure what can kill them at this point. I’ll take them until proven otherwise.
  • Michigan @ Pennsylvania State (ABC): I’m taking Michigan here, but Happy Valley still seems like a bit of vipers, even if Penn State still has quarterback issues.
  • Mississippi State @ Auburn (ESPN): It’s been a rough few weeks for the Bo Nix show, but I think Auburn will still prevail here.
  • Northwestern @ Wisconsin (ESPN2): Yeah, Northwestern has no chance here.
  • West Virginia @ Kansas State (FS1): This one may well be close, but I’ll still take K-State.
  • Central Florida @ Southern Methodist (ESPNU): It’s just not UCF’s year in Year 1 of Gus, it seems.
  • Rutgers @ Indiana (BTN): It’s been a down year for Indiana, but I think they can still beat Rutgers.
  • Bucknell @ Army (CBSS)
  • Connecticut @ Clemson (ACCN): Clemson.
  • Syracuse @ Louisville (ACC/RSN): Louisville.
  • East Carolina @ Memphis (ESPN+)
  • Houston @ Temple (ESPN+)
  • Samford @ Florida (ESPN+/SEC+)

2:00:

  • Utah @ Arizona (Pac12): Hey, so I’m hitting the road this weekend and I don’t plan to take something with a full keyboard with me, so I can’t really do this thing justice. So from here on out, it’s mostly going to be the LIGHTNING ROUND. Utes!
  • Georgia State @ Coastal Carolina (ESPN+)
  • Western Kentucky @ Rice (ESPN+)

3:30:

  • Purdue @ Ohio State (ABC): Buckeyes, though they should probably watch out in case Purdue somehow pulls this trick a third time.
  • Georgia @ Tennessee (CBS): Georgia.
  • Miami @ Florida State (“Florida Cup”; ESPN): Miami?
  • Iowa State @ Texas Tech (ESPN2): Cyclones!
  • Minnesota @ Iowa (BTN): Gophers?
  • Alabama-Birmingham @ Marshall (CBSS): Go Blazers.
  • Duke @ Virginia (ACCN): Virginia.
  • Boston College @ Georgia Tech (ACC/RSN): I think I said at the beginning of the year that this was a “put up or shut up” year. And, well, we’re not putting up. Yet the coaching staff continues to deflect blame and not take responsibility. The schtick is getting old, fast.
  • Charlotte @ Louisiana Tech (Stadium)
  • Florida International @ Middle Tennessee State (espn3.com)
  • Florida Atlantic @ Old Dominion (ESPN+)
  • Southern Mississippi @ Texas-San Antonio (ESPN+)
  • Louisiana @ Troy State (ESPN+)

4:00:

  • Maryland @ Michigan State (FOX): Sparty!
  • Tulsa @ Tulane (ESPNU): Green Wave!
  • South Carolina @ Missouri (SEC): Tigers?
  • Texas-El Paso @ North Texas (ESPN+)

5:00: Arkansas State @ Louisiana-Monroe (ESPN+)

5:30: Stanford @ Oregon State (Pac12): By all rights, the Beavers should win this one, and Stanford shouldn’t have any suprises left.

7:00:

  • Texas A&M @ Mississippi (ESPN): This might well be the game of the day, really. I think Ole Miss has the offense to challenge the Aggies, provided Corral is okay. I suspect TAMU will pull it out, but it’s going to be close.
  • Kentucky @ Vanderbilt (ESPN2): Kentucky.
  • Arizona State @ Washington (FS1): Both of these teams are in such disarray it’s really hard to pick a favorite here. In years past it would’ve been UDub easily, but maybe with Lake out that will actually help? Sound as good to me as anything else.
  • Air Force @ Colorado State (CBSS): Falcons?
  • New Mexico @ Fresno State (Stadium)

7:30:

  • Notre Dame @ Virginia (ABC): Domers.
  • Kansas @ Texas (ESPNU): Longhorns.
  • Arkansas @ Louisiana State (SEC): Whompin’!
  • North Carolina State @ Wake Forest (ACCN): Wake gets its second stiffest challenge of the season so far in the game after losing their first own. I think that NC State is actually just good enough to beat them, straight up, so I’ll take them here.

8:00: Texas Christian @ Oklahoma State (FOX): I still like the Pokes here.

9:00: Colorado @ California-Los Angeles (Pac12): Bruins?

10:30:

  • Washington State @ Oregon (ESPN): So this is technically for control of the Pac-12 North, and the Ducks certainly give their opponents plenty of leash. I think they will win the end, but could be dices.
  • Utah State @ San Jose State (FS1): Aggies?
  • Nevada @ San Diego State (CBSS): Aztecs.

Bowl Predictions 2021: Week 1

It’s that time again, folks. The first set of projections are here.

Here’s how this works. Each weekend from now until the end of the season, I project out every potential bowl eligible team. In the past, I had pretty much eyeballed this, but these days I now use SP+ to project each team’s final record.

I then attempt to determine the College Football Playoff controlled games based on their rules and precedents. Remember, my projections are attempting to extrapolate out from now through the last weekend of the season.

For non-CFP games, I attempt to apply each conference’s selection criteria to the bowls they are partnered with. Unfortunately, this is when the science starts to get very, very inexact. With the latest bowl deals that nominally took effect for the 2020 season, almost every conference has abandoned any sort of performance-based criteria for how their bowls are seeded. In addition, some conferences, especially in the Group-of-Five, have ceded almost all control of where their teams are placed to ESPN events, which owns about half of the bowl games.

This makes the call of which teams go where nearly impossible to predict anymore. Nonetheless, I will give it a shot and see if I can learn anything this year that I can apply to future seasons. I didn’t really do bowl predictions last year because half of the games were canceled and many teams opted-out.

An additional wrinkle for this week is that I am short five teams for all available slots. I will work in future weeks to determine what remedies may be available if this actually happens, but in the meantime any game that is lacking a team should have a “???” in at least one of its slots.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 10

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

11:30: Army vs. Air Force (@Arlignton, TX; CBS): So if this is 11:30 AM Eastern, then it’s 10:30 Central. That’s pretty early, but I would imagine that if there’s any group of college students that can deal with waking up early, it’s academy students. That said, I think Army is till the best of the academies this year and I’ll take them here.

Noon:

  • Ohio State @ Nebraska (FOX): Nebraska could well still surprise here, but they’ll still lose here.
  • Wake Forest @ North Carolina (ABC): This is a non-conference game! Okay, with that out of the way Wake should roll.
  • Missouri @ Georgia (ESPN): Speaking of rolling… I think UGA’s best chances to lose now are Auburn and whoever they play in the SEC championship?
  • Illinois @ Minnesota (ESPN2): The Golden Gophers are surprisingly decent this year, and Illinois shouldn’t be able to do much to disabuse that notion.
  • Kansas State @ Kansas (“Sunflower Showdown”; FS1): It’s a rivalry game, but… K-State should obliterate this edition to the Jayhawks.
  • Southern Methodist @ Memphis (ESPNU): Oh, if Memphis was good this year as they’ve been in the past few… but they’re not.
  • Liberty @ Mississippi (SEC): Ole Miss by… a lot.
  • Louisiana Tech @ Alabama-Birmingham (CBSS): Go Blazers.
  • Pittsburgh @ Duke (ACCN): Pitt should be able to take advantage of this opportunity.

12:30: Georgia Tech @ Miami (ACC/RSN): I’ve written a lot about hope this year. I mean, a fair bit of that came during the Braves’s playoff run, which I obviously greatly enjoyed. Regardless, this doesn’t seem like a team that’s getting better, and that’s extremely concerning at this point. I don’t think Tech would make any moves during the season, but this something that will definitely need to some hard questions asked during the offseason.

3:00:

  • California @ Arizona (Pac12): It’s late and I’m tired. LIGHTNING ROUND (unless I have something particularly insightful to say). Cal? Big “oof” from noted Cal alum Aaron Rodgers the past few days though, eh? Maybe it turns out that the rest of the Rodgerses were avoiding Aaron instead of the other way around like we all thought.
  • Louisiana-Monroe @ Texas State (ESPN+)
  • Temple @ East Carolina (ESPN+)

3:30:

  • Michigan State @ Purdue (ABC): Sparty? It definitely seems about right that they’d beat Michigan and then drop one to Purdue, but the Boilermakers kinda did that already this year, so could they do it again? Probably not, but it may be worth watching to see.
  • Navy @ Notre Dame (NBC): Domers.
  • Baylor @ Texas Christian (FOX): Gary Patterson just pulled the “you can’t fire me, I quit!” at TCU, so I’ll take the Bears.
  • Auburn @ Texas A&M (CBS): My heart says Auburn’s gonna win this, but my brain says TAMU. Should be worth watching though!
  • Oklahoma State @ West Virginia (ESPN): Okie State, probably?
  • Tulsa @ Cincinnati (ESPN2): Cincy!
  • Pennsylvania State @ Maryland (FS1): Penn State!
  • Wisconsin @ Rutgers (BTN): Wisky!
  • Colorado State @ Wyoming (CBSS): Wyoming?
  • Middle Tennessee State @ Western Kentucky (Stadium)
  • Rice @ Charlotte (ESPN+)
  • South Alabama @ Troy (ESPN+)

4:00:

  • Tulane @ Central Florida (ESPNU): UCF?
  • Mississippi State @ Arkansas (SEC): Miss State?
  • North Carolina State @ Florida State (ACCN): Wolfpack!

6:00:

  • Marshall @ Florida Atlantic (Facebook)
  • Coastal Carolina @ Georgia Southern (ESPN+)

7:00:

  • Iowa @ Northwestern (BTN): Iowa!
  • Louisiana State @ Alabama (ESPN): Bama!
  • Tennessee @ Kentucky (ESPN2): This is actually pretty hard. Logic says Kentucky, but keep an eye on this one.
  • Boise State @ Fresno State (CBSS): Fresno. This should be more fun but Boise’s just down this year.
  • Oregon State @ Colorado (Pac12): Beavers!
  • Nevada-Las Vegas @ New Mexico (Stadium)
  • Old Dominion @ Florida International (espn3.com)

7:30:

  • Indiana @ Michigan (FOX): Michigan should be able to use this as a salve.
  • Oregon @ Washington (ABC): Ducks, provided they figure out how to not mess around and just win this thing.
  • Texas @ Iowa State (FS1): Texas?
  • Houston @ South Florida (ESPNU): Cougars!
  • Florida @ South Carolina (SEC): Gators!
  • Clemson @ Louisville (ACCN): Clemson?

10:00: San Jose State @ Nevada (FS2): Wolf Pack!

10:15: Texas-San Antonio @ Texas-El Paso (ESPN2): Y’all, this is the hipster game of the week, but for good reason. Sure, UTEP took a loss that week, but still the Roadrunners have to go all the way out to El Paso for game that will start at 8:15 local time. I. Am. Here. For. This. I hope the Sun Bowl is too. I’ll still pick the Roadrunners though.

10:30: Southern California @ Arizona State (ESPN): Uh, Sun Devils, I guess?

11:00: San Diego State @ Hawaii (FS1): Aztecs, but a good wind down either way.

Braves Diary: World Champions

Before I started writing this I took a look at my previous Braves diary entries and then every post I’ve made about the Braves on this site. I wrote this after we got knocked out by the Giants in 2010 about Freddie Freeman:

  • Freddie Freeman (1B): The Braves’s first baseman of the future didn’t do much of anything in a September callup, but the organization really wants him to be ready next spring. He hit well at AAA Gwinett after recovering from an injury filled 2009 that reduced his numbers. If he can hit around .300 with 15+ HRs in Atlanta he would be the best Braves first baseman in awhile.

So, yeah, I think we might want to sign this Freeman kid, he’s pretty good. I think he can satisfy those criteria.

So the original intent of my “Braves Diary” series was to give myself something to do during the pandemic lockdowns here when I could at least write about baseball. Of course, it turns out that my previous job and then things gradually re-opening somewhat got in the way. Either way, I’m really not the greatest writer in the world, so I don’t think it was a big deal that I shut it down. Besides, I still got to gloat when we took the lead in the East and then eventually won it again because, well, that’s what we do around here.

One thing I have said often in the past several hours is that, yes, while the Braves only had 88 wins this was not a case of a team getting hot and lucky in the postseason. This is a team that played like an 105-win team since August 1st. This thing was rolling for two months before the playoffs started.

I was 10-years-old the last time the Braves won the World Series. I’m generally forced to admit that I don’t remember it. I can’t speak to what I was doing at the time, but I sure did like baseball around then so I don’t think it was that I didn’t care. I usually say that the first baseball thing I really remember was Andruw Jones coaxing a walk-off-walk from Kenny Rogers in the 1999 NLCS.

I definitely will remember two things from this World Series. First, I was fortunate to have the means to fly to Atlanta at the last minute, secure a ticket, and attend game 4. We were down 2-1 entering the bottom of the 7th when one of the few (literally) back-to-back home runs in the World Series occurred. First was Dansby’s to tie the game. Next up was Jorge Soler’s homer to take the lead. The main thing I remember from Jorge’s was thinking “well, if it’s not caught, it’s out”. This is because I had spent sometime before that during the game thinking about the very short wall straight down the line in left field at Truist Park, and I had a great angle of the ball off Soler’s bat when he hit it. I didn’t start celebrating until I saw the ball bouncing in the bullpen.

Then there’s tonight (well, last night technically). It was a 0-0 game in the top of the 3rd when the Braves got two runners on, but with two out. Not a fantastic situation for us most of the year, to say the last. But Jorge got the count to 3-2, and then he pounced on a mistake. Well, mauled a mistake. Statcast said it was 446 feet, but it had to have been more. Either way, it proved to be his second game-winning home run of the World Series. For me personally, it was something we needed so badly that I started celebrating as soon as he it, and then my knees went weak. (Fortunately, my couch was right there.) Soler isn’t a particularly ostentatious guy and doesn’t pimp his homers, but when he hit it and started looking at the dugout I knew it was long, long gone.

I was nervous right up until the last out was made. Honestly, seeing Dansby double-clutch as he decided to throw to first after looking at second didn’t make me feel that much better. But there was the ball, secured in Freddie Freeman’s glove (and then his back pocket).

Most of my Braves Diary posts are kind of doom-and-gloom, and this reflects the attitude that this team attracted during the first half of the season. But they did enough to patch the holes in the ship, and some guys stepped up and performed to their potential.

One last thing: I love that this team has fun. I love that Pablo Sandoval and Guillermo Heredia were able to be themselves and keep the team’s sprits up even though they weren’t everyday players. I love that Joc Pederson could be as bad of a bitch as he wanted – if he wasn’t on the team, we never would’ve made it past the NLDS. I love that Eddie Rosario doesn’t seem to have a care the in the world – he’ll just casually hit for a cycle on 5 pitches in the season, and then eschew the chance to be only the second person to ever do it in the playoffs and hit a homer instead. I love that the bullpen was so good, even though on paper these dudes couldn’t hold a candle to last year’s bullpen. I love that Freddie Freeman is sometimes just human. He hit the game winning homer in Game 4 of the NLDS, went 0-for-8 to start the NLCS, and then sort returned to his normal self by hitting to the opposite field after that. I love that you just apparently had to piss Max Fried off to have the most clutch performance by an Atlanta left-handed pitcher since Tom Glavine in 1995.

What a team. What an incredible season. I hope I never forget it.

WE’RE WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!!!!