It’s that time again. I dusted off a program I wrote for last year’s Gold Cup to compute group stage scenarios. Of course, the problem with the program I wrote is that I wrote it in probably the dumbest way possible, so it only calculates results ranging from 4-0 to 0-4 and up to 4-4 draws. In soccer, this suffices most of the time, but then you have teams like the US winning 4-0 and Brazil winning 7-1 and it just messes things up.
We’ll do the best we can, but I’ll refrain from posting the graphs this time.
- Greatest number of points obtained in all group matches.
- Goal difference in all matches.
- Greatest number of goals scored in all matches.
- If two or more teams are tied:
- Greatest number of points obtained in the matches between the tied teams.
- Goal difference in the matches between the tied teams.
- Goals scored in matches between the tied teams.
- Drawing of lots.
- Colombia has clinched a spot in the quarterfinals. They will clinch first place in the group with any win against or draw with Costa Rica.
- The United States will advance to the quarterfinals with:
- A win over Paraguay, or
- A draw with Paraguay and any Costa Rica draw with or loss to Colombia, or
- A draw with Paraguay and a Costa Rica win over Colombia by 5 goals or less.
- See Costa Rica scenarios for more.
- The United States can clinch first place in the group with a win over Paraguay and any Colombia loss to Costa Rica.
- Paraguay will advance to the quarterfinals with:
- Any win over the United States and any Costa Rica draw or loss to Colombia.
- See Costa Rica scenarios for more, though note that in any case Paraguay must beat the United States to advance.
- Costa Rica scenarios:
- To have any chance at all, Costa Rica must beat Colombia by at least four goals.
- If Costa Rica wins 4-0 and Paraguay wins 1-0 or 2-1, then Costa Rica will advance on Tiebreaker 3.
- If Costa Rica wins 4-0 and Paraguay wins 3-2, then lots will be drawn.
- In essence, if Costa Rica goes in a scoring barrage and wins by 5 goals or more, it will come down to them closing the goal differential between themselves and either the United States or Paraguay. In addition, if Costa does wind up with the same number of points, same goal differential, and goals scored as the United States, then they will lose out due Tiebreaker 4.1. Any such scenario with Paraguay results in the drawing of lots, due to their 0-0 draw.
- Haiti has been eliminated
- Brazil will:
- Clinch first place in the group with a win against Peru.
- Advance to the quarterfinals with any draw against Peru.
- Clinch first place in the group with a draw against Peru and any Ecuador win by less than 8 goals. If, for instance, Brazil draws 0-0 and Ecuador wins 8-0, then Peru will break the tie on goals scored (Tiebreaker 3), and this holds for 9-0 and 1-1, 10-0 and 2-2, and so on. If Brazil draws 3-3 and Ecuador wins 8-0, then lots will be drawn. If Brazil draws 4-4 and Ecuador wins 8-0, then Brazil prevails on Tiebreaker 3.
- Advance to the quarterfinals with a loss to Peru and any Haiti draw with or win over Ecuador.
- Peru will:
- Clinch first place in the group with a win over Brazil.
- Advance to the quarterfinals with any draw against Brazil and any Haiti draw with or win over Ecuador.
- Advance to the quarterfinals if Ecuador wins by one goal over Haiti and Peru draws Brazil by at least the same number of Ecuador goals.
- Ecuador will:
- Advance to the quarterfinals with any Brazil or Peru win and a win over Haiti.
- Advance to the quarterfinals with any Brazil or Peru draw and a win by at least two goals over Haiti (this knocks out Peru on goal differential). (See above for what happens if Ecuador wins by 8 goals or more.)
- If Brazil and Peru draw 3-3, 2-2, 1-1, or 0-0 and Ecuador beats Haiti 4-3, 3-2, 2-1, or 1-0, this will result in the drawing of lots between Peru and Ecuador.