Monthly Archives: November 2010

THWG Thought of the Day: 11/22

Once again, it’s To Hell With Georgia week here.

However, there’s not a lot to talk about this year. With an opening line of somewhere around two touchdowns, Tech is currently not a favorite, to say the least.

However, none of that changes the real mechanics of Clean, Old Fashioned Hate. Oh, sure, your state rivalry may have more history. Or your state rivalry may currently be for higher stakes other than bowl eligiblity. None of that changes anything, though.

I will rest today and probably tomorrow, but the usual content should be up by the middle of the week.

And once again, To Hell with Georgia!

This Weekend in College Football: Week 12

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Wisconsin @ Michigan (ESPN): It’s been a comfortable couple of weeks for the Wolverines, with their overtime “thriller” against Illinois and a victory over Purdue getting them back to the 7-win mark, and perhaps a reason to look forward to next year. (It’s winter in the midwest, they need all the reasons they can get when the sky is gray everyday for the next 5 months, don’tcha know?) At any rate, that should all come crashing down against Wisconsin. While I doubt they’ll score 83 again, it will probably be a moral victory for the beleaguered Michigan defense if they hold them under, say, 50.
  • Pittsburgh @ South Florida (ESPN2): Who’ll win the Big East? Who knows. I tried flipping a coin to pick this one but I lost control of it and now I can’t find it. I’m pretty sure that says something about the Big East. Anyway, I predicted Pitt to prevail in my bowl predictions, so I guess I’ll go with them here.
  • Oklahoma State @ Kansas (FSN): Kansas: still bad! Cowboys roll.
  • Virginia @ Boston College (ESPNU): Boston College still isn’t scoring any points, but hey they’ve one 3 in a row and they actually play defense. I’ll take them here.
  • Purdue @ Michigan State (BTN): Purdue may be one of the most battered teams in the country. Sparty rolls.
  • Troy @ South Carolina (SEC): I guess it’s popular in the SEC to either take this week off or effectively take this week off. While I think Troy can still recover in the Sun Belt, they don’t really stand a chance here.
  • North Carolina State @ North Carolina (ACC): I like this matchup a lot, actually. That said, I also still like the Wolfpack a lot here as well.

1:30: Duke @ Georgia Tech (espn3.com): What is there to say at this point? We’re 5-5 and we’re still making the same mistakes that at the beginning of the year caused us to lose to Kansas, and we’re out our starting QB. I think Tevin Washington actually performed well last weekend, but the continuing lapses on defense and lack of execution on offense are extremely worrying at this point in the season.

3:30:

  • Mississippi @ Louisiana State (CBS): Well, since LSU is involved, it’s tough to tell how this one is going to go. Sure, Ole Miss just got blown out by the (2nd) worst team from the other side of the SEC, but this one could go down to the wire. Or LSU wins comfortably. Either way, The Hat should prevail in the fashion that he chooses.
  • Ohio State @ Iowa (ABC): As Doc Saturday put it, last weekend was Northwestern’s “annual upset over Iowa” that I keep forgetting about. That pretty much removes Iowa from the Rose Bowl race but doesn’t really make the Big Ten any less confusing. Provided Ohio State wins here, and I think they will, they will end up in the BCS, but it’s just a question of whether it’ll be Pasadena or New Orleans.
  • Virginia Tech @ Miami (ESPN): This is your ACC Coastal division, right here. Honestly, I don’t think it matters who starts at QB for Miami at this point, but I think the VPI defense is still quality enough to control them. With this year’s edition of Tyrod Taylor, the Hokies should also still be able to generate enough offense to outpace the Miami attack, which is a pretty conventional offense with some great talent. These are the type of offenses VPI has been feasting on for years.
  • Stanford @ California (FSN): It’s The Big Game, folks. Does Cal stand a chance? While this is a huge rivalry, I think Cal spent their bullets against Oregon last weekend. Also, that Andrew Luck kid is pretty good at this quarterback thing. While I think Stanford will win, this is very reminiscent of last year’s Big Game that the Cardinal were also heavily favored to win but ended up losing. So, hey, ya never know.
  • Illinois vs. Northwestern (@Chicago, IL; ESPNU): Ponder this: Northwestern is a small, private school that is typically not really good at football. Illinois is the big, huge state school that should be great at football. Now, then, you’re probably aware of this, as I was, but I still just looked it up and I am shocked that Northwestern is 6-1 against Illinois since 2003. If Illinois isn’t careful, the Wildcats will pass them soon, as the all time series is a pretty close 52-46-5 in favor of Illinois. And I think that trend will continue this year. Not because Northwestern is great or anything, but I mean seriously, Illinois just lost to Minnesota. Minnesota! In addition watching Ron Zook lose, this game also provides the novelty of football in a baseball stadium. The baseball stadium thing being the novel part, not the Ron Zook losing part. [Ed: We’ve learned at the last minute that both teams will work towards one end zone on offense. This is like when we were kids, except that presumably there are also no gardens or trees in the field of play.]
  • Arkansas State @ Navy (CBSCS): Navy.

7:00:

  • Army vs. Notre Dame (@New York, NY; NBC): So Notre Dame just demolished Utah, getting out of their funk for now. While I don’t think they’ll quite do the same damage here, they should still win pretty comfortably.
  • Arkansas @ Mississippi State (ESPN): Arkansas might be putting together the quietest 2-loss season in SEC history. While Miss State is pretty decent this year, it’s hard not to like Arkansas this point, provided they don’t overlook the Bulldogs.
  • Missouri @ Iowa State (FSN): Iowa State is gunning for their first consecutive bowl streak since 2004 and 2005. They’ll get close, but just not close enough. Mizzou keeps their slim Big 12 North hopes alive.
  • Connecticut @ Syracuse (ESPNU): Who wants to win the Big East? These two teams certainly still can, but technically anyone still can, so that’s not really saying much. I flipped a coin, and this time I didn’t lose it. It came up UConn.

8:00:

  • Southern California @ Oregon State (ABC): That win over Cal looks really confusing now doesn’t it? (Not to mention that 2 point victory over Arizona.) In the last 4 games, the Beavers have lost to Washington, UCLA, and Wazzou, three of the worst teams in the conference. I think USC will continue the trend, though they’re actually good so who knows?
  • Nebraska @ Texas Agricultural and Mechanical (ABC): I didn’t realize until just now that TAMU is ranked. Huh. That said, while TAMU prevailed over then #8 Oklahoma two weeks ago I don’t think they’ll have the same luck against current #8 Nebraska. This is definitely the game of the evening, though, so give it a look if you can.
  • Florida State @ Maryland (ABC): Well, it’s been fun Maryland, but I’ll be really surprised if you can beat Florida State this weekend. Still, a pretty surprising year for the Terps.
  • Oklahoma @ Baylor (ESPN2): The ride was fun for Baylor as well, but then they ran into Oklahoma State and TAMU and, well, it hasn’t been pretty. This will probably continue against the Sooners.
  • Houston @ Southern Mississippi (CBSCS): Considering all that happened in Hattiesburg last weekend after USM’s upset over UCF, I will be both surprised and delighted if Southern Miss can beat the Cougars here.

I’m flying back to the eye of the crazy storm (i.e., Alabama) on Sunday, so bowl predictions maybe late. Of course, since I just uploaded them today during a normal week, I guess that won’t really be all that different.

Bowl Predictions 2010: Week 5

It’s week 5, do you know where your bowl predictions are?

  • In the BCS, I don’t think anyone’s going to catch Auburn or Oregon unless something happens in regards to Cam Newton. The Cal game was likely an aberration for the Ducks, and they should be able to get back on track.
  • But what happens if either loses? That’s very interesting, to say the least. It looks very likely now Boise will catch and pass TCU, so I have put Boise in the Rose. But remember, only one of these teams is guaranteed a BCS berth. I don’t think the BCS would want to face the backlash of excluding TCU if they go undefeated. Also, I don’t know what options looks all that more appealing than TCU to the Orange or Fiesta bowls. Basically, the last two BCS slots (presumably the Sugar will take whichever team loses the Big Ten’s Rose Bowl tiebreaker, right now I have this as a 1-loss Ohio State) will be down to Pittsburgh (or whoever wins the Big East), TCU, a 2-loss Nebraska (or whoever the loser of the Big 12 title game is), and a 1-loss Stanford. The Orange may just fall on the sword and take Pitt or whoever that’s going to be, leaving the Fiesta with a Big 12 team that just lost its title game, a Stanford fan base that isn’t known for its size or willingness to travel, or an undefeated TCU.
  • I’ve been projecting 3-4 extra teams the past weeks, which bodes well for the possible doomsday scenarios. However, with attendance down all over college football this year I think some of these bowls are going to lose a ton of money this year, which may allow us to get back to a reasonable number. May.
  • Let me rant about the Big East again. It’s mid-November, and most teams haven’t played more than 4 conference games. This makes it such a pain to predict, especially when you have the only obvious frontrunner go and lose to UConn. That said, Notre Dame being relatively dreadful this year will at least let them send a team to the Champs Sports Bowl. Probably.
  • Army clinched their berth in the Armed Forces Bowl last weekend. They will likely not play a Mountain West team there, but they could (I should probably check the payouts on that). For now I’ve slotted SMU there, since it’s being played at their home stadium.
  • For my fellow Georgia Tech fans, it’s not looking good. Basically, here’s how I view it: beat Duke and UGA and we could get up to the Music City. Go 1-1 and probably end up in Shreveport, with an outside shot of ending up in San Francisco, though as bad as GT’s travel reputation is at least we’re south of the Ohio River, unlike Boston College.
  • The Alamo Bowl paid up the big bucks to take the slot formerly occupied by the Holiday Bowl, and boy, if they get the Stanford-Nebraska matchup I’m predicting there could be some fireworks in that game.

This Week in College Football: Week 12

For the last month of the season, in addition to the usual weekly column we’ll also examine the Tuesday through Friday action as well.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Tuesday

8:00: Ohio @ Temple (ESPN2): There’s a 3-way tie for the MAC East right now, so once again your Tuesday MACtion has championship implications. Ohio has already beaten the other team in the tie (Miami) so a win here would be huge for them with only beatable Kent State to go. Meanwhile, a Temple win here and a Miami win against Akron on Wednesday sets up a season ending showdown a week from Friday. As for this game? Honestly, I like the Owls here. They’ve just been dominant against almost all of their MAC foes and it’s at home.

Wednesday

6:00: Miami @ Akron (ESPNU): As I said above, Miami is the other team in the tie. Akron… is not. Akron is probably the worst team in major college football this season due to be 0-10 on the year. I think the predicted winner here is obvious.

8:00: Bowling Green @ Toledo (ESPN2): Going with the decent team (Toledo) over the 2-8 team (Bowling Green).

Thursday

7:30: Georgia State @ Alabama (ESPNU): Ordinarily, I don’t list DI-AA vs. DI-A competition on here. This game won’t be any less lopsided than the ones I usually list. In fact, it will probably be even more lopsided because it’s first-year Georgia State going into Tuscaloosa. (It may still be less painful for former Alabama (and Georgia Tech) coach Bill Curry than the time an Alabama fan threw a brick threw his window.) At any rate, this is the conclusion of ESPN’s documentary of Georgia State football, a series I’ve been fascinated with as it talks about the trials and travails of a team that’s just getting its feet. But unlike a lot of other teams of this sort, at least they’re staying within their means and not trying to jump into I-A in two years. So watch the beginning out of respect, and then look away out of respect, because no one likes rubberneckers.

8:00: California-Los Angeles @ Washington (ESPN): Yeah… they schedule these Thursday night games at the beginning of the year. Sometimes they’re right about which ones will be good. Sometimes, they’re, um, not and you end up with two Pac-10 teams with losing records. U-Dub just finished the murder’s row portion of their schedule (Arizona, Stanford, Oregon) and now settles back into games they have a chance to win, needing to win their next two over UCLA and Cal to go into the Apple Cup with a shot at a bowl. All that said, I think UCLA will win.

10:00: Air Force @ Nevada-Las Vegas (CBSCS): No one in the Mountain West that isn’t TCU, Utah, BYU, SDSU, or Air Force has more than 3 wins. I’ll take Air Force here.

Friday

9:30: Fresno State @ Boise State (ESPN2): This Fresno team is pretty okay. But I’ve seen nothing this year (including watching Fresno last week against Nevada) that thinks they’ll get anything other than blown out by Boise. I was going to write that it’ll be an upset if Fresno covers but I just looked up the line and it’s Boise by 30.5. Okay, so they might actually cover, but that’s the sort of respect Boise is getting from Vegas, at least.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 11

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Mississippi @ Tennessee (CBS): It’s a battle for SEC East vs. West supremacy! Well, supremacy for the worst team in the conference, at least. These two teams are a combined 1-9 in SEC play. The winner has a decidedly better shot at getting to a bowl, as Tennessee needs to win out to make it to 6-6, and it’s only worth mentioning that because the other two opponents are Kentucky and Vanderbilt. Ole Miss has a harder road and would have to upset LSU or Miss State. Anyway, I’ll take Tennessee here, for no apparent reason. I mean, you would at least think that if CBS was going to use one of their finite numbers of double headers they’d at least pick two teams with winning records, like, say, Alabama-Miss State or South Carolina-Florida.
  • Iowa @ Northwestern (ESPN): It would sure be easier to figure out who’s going to win the Big Ten if Iowa would just drop a game or two. Probably won’t happen here though.
  • Indiana @ Wisconsin (ESPN2): Indiana is 4-0 in OOC play and oh-fer in Big Ten play. I suspect this trend will continue. (Wow, what a dreadful set of noon games so far. And frankly it’s not getting much better.)
  • South Florida @ Louisville (ESPNU): Who wants to win the Big East? I mean, seriously. No one has stepped up so far. Both these teams are 2-2 in conference and are certainly as likely as anyone else to win the damn thing at this point. I like USF better overall, and plus they play Pitt next week, so hey, it could happen.
  • Southern Mississippi @ Central Florida (CBSCS): UCF has simply been the class of Conference USA this year. 5-0 in conference play and 7-2 overall (featuring close losses to NCSU and Kansas State), UCF has shown an ability to take care of business against the dregs of the conference and outpace the other good teams. Overtime loss to UAB notwithstanding, USM is one of C-USA’s better teams but it would be difficult to pick against UCF at this point.
  • Michigan @ Purdue (BTN): Michigan has gotten bowl eligible after last week’s triple overtime thriller, which is good because both of the last two games they could win without it really being termed a “massive upset” were not slam dunks. That scenario is here again this week, as the Boilermakers don’t really have an answer for the Big Ten’s other good offenses but have scored enough against bad defenses. That said, Purdue is down to, like, its sixth string QB and is looking for answers at this point to make a desperate thrust at bowl eligibility (with a game remaining against Indiana, this isn’t impossible, either). I have to go with Michigan here.
  • Vanderbilt @ Kentucky (SEC): This has been a lost season for the Commodores, which aren’t exactly used to winning football or anything but they haven’t really even being doing that “keep it close in the first half and then fade away in the second half” thing that they were known for in the past either. Wildcats should win easily.
  • Miami @ Georgia Tech (ACC): It’s the battle of the backup quarterbacks! Stephen Morris went 18/30 and threw a TD, but he still continued Jacory Harris’s legacy of interceptions by throwing two picks. Nonetheless, that TD was the game winner with 37 seconds to go, so that’s some poise as well. Tevin Washington will be the starter for GT, and after spending most of his first few drives getting used to game speed he led GT on the tying scoring drive late in the fourth quarter, and very nearly did it again at the end of regulation before throwing the game ending interception. Nonetheless, the future is now in Atlanta, and it should be fun to watch.
    On another note, Georgia Tech will be be celebrating the 20th anniversary of its national title at the game, including appearances from as many members of the team as they could find and Bobby Ross himself. I had hoped at the beginning of the year that this game would also be a wonderful chance to clinch the Coastal coming off an early November upset in Virginia (paralleling the way Tech beating then #1 Virginia in Charlottesville propelled them, ultimately, to the national title). Suffice it to say, that didn’t quite happen. Still plenty to play for, though, and hopefully we make the most of it.

12:30: Kansas State @ Missouri (FSN): So are the wheels coming off for Mizzou? Losing to Nebraska is one thing, but losing to a moribund-at-best Texas Tech team is inexplicable. So now we have a matchup of two teams that I’m not quite sure what to make of. For now, I’ll say that the wheels aren’t coming off, but they’re definitely getting kind of wobbly.

2:30: Utah @ Notre Dame (NBC): Sure, Utah got ground into a pulp at home against their conference rivals. But they’re probably still better than Notre Dame at this point/

3:30:

  • Georgia @ Auburn (CBS): Okay, against this edition of UGA Auburn should win either way. I don’t really know what to make of the Cam Newton scandal at this point but in a lot of ways, I’m almost tempted to say that as long as they think they can avoid major sanctions for doing so (other than what they already would face) they should just play him and hope everything works out. You’ve already played 10 games, so there’s not really any turning back now, is there?
  • Pennsylvania State @ Ohio State (ABC/ESPN): I think the Buckeyes should roll here, honestly. With the Penn State quarterback situation far from solid, the usual Buckeye defense should be able to do its thing as long as the offense can hold up its end of the bargain, as it has in two post-Wisconsin beatdowns put on Purdue and Minnesota.
  • Texas Tech @ Oklahoma (ABC): OU just looked all out of sorts last week against Texas Tech, in what turned out to be an extremely chaotic weekend in the Big 12. Since I’m not sure what to make of this, I’ll take the easy way out and go with trends. OU hasn’t lost a home game since 2005 and has won 6 straight against TTU at home. So there you go.
  • Virginia Tech @ North Carolina (ABC/ESPN): If Butch Davis weren’t likely to get fired for the scandal, he probably deserves Coach of the Year for what he’s done with a depleted defense and a questionable offense. They pulled off an upset against former ACC frontrunner FSU last weekend, but I don’t think they’ll be able to do it again to the Hokies.
  • Syracuse @ Rutgers (ESPNU): Both these teams can still win the Big East! (Hint: that applies to any Big East team right now.) That said, despite the luster coming off the Orange’s season somewhat I still like them over Rutgers.
  • Central Michigan @ Navy (CBSCS): Central Michigan is pretty awful this year. Navy shouldn’t have many issues.

4:00: San Diego State @ Texas Christian (Versus): SDSU is 7-2 and their head coach may find himself at another job very soon due to his quick resurrection of a team that was routinely one of the worst in football. Despite that, unless TCU has gotten too fat and happy off its beatdown of Utah last week I expect a similar performance here.

7:00:

  • Texas Agricultural and Mechanical @ Baylor (FSN): Screw logic and reason, I still like Baylor here.
  • Texas-El Paso @ Arkansas (ESPNU): UTEP may be one of the most maddeningly difficult teams in college football to quantify (along with Cal) but it shouldn’t be an issue here, unless the Razorbacks are caught looking forward two weeks to the LSU game.

7:15:

  • South Carolina @ Florida (ESPN): Spurrier’s back, but that hasn’t really worked out well for him in any of the past few seasons. In general, the back end of the SEC schedule hasn’t been kind to the Visor since his return. The question here is, is Florida’s rejuvenated offense enough to overcome one of the best defenses in the SEC (despite the 41-20 loss last week)? That said, the main problem last week is that South Carolina came up flat and didn’t do anything on offense despite having the human personification of a freight train at running back. I don’t think they will again here, but I also think Florida will win anyway.
  • Mississippi State @ Alabama (ESPN2): This another matchup of an interesting offense against a high-flying defense. But there’s a lot less uncertainty here for me. Bama should win.

7:30: Oregon @ California (Versus): Right on schedule, it’s time for Cal to lose again. It may get ugly against the nation’s best offense, though.

8:00:

  • Southern California @ Arizona (ABC): Arizona is ranked for three reasons: they only have two losses, those losses were to teams that were ranked, and they have a good win over Iowa. That’s it. Don’t get me wrong, I still think they’ll beat USC, but I won’t exactly be shocked if they lose.
  • Clemson @ Florida State (ABC): Did someone at ABC forget that there are no Bowdens in the this matchup anymore? That’s the only explanation I have for this one. FSU should win though.
  • Oklahoma State @ Texas (ABC): Okay, it doesn’t exactly look like Texas will remember “hey wait, almost everyone one our roster would start at almost every other school in the country” but hey, it could happen. But it probably won’t. What’s supposed to be appealing about any of these ABC 8:00 PM games again?
  • Tulsa @ Houston (CBSCS): Houston has coped well with the early loss of their all-everything QB. Better than I thought they would, actually. Also, I hope you like points, because this game is going to feature a lot of them. That said, I like Tulsa in the end simply because they can run and pass the football.

10:30: Nevada @ Fresno State (ESPNU): It’s the battle of “the other two respectable teams in the WAC”! Actually, this is probably worth watching, if for no other reason than because this is probably more interesting than the inevitable pummeling they’ll take when they play Boise. I concede that it is possible for Nevada to put a similar pummeling on Fresno, though. That said, I think this will be a close, high scoring affair, perfect for wrapping up a long day of college football. Nevada should win, though.