Yearly Archives: 2008

Bowl Predictions, Week 4

Here ya go. Let’s do this.

  • Got officially back onto the Florida bandwagon, they should make a BCS bowl over Georgia even if they lose to Alabama in the SECCG.
  • The Big 12 and SEC will be 2 teams short of a full slate. I don’t see this changing unless some really unlikely stuff occurs.
  • As for the ACC, who the hell knows? They will have at least 9 bowl eligible teams, though.
  • Yes, Virginia, you do see both Buffalo and Florida International on there, though FIU is pretty much a stand-in for “any eligible Sun Belt team”. Buffalo will probably be at least 7-5, though.
  • Just a reminder, even though I do have USC going to the Rose if Oregon State wins out they will have the tiebreaker over USC. Which makes things interesting for the Fiesta, as they’d have a choice (most likely) of Texas, Ohio State, and USC and could only pick two.
  • Somewhat Non-Obvious Matchup of the Week: Oregon State-Oklahoma State, Holiday Bowl. Not exactly non-obvious, but Oregon State is strangely buyount this season and Oklahoma State should have no problems scoring points. The Holiday’s repuation as a good bowl should remain intact. Imagine if USC falls to here (though they probably won’t)?

This Weekend in College Football: Week 11

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Michigan @ Minnesota (ESPN): After their thrilling loss to the Fightin’ Kafkas last week, I expect a pedestrian beatdown of the Wolverines, whose season, and bowl streak, is shot.
  • Ohio State @ Northwestern (ESPN2): Just how good is this Northwestern team? We’re about to find out for sure. Considering the losses to Michigan State and Indiana, my guess is “not very good”. OSU by a few field goals.
  • Baylor @ Texas (FSN): I’m looking forward to seeing what Baylor can do next year. Tomorrow? Not so much. Texas by 30 or so.
  • Purdue @ Michigan State (BTN): Michigan State continues their pleasure cruise through the Big Ten and a probably Capital One Bowl berth.
  • Georgia Tech @ North Carolina (Raycom/Gameplan): Huge game for both teams, though neither currently controls their own destiny in the ACC Coastal. Both teams are still in it, but need VPI and Virginia to lose. The loser of this game is more than likely out of it, period. GT is ahead of every other ACC team in the conference schedule at the moment, with 6 games down and 2 to go. They have an off week which is desperately needed.
    And that’s going to be Tech’s biggest problem in this game.
    UNC is probably the most competent passing team in the ACC, which is probably not saying much but still. This is bad news for Tech’s banged up secondary. They performed well last week, with freshman safety Cooper Taylor coming up with the now-famous fumble. But he also made a big freshman mistake earlier, where he never turned around and saw the ball on the pass that put FSU within 3. Luckily, we got Dominique Reese back for this game, but we’re still missing senior Jahi Word-Daniels at corner. Expect to see Morgan Burnett (who is Tech’s best defensive back, period) occasionally slide over to corner.
    Where Tech is really hurting is on the offensive line. This unit was already thin, but starting left tackle and captain Andrew Gardner is out for the year after surgery to repair a torn labrum in his shoulder. The only Tech player from my high school, RT David Brown (also a senior), is out for a second consecutive game with a spinal condition. Underclassmen are now starting at RG and RT, and freshman stud Nick Claytor is going to start at LT. They are all capable but also young, and the depth behind them is iffy.
    Anyway, I cannot stress enough how badly Tech needs a win here, especially going into the bye week. The last visit to Chapel Hill was the 7-0 debacle back in 2006 – while we did clinch a Coastal Division title in that game, it also was a clear signal that perhaps all was not well with that 2006 team. At least it was the beginning of the end of Patrick Nix as OC.

12:30: Georgia @ Kentucky (Raycom/Gameplan): UGA was absolute savaged down in Jacksonville last weekend, much to my delight. While I would love Kentucky to do the same, I’m not holding my breath.

1:30: Iowa State @ Colorado (Versus): CU continues their epic march towards a huge showdown with Nebraska to see who will go 6-6, barring any major upsets.

3:30:

  • Alabama @ Louisiana State (CBS): This really should be a night game. The fact that it is not works very much in Bama’s favor. Also in Alabama’s favor is the fact LSU has wilted in their two games against the other two most competent teams in the SEC so far this year, losing by 30 to Florida and 14 to Georgia. I may regret saying this, but looking over LSU’s schedule gives me no realy indication why they are ranked or perceived as highly as they are this season. So I’m picking Alabama.
  • Oklahoma @ Texas Agricultural and Mechanical (ABC/Gameplan): OU hasn’t suffered any apparently ill effects from the Texas game, aside from perhaps a somewhat leaky defense. Is TAMU competent enough to exploit this? Not particularly. OU by a few scores.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Iowa (ESPN/ABC): There has been many a drop of ink and bytes of disk space wasted on why Penn State should not be #3 in the BCS right now. If they’re one of 2 undefeated teams from a BCS conference, then sure, they are deserving. But right now, Texas Tech is, from any measure that I can tell, a better football team. I could probably also make arguments for several 1-loss teams, but still.
  • Clemson @ Florida State (Gameplan/ESPN/ABC): I tried not to want to rant about this but I guess I failed. GT-UNC is the only matchup this week of two ranked ACC teams, and they’re also the highest ranked ACC teams. Nonetheless, ESPN/ABC decided they wanted Notre Dame-Boston College and this game instead. Clemson is 4-4, has no head coach, and will probably miss a bowl, especially if they lose in Tallahassee. Which they probably will.
  • Stanford @ Oregon (FSN): I…I…I have no idea what to make of this game. None. Since it’s at Oregon, I’ll take the Ducks.
  • Marshall @ East Carolina (CBSCS): These teams are actually tied for the lead in the C-USA East division. I watched the UCF-ECU game last Sunday and while ECU won, they didn’t really look good doing it. That said, it’s at ECU and Marshall isn’t exactly setting the world on fire, so Pirates in a close one.

7:00: Kansas State @ Missouri (FSN): Kansas State is coachless and, as much as I hate to say it, things look pretty bad out there. Mizzou can probably name their own score for this one.

8:00:

  • California @ Southern California (ABC/Gameplan): It’s Cal! It’s USC! And I don’t care! I’d rather watch OSU-TTU and since Tech was on Raycom this weekend I went ahead and ordered Gameplan for the weekend. Stupid west coast. Oh, and USC by at least a few scores, unless they’ve spent more time moaning about the BCS this week than, you know, on actually playing football. (Dear USC: Maybe you should’ve beaten Oregon State? And perhaps also you realize that unless OSU loses again they will go to the Rose Bowl instead of y’all?)
  • Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech (Gameplan/ABC): GAME OF THE DAY. Both these teams love scoring points. But Texas Tech has shown not only do they have the usual bombing-it-out passing game they can run the ball, too. Oh, and play defense, though both these teams do that at least somewhat well. In fact, OSU has the stingiest defense in the Big 12, allowing 102 points in 5 games, to TTU’s 138. Sure, that’s over 20 points per game, but when you’re putting up 40-50 PPG it doesn’t really matter if you give up the occasional 24-spot. At any rate, with another crazy night in Lubbock I expect TTU to emerge victorious again, but I also expect a contest as equally dramatic as last week’s.
  • Notre Dame @ Boston College (ESPN): The only common opponent for these two teams is North Carolina, which beat both. BC does lack an embarrassing loss to Pittsburgh, though. In fact, looking at ND’s schedule doesn’t really make me think any of their 5 wins are all that much to write home about. Probably the best team they’ve beaten is Stanford. BC should prevail here.
  • Florida @ Vanderbilt (ESPN2): Do I want Vandy to win? Sure. I like rooting for them, and hey, choas is fun. Do I think they will win? No, not so much. Florida by 10-20 points.
  • Tulane @ Houston (CBSCS): Tulane: At Least We’re Not SMU. Houston rolls.

Anyway, see y’all Sunday for bowl predictions. And if I get around to it, a basketball preview! See ya then.

Bowl Predictions, Week 3

Here ya go. Let’s hit the high points.

  • Yes, I know I have Georgia in the BCS. Right now, I am not sure what will happen to Florida if they lose in the last weekend of the season in the SEC title game and Gerogia wins outs. Of course, since UGA went to the Sugar last year they may want Florida if they can get them anyway.
  • I don’t see an undefeated Alabama or an undefeated Texas Tech getting jumped by Penn State. With TTU’s remaining schedule I think eventually the pollsters will move TTU up, or at the least the gap will close between TTU and Penn State, and with their commanding lead in the computers that will be enough to keep Texas Tech at #2.
  • Fun fact: if Penn State loses to Michigan State (by far the toughest team on their remaining schedule) then Michigan State will go to the Rose Bowl over Ohio State. OSU will still go to a BCS game if they win out, but still.
  • I, like most everyone else, have no idea what to make of the ACC. Last week I had Miami in the EagleBank Bowl and now they’re in the Gator. They could be in Boise next week. Trying to predict this conference sucks, but there are two teams that do control their path to the ACC title game: Maryland and Virginia Tech. Both, however, have plenty of conference games remaining.
  • Georgia Tech does not control its own destiny, though, since both of our/their losses are to ACC opponents in their own division. The one nice thing for Tech (as you can see on the right) is that they only have 2 conference games remaining, so they’ll get into the clubhouse early, as it were.
  • I actually have an extra team this week, Akron! We’ll see if that holds up, though. Of the extra MAC teams, I really have no idea which would be most preferred since they’re all pretty far away from most of bowl games. (I’m surprised more cold-weather cities with domes don’t have bowl games. Detroit has the Motor City Bowl and Toronto has the International Bowl and that’s it. I would think Indianapolis, with a new stadium and central location, would look into a game. Sure beats playing outdoors in Washington, D.C.)
  • If this holds up, I feel sorry for the Independence Bowl. Also, Troy, why you gotta lose to UL-Monroe? Though (somewhat ironically) they probably improve their bowl position this year with a loss (as opposed to last year, where their last game loss cost them a bowl appearance).
  • Somewhat Non-Obvious Matchup of the Week: Gator Bowl, Miami vs. Notre Dame. Maybe if we close our eyes and wish really hard, we can pretend it’s the 1988 version of these two teams. Miami suffered its only loss of the year to the undefeated Irish, 31-30. Okay, yeah, maybe this is pretty obvious but I don’t really see any other interesting non-BCS matchups this week. And Notre Dame will be vastly overpicked here, but they’re Notre Dame and they’ll draw better than Conneciticut, probably.

Sometimes, It Really is Better to be Lucky

We’re all familiar with the cliche “it’s better to be lucky than good”.

My Mom called me after the game GT-FSU game Saturday to discuss the miracle finish. (Video, in case you haven’t seen it.) I told her at the time that it was “the luckiest thing I’ve seen since I started watching Georgia Tech football”, even more so than the miracle finish at Clemson in 2004.

But then I thought about it, and decided perhaps I should do a little comparison.

2004 vs. Clemson 2008 vs. FSU
Background Clemson had the ball and needed only a first down to win the game. On first down, Charlie Whitehurst tucks and runs with plenty of open space in front of him. To avoid the tackle, he slides down half a yard short of the first down. Clemson is then stopped for no gain or a loss on the subsequent two downs. FSU intercepted a Jaybo Shaw pass with plenty of time left and began to drive. Tech had forced a 4th and 11 and a punt at one point, but Daryl Richard fell out of his stance and was called for offisdes. FSU went for it on 4th and 6 and made the first down, and the drive continued unabated to the Georgia Tech 4. With the clock winding down under a minute, FSU looked like they were going to score the game-winning TD, but even if they somehow didn’t they still just need a chip-shot field goal to tie.
The Break Clemson’s long snapper doesn’t quite get it to the punter. The Clemson punter falls on it at their own 12 yard line. FSU’s Jermaine Thomas carries the ball straight up the middle with only one hand on the football. Safety Cooper Taylor puts his helmet on the ball and it flies in the air into the end zone.
The Luck Clemson was up by 3. Had the Clemson punter had the presence of mind to pick the ball up and run with it into the end zone Clemson probably would have preserved the lead and been able to force Georgia Tech in worse field position on the subsequent kickoff. Freshman cornerback Rashaad Reid makes a, well, freshman mistake and tries to pick the bouncing ball up instead of falling on it. Two FSU players attempt to get the ball, but somehow Reid comes out of the ensuing pile-up with the ball and a touchback for Georgia Tech.
The Game Reggie Ball throws the first of what would become Georgia Tech’s staple red-zone play for the next 3 seasons, the simple fade to Calvin Johnson. Despite some excitement on the ensuing Clemson Hail Mary, Georgia Tech escapes with the win. The call is reviewed and the replays confirm the touchback call. With 45 seconds left, Jaybo kneels twice (FSU had a timeout) and the game is over.

Overall, I have to go back on what I told my Mom and say the Clemson win was still luckier, mainly because there was pretty much no reason for Tech to get the ball back in decent field position there (much less the Clemson 12). All Charlie Whitehusrt had to do was slide an additional half a yard to get a first down and the win. All Clemson had to do after that was gain a half a yard in two plays. And all they had to do after that was punt the football. In the FSU game, the fumble was caused by an athletic play, and while recovering the ball required a significant amount of luck it didn’t require 4 straight plays worth.

One of my friends from Tech wasn’t able to watch the game (I was, thanks to the magic of the Slingbox) and so I was giving updates via AIM. Here’s the (slightly edited) conversation.
(3:40:57 PM) Me: [FSU rushes] to the GT 4
(3:41:41 PM) Me: FUMBLE
(3:41:45 PM) Him: NO WAY
(3:41:45 PM) Me: TOUCHBACK
(3:41:49 PM) Me: IT’S A MIRACLE
(3:41:53 PM) Me: SNAP THE […] BALL
(3:42:01 PM) Me: it’s questionable
(3:42:05 PM) Me: snap the […] ball
(3:42:27 PM) Me: we put a helmet right [on it]
(3:42:30 PM) Me: I think we really have it
(3:42:55 PM) Me: CALL IS CONFIRMED
(3:42:57 PM) Me: TOUCHBACK
(3:42:58 PM) Him: eeeee
(3:42:59 PM) Me: GT BALL
(3:43:01 PM) Me: 45 SECONDS LEFT
(3:43:04 PM) Me: FSU HAS 1 TIMEOUT
(3:43:16 PM) Him: So help me god if we fumble
(3:43:29 PM) Me: COOPER TAYLOR FOCED IT OUT
(3:43:33 PM) Me: FORCED, EVEN
(3:43:44 PM) Me: GT WILL KNEEL
(3:43:51 PM) Me: THERE’S ONE
(3:45:23 PM) Me: BALL GAME
(3:45:30 PM) Him: gaaaaaaa
(3:46:06 PM) Me: they’re rushing the field
(3:46:17 PM) Him: hahahah
(3:47:57 PM) Me: wowowowow
(3:48:02 PM) Him: 49-3
(3:48:08 PM) Him: Florida is savaging Gerogia
(3:48:13 PM) Me: today
(3:48:15 PM) Me: is an excellent day