Category Archives: college football

Bowl Games 2025: Week 2

The bowl predictions page has been updated.

Once again, we’re six teams short, so I had to use both the transitioning schools (Delaware and Missouri State) and four 5-7 teams (in order: Northwestern, Auburn, Rice, and Central Florida). Once again, since I predict the games out using SP+, there is a potential that any team I have projected to finish 5-7 finds one more upset and qualifies normally. For example, Mississippi State is projected to lose out to Missouri and Mississippi, but they’re about a 10 point underdog to Mizzou, which is well within the realm of possibility. (And the Egg Bowl is, of course, the Egg Bowl.)

We’ll get more clarity when the newest CFP rankings are released tomorrow. The main question is if they will put in a three loss Alabama: I have the Tide losing to Oklahoma and Texas A&M in the SEC Championship Game. At some point, that loss to Florida State has to come home to roost, right? For now I have Utah as the last at-large bid to the playoff.

The other point of contention is going to be the status of the ACC champion. As the joke goes, when the ACC killed divisions (and therefore the notoriously volatile Coastal division), they just made everything Coastal. If everything goes to my projections, the Virginia will finish with one conference loss and Louisville would win the tiebreakers between the two-loss ACC teams (which in addition to the Cards I have as Miami, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, Southern Methodist, and Duke). This prevent the nightmare scenario of a 7-5 Duke making it to, and winning, the ACC Championship Game, in which case the ACC would probably miss the playoff entirely.

Bowl Predictions 2025: Week 1

I’ve been doing bowl predictions since 1999. While there’s a lot more bowl games now (oh, and a playoff!), I still do my best to predict who goes where.

There’s essentially two phases to this. This phase is trying to figure out who goes where. At this point in the season, I am projecting each team’s record using SP+. Since most teams have 3 to 4 regular season games left, there’s a lot of wiggle room. In particular, doing it this way means that early on I’m usually short a few teams. As upsets happen and SP+ gets more in-season data, things usually even out. Right now, I need 76 teams, and I’m five short. This means I had to include FCS to FBS transition teams Delaware and Missouri State, and a well as 3 5-7 teams based on their APR.

Starting in 1999, and up until now, I had used Microsoft Expression Web (neé FrontPage). However, the software is several years old and it doesn’t run well anymore. I had also wanted some various modern web niceties (like displaying correctly on phones). So suffice it to say, the predictions have a different look this year. I’ll be continuing to tweak it, or if I can’t get it to work the way I want, I’ll just revert to the old system. For now though, enjoy.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 10

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Vanderbilt @ Texas (ABC): Vandy finds itself back in the spotlight for a second week in a row, but this time most of the chatter is about their opponent. Will Arch go? Will his top target come back? If Arch is cleared out of concussion protocol, which Arch will show up? I’ll dodge these questions and pick the Dores anyway.
  • Army @ Air Force (CBS): This a battle of the two academies that don’t have it this year. I’ll have to go with the Falcons.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Ohio State (FOX): We apologize that we penciled this game in as a Game of the Year back in August. Obviously, my pick all the way would’ve been the Buckeyes, so… I guess not much has changed?
  • Rutgers @ Illinois (NBC): Illini 100%
  • Miami @ Southern Methodist (ESPN): SMU had been undefeated in regular season ACC play, but then the Ponies lost to Wake Forest last weekend and thus sapped any intrigue from this contest. Canes all the way.
  • Navy @ North Texas (ESPN2): As implied above, Navy is the spicy academy this year. They’ll have a chance to prove it and noise in the playoff(!) picture with a win here. I don’t think UNT will be able to keep up with the option, but bigger challenges await.
  • Central Florida @ Baylor (ESPNU): It’s been a weird season for both of these teams, but Baylor’s coach is on a rapidly warming seat. I’ll take them.
  • West Virginia @ Houston (FS1): Cougs.
  • Duke @ Clemson (ACCN): Does Clemson have any pride left? Because that’s what it’s about at this point. I think they’re better on paper than Duke so I have to take them, but I don’t feel good about it at all.
  • Alabama-Birmingham @ Connecticut (CBSS): UAB fired Trent Dilfer, and because it’s the 2025 college football season, they went and beat a pretty good Memphis team. A Memphis team that is, way, way better than UConn. So first time in 2 years, Go Blazers.
  • Buffalo @ Bowling Green (ESPN+)

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This Weekend in College Football: Week 9

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • California-Los Angeles @ Indiana (FOX): I am so party to lean on this device, so I will try not to when I can. But: LIGHTNING ROUND! Hoosier!
  • Mississippi @ Oklahoma (ABC): Sooners!
  • Syracuse @ Georgia Tech (ESPN): Okay, a proper home game. This one is homecoming, even. The keys here, again, are taking care of business. We are a team that “gets away with it” from my perspective. I dearly want to be wrong about this.
  • South Florida @ Memphis (ESPN2): Bulls.
  • Southern Methodist @ Wake Forest (The CW): Ponies.
  • Northwestern @ Nebraska (FS1): Huskers?
  • Kansas State @ Kansas (“Sunflower Showdown”; TNT): K-State?
  • Rutgers @ Purdue (BTN): Boilers.
  • Appalachian State @ Old Dominion (ESPNU): ODU!
  • Virginia @ North Carolina (“The South’s Oldest Rivalry”; ACCN): UVA!
  • Ohio @ Eastern Michigan (CBSS): Ohio.
  • Bowling Green @ Kent State (ESPN+)

12:45: Auburn @ Arkansas (SECN): Hogs.

3:00:

  • Utah State @ New Mexico (MWN)
  • Connecticut @ Rice (ESPN+)

3:30:

  • Minnesota @ Iowa (CBS): Iowa?
  • Alabama @ South Carolina (ABC): Tide.
  • Brigham Young @ Iowa State (FOX): BYU.
  • Missouri @ Vanderbilt (ESPN): Vandy?
  • San Diego State @ Fresno State (FS1): Fresno.
  • Toledo @ Washington State (The CW): Wazzu!
  • Illinois @ Washington (BTN): Illini?
  • North Carolina State @ Pittsburgh (ACCN): Pitt?
  • Florida Atlantic @ Navy (CBSS): Navy.
  • Temple @ Tulsa (ESPN+)
  • Ball State @ Northern Illinois (ESPN+)
  • Massachusetts @ Central Michigan (ESPN+)
  • Louisiana-Monroe @ Southern Mississippi (ESPN+)
  • Western Michigan @ Miami (ESPN+)

4:00:

  • Baylor @ Cincinnati (ESPN2): Bears?
  • Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech (ESPNU): Red Raiders!

4:15: Texas @ Mississippi State (SECN): Horns.

6:00: Texas Christian @ West Virginia (ESPN+)

7:00:

  • Stanford @ Miami (ESPN): Canes.
  • Wisconsin @ Oregon (FS1): Ducks!
  • Louisiana @ Troy (ESPN+)
  • Georgia Southern @ Arkansas State (ESPN+)

7:30:

  • Michigan @ Michigan State (NBC): Wolverines?
  • Texas A&M @ Louisiana State (ABC): Aggies?
  • Boston College @ Louisville (ACCN): Cardinals!
  • Colorado State @ Wyoming (“Border War”; CBSS): Pokes!

7:45: Tennessee @ Kentucky (SECN): Vawls.

8:00:

  • Houston @ Arizona State (ESPN2): Sun Devils?
  • North Dakota State @ South Dakota State (ESPNU)
  • Los Angeles Dodgers @ Toronto Blue Jays (World Series Game 2; FOX)

10:15: Colorado @ Utah (“Rumble in the Rockies”; ESPN): Utes!

 

This Weekend in College Football: Week 8

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Louisiana State @ Vanderbilt (ABC): The conventional wisdom on this one is that between LSU’s offensive struggles and Vandy actually being kinda good, and at home, the Dores are favored. I see no reason to disagree.
  • Washington @ Michigan (FOX): I’m not sure either of these teams are especially good, so I’ll go with “body clocks” and pick Michigan.
  • Georgia Tech @ Duke (ESPN): And here we are again. While Wallace Wade Stadium should have some enthusiasm, this isn’t exactly Tiger Stadium at night. While we thankfully solidly beat VPI last week, this team still needs to demonstrate they can be front-runners. Or, if the underdog mentality helps at all, the Blue Devils are technically favored.
  • Baylor @ Texas Christian (“The Revivalry”; ESPN2): I don’t know a lot about either of these teams, so I’ll go with TCU.
  • Arizona @ Houston (FS1): Zona is so inconsistent, so I’ll take the Cougars.
  • Army @ Tulane (ESPNU): I think this could be a fun match up, and while I think Tulane wins on talent Army should be able to hang.
  • Connecticut @ Boston College (ACCN): BC, by a lot.
  • Central Michigan @ Bowling Green (CBSS): Does Eddie George have it rolling at Bowling Green? Seems that way.
  • Eastern Michigan @ Miami (ESPN+)

12:45: Oklahoma @ South Carolina (SECN): Sooner, by a lot.

1:00: West Virginia @ Central Florida (TNT): UCF, by a lot.

2:30: Buffalo @ Massachusetts (ESPN+)

3:00:

  • Purdue @ Northwestern (BTN): Well, while this is still a battle of bad Big Ten teams, I think it’s safe to say neither is as bad as expected. I think I slightly like the Boilers here?
  • Troy @ Louisiana-Monroe (ESPN+)

3:30:

  • Mississippi @ Georgia (ABC): I’m sort of convinced Lane Kiffin is the James Franklin of the SEC. This does mean I’m picking Georgia here. Look, I’m not happy about this either.
  • Ohio State @ Wisconsin (CBS): Buckeyes, by a lot.
  • Texas A&M @ Arkansas (ESPN): Ol’ Bobby Petrino definitely had some tricks up his sleeve last week, but I don’t think any amount of tricks means they’ll be able to hang with the Aggies.
  • Nevada-Las Vegas @ Boise State (FS1): Pay attention, because two of the biggest games of the afternoon are right here. In this one, we’ll find out the Mountain West frontrunner. I like Boise, but not nearly by as much as our friends in the desert.
  • Old Dominion @ James Madison (“Royal Rivalry”; ESPNU): This one will determine the favorite in the Sun Belt East, which is actually kind of a big deal. I like JMU here, but this should be a good one either way.
  • Southern Methodist @ Clemson (ACCN): I still don’t trust Clemson, but this isn’t last year’s SMU team.
  • Wyoming @ Air Force (CBSS): I’ll admit I don’t have much of a read on this one outside of Colorado and Wyoming sharing a border. Let’s go with Air Force?
  • Michigan State @ Indiana (Peacock)
  • Coastal Carolina @ Appalachian State (ESPN+)
  • Akron @ Ball State (ESPN+)
  • Northern Illinois @ Ohio (ESPN+)
  • Temple @ Charlotte (ESPN+)
  • Texas State @ Marshall (ESPN+)
  • Texas-San Antonio @ North Texas (ESPN+)

4:00:

  • Texas Tech @ Arizona State (FOX): Unfortunately, I don’t see how this is anything other than another Texas Tech romp. Turns out they’re good.
  • Memphis @ Alabama-Birmingham (“Battle for the Bones”; ESPN2): Memphis, by a lot. (One of the best rivalry trophies in the sport though!)

4:15: Mississippi State @ Florida (SECN): Napier may be done either way, but I still have a hard time seeing how Florida loses this one. Which, I suppose, is the problem.

6:30:

  • Washington State @ Virginia (The CW): I think Wazzu is better than their record would indicate. (Ask the folks in Oxford, MS.) That said, I have to acknowledge that Virginia is better than I thought they’d be and I’m leaving slightly that way.
  • Oregon @ Rutgers (BTN): Oregon, by a lot.

7:00:

  • Texas @ Kentucky (ESPN): Texas, by a lot.
  • Maryland @ California-Los Angeles (FS1): Exhibit A for two teams trending in opposite directions. It’s very much not September in College Park, and the “under new management” Bruins are suddenly competent. So yeah, UCLA all the way here.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Iowa (Peacock)
  • Hawaii @ Colorado State (Spectrum)

7:30:

  • Tennessee @ Alabama (“Third Saturday in October”; ABC): This is very much a “styles make fights” game and I don’t think this is a particularly good match up for the Tide.
  • Southern California @ Notre Dame (NBC): This is being billed as a chance for USC to get back in the “nationally relevant” conversation, which is why I like Notre Dame here.
  • Florida Atlantic @ South Florida (ESPNU): USF, by a lot.
  • Pittsburgh @ Syracuse (ACCN): “We’re not rivals, but we play a lot” sums up the vibes of this one. I think the Orange are slightly better, but the Panthers have themselves a new quarterback. What rules here? I’ll lean slightly Pitt but this should be wide open.

7:45: Missouri @ Auburn (SECN): Mizzou, by a lot.

8:00:

  • Utah @ Brigham Young (“Holy War”; FOX): This will be one of the grittiest games of the day. Ultimately I think the Stormin’ Mormons have more grit.
  • Cincinnati @ Oklahoma State (ESPN2): Cincy, by a lot.

9:45: Nevada @ New Mexico (FS1): This one should be close, in sense that neither of these teams are particularly good. I slightly lean Lobos here.

10:00: Lafayette @ Oregon State (The CW)

10:30: Florida State @ Stanford (ESPN): I would say “Florida State, by a lot” but… what’s going on in Tallahassee? I don’t think FSU will lose this, not at all, but if they do this is a Penn State level disaster for Mike Norvell and company.