Bowl Predictions, Week 8

I don’t have time to do a full, conference-by-conference breakdown. However, I will say that I’ve given up hope of logic, reason, and human decency prevailing in the case of Georgia Tech’s bowl berth. Boise, here we come!

Anyway, with all the shenanigans that happened today, even who will be in the BCS title game is hard to see. For the time being, I think we’re all LSU fans. From what I have been told, LSU should pass Georgia in most of the computer polls, which means that they need only to pass UGA in one of the human polls. Both sets of my predictions assume this will occur.

Yes, that’s right, “both”. See, the biggest BCS question now is this: what if Kansas finishes 3rd or 4th? By BCS rules, this means they gain an automatic bid to a BCS Game. Hawaii will almost certainly finish 12th or higher, meaning they are also an auto-qualifier. By my count, the following teams will more than likely earn automatic berths: Ohio State (BCS #1), LSU (BCS #2), Virginia Tech (ACC champion), West Virginia (Big East champ), USC (Pac-10 champ), Oklahoma (Big 12 champ), Hawaii (WAC champ, finished 12th or higher), Georgia (finished 3rd or 4th in the BCS). If Kansas is also in this group, it really affects the Sugar and Fiesta bowls because the Fiesta really wants Arizona State but with the Orange likely to select West Virginia ahead of them they will have to take Hawaii, unless they really want a Kansas-Oklahoma bout (which I doubt). This sends Kansas to the Sugar Bowl to face Georgia.

So, I produced two versions: one where Kansas makes it, and another where they, well, don’t.

So there’s what I’ll hang my hat on. The BCS standings will be announced at 8:00 EST on FOX. I may update the projections based on projected BCS standings, but that mostly depends on how many normal bowl bids are announced between now and 8:00 EST later today.

UPDATE (12/2, 3:40): Kansas has dropped to 8th in the AP and Coaches’ polls, which means they are almost certainly out. As pointed out by the anonymous commenter below, this also means the Gator will pick before the Cotton does. I have updated the predictions accordingly.

UPDATE (12/2, 6:44): TCU has been selected to the Texas Bowl, implying that the Big 12 will send two teams to the BCS. Looks like my Kansas-oriented predictions shouldn’t be thrown away quite yet…

This Weekend in College Football: Week 14

Last week of the regular season! As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

11:00: Central Michigan vs. Miami (@Detroit; ESPN2): It’s MAC-tastic! Miami won’t make a bowl game if they lose, so they’re going to have to win this to go anywhere. That said, they probably won’t.

Noon:

  • Army vs. Navy (@Baltimore; CBS): My allegiance here, if it can be called that, is to the Black Knights. Unfortunately, I don’t really think they’ll have much of a chance against bowl-bound Navy.
  • Tulsa @ Central Florida (ESPN): Both these teams have been the toast of Conference-USA this year, though UCF has one less conference loss, helped by the fact they won the first meeting between these two teams 44-23. Thought it may be closer this time around, it’s a home game for the Knights and I expect them to earn the trip to Memphis.

1:00: Boston College vs. Virginia Tech (@Jacksonville; ABC): And here we go again, a rematch of the rainy night in Blacksburg featuring a miracle come back for the Eagles that kept them in national title contention (at the time). No rain is expected tomorrow, for better or worse for these teams. Of course, since that night, VPI is 5-0 and won in convincing fashion, whereas BC is 2-2 with losses to moribund FSU and Maryland and an unconvincing margin over Miami (though the win at Clemson is good). That said, VPI seems to have found something of an offense and reversed their usual November swoon. I expect them to take the lead and hold it this time around, and get themselves some oranges in the process.

4:00: Louisiana State vs. Tennessee (@Atlanta; CBS): This game is of greatly diminished importance for all the obvious reasons. Tennessee has also been lucky (though not the luckiest team) since their loss to Alabama, beating Kentucky and Vanderbilt by a combined 3 points. LSU is also facing plenty of distractions, as not one but two of their coaches are rumored to be heading elsewhere. That said, Tennessee has no weapons like McFadden, and I still think LSU wins this one handily.

4:30:

  • California-Los Angeles @ Southern California (ABC): Last year, USC was on their way to another shot at the national title when all of a sudden they got, shall we say, Dorrell’d. The plucky coach of UCLA probably needs to do it again if he wants to save his job. I’d say there’s a pretty good chance he’s going to need some new work come Monday. That said, would it not spectacularly sum up this season if UCLA and Arizona win, thus sending the Bruins to the Rose Bowl? (Ugh. I hate quoting Bill Simmons-isms, but I think I just threw up in my mouth a little.)
  • Oregon State @ Oregon (ESPN2): Alas, poor Oregon. If there was an award in college football for “a player that individually makes a huge impact in the performance of his team“, Dennis Dixon would have to win it (and maybe there is, I think there are two “best player” trophies). The Oregon offense was offensive last weekend and put up a mighty zero against noted non-juggernaut UCLA. They are just completely boned without Dixon, and I don’t see that changing here. Beavers win.

7:00: California @ Stanford (Versus): Not only is it on Versus, it’s on Versus HD. Aw yeah, you know we’ll all be up for some Big Game action. Okay, well, not really, Cal should roll here.

7:45: Pittsburgh @ West Virginia (ESPN): Backyard brawl time! Does Pitt stand a chance? Not really! Many couches will lose their lives in Morgantown tonight.

8:00:

  • Oklahoma vs. Missouri (@San Antonio, ABC): I feel conflicted about this. I want to like Missouri, I really do, but for whatever reason I still think Oklahoma is a better team. It also doesn’t help the Sooners won their previous meeting. Yet, in my bowl predictions, I took Mizzou because figuring out the Oklahoma winning scenario would be complicated. Of course, I’ll change the predictions after the games anyway before the bowls are announced in Sunday, but still. I’ll go with the #1 team in the country to pull off the upset here.
  • Arizona @ Arizona State (ESPN2): ASU better not screw this one up, that’s all I can say. Sun Devils should win.

11:30: Washington @ Hawaii (ESPN2): You’d think this is an easy victory for the Warriors, but Washington played Boise State earlier this year and won, getting them one of their four victories. Of course, Hawaii took care of Boise pretty well, but still. That said, that was a long time ago, and I like Hawaii here, but it could be closer than many on the islands would like to think.

Week Fourteen

Note: I will no longer include pictures in these posts, because formatting them with captions in Blogger is tedious.

The college football season is way too short. Fans are offered only fourteen out of fifty-two weeks to enjoy the greatest sport in the world (unless you count the bowl season). I say that’s not enough. If it were up to me, college football would be played in the spring, too. Each team would play a total of twenty-four games. The doubled air time would be well worth the exponential spike in player injuries that would occur. As an added bonus, baseball would get much less attention from the sports media.

Anyway, you probably didn’t direct your browser to this note in order to read me whine. LSU dropped another triple-overtime thriller to Arkansas. The upset may have led to Nutt’s contact extension (which he turned down for a lucrative position at Ole Miss [!?]). It also destroyed the Tigers’ championship hopes, in all likelihood. LSU can still secure a trip to the Sugar Bowl with a win over Tennessee (4, CBS), but the title game is now a very long shot.

In contrast, some other Tigers are one win away from a trip to New Orleans. Thanks to their 36-28 victory over rising star Kansas, Missouri is scheduled to face Oklahoma this Saturday for the Big 12 title (8, ABC). Chase Daniel vaulted his team over West Virginia to the No. 1 spot in the BCS. The Mountaineers attempted to prevent the coup with a 66-21 slaughter of Connecticut. Unfortunately for Rodriguez, the BCS realized that crushing a team in New England means about as much as lapping a baby in a mile race.

Ohio State benefited the most from this week’s shakeup. A loss by Missouri or West Virginia gives the Buckeyes a chance to redeem their embarrassment at the hands of the Florida Gators. It is unlikely that 4-7 Pittsburgh will topple the Mountaineers (7:45, ESPN), so Jim Tressel should start praying now for the Sooners to overwhelm the Tiger defense. Georgia and Virginia Tech, who each took care of their in-state rivals, need both of the top two to lose to have a shot. (The Hokies would also have to overcome Boston College (1, ABC).)

In other news, Nebraska demonstrated defensive ineptitude once more and allowed Colorado to drop 65 points on them. Bill Callahan, the Alec Baldwin doppleganger of Division I-A, was fired soon after the game. Boston College defeated Miami for the first time since the Flutie miracle, and Tennessee rode another SEC East overtime matchup to a win.

Their backup 11 of 39 passing, Oregon was unable to score against UCLA. Surprisingly, the Bruin quarterbacks were even worse, completing 4 of 17. Like much of the Pac-10, both teams are active this Saturday. Oregon hopes to save face in the Civil War against Oregon State (4:30, ESPN2), and UCLA looks to taint another Trojan season (4:30, ABC).

And now, some coverage of the little guys. Florida Atlantic and Troy are going to duke it out for the Sun Belt (the “Best of the Worst” title), Miami (OH) and Central Michigan for the MAC, and Tulsa and Central Florida for Conference USA (what a presumptious name). Florida International, the only winless team at this point, hosts North Texas in hopes of avoiding an ultimate disgrace.

Hotshot Hawaii defeated Boise State to claim the WAC Championship (doesn’t the name of their conference say it all?) and a #12 BCS ranking. The Warriors host Washington, who at 4-8 don’t look very threatening. Apparently the Huskies knew in advance they wouldn’t make a bowl and scheduled a trip to the island (like Alabama did a few years ago).

Speaking of Alabama, did anyone watch their game a few nights ago? I think they lost to their in-state rival for the sixth year in a row. That’s what I read, anyway. Oh wait, I did see that game in person. Witnessing another Iron Bowl victory by Auburn from the 25-yard line was well worth the five hours I spent at the stadium before the game. I’d like to thank my fiancee Laura for waiting with me; it was truly an act of love.

Finally, this hilarious quote by ESPN.com writer Ivan Maisel: “…as for the theory that Nick Saban is whipping Alabama into shape, Tuberville just continues to whip Alabama.” War Eagle!