This Week in College Football: Week 6

Introducing the new “This Week in College Football”. With the proliferation of conferences desperate for ESPN’s money and exposure, we now have college ball on practically everyday of the week. So each week, I’ll write up a short post about this week’s weekday games in the same vein as my weekend column.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Tuesday
8:00: Middle Tennessee State @ Troy (ESPN2): SUN BELT GRUDGE MATCH. I don’t know if ESPN is bringing back Interactive Tuesday (let’s hope not), but this game features two potential Sun Belt front runners, and Troy won the conference last year (and should’ve two years ago). I think this may actually be a rivalry, but my perception is slightly colored because I know folks who went to both schools. MTSU has had a strong season so far, so I’ll have to pick again the reigning champs. (Sorry Rob.)

Thursday
9:00: Nebraska @ Missouri (ESPN): It’s “bad mojo week” at Mizzou, as yesterday was the 19th anniversary of the infamous “5th down” that cost Missouri a victory over Colorado and GT an undisputed national title. 11 years ago was also the “das boot” game against Nebraska. Back in the present day, both these teams are undefeated and poised (along with Kansas) to challenge for the Big 12 North title. Missouri hasn’t done much since running Illinois off the field in Week 1, which as we know isn’t really that impressive. Nebraska has been putting up tons of points against teams that aren’t Virginia Tech, but on the flip side all those other teams were from the Sun Belt. Nonetheless, I expect the usual Big 12 North defensive presence, which is to say none. I think Nebraska will ultimately come out on top, though.

Friday
9:00: Louisiana Tech @ Nevada (ESPN): You’ve probably read by now about how Nevada absolutely exploded on UNLV last Saturday. If not, consider these facts. 772 total yards. (Note, this is just Nevada.) 559 yards rushing. Of course, this was a tight game through the end of the 3rd quarter, when Nevada went up 35-28. Then they proceeded to score 28 unanswered points. Talk about letting off some steam after an 0-3 start. LaTech held a tired Hawaii team to no touchdowns and “only” 300 or so yards last weekend in a 27-6 win. Honestly, I like Nevada here, provided they average out a bit.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 5

Based on my performance over the past couple of weeks, keep in mind the latter clause in the following disclaimer:

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Wisconsin @ Minnesota (ESPN): I really have no opinion on this game. None. I guess Wisconsin will probably win? I don’t know. I would say this is the least compelling game of the morning, but it’s got nothing on…
  • Arkansas State @ Iowa (ESPN2): this game. Keep in mind, ESPN picked this game before Iowa beat Penn State last weekend. How this got picked over Michigan-Michigan State (rivals!) or Ohio State-Indiana (3-1 vs. 3-1!) defies any logic I could possibly give. I shouldn’t have to say this, but, uh, Iowa should win.
  • Clemson @ Maryland (ESPNU): I’d even rather watch this than Arkansas State-Iowa. Now, the most likely outcome is that I’ll be asleep on my couch for most of these games anyway, but still. Anyway, it’s not like Maryland has been great the past few years, yet somehow it wins games like these for no apparent reason. Clemson should still win handily, though.
  • East Carolina @ Marshall (CBSCS): Marshall may be 3-1, but don’t let that fool you. They’re still not very good. To be fair, ECU hasn’t exactly impressed so far but played 2 BCS conference teams. I still like ECU here.
  • Michigan @ Michigan State (BTN): Michigan State’s unlucky streak continues, with their 8 point loss to Wisconsin actually being the largest margin of defeat they’ve suffered so far this year. That said, with 3 losses this has to feel like a season on the brink as their biggest (and heretofore, undefeated) rival that’s had all the bounces go their way so far rolls in. That said, at what point does it stop being luck and starts being an indicator that these teams are going in completely different directions this season? We’ll find for sure in East Lansing, but my hunch is that presents trends will continue with a Michigan victory.
  • Alabama @ Kentucky (SEC): As unfortunate as Tebow’s injury is, we also learned Kentucky isn’t quite ready to run with the big boys of the SEC yet. Alabama should take care of business.
  • Virginia @ North Carolina (Raycom): While UNC got dominated statistically by Tech last weekend, Virginia should present no such challenge. We’re talking about a team that gave up 200+ yards rushing to Southern Mississippi, here. UNC should be fine.

3:30:

  • Washington @ Notre Dame (NBC): Well, so much for that maybe being a really good team, eh U-dub? Losing by 20 to Stanford can do that. ND should win this one. Should.
  • California-Los Angeles @ Stanford (ABC/Gameplan): I don’t know if anyone noticed, but Stanford could go to 3-0 in the Pac-10 with a win here. Okay, they probably did, and then remembered that their victories are over Washington and the worst team in the conference, Washington State. Meanwhile, UCLA put all their OOC games first and won them all, with Tennessee the best among those. UCLA should, and probably will, win this game, but Stanford can keep their offense going as they have (they dominated Washington) they have a very good chance of making this a special season for the Cardinal.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Illinois (ESPN/ABC): As bad as Penn State’s loss last week was for their (and their conference’s) national title chances, Illinois should provide a welcome, refreshing respite. In other words, it’s not looking good in Urbana-Champaign for the Zooker.
  • Florida State @ Boston College (Gameplan/ESPN/ABC): I’m not sure where exactly Boston College found 400 yards of offense, but they used it to its full effect in the upset over Wake. Meanwhile, I (and no one else, I think) have no idea what the hell is going with FSU. They lost well to a good Miami team (despite last week’s result in Blacksburg), almost got upset by Jacksonville State, hung 54 on BYU (at Provo, nonetheless) and then lost badly to Groethe-less USF. Logically, BC just doesn’t have the offensive weapons to hang with FSU’s defense, but I just… I don’t know. I will pick FSU, but ugh.
  • New Mexico @ Texas Tech (FSN): Texas Tech gets a nice, tasty cupcake to get over the sting of losing to Houston. Considering Tulsa hung 44 on NMU, I’d say TTU should score at least 55.
  • North Carolina State @ Wake Forest (ESPNU): Well, NCSU beat Pitt last week basically because Pitt had no idea how to run a read-zone offense, which I guess isn’t terribly surprising but still. If Wake can not turn the ball over 3 times, especially not 8 yards from the goalline in overtime, this should win.
  • Air Force @ Navy (CBSCS): Leg 1 of the Commander-in-Chief’s trophy begins! AF comes in with a 3-1 record, with a DI-AA win and over the dregs of the Mountain West. Navy is 2-2 and seems to have lost focus after the close loss to Ohio State: they’ve beaten the bad teams but lost a very winnable game to Pitt. Anyway, if you like option football, WATCH THIS GAME. Also, I’ll take Navy.

7:00:

  • Oregon State @ Arizona State (Versus): ASU just never quite put it together against Georgia to produce a winning drive and honestly didn’t look that great. I haven’t seen Oregon State since the UNLV game, and since then they’re 0-2. I think OSU is slightly better offensively, though, but by Pac-10 standards this may be a close, low-scoring game. I like the Beavers anyway.
  • Mississippi @ Vanderbilt (ESPNU): Ole Miss confirmed last week what I think most of us already knew: they’re not a top-10 team. Before their hot finish last year, they even lost to Vandy! This Vandy outfit, though, isn’t nearly as lucky, and it took a very bad Rice squad to get them their first DI-A win. I’ll be rooting for the ‘Dores, but Ole Miss should win this one.
  • South Carolina State @ South Carolina (ESPN Classic): I considered not listing this one, but it technically a game with a DI-A team on TV. I think it’s fairly obvious who I’ll pick.
  • Ohio State @ Indiana (BTN): Ohio State beat up on a extremely hapless Illinois squad last weekend. This Indiana team is a little less, er, hapless, and should at least providing some resistance. I didn’t say the Hoosiers would win, though.

7:30:

  • Texas Agricultural and Mechanical vs. Arkansas (@Arlington, TX; ESPN2): Ah, more games in Jerry Jone’s new Intergalactic Space Palace. This old SWC series gets back off the ground in what should be a high-scoring contest. TAMU may be 3-0 but that is against an extremely soft schedule, where as Arkansas actually played a team with a defense last weekend. They probably won’t on Saturday, though, and should take the first game in this renewed series.
  • Tulsa @ Rice (CBSCS): I don’t know if anyone noticed, but Rice is not a very good football team this year. Tulsa should win easily.
  • Georgia Tech @ Mississippi State (SEC/CSS): GT makes its return trip to Miss State, a year after crushing them in Atlanta. (Fun fact: despite being in the SEC with both Ole Miss and Miss State for 32 years (and in two other conference before that, dating back to the 1890’s), GT has never played in the state of Mississippi. In fact, GT and Miss State never met in SEC play, and GT met Ole Miss twice during that time span, though the second time was in the Sugar Bowl.) This year’s outfit, though, has a new coach and is actually somewhat competent this year. Perhaps most optimistically for GT, they allowed 390 yards on the ground to Auburn, but you can flip that around and say they only allowed 33 and 30 to Vandy and LSU, respectively.
    In the near upset over LSU last week, Miss State dominated statistically but couldn’t punch in the winning score despite 4 attempts within LSU 2 yard line, including what I thought was a very strange call (the 3rd down pass attempt that was miraculously broken up). Overall, Miss State runs a spread-option offense with essentially three players, one at each major skill position. Defensively, Miss State has had success in the last two games stopping the run, though it could be argued both of those teams are also just not very good at running the ball.
    Defensively, I believe GT will stay with the 4-3 that had success last week against UNC and look to stop Miss State’s run game. Offensively, Tech still has issues on the interior of the offensive line. While we dominated UNC last weekend, the game wasn’t put away until well into the 4th quarter as Tech left a bunch of points on the field with a few stalled drives in Carolina territory and two missed field goals. Tech may go with a new kicker this week, as we also had several kick-offs out-of-bounds that UNC fortunately wasn’t really able to capitalize on.
    Overall, I expect this to be a close, but high scoring game. Hopefully the good guys win.
    Also, to whoever at Comcast SportsNet Bay Area/California made the decision to pick up the SEC TV package: THANK YOU!

7:45: Auburn @ Tennessee (ESPN): The line on this game is 2.5-3, which is basically crediting Tennessee for home field advantage. I’m honestly not sure what to think about it either, but I can’t help the feeling that Auburn’s rejuvenated offense will carry the day while Crompton continues turning the ball over at inopportune times.

8:00:

  • Southern California @ California (ABC/Gameplan): The 8:00 time slot is a perfect reflection of when these matchups were set two weeks ago. USC-Cal looked to be a major contest with the fate of the Pac-10 on the line, as well as national title implications. For now, it’s strictly in the former category. To me, this feels like the game every year where USC starts to rehab from its yearly terrible loss, so I’m taking the Trojans. That said, this game can still be valuable for Cal – but make no mistake, the loser of this game will probably be looking to the Holiday Bowl (at best) instead of the Fiesta.
  • Oklahoma @ University of Miami (Gameplan/ABC): This is still an important inter-sectional matchup, but with Miami laying an egg in Blacksburg last weekend it’s declined a bit. OU hasn’t had any trouble scoring without Sam Bradford (whom they still lack for today’s game), but I feel safe in saying that Miami is probably still a little better than Idaho State and Tulsa. I think Miami will rebound a bit from last weekend, but probably not enough to topple the Sooners.

10:30: Colorado State @ Idaho (ESPNU): On Thursday, I had a message on my DVR that Comcast had just added ESPNU HD, which is about the only reason I can think of to watch this. Well, there is another: it’s being played at the Kibbie Dome! Fun facts: it was originally an outdoor stadium that was enclosed; it was the second dome built for sports in Idaho, after Idaho State’s own Holt Arena; seating 16,000, it is the smallest stadium in Division I-A (which is why, on occasion, Idaho plays home games in nearby Pullman, home of Washington State); when used for basketball, it is known as the Cowan Spectrum. This is all at least tuning in for a few minutes for. As for the actual game? Well, at 3-1 Idaho already has as many wins as it did in the past two season combined. CSU is also 3-1, but both resumes are overall equally unspectacular. (Giving CSU credit for beating Colorado would probably be a little much at this point.) A quick glance at the stats show you probably shouldn’t expect a whole lot of defense. That said, I’ll still take Colorado State.

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This Week in College Football: Week 5

Introducing the new “This Week in College Football”. With the profileration of conferences desperate for ESPN’s money and exposure, we now have college ball on practically everyday of the week. So each week, I’ll write up a short post about this week’s weekday games in the same vein as my weekend column.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Wednesday

8:00: Hawaii @ Louisiana Tech (ESPN2): Hawaii’s crazy mainland adventure continues, as they make a stop at the WAC’s easternmost outpost. To put it mildly, LaTech has been bad, sporting the expected beatdown from Auburn and a 32-14 beatdown from Navy. Hawaii, meanwhile, beat Wazzou and only lost to UNLV on a touchdown in the final minute. I’ll take the Warriors here.

Thursday

7:30: Colorado @ West Virginia (ESPN): WVU’s not great or anything, but I do think they can beat an extremely hapless CU squad. Dan Hawkins is pretty much just hoping to keep his job at this point, I’d imagine, despite last week’s easy win over Wyoming.

8:00: Southern Mississippi @ Alabama-Birmingham (CBSCS): Things looked promising for UAB, as they started off the season with a 20 point win over Rice. As it turns out, though, Rice and UAB are probably the two worst teams in C-USA this year. The key for USM will be shaking off the disappointment of being a touchdown away from their second BCS skin of the year and taking care of business.

Friday

8:00: Pittsburgh @ Louisville (ESPN2): The fact that I will probably watch at least a portion of this game on Friday is extremely sad, in my opinion. Pitt joined a spate of teams last week that couldn’t run two minute drills to save their lives or otherwise screwed up in the red zone (looking at you, Wake Forest and Texas Tech, among others). Don’t let the records fool you: UL’s schedule has been much tougher than Pitt’s to this point and there’s not really any reason right now to think Pitt is better than UL. Will the Wannstache prevail in another Krag-tastic loss? Eh, probably not.

Tune in later this week, or early this weekend, for my full set of picks for Saturday!

You Can Take Your “Blueprint” And….

Sometime during the summer, people who looked back on last year’s UNC game decided that UNC defended us “well” and had an idea how to stop the option. I contented that they obviously hadn’t watched the game or looked at the stats other than the final score (28-7).

Unfortunately, before I could start the reverse trend, it got picked up in the media and combined with last week’s debacle at Miami everything just snowballed. Now everyone believed it!

And, well, have a look at some stats:

Gee, GT’s stats look awfully similar, don’t you think? Especially in terms of rushing yards? Notice the biggest single difference? Yeah, that’s right, turnovers. GT muffed a punt and fumbled the ball, both leading directly to UNC touchdowns.

Of course, there were other factors that caused the opposite outcome this time as well. We basically never let them have the ball, which meant the defense played well (especially against the run, still need a little work on the pass rush). Also, Nesbitt had an excellent day passing, completing 63% of his passes plus a couple of balls that should’ve been caught.

All-in-all, a good win, and with Miami getting routed in Blacksburg, the Coastal is open once again.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 4

This is going up late and it’ll be pretty short. Apologies, I’ve just been swamped at work lately.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Michigan State @ Wisconsin (ESPN): While these teams have diametrically opposed offenses (Wisconsin is a traditional Big Ten “3 yards and a cloud of dust” kind of team, Mich. State likes to throw it around), neither style has really gotten then anywhere. The Badgers are 3-0, yet it doesn’t really feel that way: their combined margin of victory against their DI-A opponents so far is 11 points, and those opponents were Northern Illinois and Fresno State (in OT, even). Michigan State is basically that, but the other way, with two losses by a combined 5 points, to Central Michigan and Notre Dame. More importantly for both, perhaps, is that they’re 0-0 in the Big Ten. I honestly think either team could win this game, but so for the sake of picking someone I’ll take Wisconsin.
  • Indiana @ Michigan (ESPN2): Through processes that I don’t fully understand, Indiana is 3-0. Oh wait, they’ve beaten Eastern Kentucky, Western Michigan, and Akron. Well, that certainly helps. Michigan is also 3-0, and features a win over ND and a drubbing of their directional patsies, unlike the Hoosiers. I think I’ll take Michigan.
  • Southern Mississippi @ Kansas (FSN): USM got themselves a win over a BCS team last weekend by taking Virginia, though UVA is so bad this year I’m not even sure that’s an upset. (In case you’re wondering, the Don’t Fire Al Groh guys are back.) All that said, Kansas should handle USM pretty easily.
  • South Florida @ Florida State (ESPNU): USF had a glimmer of hope in this game, I think, but then 5th year senior QB Matt Grothe went down for the count, and so did USF’s chances of beating FSU.
  • Minnesota @ Northwestern (BTN): NU QB Mike Kafka surely felt the pains of existence after Northwestern’s defense, or lack thereof, couldn’t stop Syracuse from kicking the go ahead field goal last weekend. While Northwestern has the Big Ten’s first or second best passing attack (depending on what stat you use), Minnesota hasn’t excelled at much of anything and got pounded by weekend by Cal. Since the transitive property doesn’t apply to college football, I feel safe predicting a Northwestern win here.
  • Louisiana State @ Mississippi State (SEC/Gameplan): This is already taking too long. LSU. Next!
  • North Carolina @ Georgia Tech (Raycom/Gameplan): I intended to write a separate article for this game, but unfortunately I never had a chance to get around to it. First, let me dispel the notion that last year’s UNC team had some sort of magical option-stopping effect, as it’s not true. While Tech only had 7 points, they still ran for 326 yards and 423 yards overall and had 20 first downs. What killed them? 3 turnovers, including two fumbles that led directly to touchdowns. Fast forward to this year, and turnovers have been the least of our worries so far. More worryingly, the Jackets are failing to block anyone consistently, whether it be in the trenches or on the edge. The only thing running worse than the offense right now is the defense. While you should be buying into the Miami hype, Tech hasn’t shown the ability to pressure any quarterback this year.
    While UNC’s defensive line is probably not as good as Clemson’s or Miami’s, their front 7 as a unit are probably just as good or better. This makes Tech rediscovering how to block all the more important this week. On the flip side, UNC’s offense has been inconsistent. It looked fine against ECU but horrible in the 12-10 debacle at Connecticut. They won’t pass a whole bunch, relying instead on the their very good running backs and a steady pocket presence from upperclassman Tyler Yates.
    Tech has made a variety of changes this past week to try to mitigate issues. On the offensive side of the ball, there is at least one new offensive line starter, and I would expect the A-back rotation to change a bit. On defense, Tech will abandon the 4-2-5 and switch to the 4-3, hoping the extra linebacker can help put some more pressure on the QB. Even though we got torched by Miami, I really don’t think our secondary is that bad – not taking anything away from Jacory Harris, but when you have absolutely no pressure you can always find the open man. Hopefully we can at least touch the QB this week.
    In terms of the ACC race, Tech is already down and will, for all intents and purposes, be out if they lose this game, though it will be really darn tough anyway if Miami wins in Blacksburg. (Have I mentioned the fact that our division race will practically be decided before the end of September? What the hell, ACC?)
    So, with that, I will close. Go Jackets!

3:30:

  • Arkansas @ Alabama (CBS): Arkansas had an early off week, meaning this is only their third game. That said, I’m not sure I can come up with a good reason they’ll beat Alabama.
  • California @ Oregon (ABC/Gameplan): Speaking of huge, early conference games, how about this Pac-10 game? I know most will think they’ve heard this before, but USC has some real issues this year. Meanwhile, Cal has its first chance in a long time to not lay an egg in a big game and establish themselves as the challenger in this conference this year. I still don’t really have a read on this year’s Oregon team, but I do have a read that Jahvid best is really good at running with a football. If Cal can hold on, and I think they will, go ahead and mark October 31st on your calendar.
  • Illinois @ Ohio State (ESPN/ABC): Stupid early off weeks. Here’s what I know about Illinois: they got slaughtered by Mizzou in week one and beat DI-AA Illinois State two weeks ago. Thanks guys. I’ll take OSU anyway because I’m lazy and it’s like 3AM here.
  • University of Miami @ Virginia Tech (Gameplan/ESPN/ABC): Is “DA U” back? Well, they won last year’s ugly contest 16-14 before laying an egg against us the next week, but before that had lost 4 of 5. Suffice it to say, this is the best defense Miami will have faced to date, and it will be interesting to see how Jacory Harris handles the blitzes Bud Foster will throw at him. This is my game of the day, as we need a VPI win to have any realistic chance of still winning our division, but a Miami win produces a legit top-10 team from the ACC going into next week’s contest with Oklahoma. And just based on what I’ve seen so far this year, I think Miami can break through and put enough points on the board to get past Virginia Tech’s scrappy, keep-it-close style of football.
  • Texas-El Paso @ Texas (FSN): I’d ordinarily have something witty about concession stand spreads here, but I’ll take Texas.
  • Pittsburgh @ North Carolina State (ESPNU): Let’s do the “what do I know?” game again. NCSU is 2-1. Both the wins are over DI-AA teams. The loss was a 7-3 debacle against South Carolina. Pitt is 3-0 against Youngstown State, Buffalo, and Navy. I’d say that’s about a push. I’ll go ahead and take NCSU here, but if they win this game they’ll lose to Duke in two weeks or something like that.
  • Western Kentucky @ Navy (CBSCS): Navy gets back on track against the Hilltoppers. Did you know I get this channel in HD, though? It’s pretty awesome.

6:00: Florida @ Kentucky (ESPN2): Blah blah swine flu blah blah Kentucky not that bad blah blah Florida still has Tim Tebow, last I checked.

7:00:

  • Arizona State @ Georgia (ESPNU): This is Arizona State’s first game ever at a SEC stadium, though not the first time UGA’s ever hosted a Pac-10 team. That said, ASU may feel right at home with the lack of defense. Take the over, and, begrudgingly, UGA.
  • Ball State @ Auburn (SEC/Gameplan): Hey, Ball State, remember when you undefeated last year going in to the MAC title game and getting some national attention? And then you laid an egg against Buffalo and have lost 5 straight now. Yeah… now that Auburn has seemingly found an offense (don’t ask me how) they should take this pretty easily.

7:30:

  • Arizona @ Oregon State (Versus): Arizona keeps trying to be respectable, and then they do things like “losing to Iowa”. Meanwhile, Oregon State lost to a quietly good Cincy team last weekend, but should recover sufficiently to beat Arizona.
  • Louisville @ Utah (CBSCS): So, Utah had their longest unbeaten streak snapped quite rudely last weekend by Oregon. I think this game will be interesting, but I think Utah can still regain some respect and win this one.

8:00:

  • Iowa @ Pennsylvania State (ABC): I just refuse to believe Iowa is anything other than mediocre, despite the 3-0 record. Of course, Penn State’s schedule is arguably just as weak but they at least took care of their patsies how they should. Not sure why this is the primetime game. Penn State, easy.
  • Notre Dame @ Purdue (ESPN): So Notre Dame isn’t as good as I though, oh well. I do know Purdue is as bad as I think, though, and probably won’t win this game.

9:15: Texas Tech @ Houston (ESPN2): Sound the sirens, because these are two of the best Air Raid offenses in the country going at it right here. (To read more about their offenses, see here. You’ll feel smarter just by doing so.) Of course, Texas Tech didn’t exactly put up the show we all expected last weekend, while Houston has just been kind of doing it’s thing so far. I expect both teams to score at least 40 points here and this game probably won’t end until 1 AM Eastern. That said, I think TTU recovers from last week and eeks out a win here.

10:15: Washington State @ Southern California (FSN): It’s Wazzou. It’s a vulnerable USC team! But they’re not that vulnerable. USC here.

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