2014 World Cup Update: Commentary and Selected Scenarios for 10/11

It’s that time again. In many confederations we’re now in the home-stretch of qualifying. So let’s go confederation-by-confederation as usual and breakdown what we’re looking at.

Before we begin, though, I have updated many of the resources on the site here, including the status of every member of FIFA and the “Everything” chart.

AFC

Last month, Jordan clinched advancement to the inter-confederation playoff by defeating Uzbekistan 9-8 in penalties after each side drew 2-2 on aggregate. It’s a disappointing result for the Uzbeks, as at one time they were leading their group and only lost out on qualifying directly on goal difference with South Korea. What will they be haunted by? The own goal in Seoul back in June that led to a 1-0 loss? Allowing Qatar to score before they realized that they needed goals, triggering a furious comeback but ultimately coming up short despite the 5-1 win? Or the two misses in penalties against Jordan?

CAF

Saturday and Sunday mark the beginnings of the final play-off matches for Africa. 5 ties for 5 spots in Brazil. The draw?

Cote d’Ivoire Senegal
Ethiopia Nigeria
Tunisia Cameroon
Ghana Egypt
Burkina Faso Algeria

It’s hard not to root for Egypt, and not just because that means if they advance the US can’t lose to Ghana again. And it’s not the Bob Bradley revenge angle either. It’s because, and SI’s Grant Wahl explains, Bradley is the right man for the job, even after he was no longer the right man for his homeland.

CONCACAF

Costa Rica and the United States have clinched, and I still love watching these highlights from last month:

(I still get excited when I see the first Eddie Johnson header and see it get saved.)

So let’s look at the table and talk scenarios.

Team W D L GF GA Diff Pts
United States 5 1 2 10 6 +4 16
Costa Rica 4 3 1 11 5 +6 15
Honduras 3 2 3 10 10 0 11
Panama 1 5 2 7 9 -2 8
Mexico 1 5 2 4 6 -2 8
Jamaica 0 4 4 3 9 -6 4
  • Honduras will advance directly to the 2014 World Cup Final with a win and a Panama-Mexico draw. (This also means that Mexico and Panama would be able to do no better than qualify for the Inter-Confederation Playoff against New Zealand.)
  • Jamaica is completely eliminated with any draw or loss.

If there is a winner in Mexico City, then they are in good position to try to catch Honduras on goals on Tuesday, though Honduras will play Jamaica next week so that may still be difficult. Of course, if Costa Rica is following the same philosophy as the US, then Hondurans should have their work cut out for them even at home. Nonetheless, there’s a good chance the US game against Panama on Tuesday will matter, which leads to the question: who will be this cycle’s Jonathan Bornstein? (Let’s also snicker a little about how I asserted that Mexico will qualify. Whoops!)

OFC

I’m pretty sure the All Whites just want to know where they’re going to fly to already.

CONMEBOL

I’m not going to put the table here, but what you need to know is that Argentina has qualified and tat Colombia and Chile have clinched at least a spot in the play-off. Peru, Bolivia, and Paraguay have all been eliminated. This leaves 4 teams vying for the three direct spots, plus Venezuela for the play-off spot.

Scenarios!

  • Venezuela will be eliminated if Ecuador-Uruguay is a draw.
  • Venezuela will be eliminated if they lose or draw to Paraguay.
  • Colombia will directly qualify with a win over Chile.
  • Colombia will directly qualify with a win or draw against Chile and an Ecuador-Uruguay draw.
  • Chile will directly qualify with a win over Colombia and an Ecuador-Uruguay draw.

UEFA

I’m just going to go group-by-group here.

Group A

  • Belgium will directly qualify with a win or draw over Croatia.

Group B

Italy has already qualified, leaving a 4-way fight for second place. Unfortunately, having to take the ranking of the 2nd-place teams into account makes things too complicated for me to be willing to figure out. The teams in question are Bulgaria, Denmark, the Czech Republic, and Armenia. I will say I’d be pretty crestfallen if my Danish soccer-playing doppelganger doesn’t make it to Brazil.

Group C

  • Germany will qualify with a win or draw over Ireland.
  • Germany will qualify with a loss or draw by Sweden against Austria.

Group D

The Netherlands have already qualified, leaving Hungary, Turkey, and Romania fighting for second.

Group E

  • Switzerland will qualify with a win over Albania.
  • Switzerland will qualify with a draw and an Iceland loss or draw to Cyprus.

Group F

  • Russia will directly qualify with a win over Luxembourg and a Portugal loss to Israel.
  • Israel will be eliminated with a draw or loss to Portugal.

Group G

Both Bosnia and Greece have 19 points, so neither can clinch today. However, Bosnia is 15 goals better in the goal difference column, so Greece would need a ton of goals if they wound up tied in the end. Greece plays Slovakia while Bosnia gets Liechtenstein (and thus a really good chance for them to further pad that goal difference).

Group H

Only Moldova and San Marino have been eliminated in this group, so that means everything’s still in play. However, there is a scenario where one team can qualify directly.

  • England will clinch with a win over Montenegro and an Ukraine loss to Poland.

Group I

Spain and France are both sitting on 14 points, however, Spain has played one less game. They will play that one game today against Belarus, however, a win does not allow them to clinch just yet.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 6

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

11:30: Air Force @ Navy (CBS): This reminds me that I need to call and see if I can still do my Global Entry interview on Tuesday. Oh, and yeah, Navy looks like a much more solid squad this year.

Noon:

  • Maryland @ Florida State (ESPN): Maryland? Competent? I’ve having trouble dealing with the subject. I’m getting the sneaking suspicion that reality will hit them pretty hard in this one.
  • Michigan State @ Iowa (ESPN2): This could well be a 5-3 final score. The scary thing is that both coaches might be okay with that. I’ll take Sparty to get the 5.
  • Texas Tech @ Kansas (FS1): Two weeks ago Kansas notched their first victory of a FBS school since 2011. Will the Jayhawks be able to win their first Big 12 contest since defeating Colorado 52-45 on Novebemer 6, 2010? Probably not.
  • Rutgers @ Southern Methodist (ESPNEWS): Not seeing a lot of hope for SMU in this one.
  • Illinois @ Nebraska (ESPNU): Two sets of typical October 3-1 teams here: three wins over inferior competition and one beatdown by the best team they’ve played. So I’ll fall back to pre-season convention wisdom, which held that Nebraska was okay but kind of unpredictable and that Illinois would be terrible.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Indiana (BTN): Boy howdy Indiana still isn’t very good, but this is a win they need if they’re going to get 6-6. So they probably won’t.
  • Ball State @ Virginia (ACC/FSN): I really wanted to pick 4-1 Ball State here, but I looked at the schedule and they lost to North Texas. Then again, UVA is pretty bad. So don’t count the Cardinals out. But for the sake of doing the thing where I pick someone I’m going with UVA.

12:30: North Carolina @ Virginia Tech (ACC): Well, VPI still can’t really score any points, but so far this season it’s not apparent Carolina can either. Combine that with VPI’s defense and this could be the most lopsided 17-3 game in history.

3:30:

  • Georgia @ Tennessee (CBS): Managing to beat South Alabama by only a touchdown does not engender a great deal of confidence in the Voluneers’ ability to win this game. Not a great deal at all.
  • Clemson @ Syracuse (ABC/ESPN2): Well, unless they’re confused by having to play in a dome, I don’t think the Tigers are going to have a lot of issues here.
  • Minnesota @ Michigan (ABC/ESPN2): Losing to Iowa 23-7 is a pretty go way to earn the “worst 4-1 team in the country label”. The Gophers are probably looking to the Indiana, Penn State, and Michigan State games as their best shot to get those other two wins. That said, it turns out that this Michigan team maybe isn’t very good?
  • Kansas State @ Oklahoma State (ABC): The fact of the matter that so far this season Oklahoma State’s high-flying act has only really been on display against vastly inferior opponents. Against Mississippi State and West Virginia, they averaged 25.5 points, while against UTSA and Lamar they averaged 57.5. That said, it’s not apparently how K-State is going to be able to work enough magic to score 26.
  • Georgia Tech @ Miami (ESPNU): The sound the Georgia Tech offense made last week against VPI was something akin to a “thud”. I figure that was a 50/50 game: the loss was 50% our offense continually shooting itself in the foot and 50% VPI’s excellent defensive line. After all, “physical superiority cancels all theories”. The team other than the Hokies that has been adept the past few years at proving that point has been Miami, which a defense chock-full of prospects and blue-chippers. It still almost feels like karma for the beatdown Tech laid on Miami back in 2008, where we piled up 472 yards of rushing en route to a 41-23 win. We haven’t won since, the closest being last year’s overtime loss where in we frittered away a 4th quarter lead and turned it into a loss.
    The hopes against Miami come down to the usual things. Hoping that we can get any sort of rush on the passer and that the secondary will be good enough to cover their physical receivers. Hoping that their defense, full of those self-same blue-chip athletes, ignores their coaches and try to fly around to the ball, getting out-schemed by the offense. Hope that the line can do their job well enough for the option to work (which was the most glaring probably against VPI).
  • East Carolina @ Middle Tennessee State (FSN): The main thing ECU probably needs to worry about is not being hyped off coming off their 55-31 beatdown of UNC last week.
  • Rice @ Tulsa (CBSS): I guess I’m going to have to go with Rice here?
  • North Carolina State @ Wake Forest (ACC/FSN): I wonder how many times this year I will say something akin to “there are occasionally good Wake Forest teams, but this isn’t one of them”? Count this as one.

4:00: Washington State @ California (FS1): Considering the coaches involved, I suspect what many are hoping for a 55-50 explosion of offense. That said, there’s a couple factors here. First, it’s almost impossible to know how bad or good Cal actually is since all three of their losses have been to ranked teams (Northwestern, Ohio State, and Oregon). I’m tentatively going with Wazzou here.

6:00: Oregon @ Colorado (PAC12): Oregon.

7:00:

  • Louisiana State @ Mississippi State (ESPN): LSU.
  • Arkansas @ Florida (ESPN2): I’m sure if he had his way, Will Muschamp would win games by having the other team score negative points, so he could win like 0 to –21. Either way, Florida will probably be good for somewhere around 20 points and the Razorbacks for less than that.
  • Mississippi @ Auburn (ESPNU): I don’t know why Ole Miss is ranked, but they’ll probably beat Auburn.
  • Texas Christian @ Oklahoma (FOX): I just don’t see how TCU is going to be able to score enough to keep up with the Sooners.

7:30:

  • Arizona State vs. Notre Dame (@Arlington, TX; NBC): At this point, the evidence seems to show that ND is kind of mediocre this year. I like the Sun Devils here quite a bit.
  • Louisiana Tech @ Texas-El Paso (CBSS): Well, if you ever wanted to see a game between two teams with a combined 2-7 record, boy howdy does CBS Sports ever have the game for you! If LaTech had any semblance of last year’s offense they’d win easily, but they don’t and so they probably won’t.
  • Kentucky @ South Carolina (SEC/FSN): Hard to see this ending well for the Wildcats.

8:00:

  • Ohio State @ Northwestern (ABC): May be the game of the day, but realistically, I’m sure that the Wildcats will put up a good fight but in the end come up short.
  • West Virginia @ Baylor (FS1): Try to follow along here: WVU scores zero points against Maryland one week, and then busts out for 30 against Oklahoma State and wins. Then again, 30 isn’t going to be enough to beat Baylor. The only question for the Bears is the fact they haven’t played anyone yet, so maybe they’ll only score 50 instead of 70.

10:30: Washington @ Stanford (ESPN): This is probably really the game of the day, a West Coast matchup between two undefeated teams with solid resumes. That said, it’s hard to shake the feeling of dominance that Stanford usually imparts on their victims. Hard to see how U-Dub will be able to come out on top of this one.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 5

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.
Noon:

  • South Carolina @ Central Florida (ABC): I’m sure this is just here because ABC/ESPN was happy they could get a SEC team on the broadcast network for a noon game. ‘Cause otherwise it’s hard to see much of a chance for UCF.
  • Oklahoma State @ West Virginia (ESPN): Stats You Probably Don’t Expect to Read: WVU has scored seven points against FBS competition this season. Yeah, it’s hard to see how a team that got shut out by Maryland is going to score enough to keep up with Oklahoma State.
  • Northern Illinois @ Purdue (ESPN2): Let’s just say that I like NIU’s chances to get to 4-0 and notch their second victory against a Big Ten team.
  • Southern Methodist @ Texas Christian (FS1): TCU should just be too good for their cross-town rivals.
  • Miami @ South Florida (ESPNU): USF is ranked 121st in the country in scoring offense. That is not good, but that’s what happens when you lose to the McNeese States of the world 53-21. (Much less the Florida Internationals of the world.) The ‘Canes should take this one going away, as they should anyway since unlike USF they actually are in a geographical entity one would reasonably call “South Florida”.
  • Miami @ Illinois (BTN): In years past, I would’ve had fun with this, but it appears the Illini might not be completely awful this year.
  • South Alabama @ Tennessee (SEC): Tennessee should be able to take care of business here.

12:30:

  • East Carolina @ North Carolina (ACC): UNC should be good enough to contain ECU.
  • Virginia @ Pittsburgh (ACC): Pitt gave up 55 points to Duke last week, but a) they did end up winning by scoring 58 and b) Duke’s offense is probably better than UVA’s. I like the Panthers’ chances here.

2:00: Navy @ Western Kentucky (ESPNEWS): I like Navy’s chances here, especially with WKU’s defensive issues.
3:00: Colorado @ Oregon State (PAC12): Oregon State still isn’t very good or anything, but Colorado is probably still worse.
3:30:

  • Oklahoma @ Notre Dame (NBC): Except against WVU, it’s all gone according to plan for the Sooners this season. Will they be able to carry that and their so far stingy defense into South Bend? Well, in the two games after the Michigan game, ND has looked like they’re out of ideas on offense, which I don’t think bodes well for their chances here.
  • Louisiana State @ Georgia (CBS): With LSU now doing the offense thing in addition to the defense thing, I’m not sure UGA will be able to keep up.
  • Iowa @ Minnesota (ABC/ESPN2): UMN is 4-0 based on the strength of a great run game and a slew of thus far awful opponents. Their first Big Ten game will provide their stiffest test so far, but it’s not because Iowa is great or anything. I would probably avoid this game unless it’s close late or something. I’ll with UMN for the heck of it.
  • Florida State @ Boston College (ABC/ESPN2): Boston College’s 35-7 loss was a comforting affirmation that at least they’re still awful. FSU should be able to produce a similar, if not better, scoreline.
  • Wake Forest @ Clemson (ESPNU): Things are going to happen here. Bad things, if you’re a Wake Forest fan. 
  • Texas-El Paso @ Colorado State (CBSS): By the thinnest of margins, UTEP appears to be the better team here.

4:00:

  • Army vs. Louisiana Tech (@Dallas, TX; FS1): I wouldn’t have thought so at the outset of the season, but I actually like Army’s chances here, mostly because LaTech is very, very bad.
  • Houston @ Texas-San Antonio (FSN): Houston should win easily.

6:30: Mississippi @ Alabama (ESPN): This is a reminder that while it may appear that the Alabama Death Machine is not as intimidating as in years past, that is a purely relative term. This team is still very good, and frankly the only opponent on their schedule I expect to provide any resistance is LSU.
7:00:

  • Arizona @ Washington (FOX): There’s a reason why one 3-0 team is ranked and the other isn’t, and it comes down entirely to scheduling. I expect the Huskies to be able to ake care of business here. (That said, I do find it kind of amusing that on the other side of town, their normally cross-state rival will be playing a game at CenturyLink Field a few hours later.)
  • Texas Agricultural and Mechanical @ Arkansas (ESPN2): Losing by four to Rutgers does not bode well for Arkansas’s chances against Manziel and Co.
  • Florida @ Kentucky (ESPNU): Florida.

7:30: Alabama-Birmingham @ Vanderbilt (SEC/FSN): Vandy should be able to get back on track against their neighbors down I-65.
8:00:

  • Wisconsin @ Ohio State (ABC): This is the Buckeyes’ first chance to prove they belong with the national frontrunners, due to their pathetic non-conference schedule. Provided they have Braxton Miller, though, OSU should possess enough dynamism on offense to be able take a lead, and they have a good enough defense to hold it.
  • Air Force @ Nevada (CBSS): Boy howdy, it is not looking good for the Air Force academy this year. I’m going with Nevada, even.

10:00: Stanford vs. Washington State (@Seattle, WA; ESPN): Pretty sure this is still technically a home game for Wazzou. Anyway that probably won’t affect the impending beatdown they’re about to receive.
10:15: Southern Mississippi @ Boise State (ESPNU): This isn’t a great Boise team, but they don’t need to be to beat USM.
10:30:

  • Southern California @ Arizona State (ESPN2): Utah State is a good team and all, but nonetheless I think it’s fair to say that USC probably should’ve won by more than a field goal. But despite that I just cannot pick them to lose to most other Pac-12 teams, at least not yet. If they do lose here, they may have a new coach next week.
  • California @ Oregon (PAC12): Cal is better this year, but not better enough to go into Eugene and get a win.

This Week in College Football: Week 5

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Thursday
7:30:

  • Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech (ESPN): Thanks to the weirdness of last season, this isn’t the guarantee it used to be vis-a-vis determining the Coastal representative in the championship game. Nonetheless, it remains a major sticking point on the schedule. Since VPI joined the ACC, we’ve only beaten them twice: once in Blacksburg in 2006 (on the back of Calvin Johnson), and the upset at home that paved the way to the ACCCG in 2009 (VPI was ranked in the top 5 at the time).
    Arguably, the most talked about aspect of this game isn’t what either team does well, it’s more about how bad VPI’s offense has been. Which is a shame, because the flip-side is a true strength-versus-strength matchup. VPI has been one of the few teams to keep the GT offense in check since 2008, with Bud Foster willing to mix things up on his defense (i.e., using smaller, faster defensive linemen that can evade the cut block and get to the ball carrier).
    GT’s defense has been “okay” I would say so far. Last week was their first real test, and the first half was a mixed back. The second half, though, showed improvement in the pass rush and in the coverage game, as we realized that UNC’s best receiver was their tight end and adjusted accordingly. I have to say that the last thing I want, though, is for Logan Thomas to remember how tall he is, as I still feel like two years ago the dude just sort of yelled “TIMBER!”, fell over, and got first downs.
  • Iowa State @ Tulsa (FS1): Well, Fox Sports 1 has to start somewhere I guess, but I’m not sure this is the optimal choice. Neither of these teams can really score or play defense, so this could well be a puntfest. I’m going with Tulsa scoring the “upset” at home.

Friday
9:00:

  • Utah State @ San Jose State (ESPN): Looking this up just made me remember that the Mountain West’s new divisions are named “Mountain” and “West”. Which is actually fine geographically but seriously what’s wrong with “East”? You were halfway right! Anyway, the game. SJSU still doesn’t look very good, but they are better. The Aggies are still even better, though.
  • Middle Tennessee State @ Brigham Young (ESPNU): MTSU has started well in C-USA, scoring wins over Memphis and Florida Atlantic. Oh, right, those teams are awful and they lost to UNC by 20. They might do the same to BYU.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 4

Noon:

  • North Carolina @ Georgia Tech (ESPN): UNC will be the first quality opponent we’ve played all year. They boast the first real challenging offense we will face, and thus the first real test for our new 4-3 look defense. The claimed strength of our defense is the secondary, but that’s mostly theory at the moment I’d say. We’ll know for sure in 9 hours or so. The forecast calls for rain, which I would ordinarily say favors a running offense, but for an option offense it’s sort of a mixed blessing as a wet ball doesn’t make an option pitch easier to catch than a throw. Either way this contest goes, I don’t really expect a repeat of last year’s 68-50 scoreline.
  • San Jose State @ Minnesota (ESPN2): Minnesota.
  • Louisiana Tech @ Kansas (FS1): It’s hard to make any definitive statements about this game other than that it’ll probably be a pretty awful football contest. If this were last year’s Louisiana Tech squad with last year’s Louisiana Tech coach I would have the Bulldogs in a rout. But it’s not, and so far this year they’ve been blown out by NC State and have lost to Tulane. Tulane is a not a very good football team. I think I will have to go with KU to get their first FBS win since September 10, 2011. (Fun fact: their current FBS losing streak started with a 66-24 rout by Georgia Tech in Lawrence.)
  • Marshall @ Virginia Tech (ESPNU): VPI should be able to score enough to beat these guys, though if their defense is as good as it seems then 3 points should be enough. 
  • Vanderbilt @ Massachusetts (ESPNEWS): I’m still fascinated by the concept of live football on ESPNEWS, but it’s a bit baffling at the same time because I’m pretty sure there’s lot of folks out there who don’t get ESPNEWS in HD or at all. Either way, Vandy in a walkover.
  • Wake Forest @ Army (CBSS): More mediocre-to-bad football here. Let’s pick Army just for the hell of it, because if there’s any “major” team they could potentially run over it’d be Wake.

12:30:

  • Pittsburgh @ Duke (ACC): I have Duke penciled in as going to a bowl again, mostly because I think they can go 4-0 against their out-of-conference schedule (though Navy may give them fits, we’ll see in a few weeks) and probably picking up two ACC wins. This isn’t one of them.
  • Tulane @ Syracuse (ACC/FSN): The hits just keep one coming. The ‘Cuse aren’t very good, but they shouldn’t need to be to beat Tulane.

3:00: Houston vs. Rice (@Houston, TX; FSN): I wish I go back to different parts of the past 10 years and pick a different Rice and Houston team for this game, but alas, I cannot. Stuck in the present, I’ll have to go with the Cougars.
3:30:

  • Michigan State @ Notre Dame (NBC): This is probably the best game of the day. I still don’t really “believe” in Sparty’s offense, and it’s almost impossible to judge their defense at this point owing to a lack of data. Notre Dame is probably just “okay” on both sides of the ball, though probably slightly more okay on offense that defense. So if it’s coming down to who is likely to actually score 28 points, then I have to give the edge to the Irish.
  • Tennessee @ Florida (CBS): This game will probably because slugfest, but if there’s any team that can win a 9-7 game this year it’s the Gators. 
  • Purdue @ Wisconsin (ABC/ESPN2): Well, I’ll bet that if Wisconsin ever finds themselves in a late game clock-management situation again, they probably won’t spend 10 seconds complaining to the officials as the clock continues to run. Anyway, such a scenario is exceedingly unlikely to unfold again with the Boilermakers.
  • Utah State @ Southern California (ABC/ESPN2): I need to see one more bad loss by the Trojans before I can buy into the “USC is burning” narrative. Utah State is good, but they already lost to Utah. So yeah, if USC loses here, than sure, I’ll say they’re awful. But for now I think they win.
  • Arkansas @ Rutgers (ESPN): This is another difficult game to call. I’m tempted to give a slight edge to the Razorbacks because “ESS-EEE-CEE” and all but that narrative sure didn’t work for them last year. Perhaps worrying for the Scarlet Knights is that they were outgained by Eastern Michigan last weekend, though that was in the passing game so perhaps it doesn’t apply to Arkansas’s seemingly potent rushing attack.
  • West Virginia vs. Maryland (@Baltimore, MD; ESPNU): I don’t believe Maryland’s 3-0 record, so I’m going to roll with the Mountaineers here.
  • Kent State @ Pennsylvania State (BTN): I guess the guys at the LSU frat that made fun of the Kent State shooting weren’t big CSNY fans. Anyway, Penn State should probably get this one.

4:00: Louisiana-Monroe @ Baylor (FS1): Speaking of rematches of games from last year that involved a ton of points, well, seeing as how the Warhawks only put up 21 on Wake Forest last week, I’m not optimistic for a repeat performance.
7:00:

  • Arizona State @ Stanford (FOX): This will be one of the more entertaining games of the day. And before you say “well, that’s not saying much” realize that we’ll get a classic contrast of styles matchup here, between Stanford’s hard-nosed, old-school approach and the Sun Devils’ more West Coast friendly aerial game. That said, they faced similar attack in Wisconsin last weekend and only made it out because of what will probably be the year’s biggest end-of-game officiating debacle, so I’ll go with the Cardinal here.
  • Colorado State @ Alabama (ESPN2): Alabama.
  • Southern Methodist @ Texas Agricultural and Mechanical (ESPNU): SMU’s throwback unis should not be enough to come anywhere close to TAMU, but we did see last week with both Michigan and Notre Dame that even good teams can have a bit of a hangover effect. Then again, they both won, and TAMU is probably better than either of them. 
  • Texas State @ Texas Tech (FSN): This one should not stress the Red Raiders too much. 

7:30:

  • Oregon State @ San Diego State (CBSS): These two have something in common: losses to FCS teams! But Oregon State lost to a good Eastern Washington team, while SDSU got routed by Eastern Illinois. That does not bode well for the Aztecs, even in this rare home game with a power conference team.
  • Troy @ Mississippi State (SEC/FSN): I think that Miss State will probably have less trouble against this team from the state of Alabama, which would bring their record against such to 2-1 on the year.

7:45: Auburn @ Louisiana State (ESPN): Tigers win! Okay, with that out of the way, it’s still hard to see how Auburn will have the talent with this point to move the ball against LSU’s defense. Combined with LSU’s newfound ability to actually score points, and we have the makings of a potential SEC “darkhorse” candidate if there ever was such a thing.
8:00:

  • Kansas State @ Texas (ABC): Considering how big of a disaster Texas is shaping up to be this year, does it really matter who their quarterback is? I say no. Also for that reason I’m going with K-State here. 
  • Michigan @ Connecticut (ABC): This 8 o’clock timeslot pretty well encapsulates everything that’s wrong with this week’s slate of games. I have Michigan here. 
  • Missouri @ Indiana (BTN): Mizzou, probably.

10:15:

  • Utah @ Brigham Young (ESPN2): Utah gave up 170+ yards rushing to their other in-state rival, so it’s hard to see how they’re going to stop the Stormin’ Mormons in this edition of the Holy War.
  • Wyoming @ Air Force (ESPNU): Air Force’s defense has been pretty porous in their other two Mountain West games so far, and it’s hard to see that trend abating against Wyoming.

10:30:

  • New Mexico State @ California-Los Angeles (PAC12): If UCLA is as good as everyone says they are, they’ll win thus one easily. They’d win either way to most likely, but still. 
  • Idaho @ Washington State (PAC12): Wazzou is probably going to have a field day with these guys.