This Weekend in College Football: Week 2

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Florida @ Miami (ESPN): This has always been an under-played rivialry, with the two in-state foes having only met 55 times. (Though as EDSBS is fond of saying, football didn’t really exist in the state of Florida before 1980.) I personally have to give Florida the edge in this one, as they seem to exist in some sort of version of existence where offense is entirely optional.
  • Cincinnati @ Illinois (ESPN2): Cincy isn’t great or anything, but Illinois isn’t really even good, so that’s what this one is probably going to come down to.
  • South Florida @ Michigan State (ESPNU): Let’s just say that it is very difficult to pick in favor of a team that lost to McNeese State last weekend.
  • Oklahoma State @ Texas-San Antonio (FS1): Oklahoma State.
  • Eastern Michigan @ Pennsylvania State (BTN): Penn State.
  • Western Kentucky @ Tennessee (SEC): Tennessee.
  • Miami @ Kentucky (SEC/FSN): Kentucky?

12:30: Middle Tennessee State @ North Carolina (ACC): Well, MTSU won its last game against an ACC team, but nonetheless I like UNC’s chances here.

3:30:

  • Oregon @ Virginia (ABC/ESPN2): Oregon.
  • San Diego State @ Ohio State (ABC/ESPN2): Ohio State.
  • Buffalo @ Baylor (FSN): Baylor.
  • Toledo @ Missouri (ESPNU): Mizzou?
  • Utah State @ Air Force (CBSS): This might be the most interesting game of this bunch, which is kind of saying something. I would go with Utah State here after their close loss to big brother Utah last weekend, but I’m going to roll with the Air Force.

4:30: South Carolina @ Georgia (ESPN): And we’re finally out of the doldrums. This one is going to be pretty good I think, but unfortunately I have to give UGA a slight edge at home. I don’t want to, but there it is.

6:00: Syracuse @ Northwestern (BTN): Northwestern had a pretty good drubbing of Cal last weekend, good enough to make be feel good enough about their chances at home against the Orange.

7:00:

  • West Virginia @ Oklahoma (FOX): West, er, Frickin’ Virginia will get its first chance to show that may actually play defense this year in what will probably be difficult conditions. It’s hard to see them passing the test.
  • Texas @ Brigham Young (ESPN2): Texas can probably take care of business in Provo. Probably.
  • Alabama-Birmingham @ Louisiana State (ESPNU): LSU.
  • Colorado State @ Tulsa (CBSS): Hey so is Tulsa any good this year… (checks) … let’s see… lost to Bowling Green 34-7. Off. Going with the Rams.

7:30: Arkansas State @ Auburn (SEC/FSN): The fact I had to think about this for a second says way more about Auburn than Arkansas State. Still going with Auburn though.

8:00:

  • Notre Dame @ Michigan (ESPN): Game of the day, but is this really going to be that close? Emotion can only carry you so far. That said, we have precious little data at this point of the season, what with both teams having dispatched their designated patsies last week. So, yeah, basically I’m just guessing here, and my guess is going to be the Irish.
  • Hawaii @ Oregon (PAC12): Oregon.

10:30:

  • Washington State @ Southern California (FS1): Southern Cal?
  • Arizona @ Nevada-Las Vegas (CBSS): Arizona.
  • San Jose State @ Stanford (PAC12): Stanford.

Sorry for the abbreviated preview, but that’s what you get when this is written at 37,000 feet somewhere over eastern Nevada. We’ll be back in full next weekend.

    2014 World Cup Update: As of September 5

    Soon, a fresh new batch of qualifiers will kick off around the world. We preview where the remaining teams stand and the obstacles they face between themselves and Brazil.

     Other than the hosts, 4 teams have qualified, 87 are still in play, and 27 spots remain.

    AFC
    Asia’s automatic qualifiers are now in place: Iran, South Korea, Japan, and Australia. But to determine their playoff qualifier against a South American team, the third place teams from their fourth round, Jordan and Uzbekistan, will kick off tomorrow. The games will take place Friday and Tuesday, and the winner on aggregate advances to the aforementioned playoff. Considering that they lost on a goal differential tiebreaker to South Korea, Uzbekistan should be the favorites. (The Jordanians sported a -9 goal differential to Uzbekistan’s +5.)

    CAF
    As you might’ve seen in the post on what’s needed to advance, there’s plenty of action on the last day of the CAF 2nd Round. Groups C, G, and H are settled though: Cote d’Ivorie, Egypt, and Algeria are all through to the third round, which will kickoff in October. Those three teams will join all the other group winners, and they will all be paired off in home-and-home ties. The winner of each of those advances directly to the World Cup.

    CONCACAF
    There’s actually a fun scenario I didn’t list on the page for CONCACAF, but mostly because it requires a very specific set of circumstances: the US must defeat Costa Rica, Mexico and Honduras must draw, and Panama must lose or draw against Jamaica. It’s complex because you can’t do the “add future points to current points”, you have to take the remaining schedules into account. (For instances, if Costa Rica wins out after losing to the US, then it’s not possible for Mexico win out, etc.)

    Of course, that’s unlikely to happen. Jamaica has earned zero points in road games this round, and managed only a 1-1 draw at home with Panama. Mexico will be (well, they should be) desperate to hold serve at home against Honduras, though it’s not inconceivable Mexico will remain the same punchless team they’ve been most of this year and only manage a draw against what is likely to be a bunkered-in Honduras.

    CONMEBOL
    The top four teams currently are Argentina, Colombia, Ecuador, and Chile. Argentina has clinched at least a spot on the AFC-CONMEBOL playoff, but they don’t play Friday so as far as I know they cannot clinch yet. The top four lead the 5th place team, Uruguay, by 5 points, which is comfortable but not yet insurmountable. They also have a winnable game against Peru on Friday that should allow them to keep up with the top 4 for now. Tied with Uruguay though are the surprising Venezuelans, who are seeking their first ever trip to the World Cup.

    UEFA
    The European picture lacks a great amount of clarity, despite most teams having four or fewer matches remaining.

    The clearest is perhaps Group A, where Belgium or Croatia will make it past the first round, but since they are sitting on 19 and 16 points, respectively, it’s not clear who will come in first yet. Belgium seems to be the obvious candidate, undefeated so far in group play, but they still have to go on the road to Zagreb in October.

    Though no one has been eliminated yet in Group B, Italy a slight edge as Bulgaria and the Czech Republic fight for second. If Italy can hold serve against Bulgaria at home on Friday, then they can start to get a little bit of separation.

    Germany is close. They have 5 wins, 1 draw, and no losses in group play so far and have a 5 point lead over Austria. The real battle in Group C is the fight for second, as Austria, Sweden, and Ireland all sit on 11 points, so things could get pretty interesting come October.

    The Dutch are running away with Group D, holding a 7 point lead over Hungary. Hungary themselves are only a point ahead of Romania. The fight is probably for second in Group E as well. Switzerland has a 4 point lead, but 4 points is all that separates second from fifth.

    Group F is a tossup. Portugal (14), Russia (12), and Israel (11) are all within three points of the lead, a situation made all the more interesting when, back in August, Russia lost a snow make-up game to Northern Ireland. All three should win their matches Friday, meaning the real action starts on Tuesday when Russia plays Israel.

    It’s tempting to go with the chalk in Group G, where Bosnia has 16 points (and a +20 goal differential), Greece has 13 points, and Slovakia has 9. But I would say don’t count out the Slovaks, who made the Sweet 16 in South Africa.

    Group H proves looks can deceiving. Montenegro is topping the group with 14 points, but they’ve played one more game than England (12) and the Ukraine (11). Also on Friday, England and the Ukraine get winnable matches against minnows, while Poland at least stands a chance against Montenegro.

    Everyone thought Group I would be a two-horse race, especially since those horses are the reigning champions and France. And, well, that’s pretty much the way it’s played out, but right now the Spanish are only up by a point. The difference in the group could be Spain’s win over France back in March.

    That’s that! Don’t forget that ESPN will be streaming a boatload of qualifiers online, so be sure to catch them.

    2014 World Cup Update: Selected Scenarios for September 6

    These are the advancement scenarios for the African World Cup qualifiers to be held on September 6th. More teams in other confederations with likely be able to clinch advancement on Tuesday, so we’ll examine them after Friday’s action.

    CAF

    16 teams from 7 groups attempting to advance to the Third Round. Cote d’Ivoire (Group C), Egypt (Group G), and Algeria (Group H) have already clinched.

    Group A

    Current leaders Ethiopia will advance with:

    • A win over Central African Republic
    • A draw and a South Africa draw or loss to Botswana
    • A loss and a draw between South Africa and Botswana

    South Africa can advance with:

    • A win over Botswana and an Ethiopia loss to Central African Republic

    Botswana can advance with a win over South Africa and an Ethiopia loss to Central African Republic.

    Group B

    Tunisia and Cape Verde top the group with 11 and 9 points, respectively. Tunisia advances with a win or draw and Cape Verde advances with a win.

    Group D

    Ghana and Zambia top the group with 12 and 11 points, respectively. Ghana advances with a win or draw while Zambia must win.

    Group E

    Current leaders Congo advance with:

    • A win over Niger
    • A draw and a Burkina Faso loss to Gabon
    • A loss and a Burkina Faso draw as long as Congo loses by only 1 goal
    • A loss by 2 goals and a Burnkina Faso draw results in more complicated scenarios
    • A loss and a Gabon win over Burkina Faso by less than 4 goals, or 5 goals with more complicated scenarios

    Burnkina Faso can advance with a win over Gabon and a Congo loss or draw to Niger; or a draw and a Congo loss by more than 2 goals.

    Gabon can advance with a win and a Congo loss to Niger by more than 4 goals.

    Group F

    Nigeria leads Malawi 9 points to 7. If Nigeria beats or draws Malawi they advance, while Malawi needs a win.

    Group I

    Cameroon leads Libya 10 points to 9. If Cameroon beats or draws Libya they advance, while Libya must win.

    Group J

    Senegal leads Uganda 9 points to 8. If Senegal beats or draws Uganda, they advance, while Uganda must win.

    This Weekend in College Football: Week 1

    As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

    Thursday
    6:00: North Carolina @ South Carolina (ESPN): Aaaand we’re back! It’s the first game of the college football season, and it can’t get here soon enough. In the battle of the Carolinas, though, I expect the southern one to prevail.

    7:00:

    • Tulsa @ Bowling Green (ESPNU): Tulsa will probably win, but it has plenty of potential to be more exciting than…
    • Nevada-Las Vegas @ Minnesota (BTN): Minnesota should win.

    8:00: Utah State @ Utah (FS1): Both of these teams have made strives in recent years, but the level at which those strides are taking place vastly differs. Utes should roll.

    9:15: Mississippi @ Vanderbilt (ESPN): It’s Week 1 ESS-EEE-CEE football. Vandy has 3 straight wins in this series (and 6 of the last 8), and I’d probably expect them to get another.

    10:30: Rutgers @ Fresno State (ESPNU): I’m not required to have an opinion on this game, right? Huh. Well, apparently I am. Let’s go with Fresno just for the hell of it.

    11:00: Southern California @ Hawaii (CBSS): Okay, now this is really the last time that I can say the last time the Trojans played a game they lost to Georgia Tech in the Sun Bowl. I’m going to miss that. Also despite not apparently having a quarterback, they should win this one.

    Friday
    8:00:

    • Texas Tech @ Southern Methodist (ESPN): A potentially fun in-state showdown, but still a likely Texas Tech win.
    • Florida Atlantic @ Miami (ESPNU): I’ll be employing the “Miami context clue” gimmick this year. But in this case, does it really matter which one? Either would probably win.
    • Western Michigan @ Michigan State (BTN): Well, it’ll be a useful tuneup for Sparty, I guess. (Editor’s note: there are other games Friday, on major networks even, but our general policy is only to list games between two FBS teams, with limited exceptions.)

    Saturday
    Noon:

    • Buffalo @ Ohio State (ESPN2): And finally, the first proper football Saturday of the year. Just think Ohio State, you’d probably be a shoe-in title game pick if you’d scheduled a proper team here.
    • Villanova @ Boston College (ESPNEWS): Included entirely because ESPNEWS is apparently showing live football games now.
    • Purdue @ Cincinnati (ESPNU): Two things: Cincy still has a player named “Munchie Legaux”, and they’ll probably win.
    • Massachusetts @ Wisconsin (BTN): Remember, the BTN game in this timeslot is usually regional and it’s not always obvious which one will get shown nationally. That said, the other one involves a FCS team, so I get to actually say Wisconsin will probably win.
    • Toledo @ Florida (SEC): Maybe it’s just because I follow edsbs on Twitter, but Florida’s offense this year may have more in common with rocket explosions than the Toledo Rockets. But that said, it’s still Toledo, and the Gators will roll.

    12:30:

    • Louisiana Tech @ North Carolina State (ACC): For a second I thought the first team said “LSU” but then I saw that this was on the ACC syndication package, so yeah, probably not. That said, this one is debatable. Oh, right, Louisiana Tech hired Skip Holtz and will probably be less explosive on offense. Yeah, that bodes well for the Wolfpack.
    • Florida International @ Maryland (ACC): I had forgotten about this until this tweet, and it got me scratching my head all over again.

      It’s game week and I’m still half waiting to hear FIU say firing Mario Cristobal was some kind of longform performance art prank
      — Holly Anderson (@HollyAnderson) August 26, 2013

      I think karma dictates that Maryland wins.

    1:00: Rice @ Texas Agricultural and Mechanical (ESPN): Rice could well be very good this year. It won’t matter against TAMU.

    3:30:

    • Temple @ Notre Dame (NBC): [checks “is Temple still bad?” watch] Hrm, yep, yeah, I never said the first weekend of the season was going to be filled with thrills. You’re just supposed to be happy real football is back.
    • Syracuse vs. Pennsylvania State (@East Rutherford, NJ; ABC/ESPN2): Penn State mostly surprised everyone last year by not being as awful as everyone though. Same with the ‘Cuse. Of course, the primary difference is that one of these teams isn’t on a set of scholarship restrictions which generally hurt later more than they do now. That said, Penn State may well still be good enough to eke out a win here.
    • Mississippi State vs. Oklahoma State (@Houston, TX; ABC/ESPN2): Mississippi State had the rare distinction of being a “middle tier” SEC team last year. That said, it’s hard to see them keeping up with the Cowboys.
    • Brigham Young @ Virginia (ESPNU): Boy howdy Virginia probably isn’t very good this year. I’ll go with the Stormin’ Mormons in this one.
    • Central Michigan @ Michigan (BTN): Victors will, perhaps, be hailed after this one.

    4:00: Louisiana-Lafayette @ Arkansas (SEC): UL-Lafayette will probably be pretty good this year, well, for a Sun Belt team. Razorbacks roll.

    5:30: Virginia Tech vs. Alabama (@Atlanta, GA; ESPN): Well, short of the bus (does Alabama even take a bus to any game?) breaking down on I-20, things don’t look very good for the Hokies. Maybe Alabama will forget to pack some cleats? Maybe both the first and second teams accidentally take the wrong exit on the Connector? Maybe Saban decides to go off the rails and installs a read option offense in the middle of the second quarter while still using AJ McCarron at quarterback? I guess what I’m trying to say is good luck VPI, you’re probably going to need it.

    7:00:

    • Kentucky vs. Western Kentucky (@Nashville, TN; ESPNEWS): More ESPNEWS games! Will wonders ever cease? Yeah, probably, since Kentucky will still win this game in the most mediocre fashion possible.
    • Washington State @ Auburn (ESPNU): This game has the potential to be the best game of the day featuring two teams who won 6 games last year. That is, 6 games combined. Also, there is the potential for lots of points, but since Wazzou has had an extra year to get acquainted with the ideas of “playing offense” and “scoring points” I’ll have to favor them.
    • Miami @ Marshall (CBSS): I like Marshall slightly in this one, but I’m not sure why.

    8:00:

    • Georgia @ Clemson (ABC): This is the real game of the day. I hope to catch at least some of this, despite being otherwise totally preoccupied this weekend. What will carry the day? Georgia sports an inexperienced defense, but returns a bunch of excellent players on offense. So does Clemson, though, and remember that their last win was a thrilling victory over LSU in the Chick-fil-a Bowl. On a different forum, I went with Georgia, and I’m going to stick to my guns, but I can really see this going either way.
    • Wyoming @ Nebraska (BTN): It’s too bad that in football the road team traditionally wears lighter colors, because I find it hard to resist Wyoming’s ugly brown uniforms. Alas. Oh, and yeah, Nebraska wins.

    9:00: Louisiana State vs. Texas Christian (@Arlington, TX; ESPN): This is the second most interesting game of the day. TCU has done well so far in the Big 12, but can they go toe-to-toe against one of the SEC’s powerhouses? Of course, most any coach will have a schematic advantage against the Hat, but I suspect that once again the Bayou Bengal’s immense pool of talent will eke out the win.

    10:00:

    • Boise State @ Washington (FS1): As stated earlier, I’m really looking forward to seeing confused Idahoans in downtown Seattle on Saturday. That said, they should be happy Idahoans, as I think they’ll get the win.
    • Nevada @ California-Los Angeles (PAC12): Well, the only upside of not being a DirecTV customer anymore is that I do get the Pac-12 channels. So, yeah, if anything I’ve read about UCLA this offseason is true, they’ll probably win.

    10:30: Northwestern @ California (ESPN2): I guess we’ll find out pretty quickly if Cal made the right move firing Tedford. Still going with NU though.

    Sunday
    3:30: Ohio @ Louisville (ESPN): How good is Teddy Bridgewater? I would say we’ll find out, but mostly this game will just ensure he’s not, like, really awful.

    6:00: Colorado vs. Colorado State (@Denver, CO; CBSS): Here’s a rivalry game for your troubles. Unfortunately, there’s been a lot of trouble in Colorado football as of late, as both these teams were pretty not-good last year. But then again, both of them should be slightly better this year, which is bad news for the Buffs since they lost and all. And it’s quite tempting to pick them to lose again.

    Monday
    8:00: Florida State @ Pittsburgh (ESPN): Crazy fact: Pitt has a coach coming back for a sophomore season for the first time since 2006. Will that help them against Florida State? Well… probably not.

    Hopefully things will be more informative next week. Until then, enjoy the weekend!

    Conference Moves – Just the Facts

    I was looking through SB Nation’s excellent series of college football previews when I dawned on me that even I didn’t know about all the various conference moves that happened this past off-season. So let’s go through them.

    Same As Last Year

    • Big 12 (10 teams): Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Christian, Texas Tech
    • Big Ten (12 teams): Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio State, Pennsylvania State, Purdue, Wisconsin
    • MAC (13 teams): Akron, Ball State, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Kent State, Massachusetts, Miami, Northern Illinois, Ohio, Toledo, Western Michigan
    • Pac-12 (12 teams): Arizona, Arizona State, California, Colorado, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, California-Los Angeles, Southern California, Utah, Washington, Washington State
    • SEC (14 teams): Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana State, Mississippi State, Mississippi, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas Agricultural and Mechanical, Vanderbilt

    Dead Conferences
    The venerable Western Athletic Conference disbanded in football. The Big East also died for the most part, with most of the schools leaving for different conferences this year or next year. The American conference rose from its ashes, as we’ll see below.

    Automatic Qualifying Conferences
    Note that this designation only applies for this last year of the BCS. The American is grandfathered into the BCS via the Big East, and they will lose their seat at the table in the new play-off.

    The ACC has two new members, Pittsburgh and Syracuse, joining Boston College, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Miami, North Carolina State, North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Wake Forest for a total of 14 teams.

    The new, inoffensively named American Athletic Conference debuts this year. It consists of six former Big East members (Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, Rutgers, South Florida, and Temple) and four former Conference USA members (Central Florida, Houston, Memphis, and Southern Methodist).

    Four New Teams
    The number of teams playing top-level NCAA football rises from 120 to 124 teams this year, with Massachusetts, Texas-San Antonio, Texas State, and South Alabama losing the “transitional” tag. Transitional this year is Georgia State, and they will be full members in the Sun Belt next year. More are on their way in 2016 and 2017.

    Shakeups in the Minor Conferences
    The result of all this are massive shakeups in the minor conferences.

    As a result of the dissolution of the WAC, New Mexico State and Idaho found themselves without homes this season, though they will join the Sun Belt in the future. For now, they join fellow independents Army, Brigham Young, Navy, and Notre Dame.

    Now here’s the really confusing part.

    Conference USA welcomes in Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Middle Tennessee State, and North Texas from the Sun Belt. Louisiana Tech and Texas-San Antonio join from the WAC. They join Alabama-Birmingham, East Carolina, Marshall, Rice, Southern Mississippi, Texas-El Paso, Tulane, and Tulsa to give CUSA 14 teams. (For now.)

    The Mountain West picked up San Jose State and Utah State from the WAC, joining Air Force, Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Hawaii, Nevada, Nevada-Las Vegas, New Mexico, San Diego State, and Wyoming for a total of 12 teams.

    That leaves the Sun Belt. They gained South Alabama and Texas State. Together with Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, Troy, and Western Kentucky they have 8 football playing members.

    So, in summary, here’s what I should’ve done in the first place: a table.

    Conference Gained Lost
    Atlantic Coast Pittsburgh (Big East), Syracuse (Big East)
    American/Big East Central Florida (CUSA), Houston (CUSA), Memphis (CUSA), Southern Methodist (CUSA) Pittsburgh (ACC), Syracuse (ACC)
    Conference USA Florida Atlantic (Sun Belt), Florida International (Sun Belt), Middle Tennessee State (Sun Belt), Louisiana Tech (WAC), Texas-San Antonio (WAC) Central Florida (AAC), Houston (AAC), Memphis (AAC), Southern Methodist (AAC)
    Mountain West San Jose State (WAC), Utah State (WAC)
    Sun Belt South Alabama (FCS), Texas State (FCS) Florida Atlantic (CUSA), Florida International (CUSA), Middle Tennessee State (CUSA)