Category Archives: OOC schedules

Rating the 2010 Non-Conference Slate, Part 3: Big Ten

Okay, I am really busy right now, but I should be able to finish all of these before the season starts. Let’s do one right now, shall we?

  1. Michigan (1.5 legit, 1 DI-AA): Connecticut, @Notre Dame, Massachusetts, Bowling Green. This schedule is pretty “meh” because they play Notre Dame pretty much every year. What gets them over the top is the game with UConn. UMass continues the new Michigan trend of scheduling patsies. I think RichRod can figure to get at least two, if not three, wins out of this part of the schedule. But then again, it’s difficult to image that Michigan has actually been as bad as they have been the past couple of years.
  2. Ohio State (1, 0): Marshall, Miami (FL), Ohio, Eastern Michigan. As I said during the ACC preview, Ohio State-Miami is one of the most interesting inter-conference games on the schedule this year. The rest of this schedule is pretty bad, though. Marshall and Ohio had decent years last year, but Eastern Michigan was 0-12.
  3. Pennsylvania State (1, 1): Youngstown State, @Alabama, Kent State, Temple. Also interesting is Penn State’s game at Alabama. I actually had to double-check to make sure this was happening, and yes it is. The rest of this schedule is fluff – there should be a law that Pitt and Penn State have to play each other every year.
  4. Minnesota (1, 1): @Middle Tennessee State, South Dakota, Southern California, Northern Illinois. There’s something to be said for offsetting your return trip to MTSU by getting USC at home. The question for the Gophers is will they manage to win both of those? And if they only win one, will it be the one they should win?
  5. Purdue (1, 1): @Notre Dame, Western Illinois, Ball State, Toledo. This is pretty much a boilerplate Big Ten schedule: Notre Dame, DI-AA team, and a double serving of some MACtion. Yawn.
  6. Michigan State (1, 1): Western Michigan, Florida Atlantic, Notre Dame, Northern Colorado. Well, this one has some Sun Belt mixed in as well. For some reason the FAU game is in Detroit. I would guess that still counts as a home game for MSU.
  7. Iowa (0.75, 1): Eastern Illinois, Iowa State, @Arizona, Ball State. Yes, you may have two BCS conference teams on your schedule Iowa, but they’re not very good. Nonetheless, Iowa has managed to lose 5 of their last 10 games with Iowa State, which makes you scratch your head a bit.
  8. Illinois (0.5, 1): N-Missouri, Southern Illinois, Northern Illinois, @Fresno State. We continue to applaud the Illinois-Mizzou series, it’s just that neither team is very interesting or likely to be good this year. Illinois more so than Mizzou. If Zook hasn’t been fired already, the game at Fresno may be for his job.
  9. Wisconsin (0.5, 1): @Nevada-Las Vegas, San Jose State, Arizona State, Austin Peay. I wonder how many comp’ed casino drinks it takes to get a Wisconsinite drunk? (My guess: at least 20.) Nonetheless, the Arizona State game is somewhat interesting and hopefully Wisconsin continues to take their scheduling in that direction.
  10. Northwestern (0.25, 1): @Vanderbilt, Illinois State, @Rice, Central Michigan. Man, if NU played Duke this year they would’ve played the entirety of the “small DI-A private shcools” circuit. Other than that, there’s not much to say other than we’ll miss being able to make ourselves seem smarter than we actually are by making Kafka jokes.
  11. Indiana (0, 1): Towson, @Western Kentucky, Akron, Arkansas State. Indiana may not be the worst team in the Big Ten this year, but this schedule sure is. But hey, the objective I suspect is to go 4-0, beat two of Illinois, Northwestern, Minnesota, or Michigan and go to a bowl.

Anyway, I have to run, but hopefully next week I can go from one part of the heartland to another by taking on the Big XII. See you then!

    Rating the 2010 Non-Conference Slate, Part 2: Big East

    All right, it’s time for the Big East. Remember, these guys have 5 out-of-conference games so their legit scores will seem higher than most other conferences (which is why for my overall ratings I use averages). Anyway, let’s get this over with:

    1. Pittsburgh (2.75 legit, 1 DI-AA): @Utah, New Hampshire, Miami (FL), Florida International, @Notre Dame. Even accounting for the 5 OOC teams, this is still a pretty good OOC schedule. Going back to the ACC column for a second, we’ll recall that some conferences are looking for legitimacy and the Big East probably needs it more than anyone else. Pitt beating Utah, Miami, and Notre Dame would be a good start.
    2. South Florida (2, 1): Stony Brook, @Florida, Western Kentucky, Florida Atlantic, @Miami (FL). Well, at least all the major Florida teams will be no more than one step away from the others thanks to South Florida. Nonetheless, while the Bulls probably have a chance in the Big East, they probably don’t have a chance against the two biggest foes on their schedule.
    3. Cincinnati (1.25, 1): @Fresno State, Indiana State, @North Carolina State, Oklahoma, Miami (OH). I’m not sure whether the Oklahoma game is a neutral site game or not since it is still technically in Cincinnati, it just will be at the Bengals’s stadium instead of the Bearcats’. I guess it depends on how the split the ticket sales. Outside of that, there’s not much to work with here except for the somewhat unusual trip out to Fresno.
    4. Connecticut (1.25, 1): @Michigan, Texas Southern, @Temple, Buffalo, Vanderbilt. At Temple? Outside of that, this is okay, if not a little pedestrian. The Michigan game will probably be a barometer for both teams, which probably makes most in the maize and blue shake their heads a bit.
    5. West Virginia (1.25, 1): Coastal Carolina, @Marshall, Maryland, @Louisiana State, Nevada-Las Vegas. When I think West Virginia, I always think about how crazy and wide open they were under Rodriguez, so for a split second I was excited about their trip to Baton Rouge before I remembered that he’s not there anymore.
    6. Louisville (1, 1): Kentucky, Eastern Kentucky, @Oregon State, @Arkansas State, Memphis. Instead of playing all the teams in Kentucky that they could (no love for Western Kentucky, which is, you know, in DI-A?) they instead to go and play at….Arkansas State? I wonder if that will be on TV because I honestly don’t think I’ve ever seen a game broadcast from there.
    7. Syracuse (1, 2): @Akron, @Washington, Maine, Boston College, Colgate. So the ‘Cuse is probably past the point where they have to worry about losing to Akron, Maine, and Colgate (though I note that Akron game is at Akron). So that’s three wins right there. Though the Quest for Toronto is dead, is this the year the Orangemen make their first bowl game since 2004?
    8. Rutgers (0.5, 1): Norfolk State, @Florida International, North Carolina, Tulane, N-Army. I’m sorry, this schedule sucks. There’s no two ways about it. Sure, there’s the trip to Miami, and the neutral site game at the New Meadowlands that I really need to come up with a clever nickname for. Jiants Stadium? Hrm.

    Anyway, just us next time for a discussion of the extra-conference games of the Big Ten .

    Rating the 2010 Non-Conference Slate, Part 1: ACC

    The ACC actually has a lot of make-or-break out-of-conference games this year, a big deal for a conference hoping to live up to their new TV deal. As an ACC fan, let me tell you a lot of folks in this conference (especially from the “southern wing”) suffer from what I call “SEC-envy”. Unlike many of these folks, I don’t think the media is actively biased against the conference. That said, sometimes the conference doesn’t really help itself. But with the nation’s 2nd toughest OOC schedule as a group (with a “legit average” of 0.3177) the ACC will have its chances to show its mettle. Let’s get started.

    Oh, I should note that in some cases, schools were tied with the same rating, in which case the tie is broken first by the number of DI-AA teams on the schedule and then completely arbitarily.

    1. Florida State (2.5 legit, 1 DI-AA): Samford, @Oklahoma, Brigham Young, Florida. Hope of getting back to the ACC forefront abounds in Tallahassee this year, and this schedule can help with 3 pretty legit teams on the slate. Florida is of course a rivalry game, but Seminole fans have to be hoping Christian Ponder can show Sooner fans what they’re missing this year. If FSU can win two of the big three of these they will finish the season ranked, provided their defense doesn’t catch fire within the conference again.
    2. Miami (1.75, 1): Florida A&M, @Ohio State, @Pittsburgh, South Florida. Okay, this isn’t, your, um, older brother’s Miami team, but a rematch of a national title game is always fun. 
    3. Clemson (1.75, 1): North Texas, Presbyterian, @Auburn, South Carolina. Well, it’s not Clemson-Georgia but Tigers vs. Tigers is always fun. 
    4. North Carolina (1.5, 1): N-Louisiana State, @Rutgers, East Carolina, William & Mary. Well, the biggest thing here is the season kick-off neutral site against LSU. Most ACC partisans feel LSU is ripe for the pickin’ in this game, but then they turn around say that UNC themselves is extremely beatable. So we’ll see. I will say that if there’s year that LSU seems vulnerable, to me, this is it.
    5. Georgia Tech (1.5, 1): South Carolina State, @Kansas, Middle Tennessee State, @Georgia. Well, we get post-Mangino Kansas in Lawrence. Um, outside of that, there’s not really much to say about this slate, other than that the MTSU series is a 2-for-1 and I think the trip to Murfeesboro is next year.
    6. Boston College (1.25, 1): Weber State, Kent State, Notre Dame, @Syracuse. I have no idea what to say about this schedule. They’ll be favored to win all of these except ND, and even then they should have a pretty good chance. Oh, and it just gets worse from here.
    7. Duke (1, 1): Elon, Alabama, Army, @Navy. Let’s be clear here: two of three are on the schedule because this is Duke, which is also the reason they’re on Alabama’s joke of a schedule. 
    8. Maryland (1, 1): N-Navy, Morgan State, @West Virginia, Florida International. The Navy game is in Baltimore, which should be fun except that I think Navy is probably going to win. I wish Maryland could play Colorado in the “battle of coaches who probably should have been fired a year ago” bowl.
    9. Virginia (1, 2): Richmond, @Southern California, Virginia Military, Eastern Michigan. The only ACC team playing two DI-AA teams, they probably need it the most. At least their new coach probably shouldn’t lose to Richmond.
    10. Virginia Tech (0.75, 1): N-Boise State, James Madison, East Carolina, Central Michigan. I don’t know if the VPI-Boise State game is THE MOST IMPORTANT GAME IN ACC HISTORY, but it is a big deal for the conference. Once again, VPI can use their opening game as the kick off to a darkhorse national title run, while this is the most important game on Boise’s schedule. So that is one to watch. The rest of this schedule? Not so much.
    11. Wake Forest (0.75, 1): Presbyterian, @Stanford, Navy, @Vanderbilt. Let’s see… anything clever to say about this? Well, um, both Vandy and Wake have gold and black as their primary colors. Um. Yeah, I got nothin’. Oh, well, yes, Stanford is still only worth 0.5 points, one year does not grant you legitimacy. 
    12. North Carolina State (0.5, 1): Western Carolina, @Central Florida, Cincinnati, @East Carolina. Who is the AD at NCSU? How did you end up scheduling two mid-majors away in the same year? There are a lot of schedules worse than this one. But there are also a lot of better ones. But then again, NCSU has been pretty solidly “mediocre-to-bad” since 2003, so if the same AD has been there the entire time (I’m too lazy to look) they should have been fired a long time ago anyway.

    Join us next time, for the Big East!

    Rating the 2010 Non-Conference Slate: Prologue

    It’s that time once again, boys and girls. The rules from 2008 still apply, so let’s get right down to business.

    First, let’s do the list of “1”, that is, the teams we judge to be the most desirable to play. We fully acknowledge the inclusion of Georgia Tech in this group is very biased: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami (FL), Virginia Tech, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas, West Virginia, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Notre Dame, Oregon, Southern Cal, Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, LSU, and Tennessee. For those of you keeping score at home, that’s 5 “1”s for the ACC, 1 for the Big East, 3 for the Big 12, 3 for the Big Ten, 2 for the Pac-10, and 6 for the SEC. So the breakdown below by conference probably won’t be that surprising:

    1. SEC (0.75 average)
    2. Big Ten (0.659)
    3. ACC (0.604)
    4. Pac-10 (0.6)
    5. Big 12 (0.5625)
    6. Big East (0.5625)

    That’s a pretty sharp one-year decline for the Big 12, which went from tied for 2nd to tied for last. The main explanation for the Big 12 is probably the decline of the former glimmers of hope in the Big 12 North (Kansas and Missouri) and Colorado has been so bad for so long now that their desirability rating finally took a hit. The Pac-10 is ready to break out, I think, especially if Stanford and Washington (especially Washington) can continue rising up. Meanwhile, our bias for the ACC continues, as we may be the only people on the planet still excited to play Miami and FSU (or, for that matter, Clemson). But hey, we all have our vices.

    Coming soon, the conference-by-conference breakdowns, starting with, as usual, the Atlantic Coast Conference. See you then.

    Rating the 2009 Non-Conference Slate: Epilogue

    Before we can properly dive back in to college football, let’s examine our treatment of the best, and worst, of college football scheduling this year. Unlike the previous editions, this has a bit of subjectiveness to it, after all, no one really cares what kind of schedule Duke plays – the point here is to reward or shame programs that should, well, know better.

    First, the shaming.
    11. Rutgers (0.1 legit average, 2 DI-AA): Howard, FIU, @Maryland, @Army, Texas Southern. My arbitrary cut-off for consideration was a 0.1 “legit average”, which is simply the number of legit points divided by the number of OOC games a team plays. This completely uninspiring slate sees two DI-AA teams stop in and only one BCS opponent. But it gets worse. It gets much worse.
    10. Arizona (0.833, 1): Central Michigan, Northern Arizona, @Iowa. Iowa doesn’t rate very highly on the “legit” scale, which is perhaps unfair, but this is still a pretty bad schedule. It’s an improvement over last year’s effort, though. Perhaps it’s a sign of change for a gradually rising program?
    9. Louisiana State (0.0625, 0): @Washington, UL-Lafayette, Tulane, Louisiana Tech. Yeah, yeah, it sucks that Washington is terrible now, but completing the rest of the Louisiana Circuit (minus the other half of the UL-UM pick ’em) doesn’t make for an inspiration schedule. However, the get the nod over the following teams, because at least they aren’t playing any true DI-AA teams. The tie was broken in a completely arbitrary and subjective fashion.
    T-8. Northwestern (0.0625, 1): Towson, Eastern Michigan, @Syracuse, Miami (Ohio). I considered leaving NU off the list entirely, but hey, you win 9 games and want to be among the big boys of the Big Ten, then you need to schedule better.
    T-8. Virginia (0.0625, 1): William & Mary, Texas Christian, @Southern Mississippi, Indiana. As for this, well, I said earlier they might lose a game (or three) against this schedule. The continued employment of Al Groh confuses me. That said, UVA should be better and schedule better, so I guess that’s why they’re on the list.
    T-6. Kansas (0.0625, 1): Northern Colorado, @Texas-El Paso, Duke, Southern Mississippi. Though I expect their counterparts in Manhattan to catch up (or is it down?) next year with the return of Bill Synder, for now this sad excuse for a schedule will have to do for one of the Big 12 North’s main contenders.
    T-6. Wisconsin (0.0625, 1): Northern Illinois, Fresno State, Wofford, @Hawaii. Really? Of course, they needed overtime to beat Cal Poly last year, so…. and hey, it’s not as bad as Penn State’s.
    4. Pennsylvania State (0.0625, 1): Akron, Syracuse, Temple, Eastern Illinois. Seriously. I mean, they will go 4-0 but there is just absolutely no room for error in a schedule like this. Penn State really has to hope everyone else in the conference does their part to help out, including Ohio State beating USC and subsequently losing to them, because without that the Big Ten’s overall strength of schedule will be shot.
    3. Texas (0, 0): Louisiana-Monroe, @Wyoming, Texas-El Paso, Central Florida. This. I just. Wow. I will laugh if Texas pulls an Auburn (circa 2004) and winds up undefeated and 3rd in the BCS behind, say, USC and Florida because of this schedule. And how did they end up in Wyoming? Is that a 10-for-1?
    2. Texas Tech (0, 1): North Dakota, Rice, @Houston, New Mexico. Of course, this schedule is worse. I’d say TTU needs to put up 230 points combined on these four in order to keep up.
    1. Mississippi (0, 2): @Memphis, Southeast Louisiana, Alabama-Birmingham, Northern Arizona. Yeah, maybe Ole Miss scheduled bad in the recent past due to being terrible themselves, but still. There’s no reason to import a DI-AA team from Arizona to fill out your already terrible schedule .

    With that over with, let’s take a look at teams who decided to entertain all of us and perhaps helps themselves a little in the process. This is a little more stringent than the above, as I wanted to focus on teams that played more than 1 BCS school and interesting inter-regional matchups.
    6. Illinois (0.5, 1): N-Missouri, Illinois State, Fresno State, @Cincinnati. Just barely making the cut, the Illini’s neutral site game with Mizzou and games against the likes of Cincy and Fresno are definitely gambles in the OOC scheduling world. Kudos to them.
    5. UCLA (0.5, 0): San Diego State, @Tennessee, Kansas State. I’ve always liked Tennessee’s willingness to travel, though in this case the beneficiary is UCLA. Tacking on Kansas State was also a good move on UCLA’s part, though you can bet K-State won’t be scheduling games like that again anytime soon.
    4. Oregon (0.6667, 0): @Boise State, Purdue, Utah. Oregon is considered, generally, to be the second best team in the Pac-10. For them to go out and play at Boise is a pretty big deal. Honestly, the weakest team on this schedule might be Purdue, but we’ll see if Utah can re-live the magic from last year. About as challenging as a slate featuring Purdue as the only BCS representative can get, at any rate.
    3. Southern Cal (0.6667, 0): San Jose State, @Ohio State, @Notre Dame. Southern Cal-Ohio State is pretty much the game of the year already, though I’ve already elaborated on why OSU needs it more. If Notre Dame were better, that would be enough to vault this schedule to the top, but as-is it’s just not good enough.
    2. Virginia Tech (0.4375, 0): N-Alabama, Marshall, Nebraska, @East Carolina. A “neutral” site game with a major SEC and national power? Check. A home game with a historically good Big 12 team on the rise? Check. A road game at a non-BCS opponent that beat you last year? Check. Though our average doesn’t like them, this is a pretty darn good schedule. I honestly think VPI has a shot in all of these games, too. Honestly, this should challenge for #1.
    1. Georgia (0.625, 1): @Oklahoma State, Arizona State, Tennessee Tech, @Georgia Tech. It hurts for me to say this, but this is a darn good schedule. I don’t think anyone expects Oklahoma State to be as good as it was last year, but I applaud at least the decision to go out there. Arizona State makes its return trip and should still be decent, and I would like to think my own alma mater isn’t exactly chopped liver. I could go either way with this or VPI’s schedule, as this 3 good to very good teams, as opposed to VPI’s great team and very good team. Nonetheless, for me to conceded anything to UGA should tell you that this is darn good.

    Well folks, that’s a wrap. We’ll begin regular programming soon. I even already have the Week 1 TV Guide setup, that’s how much I’m looking forward to it! See you then.