Category Archives: On TV This Weekend

This Weekend in College Football: Week 15

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Thursday
7:30: Central Florida @ East Carolina (ESPN): This has wound up being a disappointing season for both these teams, but regardless I still think ECU is a pretty decent team. I like them here.

Friday
7:00: Bowling Green vs. Northern Illinois (Mid-American Conference Championship @ Detroit, MI; ESPN2): The MAC title game has had some wacky upsets in its short history, but that’s what they are: upsets. Northern Illinois is 10-2 and hasn’t lost a game since early October, dispatching many of their MAC rivals with ease. I like them to do the same to Bowling Green.

9:00: Oregon vs. Arizona (Pacific-12 Championship @ Santa Clara, CA; FOX): This game is full of intrigue. Arizona has an outside shot at the playoff, while Oregon is pretty safely ensconced with a win. Of course, there’s also the tidbit about Arizona’s win earlier in the season. I don’t really expect a repeat of that game. Since then, Oregon has gotten healthier on the offensive line, which was their main downfall to the Wildcats back in October. With a healthy line, it’s hard to see how Arizona will be able to keep up this time around.

Saturday
Noon:

  • Iowa State @ Texas Christian (ESPN): Baylor fans at this point have to be hoping against hope that the Cyclones can keep this close, maybe repeat what Kansas did to the Horned Frogs two weeks ago. I’m, well, not optimistic.
  • Louisiana Tech @ Marshall (Conference USA Championship; ESPN2): Louisiana Tech is easily the best team Marshall will have played at this point. I still like the Herd to win, but after last week’s loss to Western Kentucky it’s not hard to see the wheels coming completely off.
  • Houston @ Cincinnati (ESPN/ESPN2): Since getting blown out by Memphis back in early October, Cincy has cruised to six straight wins against AAC competition. I think they’ll make it seven, but the Cougars are certainly game to make it a little more difficult.
  • Southern Methodist @ Connecticut (CBSS): UConn is really, really bad, but fortunately for them, SMU is worse.

3:30: Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma (FS1): Far from being Florida State’s best win, Oklahoma State has had a very disappointing season that looks like it’s about to be a 5-7 campaign unless something weird happens. Then again, this is Bedlam.

    4:00: Alabama vs. Missouri (Southeastern Conference Championship @ Atlanta, GA; CBS): Thanks to an incredibly soft SEC schedule that saw them miss all SEC West teams except a reeling Texas A&M and Arkansas, Mizzou wound up winning the SEC East despite such sins as getting blown out 34-0 by Georgia and losing to Indiana. It is very, very hard to see how they will keep up with the Crimson Tide, much less beat them.

    7:30: Temple @ Tulane (ESPN2): Like many great plans, Temple’s season has failed to survive contact with the enemy. The Owls have lost 5 of their last 6, with the win being that still flukey win over ECU. But their losses have all been to the other respectable teams of the American. Tulane is below .500 and should provide the springboard Temple needs to get to 6-6.

    7:45:  Kansas State @ Baylor (ESPN): The most intriguing game of the day, in my mind. Baylor not only needs to win now but win big. I’m still a Bears advocate and I think that if Baylor beats K-State than their resume will be largely similar to TCU’s. But it’s worth remembering that this will be a quality win for a reason.

    8:00: Florida State vs. Georgia Tech (Atlantic Coast Conference Championship @ Charlotte, NC; ABC): Where to even begin? It’s been odd this week as my team has essentially become America’s favorite team to dispose with the annoying, not-very-good Seminoles. The problem is that the latter is largely a matter of perception, as they’re still pretty good. Are there logical arguments that they’re not one of the top four teams in the country despite being undefeated? Yes. However, if they’re not one of the top four, they’re certainly one of the top eight or so. If they’ve won twelve games this year solely on luck, then they are either supremely lucky still really good and just a tad lucky. The latter seems more likely.
    This will be the best defensive line we’ve seen since the Clemson game. (After watching what we did to Georgia in the second half last weekend, I’ve got to say I wasn’t very impressed by UGA’s line play. We owned them.) They have at least two linemen that can get in and disrupt the exchange, which may limit the dive. Florida State is still fast on defense and can fly to the ball if they know where it’s going. That said, there should still be opportunities (see: the Boston College game) and Tech will have limit turnovers to have any chance. Our defense will need to continue to get turnover-lucky and I suspect we’ll need a +2 or +3 turnover margin. Winston has been obliging this season in that department, but he’s still a pretty good quarterback and I don’t think we should be banking on him through four interceptions again.
    I doubt we can win this one going away, which means we have to bank on it being a very interesting night in Charlotte. The keys for Tech are the usual: limit the amount of time the opposing offense is on the field, score (touchdowns) every time we have the ball, and try to get a turnover or three.

    8:00: Ohio State vs. Wisconsin (Big Ten Championship @ Indianapolis, IN; FOX): The main headline going into this game is the Ohio State quarterback situation. Are we quick to forget, though, that J.T. Barrett originally was the unproven backup? Of course, the counter-argument would be that it was Barrett who got the job and not the starter for this Saturday, so even if it is Ohio State it stands to reason that the third string quarterback going into the season may not be their best option. I honestly have no idea who will win this one, but I still feel somewhat irrational in that I’m picking the Buckeyes.

    10:00: Fresno State @ Boise State (Mountain West Conference Championship; CBS): And here’s your nightcap. Unfortunately, it features a Fresno squad that is likely to be overmatched against a Boise team that’s had a pretty good run of form lately.

    This Weekend in College Football: Week 14

    As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

    Noon:

    • Michigan @ Ohio State (ABC): It’s hard to see Michigan really doing anything to win this game. Their offense is simply too bad, and Ohio State is firing on all cylinders right now.
    • South Carolina @ Clemson (ESPN): This pick is basically conditional on Deshaun Watson’s status. If he plays, and preferably, starts, then I think Clemson can snap their losing streak. Otherwise, the Gamecocks should prevail.
    • Kentucky @ Louisville (ESPN2): Louisville’s had a good run so far this season. Up in Lexington, the good times were rolling, including two SEC wins and a narrow overtime loss to Florida, up until they got dismantled 41-3 by LSU back in mid-October. They’ve lost five straight since then, and none of them where close. Louisville will probably make it six.
    • West Virginia @ Iowa State (FS1): Really the only surprising result for the Fightin’ Holgos in their current three game losing streak was the semi-bizarre loss to Texas. Other than that, they gave TCU and K-State way more than either wanted. They should get off the schnide against Iowa State.
    • Illinois @ Northwestern (ESPNU): In a battle for bowl eligibility, there can only be one winner. And that winner will probably not be Illinois.
    • Cincinnati @ Temple (ESPNEWS): Temple’s surprised me before, but it’s hard to see how they stack up against Cincy.
    • North Texas @ Texas-San Antonio (FSN): Absolutely no clue. I was going to go North Texas but F+ says UTSA has a 76% chance of winning, so…
    • Rice @ Louisiana Tech (CBSS): This is the vastly more interesting C-USA West fight than the one above, as the winner gets the right to face Marshall. That winner seems much more likely to be LaTech.
    • Georgia Tech @ Georgia (SEC): To Hell With Georgia.
    • Purdue @ Indiana (BTN): With two in-state teams with identical 3-8 records and 5+ game losing streaks, this is basically a tossup to me. Purdue, I guess?

    12:30:

    • North Carolina State @ North Carolina (ACC): UNC’s offense figures to just be too much for NC State.
    • Syracuse @ Boston College (ACC/RSN): I think BC is a pretty solid team, and they figure to handle the ‘Cuse pretty easily.

    1:00: Utah @ Colorado (Pac12): The Pac-12’s newest members face off, but as I’ve mentioned before, their trajectories since joining the conference are vastly different. This Colorado team, despite being 0-8, isn’t as awful as it’s been, but they’re still pretty bad. The Utes should win easily.

    3:30:

    • Notre Dame @ Southern California (FOX): Notre Dame has been exposed a bit in their current three-game losing streak. While Southern Cal isn’t great or anything, they do have the talent to compete and I don’t think Notre Dame is good enough at this point to punish them for their lack of depth. I have the Trojans as a slight favorite.
    • Mississippi State @ Mississippi (CBS): Speaking of collapses, what happened to Ole Miss last weekend? Well, for starters, they managed to turn the ball over six times, which is a pretty good way to ensure that you’ll lose 30-0. Miss State still only has the one blemish on their record, while the Rebels are playing only for pride now with three losses. This Egg Bowl doesn’t look as appetizing as did two weeks ago, that’s for sure. At any rate, I have the Bulldogs in this one.
    • Michigan State @ Pennsylvania State (ABC/ESPN2): One team not suffering a post-big-loss hangover is Michigan State. Since losing to Ohio State, they’ve pounded Maryland and Rutgers into a fine dust. They figure to do the same against Penn State.
    • Baylor vs. Texas Tech (@Arlington, TX; ABC/ESPN2): I’d say it’s getting weird at Texas Tech vis-a-vis the situation with their former defensive coordinator, but weird stuff happens there a lot, so let’s say it’s getting downright ugly. Baylor should win easily.
    • Florida @ Florida State (ESPN): It’s tempting to say that Florida will get up for this rivalry game the same way they did against Georgia, but let’s face it: that one game is the only time all year Florida has displayed any sort of offensive competence. (Well, and against Eastern Kentucky last week, but that doesn’t count.) Florida’s defense is good enough to keep it close, but FSU will probably keep doing what they’ve been doing.
    • Rutgers @ Maryland (ESPNU): Maryland, probably.
    • San Jose State @ San Diego State (CBSS): I don’t have any good reason to pick San Jose State here, so I won’t. I do bet that Boise wishes any of the teams on this side of the MWC table were better going into next week’s title game, though.
    • Minnesota @ Wisconsin (BTN): It’s hard to see how Minnesota is going to be able to stand up to Wisconsin’s brutal rushing attack.

    4:00:

    • Kansas @ Kansas State (FS1): It’s hard to see how Kansas will put up a fight against K-State at all.
    • Connecticut @ Memphis (ESPNEWS): Given that they’re favored to lose to Memphis, that Fiesta Bowl must seem like a distant memory to Husky fans.
    • Tennessee @ Vanderbilt (SEC): I continue to lack an explanation for how awful Vandy is this year, so I’ll just stick to picking against them.

    4:30: Brigham Young @ California (Pac12): I’ve been calling for Cal to win this one in the bowl predictions, mostly because that makes things slightly easier. In reality, this one projects to be pretty close. I’ll stick my guns and lean toward Cal.

    7:00:

    • Pittsburgh @ Miami (ESPN2): Dear Miami: what the hell happened against Virginia last weekend? Obviously you’re still favorites and still my pick in this one, but seriously.
    • Wake Forest @ Duke (ESPNU): At least what happened to Duke last week is somewhat explainable, and trust me, I’m quite happy it happened. Duke’s been sliding a bit, but a game against Wake Forest is a decent way to right the ship, as it were.

    7:45: Auburn @ Alabama (ESPN): Barring another crazy special teams play, as hilarious as it was, it’s difficult to see Auburn getting a win here. Auburn’s defense just isn’t good enough to provide the resistance to Alabama’s offense that they need to have a chance.

    8:00: Oregon @ Oregon State (ABC): Weird things can always happen in this Civil War, but believe me that doesn’t really project to be the case this year.

    10:15: Utah State @ Boise State (ESPN2): Boise has improved as the season’s gone on. Utah State has been putting on a pretty brave show for most the season in light of what happened to their all-everything quaterback, but the dream figures to end on the blue turf.

    10:30:

    • Washington @ Washington State (FS1): It’s been a rough second year for Mike Leach out in Spokane, and UDub doesn’t figure to make it any less so.
    • Nevada @ Nevada-Las Vegas (ESPNU): It’s not often you can say a 6-5 team is obviously better than another, but when your opponent is 2-10, this is one of those times. Nevada.

    This Weekend in College Football: Week 13

    As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

    Quick note, though: there several teams playing FCS opponents this week. I will list those games, but they will have no or very short summaries.

    Noon:

    • Minnesota @ Nebraska (ESPN): I don’t think the Gophers have anyone prone to rushing for 400 yards, so the Cornhuskers should be safe in this one.
    • Pennsylvania State @ Illinois (ESPN2): I suspect this will be Tim “Eight Wins” Beckman’s penultimate game as head coach of the Illini.
    • Kansas @ Oklahoma (FS1): Good on you for winning last week, Kansas. This one is likely to be a bloodbath.
    • Northwestern @ Purdue (EPSNU): I’m not going to lie, this weekend’s slate of games is pretty brutal. I have Northwestern in this one, but not by a lot.
    • Southern Methodist @ Central Florida (ESPNEWS): I actually watched the end of SMU’s game against Tulsa last weekend, because it was on TV and SMU had a wire-to-wire lead going into the last minute of the fourth quarter. They then proceeded to lose. I suspect they will lose again.
    • Texas-San Antonio @ Western Kentucky (FSN): Western Kentucky all the way in this one.
    • Fordham @ Army (CBSS)
    • Eastern Kentucky @ Florida (SEC)
    • Charleston Southern @ Georgia (SEC)
    • Rutgers @ Michigan State (BTN): Sparty took down the Terps 37-15 last weekend, now the other Big Ten newbie is probably about to get tthe same treatment.
    • Indiana @ Ohio State (BTN): Does Indiana have another surprise in it? Probably not.
    • South Alabama @ South Carolina (SEC/FSN): South Carolina.

    12:30:

    • Virginia Tech @ Wake Forest (ACC): First, hats off to Virginia Tech and North Carolina. While both were picked to finish ahead of us in the ACC, they did their parts by chipping in and giving Duke their second and third conference losses, and allowing us to advance to Charlotte. Thanks! Anyway, Wake is still awful, but the Hokies are so offensively inept that they’ll probably make it closer than it should be.
    • Yale @ Harvard (NBCSN)

    1:00: Washington State @ Arizona State (Pac12): While I’d love a crazy upset here, I’m not banking on it.

    3:30:

    • Louisville @ Notre Dame (NBC): They don’t really have manuals for how to recover from losing to Northwestern in overtime. Louisville will probably not provide any sort of closure, but I think the Domers will escape with a win and then get wrecked by USC next weekend.
    • Mississippi @ Arkansas (CBS): Well, Arkansas finally pulled off their upset last week. I’d think it’s likely that things will be back to normal in this one.
    • Boston College @ Florida State (ABC/ESPN2): FSU is a nineteen point favorite, so you definitely want to take BC to cover here. Otherwise, I imagine FSU will do its usual thing, i.e., trail for a substantial portion of the game and then wake up and win.
    • Wisconsin @ Iowa (ABC/ESPN2): I have a feeling it may be Iowa’s turn to have their rush defense statistics get obliterated.
    • Arizona @ Utah (ESPN): The numbers are slightly in favor of Utah, and while I like the Utes plenty, I just like the Wildcats a little better.
    • Syracuse @ Pittsburgh (ESPNU): Pitt’s running back has been in awesome in their past three games. Problem? They’ve lost all of them. That said, Syracuse is the easiest game in this stretch and should give the Panthers a ray of hope for bowl eligibility going into Miami next weekend.
    • Texas Tech @ Iowa State (FSN): I’d say the wheels are coming off for Texas Tech, but at least they didn’t lose to Kansas. I’ll stick with the Raiders.
    • Georgia State @ Clemson (ACC/RSN): Clemson’s offense is terrible without Deshaun Watson, but they won’t need him here.
    • Maryland @ Michigan (BTN): Maryland is thoroughly mediocre enough that Michigan can probably get a win here, but I’m not confident about it.

    4:00:

    • Stanford @ California (FS1): This one might be worth watching just because it’s a match up of total opposites. On one hand, a team that can’t stop anyone to save their lives. On the other, a team that can’t score. Which will prevail? Can Cal gut out a close win, or are they capable of shredding the Cardinal like Oregon did and making it a moot point? I’m going with the Bears in a slight upset.
    • South Florida @ Memphis (ESPNEWS): I’m having trouble adjusting to this universe where Memphis is a 19-point favorite over anyone, but here we are. Already at 7-3, I think they’ll get to 9.
    • Western Carolina @ Alabama (SEC)

    4:30: Colorado @ Oregon (Pac12): Very quietly since the loss to Arizona, Oregon has looked like, well, Oregon again. This trend should continue against the Buffs’ awful defense.

    7:00:

    • Miami @ Virginia (ESPN2): As long as they’re not too deflated by allowing FSU to come back last weekend, this should be an easy win for the ‘Canes.
    • Samford @ Auburn (ESPNU)

    7:30:

    • Oklahoma State @ Baylor (FOX): This one probably looked better at the beginning of the year than it does now. The Bears should win in a romp.
    • Missouri @ Tennessee (ESPN): I think it says a lot about the year South Carolina is having that both these teams beat them. It’s not really a safe pick, per se, but I’m still taking Mizzou.
    • Vanderbilt @ Mississippi State (SEC): Still trying to figure out what happened to Vandy, because the same thing seems to be happening at Stanford (though at least they still play pretty good defense). Clanga in a romp.

    8:00:

    • Southern California @ California-Los Angeles (ABC): Like all three of USC’s loses, I suspect in this one their lack of depth will come home too roost and UCLA will be able to eke out a win the end.
    • Cincinnati @ Connecticut (CBSS): They’re very thankful that basketball season has started over in Storrs.

    10:15: Boise State @ Wyoming (ESPN2): A win here will ensure that Boise continues to confuse what Group of Five team will get into the big-money bowls, so I’m sure that’s what’ll happen. But also tune-in because hopefully Wyoming will be wearing some horrendous combination of brown and mustard yellow.

    10:30:

    • Fresno State @ Nevada (ESPNU): Nevada just looks like a better all-around team than Fresno does. This will probably end the Bulldogs’ shot at a bowl.
    • Oregon State @ Washington (Pac12): UDub is still searching for that elusive seventh win (which they need for bowl eligibility since they’re playing a 13-game schedule). The odds look good they’ll find it here.

    This Weekend in College Football: Week 12

    As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

    Noon:

    • Ohio State @ Minnesota (ABC): With last week’s solid win over Michigan State, Ohio State is now solidly a contender. The loss to Virginia Tech will continue to dog them, though. However, they should have no such issues with the Gophers.
    • Clemson @ Georgia Tech (ESPN): The first time we play Clemson at home since 2011 and it’s… at noon? I mainly don’t like it because that means it starts at 9:00am out here on the west coast, but still, I never much cared for noon starts as a student either. If this were a night game, I bet it’d be sold out.
      At any rate, let’s analyze the game itself. By most measures, this appears to be a tossup. Vegas has the visitors by three and the advanced stats have us by by around a touchdown. The average score in this series over 77 games has a margin of about 6 points. Of course, last year Clemson won by 24 (and it wasn’t really that close), and the year before by 15, which arguably has much more of a bearing on this year’s result. For starters, last year’s Clemson defense that forced 6 punts is largely back, especially in the all-important defensive line. Even though I don’t think it makes a difference, but Clemson this year didn’t get a lot of extra time to prepare for the offense (just an extra day, basically). The main key for us that we’re much more efficient offensively this year. Last year, we only rushed for 248 yards, due partially to the talented defensive line of the Tigers but also simply because we were in a 20-0 hole in the 2nd quarter and started throwing the ball. That said, if we rush for less than 300 yards again, we’ll probably lose again.
      And then there’s the defensive side. If you didn’t know better, you’d think the defense has improved over the course of the season, but they really haven’t. Our defense at this point has pretty much started relying entirely on generating turnovers. Interceptions are a matter of skill, but fumbles are a matter of luck. This defense still has trouble generating pressure, and still has trouble covering anyone. As usual, our hopes are pinned on the offense, which will be praying for the defense to generate just one stop, in all likelihood. (One or two defensive stops was basically the balance in the Carolina game, as you might recall.) The defense’s job will be that much tougher with Clemson’s dynamic freshman QB (Deshaun Watson) back in the mix after an injury.
      Really the only thing I’ve seen over the past six years that really stops this offense other than itself is elite defensive line talent. Our offensive line does not employ the beefiest men, valuing some measure of agility over the portly run blockers of a traditional offense. They can block most of the guys they face, and since we do run the option, that means they can leave a guy unblocked and either scamper up to the second level to block a linebacker or defensive back, or they can throw a double-team on a particularly troublesome guy. Problem is when you have elite talent, event the usual refrain of “just option the guy” (i.e., just don’t block him and use him as the option key) has problems because these guys can be fast enough to either chase the play from behind or blow up both options at the point of attack.
      This is a fun game (well, in retrospect usually) and a fun rivalry, usually, although it seems like we always win close in this series and lose big. Let’s hope it approximates something closer to the former tomorrow.
    • Temple @ Pennsylvania State (ESPN2): I think Penn State’s got this one.
    • Virginia Tech @ Duke (ESPNU): We need Duke to lose this one very badly, but I just don’t see how it will happen.
    • Army @ Western Kentucky (CBSS): It’s not a good year for Army when they’re not the favorite against the Western Kentuckys of the world.
    • Iowa @ Illinois (BTN): Iowa, probably?
    • South Carolina @ Florida (SEC): Florida has put together by far the best two games of their season the past two weeks. The first, the rout over Georgia, was a genuine surprise; the win over Vanderbilt, less so. That said, this has been something of a lost season for the Gamecocks, with people even starting to whisper about Spurrier’s job security. I really have my doubts about that, but what I thought was a sure South Carolina win a few weeks is now completely up in the air after last week’s overtime loss to Tennessee. I don’t think this one will be very high scoring, but I will give a very, tiny slight edge to the Gators.

    12:30: Pittsburgh @ North Carolina (ACC): Pitt is back after a bye week but still sitting on two straight losses to us and Duke. Pitt is probably the better overall team, but if that Carolina offense gets rolling Pitt may not be able to stop them. I’ll take Pitt though.

    2:30: Rice @ Marshall (FSN): Marshall should still remain undefeated, though this will instantly be their best win of the season. With East Carolina’s loss to Cincy, the race for that non-Power 5 spot is now wide open.

    3:00:

    • Texas Christian @ Kansas (FS1): I fear for Kansas in this one. TCU are 29 point favorites. I would probably still pick them.
    • Wake Forest @ North Carolina State (ACC/RSN): NC State may have less trouble with Wake than Clemson did last week, if I had to guess.

    3:30:

    • Washington @ Arizona (FOX): Thanks to an extra home game due to the Hawaii Rule, UDub is not bowl eligible yet at 6-4. They probably won’t get it here.
    • Northwestern @ Notre Dame (NBC): Notre Dame finally did the courtesy of picking up their second loss, and even to Arizona State like I had predicted. That was nice of them. They will probably be pretty ready to vent some frustration on Northwestern, though.
    • Mississippi State @ Alabama (CBS): Well, the rubber meets the road here. I’ve been calling for Alabama to be #1 in the Playoff, and it hinges a lot on getting this victory. Miss State’s defense is good, but Alabama should find a little more breathing room for their attack than they had last week at LSU. I think this game will actually be relatively wide open, but in the end the Tide defense will make more stops and gut out the win.
    • Nebraska @ Wisconsin (ABC): Nebraska is the 1-loss team no one is talking about, unless they’re talking about teams that no one is talking about. Others have also presciently pointed out over the past few weeks that Nebraska may regret the conference move a bit in hindsight, after all, TCU and Baylor are generating way more national buzz than Nebraska or anyone else in the Big Ten for that matter. What would really help the Huskers though is to get a win here. They’re slight underdogs but I’ve had them winning here in the bowl predictions for a while now.
    • Oklahoma @ Texas Tech (ESPN): Texas Tech sports one of the worst defenses in the country. This… may get ugly.
    • Memphis @ Tulane (ESPNU): Memphis is poised to be one of the American’s co-champions, and I suspect Tulane will be able to do little to stop them.
    • Georgia Southern @ Navy (CBSS): Folks, I think Georgia Southern is pretty legit. They’re going to win the Sun Belt this year, except that they’re technically still in transition and thus not even bowl eligible unless there aren’t enough teams. They will almost certainly give Navy a run for their money but I’m not sure I can quite pull the trigger on saying they’ll win.
    • Indiana @ Rutgers (BTN): These are two extremely mediocre teams. I’m go with Rutgers by a nose.

    4:00:

    • New Mexico @ Utah State (ESPNEWS): When he was a broadcaster, Bob Davie said he would run an option offense, and by golly if he isn’t running an option scheme out of the pistol formation, Chris Ault-style. Utah State is probably going to beat them, though.
    • Kentucky @ Tennessee (SEC): This seems like a good occasion to give a quick shoutout to my Mom, who waited in line in unseasonably bitterly cold temperatures for a chance to get some extremely rare products of Kentucky on my brother and I’s behalf. Even worse, it didn’t work out. Sorry. At any rate, I actually have Kentucky in this one, but these teams are pretty even I think.

    6:00: Utah @ Stanford (Pac12): I think Stanford’s lack of offense will let them down again in this one.

    7:00: Nevada-Las Vegas @ Brigham Young (ESPNU): Not a lot of hope for UNLV in this one.

    7:15: Auburn @ Georgia (ESPN): The Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry is back. Who will win? I have no idea, really. Both these teams can move the ball, that’s not really the issue. Georgia’s defense was solid all year until the nigh-inexplicable collapse against Florida, while Auburn hasn’t really slowed anyone down since September. Of course, it’s worth pointing out that Georgia has yet to face any of the elite offenses in the SEC, and they did give up 70 points in two weeks against teams that ran the ball down their throats (Arkansas and Florida). Auburn’s attack is the strongest and most well-rounded they’ve faced all year, so I’m giving a slight edge to the Tigers.

    7:30:

    • Texas @ Oklahoma State (FOX): Speaking of things I didn’t imagine a few weeks ago, I’ve actually got Texas here.
    • Missouri @ Texas Agricultural and Mechanical (SEC): Mizzou’s best win of the year is still the not-as-good-as-it-looked at the time win over South Carolina. TAMU beat Auburn last week, but it wasn’t a sure thing. The key for these Tigers, as it was for the Tigers before them, will be trying to exploit TAMU’s woeful defense, but it’s not clear to me that they can. I’ve actually got A&M in this one.

    8:00:

    • Florida State @ Miami (ABC): All Miami has done since losing to us is, well, look like Miami, really. They’ve dominated their opposition since, and in 9 games Duke Johnson has over 1200 yards rushing. (I still think he was sorely underutilized against us.) I’ve said it before, but I’ll say it again: this is not last year’s Florida State team. I still think they’re going to win, though.
    • Louisiana State @ Arkansas (ESPN2): I still say Arkansas is going to beat someone they shouldn’t this year, but I lack the guts to actually make that call.
    • South Florida @ Southern Methodist (CBSS): SMU is bad enough to even lose to the USFs of the world.
    • Michigan State @ Maryland (BTN): Sparty will be out for blood against the halfway-decent Terps, and I suspect they’ll get it.

    10:00: North Texas @ Texas-El Paso (FS1): A national audience? Sure, why not, it’ll give you some live football during the half-time of FSU-Miami. Also, I have UTEP.

    10:15: San Diego State @ Boise State (ESPNU): Boise gets a chance to continue to make their case for the Other 5 spot.

    10:45: Arizona State @ Oregon State (ESPN): The Beavers aren’t really very good this year. I would definitely think Arizona State covers the nine points here.

    This Weekend in College Football: Week 11

    As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

    Noon:

    • Georgia @ Kentucky (ESPN): I still have no idea what happened to Georgia last week, but suffice it to say, I don’t envy Kentucky right now.
    • Iowa @ Minnesota (ESPN2): Minnesota! You were having such a nice little season, and then you had to go lose to Illinois. Oof. Iowa, meanwhile, managed to score 48 (48!) points against Northwestern last weekend, surely making several Iowa fans dizzy in the process. I’m giving a slight edge to Iowa.
    • Wisconsin @ Purdue (ESPNU): This one might get ugly for the Boilermakers.
    • Baylor @ Oklahoma (FS1): I’m not entirely what’s going to happen in this one. Looking at the stats, these teams are pretty even, but Oklahoma has one more loss. I consider this a tossup, basically. I’m going with a minor upset for the Sooners.
    • Texas-San Antonio @ Rice (FSN): It’s hard to see how UTSA has much of a chance here, but the advanced stats say this is about even. I guess we’ll have to just wait to find out.
    • Southern Methodist @ Tulsa (CBSS): This is probably SMU’s best remaining chance to win a game this year, but I’m not seeing it.
    • Pennsylvania State @ Indiana (BTN): Penn State has now lost four straight, but I still have them as slight favorites over the Hooisers.

    12:30:

    • Georgia Tech @ North Carolina State (ACC): NC State managed to reverse their four game slide finally with a touchdown win over Syracuse. Meanwhile, GT is coming off their most complete effort since the Miami game, dominating an inferior Virginia team from start to finish.
      The main worry for us is going to be NC State’s dynamic Jocaby Brissett, who could certainly do plenty to exploit our defense. The defense played better against Virginia last week, but they were arguably one of the worst offensive teams we’ve played all season. Watching the game, the UVA offense did very little to help itself.
      On paper, the NC State defense looks overmatched, sporting one of the worst run defenses in the country. The key for the Jackets will be to take advantage of this and, as usual, give the defense plenty of room.
    • Duke @ Syracuse (ACC/RSN): It’s hard to see how Syracuse will keep up with Duke.

    3:30:

    • Notre Dame @ Arizona State (ABC): I’ve had Notre Dame losing this game in my bowl predictions for several weeks, so I’m not going to back down now.
    • Texas Agricultural and Mechanical @ Auburn (CBS): It’s hard to see how TAMU is going to win this one.
    • Michigan @ Northwestern (ESPN2): I wouldn’t expect a lot of points in this one. Michigan also needs this one pretty badly to get to a bowl, so I’m sort of thinking that means they probably won’t get it.
    • West Virginia @ Texas (FS1): It’s hard to see how Texas is going to score enough points to keep up with the Mountaineers.
    • Tulane @ Houston (ESPNU): Tulane just isn’t very good.
    • Iowa State @ Kansas (FSN): I wouldn’t recommend watching this one. Iowa State is slightly less awful, though.
    • Connecticut vs. Army (@New York, NY; CBSS): UConn had an out-of-nowhere upset of Central Florida last weekend. If they lose to Army, it won’t be out-of-nowhere, per se, but it would still be pretty surprising.

    4:00: Washington State @ Oregon State (Pac12): I wouldn’t have had Wazzou has a favorite before one of their all-time best quarterbacks broke his leg last week, so…

    6:30: Virginia @ Florida State (ESPN): Florida State will have to work pretty hard to inject any drama into this one.

    7:00:

    • California-Los Angeles @ Washington (FS1): UCLA upset Arizona last weekend, but nonetheless they remain a solidly “good” team. I think UDub could give them some problems but I still have the Bruins in the end.
    • Hawaii @ Colorado State (ESPNU): Of the many teams hoping for a shot at the Group of Five slot for the big money bowls, Colorado State was definitely helped by East Carolina’s loss last weekend. Problem is, their loss to was to another team vying for that slot: Boise State. Either way, no big problems are anticipated for them against Hawaii.
    • Boise State @ New Mexico (CBSS): I’ll give Bob Davie credit for sticking his what he said when he was a commentator and indeed running a spread option offense at New Mexico. Other than that, I got nothing for this, Boise should win easily.

    7:15: Louisville @ Boston College (ESPN2): Boston College may be the most surprising 6-3 team in college football, but I think they’ll probably drop to a slightly less surprising 6-4 after this.

    7:30:

    • Kansas State @ Texas Christian (FOX): This is one is a tossup to me. I think these are both pretty good teams with good offenses. Kansas State has a better defense, but TCU’s offense is that much better than K-State’s. I’m basically guessing TCU.
    • Florida @ Vanderbilt (SEC): I figured Florida would win this one regardless, but boy howdy was that game against Georgia satisfying to watch.

    8:00

    • Ohio State @ Michigan State (ABC): This one projects to be close, but honestly, I like Sparty a lot here. Michigan State has just been more well-tested than the Buckeyes. Keep an eye on it, though.
    • Alabama @ Louisiana State (CBS): Game of the day, most likely. Did you know that Les Miles is the only current SEC coach to have beaten Nick Saban twice? Of course, that fact is somewhat tempered by the fact that a lot of SEC coaches haven’t been around long enough to try to beat Saban twice, but still, at night, in Baton Rogue, it’s all about the Les Miles Reality Distortion Field. What could happen? I have no idea. But I’m going with Alabama anyway.
    • Colorado @ Arizona (Pac12): The Buffs have zero conference wins so far, and with their remaining schedule being Arizona, Oregon, and Utah that doesn’t figure to change.

    10:00: Oregon @ Utah (ESPN): Since their loss to Arizona over a month ago, Oregon has done a lot more to look like a top team than they did up to that point, culminating last week’s demolition of Stanford. Utah has certainly been game this season in the Pac-12, but it’s hard to see them keeping up with the Ducks.

    10:30: San Jose State @ Fresno State (CBSS): Why should you stay up to watch two sub-.500 Moutain West teams play? I have no idea, but hey, this one should be close. Giving a slight edge to the Spartans.