A quick note on the week one guide: contrary to my usual policy, I do list FCS vs. FBS matchups because there’s so darn many of them, but as you’ll see below I dispense with them quickly.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Saturday
Noon:

• Stanford @ Northwestern (ESPN): I think this will be closer than many think, but still hard to see how Northwestern comes through here.
• Richmond @ Maryland (ESPNU): Maryland.
• Norfolk State @ Rutgers (ESPNEWS): Rutgers.
• South Dakota State @ Kansas (FSN): Kan–er, wait. Going with South Dakota State here.
• Louisiana-Monroe @ Georgia (SEC): I’m trying to give better than one-word responses for games between two FBS teams, but, well, even for games like this hard to see any other outcome than the obvious.
• Tennessee-Martin @ Mississippi (SEC): Ole Miss.
• Colgate @ Navy (CBSS): Navy.
• Illinois State @ Iowa (BTN): Iowa.

12:30: Wofford @ Clemson (ACC): Clemson.

2:00: Portland State @ Washington State (Pac12): Wazzou.

3:30:

• Louisville vs. Auburn (@Atlanta, GA; CBS): I think this game is probably more intriguing on paper than otherwise, but if there’s any point in the season when you want to attempt to stop the Malzahn Death Machine, it’s in Week 1.
• Virginia @ California-Los Angeles (FOX): UVA should offer slightly more resistance than a punching bag. Slightly.
• Brigham Young @ Nebraska (ABC): This game may wind up being the most interesting in this time slot. Nebraska will debut Bill Riley, yet I think I’ve missed the previews of the transition to the new coach. Do the Cornhuskers still have the talent advantage to prevail over the Stormin’ Mormons? I’m thinking they do.
• Pennsylvania State @ Temple (ESPN): The last time Temple beat Penn State, the attack on Pearl Harbor had not yet happened. Thanks to the magic of ties, the Owls have not-lost more recently, in 1950. Other than that, this series has been mostly pain. It does not look to change.
• Texas-El Paso @ Arkansas (ESPNU): “So… you’re saying there’s a chance?”
• Sam Houston State @ Texas Tech (FSN): Texas Tech.
• Florida Atlantic @ Tulsa (CBSS): These teams were both terrible last year and there’s not much reason to think it’ll be different this year. But, hey, it’s football, and it’s on TV! Also rolling with Tulsa.

4:00:

• Southern Illinois @ Indiana (ESPNEWS): Indiana.
• Bowling Green @ Tennessee (@Nashville, TN; SEC): It took me forever to figure out if this was a Tennessee home game or not, more in the de jure sense (i.e., how ticket sales are split and other contractual stuff), and not in the de facto sense, which it most definitely is. Vols should roll in front of a partisan crowd.
• Southeast Missouri @ Missouri (SEC): Mizzou.

5:00: Grambling @ California (Pac12): Cal.

7:00:

• Arizona State vs. Texas A&M (@Houston, TX; ESPN): I still remain bummed that “A&M” does not actually stand for anything. This one could go either way, depending mostly on if A&M’s secondary has gotten any less flammable in the off-season. I’m betting it has.
• Louisiana-Lafayette @ Kentucky (ESPNU): I think Kentucky can win this one? Probably?

7:30:

• Texas @ Notre Dame (NBC): It felt like several times last season that the Longhorns were just this close to figuring it out. Well, Week 1 will likely do them no favors try to get a handle on this season early. I like the Domers here.
• Georgia Southern @ West Virginia (FSN): I think the Mountaineers are going to win, but man, strangers things have happened at night in Morgantown.
• New Mexico State @ Florida (SEC): Florida will win, but boy howdy I suspect many Gator fans will be watching with bated breath that there will be some sort sign, any sign, that this team has an offense.
• McNeese State @ Louisiana State (SEC): LSU.
• Nevada-Las Vegas @ Northern Illinois (CBSS): Again, the chances of MACtion this early do not seem strong.

8:00:

• Alabama vs. Wisconsin (@Arlington, TX; ABC): Look, Alabama is going to win. That out of the way, that doesn’t make the matchup any less intriguing. Of course, this is kind of offense that Nick Saban’s defenses have been the best at stopping over the years, so it doesn’t seem like it’ll be the best preparation for the SEC foes that have given him the most trouble. On the flip side, Wisconsin executes their bruising style better than almost anyone else, which means we’re going to see a game of strength-versus-strength. Alabama’s questions at quarterback and the secondary are also potential areas of concern, but I don’t think Wisconsin is the team that will be able to expose them well enough.
• Texas State @ Florida State (ESPNEWS): Remember, when you have as much talent as Florida State does, it’s not rebuilding, it’s reloading. I personally think the predictions of their demise may be a bit premature, but it won’t matter in this game anyway.
• Eastern Washington @ Oregon (Pac12): Oregon.

10:00:  Mississippi State @ Southern Mississippi (FS1): A rare trip to Hattiesburg for either of the (relatively) blue-chip programs in Mississippi, I’m not sure that USM has quite recovered from the Dark Years to go toe-to-toe with SEC foes again, but it’s a sure bet the crowd will be trying to turn back the clock.

11:00: Arkansas State @ Southern California (Pac12): Even if I were on the West Coast right now I probably wouldn’t stay up to watch this one.

Sunday
3:00: Purdue @ Marshall (FS1): Marshall, just ’cause.

3:30: South Carolina State vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff (@Orlando, FL; ESPN): There’s not much else on on Sunday afternoon, and it’s interesting to see the FCS get into the neutral-site game. And, again, your alternative is watching Purdue.

Monday
8:00: Ohio State @ Virginia Tech (ESPN): A year ago, the ESPN write-up for VPI’s victory raised questions about Urban’s direction and whether VPI was a darkhorse national title contender. Whoops. At any rate, don’t expect a repeat this time around. Wacky stuff can happen in Blacksburgh at night, but I don’t expect lightning to strike two years in a row.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Friday
8:00: Chattanooga @ New Hampshire (Division I Football Championship Subdivision Quarterfinal; ESPN2): I like to do these games, because, hey, playoff football on TV, but I don’t know enough about the teams in question to really even give you a good breakdown, much less make picks. So I’ll let you know that the Mocs (that is, UT-Chattanooga) are 10-3 on the year and are a primarily run-oriented team, ranking 24th in the FCS in rushing. They have the 21st best scoring offense and 11th best scoring defense. The Wildcats are much more of a passing attack, ranking 13th in the FCS, but they’ll be going against one of the pass defenses in the nation. Should be a good one.

Saturday
Noon: Coastal Carolina @ North Dakota State (Division I Football Championship Subdivision Quarterfinal; ESPN): The Bison (I think you can figure out which one is which) are of course semi-famous at this point for basically being the 11th member of the Big 12, having beaten Iowa State this year after beating Kansas State last year. They did suffer a lost to Northen Iowa, but they still boast one of the best defenses in the country and are playing at home. The Chanticleers boast a pretty balanced offense, but their defense is pretty average, which may get them into trouble.

3:00: Army vs. Navy (@Baltimore, MD; CBS): One of these days, I’ll get to make this post and Army will actually have a chance. But again, it’s hard to fathom just how they’ll be able to win here. Army is 4-7, so if one result had gone their way they could be playing for a bowl game. The tempting thing would be to say “oh, they shouldn’t have lost to Yale”. And that’s true, because while the win wouldn’t have counted for them (they also played FCS Fordham) the loss still does. This isn’t exactly a powerhouse edition of Navy, though, and both these teams lost to Western Kentucky over the course of the season. But again, based on everything else, I just can’t pick the USMA here.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

• Michigan @ Ohio State (ABC): It’s hard to see Michigan really doing anything to win this game. Their offense is simply too bad, and Ohio State is firing on all cylinders right now.
• South Carolina @ Clemson (ESPN): This pick is basically conditional on Deshaun Watson’s status. If he plays, and preferably, starts, then I think Clemson can snap their losing streak. Otherwise, the Gamecocks should prevail.
• Kentucky @ Louisville (ESPN2): Louisville’s had a good run so far this season. Up in Lexington, the good times were rolling, including two SEC wins and a narrow overtime loss to Florida, up until they got dismantled 41-3 by LSU back in mid-October. They’ve lost five straight since then, and none of them where close. Louisville will probably make it six.
• West Virginia @ Iowa State (FS1): Really the only surprising result for the Fightin’ Holgos in their current three game losing streak was the semi-bizarre loss to Texas. Other than that, they gave TCU and K-State way more than either wanted. They should get off the schnide against Iowa State.
• Illinois @ Northwestern (ESPNU): In a battle for bowl eligibility, there can only be one winner. And that winner will probably not be Illinois.
• Cincinnati @ Temple (ESPNEWS): Temple’s surprised me before, but it’s hard to see how they stack up against Cincy.
• North Texas @ Texas-San Antonio (FSN): Absolutely no clue. I was going to go North Texas but F+ says UTSA has a 76% chance of winning, so…
• Rice @ Louisiana Tech (CBSS): This is the vastly more interesting C-USA West fight than the one above, as the winner gets the right to face Marshall. That winner seems much more likely to be LaTech.
• Georgia Tech @ Georgia (SEC): To Hell With Georgia.
• Purdue @ Indiana (BTN): With two in-state teams with identical 3-8 records and 5+ game losing streaks, this is basically a tossup to me. Purdue, I guess?

12:30:

• North Carolina State @ North Carolina (ACC): UNC’s offense figures to just be too much for NC State.
• Syracuse @ Boston College (ACC/RSN): I think BC is a pretty solid team, and they figure to handle the ‘Cuse pretty easily.

1:00: Utah @ Colorado (Pac12): The Pac-12’s newest members face off, but as I’ve mentioned before, their trajectories since joining the conference are vastly different. This Colorado team, despite being 0-8, isn’t as awful as it’s been, but they’re still pretty bad. The Utes should win easily.

3:30:

• Notre Dame @ Southern California (FOX): Notre Dame has been exposed a bit in their current three-game losing streak. While Southern Cal isn’t great or anything, they do have the talent to compete and I don’t think Notre Dame is good enough at this point to punish them for their lack of depth. I have the Trojans as a slight favorite.
• Mississippi State @ Mississippi (CBS): Speaking of collapses, what happened to Ole Miss last weekend? Well, for starters, they managed to turn the ball over six times, which is a pretty good way to ensure that you’ll lose 30-0. Miss State still only has the one blemish on their record, while the Rebels are playing only for pride now with three losses. This Egg Bowl doesn’t look as appetizing as did two weeks ago, that’s for sure. At any rate, I have the Bulldogs in this one.
• Michigan State @ Pennsylvania State (ABC/ESPN2): One team not suffering a post-big-loss hangover is Michigan State. Since losing to Ohio State, they’ve pounded Maryland and Rutgers into a fine dust. They figure to do the same against Penn State.
• Baylor vs. Texas Tech (@Arlington, TX; ABC/ESPN2): I’d say it’s getting weird at Texas Tech vis-a-vis the situation with their former defensive coordinator, but weird stuff happens there a lot, so let’s say it’s getting downright ugly. Baylor should win easily.
• Florida @ Florida State (ESPN): It’s tempting to say that Florida will get up for this rivalry game the same way they did against Georgia, but let’s face it: that one game is the only time all year Florida has displayed any sort of offensive competence. (Well, and against Eastern Kentucky last week, but that doesn’t count.) Florida’s defense is good enough to keep it close, but FSU will probably keep doing what they’ve been doing.
• Rutgers @ Maryland (ESPNU): Maryland, probably.
• San Jose State @ San Diego State (CBSS): I don’t have any good reason to pick San Jose State here, so I won’t. I do bet that Boise wishes any of the teams on this side of the MWC table were better going into next week’s title game, though.
• Minnesota @ Wisconsin (BTN): It’s hard to see how Minnesota is going to be able to stand up to Wisconsin’s brutal rushing attack.

4:00:

• Kansas @ Kansas State (FS1): It’s hard to see how Kansas will put up a fight against K-State at all.
• Connecticut @ Memphis (ESPNEWS): Given that they’re favored to lose to Memphis, that Fiesta Bowl must seem like a distant memory to Husky fans.
• Tennessee @ Vanderbilt (SEC): I continue to lack an explanation for how awful Vandy is this year, so I’ll just stick to picking against them.

4:30: Brigham Young @ California (Pac12): I’ve been calling for Cal to win this one in the bowl predictions, mostly because that makes things slightly easier. In reality, this one projects to be pretty close. I’ll stick my guns and lean toward Cal.

7:00:

• Pittsburgh @ Miami (ESPN2): Dear Miami: what the hell happened against Virginia last weekend? Obviously you’re still favorites and still my pick in this one, but seriously.
• Wake Forest @ Duke (ESPNU): At least what happened to Duke last week is somewhat explainable, and trust me, I’m quite happy it happened. Duke’s been sliding a bit, but a game against Wake Forest is a decent way to right the ship, as it were.

7:45: Auburn @ Alabama (ESPN): Barring another crazy special teams play, as hilarious as it was, it’s difficult to see Auburn getting a win here. Auburn’s defense just isn’t good enough to provide the resistance to Alabama’s offense that they need to have a chance.

8:00: Oregon @ Oregon State (ABC): Weird things can always happen in this Civil War, but believe me that doesn’t really project to be the case this year.

10:15: Utah State @ Boise State (ESPN2): Boise has improved as the season’s gone on. Utah State has been putting on a pretty brave show for most the season in light of what happened to their all-everything quaterback, but the dream figures to end on the blue turf.

10:30:

• Washington @ Washington State (FS1): It’s been a rough second year for Mike Leach out in Spokane, and UDub doesn’t figure to make it any less so.
• Nevada @ Nevada-Las Vegas (ESPNU): It’s not often you can say a 6-5 team is obviously better than another, but when your opponent is 2-10, this is one of those times. Nevada.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Quick note, though: there several teams playing FCS opponents this week. I will list those games, but they will have no or very short summaries.

Noon:

• Minnesota @ Nebraska (ESPN): I don’t think the Gophers have anyone prone to rushing for 400 yards, so the Cornhuskers should be safe in this one.
• Pennsylvania State @ Illinois (ESPN2): I suspect this will be Tim “Eight Wins” Beckman’s penultimate game as head coach of the Illini.
• Kansas @ Oklahoma (FS1): Good on you for winning last week, Kansas. This one is likely to be a bloodbath.
• Northwestern @ Purdue (EPSNU): I’m not going to lie, this weekend’s slate of games is pretty brutal. I have Northwestern in this one, but not by a lot.
• Southern Methodist @ Central Florida (ESPNEWS): I actually watched the end of SMU’s game against Tulsa last weekend, because it was on TV and SMU had a wire-to-wire lead going into the last minute of the fourth quarter. They then proceeded to lose. I suspect they will lose again.
• Texas-San Antonio @ Western Kentucky (FSN): Western Kentucky all the way in this one.
• Fordham @ Army (CBSS)
• Eastern Kentucky @ Florida (SEC)
• Charleston Southern @ Georgia (SEC)
• Rutgers @ Michigan State (BTN): Sparty took down the Terps 37-15 last weekend, now the other Big Ten newbie is probably about to get tthe same treatment.
• Indiana @ Ohio State (BTN): Does Indiana have another surprise in it? Probably not.
• South Alabama @ South Carolina (SEC/FSN): South Carolina.

12:30:

• Virginia Tech @ Wake Forest (ACC): First, hats off to Virginia Tech and North Carolina. While both were picked to finish ahead of us in the ACC, they did their parts by chipping in and giving Duke their second and third conference losses, and allowing us to advance to Charlotte. Thanks! Anyway, Wake is still awful, but the Hokies are so offensively inept that they’ll probably make it closer than it should be.
• Yale @ Harvard (NBCSN)

1:00: Washington State @ Arizona State (Pac12): While I’d love a crazy upset here, I’m not banking on it.

3:30:

• Louisville @ Notre Dame (NBC): They don’t really have manuals for how to recover from losing to Northwestern in overtime. Louisville will probably not provide any sort of closure, but I think the Domers will escape with a win and then get wrecked by USC next weekend.
• Mississippi @ Arkansas (CBS): Well, Arkansas finally pulled off their upset last week. I’d think it’s likely that things will be back to normal in this one.
• Boston College @ Florida State (ABC/ESPN2): FSU is a nineteen point favorite, so you definitely want to take BC to cover here. Otherwise, I imagine FSU will do its usual thing, i.e., trail for a substantial portion of the game and then wake up and win.
• Wisconsin @ Iowa (ABC/ESPN2): I have a feeling it may be Iowa’s turn to have their rush defense statistics get obliterated.
• Arizona @ Utah (ESPN): The numbers are slightly in favor of Utah, and while I like the Utes plenty, I just like the Wildcats a little better.
• Syracuse @ Pittsburgh (ESPNU): Pitt’s running back has been in awesome in their past three games. Problem? They’ve lost all of them. That said, Syracuse is the easiest game in this stretch and should give the Panthers a ray of hope for bowl eligibility going into Miami next weekend.
• Texas Tech @ Iowa State (FSN): I’d say the wheels are coming off for Texas Tech, but at least they didn’t lose to Kansas. I’ll stick with the Raiders.
• Georgia State @ Clemson (ACC/RSN): Clemson’s offense is terrible without Deshaun Watson, but they won’t need him here.
• Maryland @ Michigan (BTN): Maryland is thoroughly mediocre enough that Michigan can probably get a win here, but I’m not confident about it.

4:00:

• Stanford @ California (FS1): This one might be worth watching just because it’s a match up of total opposites. On one hand, a team that can’t stop anyone to save their lives. On the other, a team that can’t score. Which will prevail? Can Cal gut out a close win, or are they capable of shredding the Cardinal like Oregon did and making it a moot point? I’m going with the Bears in a slight upset.
• South Florida @ Memphis (ESPNEWS): I’m having trouble adjusting to this universe where Memphis is a 19-point favorite over anyone, but here we are. Already at 7-3, I think they’ll get to 9.
• Western Carolina @ Alabama (SEC)

4:30: Colorado @ Oregon (Pac12): Very quietly since the loss to Arizona, Oregon has looked like, well, Oregon again. This trend should continue against the Buffs’ awful defense.

7:00:

• Miami @ Virginia (ESPN2): As long as they’re not too deflated by allowing FSU to come back last weekend, this should be an easy win for the ‘Canes.
• Samford @ Auburn (ESPNU)

7:30:

• Oklahoma State @ Baylor (FOX): This one probably looked better at the beginning of the year than it does now. The Bears should win in a romp.
• Missouri @ Tennessee (ESPN): I think it says a lot about the year South Carolina is having that both these teams beat them. It’s not really a safe pick, per se, but I’m still taking Mizzou.
• Vanderbilt @ Mississippi State (SEC): Still trying to figure out what happened to Vandy, because the same thing seems to be happening at Stanford (though at least they still play pretty good defense). Clanga in a romp.

8:00:

• Southern California @ California-Los Angeles (ABC): Like all three of USC’s loses, I suspect in this one their lack of depth will come home too roost and UCLA will be able to eke out a win the end.
• Cincinnati @ Connecticut (CBSS): They’re very thankful that basketball season has started over in Storrs.

10:15: Boise State @ Wyoming (ESPN2): A win here will ensure that Boise continues to confuse what Group of Five team will get into the big-money bowls, so I’m sure that’s what’ll happen. But also tune-in because hopefully Wyoming will be wearing some horrendous combination of brown and mustard yellow.

10:30:

• Fresno State @ Nevada (ESPNU): Nevada just looks like a better all-around team than Fresno does. This will probably end the Bulldogs’ shot at a bowl.
• Oregon State @ Washington (Pac12): UDub is still searching for that elusive seventh win (which they need for bowl eligibility since they’re playing a 13-game schedule). The odds look good they’ll find it here.