Category Archives: college football

Bowl Predictions 2014: Week 5

Stanford’s loss to Southern Cal really mixed tings up. Let’s examine how. As usual, the full predictions are here.
BCS

  • Alabama and Florida State remain in their respective drivers’ seats. I, for one, am really looking forward to Duke losing by 80 to FSU in the ACC Championship Game.
  • With Stanford’s loss, Oregon is back in the driver’s seat for the Pac-12 title. This also really hurts the Pac-12’s chances of getting two teams in the BCS. Essentially, the last at-large spot came down to my 1-loss Baylor or Oregon. The best chance for the Pac-12 to get two teams in the BCS is probably for Baylor to win out and go to the Fiesta Bowl, as I don’t think Oklahoma State would get a BCS at-large bid over Stanford.
  • Non-AQ Watch: UCF is 18th in this week’s poll. If they make it to the top 16, then NIU or Fresno would need to finish 12th or higher to make it in with the big boys. This would also be a viable path for Stanford to get a BCS bid.

The rest

  • Stanford not being in the BCS also shook up things below them. I sent them to the Alamo Bowl, but if USC wins out to get to 10-wins, they could well end up there, or the loser of the Pac-12 title game if Oregon wins.
  • What to do with Duke? I think there’s a good chance they could lose one of their last two games, but the predictions instead reflect them getting demolished by FSU. I just can’t see how the Chick-fil-a Bowl would take them, so I put Miami there. ACC rules dictate the title game loser can’t fall past the Sun Bowl, but I sort of reluctantly put them in the Russell Athletic Bowl.
  • Rivalry revival of the week: Texas versus Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl. This has a much better chance of happening if the Big 12 sends two teams to the BCS, otherwise either Oklahoma State or Baylor goes here. That said, if the Cotton Bowl can make this happen, I am pretty certain they will.
  • Georgia Tech watch: I still have GT in the Music City Bowl. Slot-wise, they could go to the Belk Bowl, but that game has a long-standing policy of taking North Carolina teams. I figure a 6-6 UNC gets taken over a 7-5 Georgia Tech. I don’t think we fall past the Music City because I doubt any of the other options are as appealing (Boston College, Maryland, or Pittsburgh).
  • I read the news today, oh boy: I’ve started doing research on what beat writers think about where their teams will go, but there’s not a whole lot out there yet. Though I was right on a couple of things I could find (Colorado State going to New Mexico and UNLV going to Hawaii).

This Weekend in College Football: Week 12

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Ohio State @ Illinois (ESPN): I’m sure the Buckeyes will be able to figure out something against the nation’s 105th ranked scoring defense.
  • Indiana @ Wisconsin (ESPN2): I’m less sure about Indiana’s ability to put something together against the nation’s 6th ranked scoring defense, though.
  • Iowa State @ Oklahoma (FS1): Oklahoma figures to be out for blood after last week.
  • Cincinnati @ Rutgers (ESPNEWS): Cincy has generally be a much more consistent team so far this year; they should be able to get a win.
  • Troy @ Mississippi (ESPNU): Troy already lost 62-7 to Mississippi State this year, so…
  • West Virginia @ Kansas (FSN): West Virginia has been extremely inconsistent this season, but it’s hard to envision how bad they would need to be to lose to Kansas.
  • Purdue @ Pennsylvania State (BTN): Penn State would be bowl eligible after this if they were eligible to go a bowl.
  • Kentucky @ Vanderbilt (SEC): Speaking of bowl eligibility, the Commodores are 5-4 and close with Kentucky, Tennessee, and Wake Forest. I have to say I like their chances of going 8-4.

12:30:

  • North Carolina @ Pittsburgh (ACC): Both these teams have lost to every competent opponent they’ve played this year, making this game a pretty even match. That said, Pitt did knock off Notre Dame last week and Carolina is riding a 3-game win streak. I’m giving a slight edge to Pitt, though.
  • Maryland @ Virginia Tech (ACC): Good Logan Thomas finally reappeared last week in last week’s easy win over Miami. However, thanks to Bad Logan Thomas’s loss to Duke, the Hokies don’t control their own destiny in the division.
  • North Carolina State @ Boston College (ACC/FSN): NC State is 0-6 in ACC play, and I don’t see that improving this week.

2:00: Washington State @ Arizona (Pac12): Wazzou is better this year than last, but they’re still not quite there yet.

3:30:

  • Georgia @ Auburn (CBS): I’d say the tables are almost completely flipped for these two teams from where they were at the start of the season. Considering their injury situation, I just don’t see how UGA will be able to keep up with the Tigers.
  • Michigan State @ Nebraska (ABC/ESPN2): The risk for a team like Michigan State is always that one week, the defense just isn’t quite up to snuff and the offense is still as incompetent as ever. But that said, Nebraska is a 7-2 team that most people would probably describe as “struggling”, what with being a few plays away from 5-4 and all. I’ll stick with Sparty here.
  • Syracuse @ Florida State (ABC/ESPN2): Syracuse is… not good. Not good at all.
  • Miami @ Duke (ESPNU): On paper, this one shouldn’t be close. Miami is a team that can definitely shoot itself in the foot, but that’s really the only way the Blue Devils can win this game.
  • South Alabama @ Navy (CBSS): Navy isn’t awesome this year, but they don’t need to be against these guys.
  • Texas Christian @ Kansas State (FSN): TCU barely eked out a win over Iowa State last weekend, which does not bode well for their chances against the Wildcats.
  • Michigan @ Northwestern (BTN): Northwestern’s awful year doesn’t appear to be getting any better, but if they have a shot, it’s against this moribund Michigan squad.

4:00: Utah @ Oregon (FS1): This is sure to be yet another resounding defeat for the transitive property as it applies to college football.

5:30: California @ Colorado (Pac12): Going with Colorado, because why not?

7:00:

  • Baylor vs. Texas Tech (@Arlington, TX; FOX): I figured Texas Tech might lose 4 of their last 5, but well, I didn’t really see them losing to Kansas State. Whoops. Things don’t look to be getting much better against Baylor.
  • Florida @ South Carolina (ESPN2): Florida is just so inept offensive that it is impossible to pick them to win this game.
  • Houston @ Louisville (ESPNU): Louisville’s best shot at the AAC crown looked to be Houston beating UCF last weekend, but that didn’t happen. The Cardinals may be out for revenge.
  • Louisiana Tech @ Rice (CBSS): Going with Rice here. They’re better, but it still feels weird.

7:45: Alabama @ Mississippi State (ESPN): There is almost no way I could purposely pick anyone to beat Alabama right now.

8:00: Stanford @ Southern California (ABC): DACOACHO GONNA GO OUT COACHA DA FOOTBAW ANNA LEADA THA TROWJANS TOA VICTORIE. Okay, probably not. Stanford is pretty good, folks.

9:30: Oregon State @ Arizona State (Pac12): This is an intriguing matchup of the Pac-12’s second tier, and, well, I’ve been calling this for Arizona State for weeks in the bowl predictions, so I’m going to stick to my guns.

10:15: Wyoming @ Boise State (ESPN2): Boise should be able to handle this.

10:30:

  • San Diego State @ Hawaii (CBSS): The retro uniforms will be cool, but it’s hard to see the re-christened Rainbow Warriors having much of a chance here.
  • San Jose State @ Nevada (ESPNU): It’s been pretty bad for Nevada this year. Hard to see it getting much better against SJSU.

Bowl Predictions 2013: Week 4

They’re here, as usual. You may want to just go ahead and bookmark that, as I usually update it before writing the post. Anyway, the main happenings here are in the BCS, so let’s get to it.

BCS
Florida State assumes sole control of its own destiny for the slot behind Alabama. This means that the Sugar and Orange bowls get the first shot at replacements.

Let me lay the whole thing out for you. In addition to Alabama and Florida State, the following teams automatically qualify: Ohio State (as Big Ten champion, goes to the Rose Bowl), Stanford (as Pac-12 champion, goes to the Rose Bowl), Baylor (as Big 12 champion, goes to Fiesta Bowl), Central Florida (as AAC champion, earns BCS bid), Fresno State (as Mountain West champion ranked in the top 16 and higher than UCF). This means there are effectively three BCS at-large slots available. The candidates, according to my projections, are:

  • a 1-loss Clemson
  • a 2-loss Auburn
  • a 2-loss Missouri (with the 2nd loss being in the SEC title game to Alabama)
  • a 1-loss Oregon
  • a 2-loss Oklahoma State (with the 2nd loss being to one of Texas, Baylor, or Oklahoma)

Remember, the selection order is Sugar, Orange, and then Orange again, followed by the Sugar again, and then the Fiesta. Those last two slots will almost certainly go to UCF and Fresno State in some order – the Orange took Northern Illinois last year and almost certain wants a marquee matchup this time around. The most appealing candidate for the Sugar is probably a 10-2 Auburn. This basically means the Orange can matchup whoever it wants. Right now I have Clemson and Oregon. Oregon hasn’t been that far east for a bowl game since the 1960 Liberty Bowl (back when that game was in Philadelphia), and a matchup against Clemson would be a good recipe for a breakneck, fast-paced game (hopefully).

Misc
Some other observations from this week’s predictions.

  • There will not be a shortage of teams this year. If you’re wondering why I have some mid-major teams ahead of major conference teams for at-large spots, it’s because usually those games have agreements in place.
  • The two major conference teams I’m having trouble placing are West Virginia and Utah.
  • With realignment, I have to think matching up old rivals is a priority for the management of any second or third-rate bowl game. Hence the Backyard Brawl being transported to Shreveport.
  • I have Georgia Tech in the Music City because don’t think we’ll go to the Russell Athletic Bowl if we win out, we will not go back to El Paso this year, and the Belk will probably take Duke because that’s how they roll.
  • I try to avoid repeats if I can help it, but I’m sure the Ol’ Ball Coach can find some golf courses around Tampa he hasn’t played yet.

This Week in College Football: Week 12

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Tuesday
7:30: Buffalo @ Toledo (ESPNU): [Editor’s note: I meant to upload this before Tuesday’s games. Whoops.] Buffalo finds themselves as one of the MAC frontrunners after defeating Ohio last week. They get a plenty game Toledo, though. I’ll take the Rockets due to their defense, home field, and for maximum MAC standings chaos.

Wednesday
8:00:

  • Ball State @ Northern Illinois (ESPN2): The top two teams of the MAC West square off in a contest that will likely decide the division. Expect points to be scored in this game. Lots of points. Expect slightly more to be scored by Northern Illinois.
  • Miami @ Kent State (ESPNU): This game is the complete opposite of the other game, featuring the two bottom two teams from the MAC East. Kent State actually has two wins, so they’re the favorites against the Miamians from Ohio.

Thursday
7:30:

  • Georgia Tech @ Clemson (ESPN): This is always a tough one. Ever since I’ve been in school, this game seems to always be close or a blowout in Clemson’s favor. Of course, past results shouldn’t be influencing the present that much. So thinking about the present, well, it doesn’t look good for Tech.
    This is a game where we will have to play almost mistake-free football to win. We will not be able to turn the ball over 3 times and win (well, unless they do the same). Their offense is every bit as potent as ours (if not more). Their defense is a little worse, but then again, they got blown out by FSU which probably affects things a little bit, and either way it’s not much. Clemson is a very good football team. With the game on the road and at night, history aside, we will need all the help we can get. Hopefully we can avoid hurting ourselves.
  • Marshall @ Tulsa (FS1): In some quarters, it’s Tulsa that’s known as one of the most disappointing teams of 2013. Ranked in the low-100’s in both scoring offense and defense, it’s very difficult to see how they will be able to keep pace with the Thundering Herd.

Friday
9:00: Washington @ California-Los Angeles (ESPN2): U-Dub is enjoying what I would call a perfectly average season. They have beaten all the teams they are supposed to beat, and lost to all the teams they were supposed to lose to. Other than a win over Nebraska, UCLA hasn’t been much better, at least on paper. I would give the Huskies a very real chance in this game, and in fact, I’m calling the upset here.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 11

Already this week I struck out on both of Thursday’s marquee games. So just keep in mind the below disclaimer.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Florida State @ Wake Forest (ABC): With a clear path to the national title game, can the Seminoles not trip up against a foe that… well, they’ve tripped up against before? I’m thinking no.
  • Kansas State @ Texas Tech (ABC): TTU was humbled a bit against Oklahoma State last week, but I doubt that K-State will be as effective against them.
  • Auburn @ Tennessee (ESPN): This game was probably a tossup going into the season, but now, well, it seems like an easy Auburn victory.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Minnesota (ESPN2): It feels really weird, but… I’m going with Minnesota in this? I’m so unsure that I put a question mark there.
  • Missouri @ Kentucky (ESPNU): Mizzou continues their march to Atlanta.
  • Texas Christian @ Iowa State (FSN): It’s been a disappointing season for TCU, mainly due to their extremely lackluster offense. But if TCU is lackluster, than Iowa State hasn’t even been acquainted with the very concept for “luster” at any point this season.
  • Western Kentucky @ Army (CBSS): Western Kentucky already beat Navy this year, and Army is much, much worse.
  • Iowa @ Purdue (BTN): There aren’t very many teams Iowa could reasonably expect to outscore entirely with their offense. Purdue, with the second worst scoring offense in the FBS, is one of them.
  • Vanderbilt @ Florida (SEC/FSN): Is Florida’s offense so inept and wracked by injuries that one could actually pick Vanderbilt as having a shot? The Gator defense is still legit, which means that one could be ugly and low scoring. Which is exactly what the Gators will need to win. I suspect they probably will.
  • Arkansas @ Mississippi (SEC): Arkansas is a disaster this season. Maybe John L. wasn’t that bad after all?

12:30: Virginia @ North Carolina (ACC): UNC has been lost on offense for most of this season, but by way of analogy UVA set off without having ever consulted a map in the first place. I like the Tar Heels here.

3:00: Southern California @ California (FOX): The Bears should probably start looking ahead to Colorado.

3:30:

  • Mississippi State @ Texas Agricultural and Mechanical (CBS): Miss State’s offense isn’t quite competent enough to take advantage of TAMU’s awful defense, so the Aggies should be okay here.
  • Nebraska @ Michigan (ABC): Well, one of these teams actually beat Minnesota. That team was not Nebraska.
  • Brigham Young @ Wisconsin (ESPN): BYU is a pretty good team, and they should make the Badgers sweat, but ultimately the Stormin’ Mormons will probably come up short.
  • Hawaii @ Navy (CBSS): Navy.
  • Illinois @ Indiana (BTN): I feel a bit silly for having Illinois make a bowl game a couple weeks ago, but I don’t think it was entirely unreasonable at the time. It probably is now, though. But it is reasonable to have Indiana winning, like, ever? Sure, why not.
  • Syracuse @ Maryland (ACC/FSN): Neither of these teams is good or anything, but Syracuse is awful.

4:00:

  • Kansas @ Oklahoma State (FS1): Oklahoma State.
  • North Carolina State @ Duke (ESPNU): I almost flippantly did the “team name with no description” thing here, but then I remembered that this is Duke we’re talking about it. But, well, the Blue Devils really are the better team at this point.
  • Arizona State @ Utah (Pac12): Arizona State is a pretty good team, while Utah has mostly wilted in Pac-12 play (except for that increasingly inexplicable win over Stanford).

7:00:

  • Texas @ West Virginia (FOX): Texas has managed to remain relevant, and they should here. Then again, strange things can happen in Morgantown at night.
  • Virginia Tech @ Miami (ESPN): Provided they aren’t completely demoralized by getting blown away by FSU and losing their star running back, Miami still has a certain advantage over Virginia Tech: they have an offense. Of course, that presupposes Good Logan Thomas remains locked in a storage closet somewhere. That said, I’m still going with Miami.
  • Houston @ Central Florida (ESPN2): In my bowl predictions, I have consistently predicted UCF losing this game. Don’t let me down, Cougars.
  • Southern Mississippi @ Louisiana Tech (CBSS): Louisiana Tech.

8:00:

  • Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh (ABC): So it turns out that Notre Dame probably isn’t really good or anything, but they should be sufficiently decent enough to handle Pitt.
  • Louisiana State @ Alabama (CBS): I know everyone has their hopes for this game, but… statistically Alabama is the superior team. Like, not by a ton, but it’s pretty clear-cut. Perhaps the closest comparison for a team LSU has faced this season is Florida, but only because of their defense. They toughed that one out 17-6, but as we know Florida’s offense is super inept. Now imagine a team that has a better defense than Florida, and oh yeah, a freaking idea of what they’re doing on offense, and you have Alabama. In other words, this Crimson Tide team, as loathe as I am to say it, is really good.
  • Utah State @ Nevada-Las Vegas (ESPNU): Utah State.
  • Colorado @ Washington (Pac12): Washington.

10:00: California-Los Angeles @ Arizona (ESPN): Arizona’s been quietly putting together a good season. Sure, they OOC schedule was a joke and they’ve pretty much only beaten the dregs of the Pac-12 (and Utah), but still, 6-2 is pretty good. But if they lose this, they’re not in good shape for the Pac-12. And, well, they’re probably going to lose.

10:15: Fresno State @ Wyoming (ESPN2): The most compelling thing here will probably be how ugly Wyoming’s uniforms are on this evening. And as I’ve said in the past, I mean that in an entirely good way, as making ugly uniforms was always my objective in the Create-A-School feature of the NCAA Football games.

10:30: San Diego State @ San Jose State (CBSS): And here’s your Mountain West nightcap. Two mediocre offense, but two awful defenses, should make for some occasionally fun viewing in this Aztech vs. Spartan battle. I like the Greeks here.