Category Archives: college football

This Weekend in College Football: Week 13

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Michigan State @ Northwestern (ESPN): Northwestern has had an awful time of it this season, and it doesn’t look to suddenly be getting any better with Sparty’s defense to contend with.
  • Duke @ Wake Forest (ESPN2): There often hasn’t been a lot riding on this game, has there? It’s hard to figure that Duke would lose here, no matter how much I’d like them to .
  • Oklahoma @ Kansas State (FS1): Even though they’re, shall we say, offensively challenged these days the Sooners still pack enough punch to beat K-State.
  • Cincinnati @ Houston (ESPNEWS): Tobby Tuberville does nothing but win (against really bad teams, that is). Houston came up just short against the AAC’s front runners in their past two games, so they have more than a good shot against the Bearcats.
  • Virginia @ Miami (ESPNU): When Miami lost to Duke last weekend, I wasn’t happy or sad. I was angry. Mainly, I was angry that we pretty much went out and beat Duke like they’re, well, Duke back in September, yet Miami and Virginia Tech manage to have the worst games of their seasons against the Blue Devils. Absolutely ridiculous. At any rate, Miami is still good enough to be able to easily beat Virginia.
  • Michigan @ Iowa (BTN): You could watch this game, but I don’t really know why. I guess I’m going with Michigan.
  • Mississippi State @ Arkansas (SEC): Miss State should be able to earn that tantalizing fifth win here, putting it all on the line for the Egg Bowl next weekend.

12:30:

  • Pittsburgh @ Syracuse (ACC): The ACC’s newbies face off! However, the ‘Cuse seems to be a much worse team at this point.
  • East Carolina @ North Carolina State (ACC): I’ve had NC State losing this game in the bowl predictions and such, but I’m not really sure how. ECU isn’t great or anything, but NCSU is kind of bad. I’m sticking with the Wolfpack, but this feels like an upset is a brewin’.

1:30: Alabama Agricultural and Mechanical @ Georgia Tech (espn3.com): Last week, Clemson played their most complete game of the season against GT. The Tigers won every phase of the game except for the “Robert Godhigh” phase. But, nonetheless, GT must march on. This team is pretty aggressively mediocre: we’ve lost to everyone better than us and beat everyone worse than us. Anyway, this game. Alabama A&M is 4-7 this year with a 4-5 record in SWAC play. They actually have not played any other FBS opponents this season, so it’s hard to compare exactly, but usually the level of play in the SWAC is not great. The key to this game are the same as they are to any opponent like this: don’t let them get into it. Hopefully we do a much better job of executing on the plan than we did last Thursday.

    3:30:

    • Texas Agricultural and Mechanical @ Louisiana State (CBS): I’ve been leaning toward TAMU on this one, but it is tough. You have TAMU’s excellent offense against LSU’s pretty good defense, and then LSU’s okay offense against TAMU’s awful defense. It’s a matter of which one screws up first. Given that, still leaning TAMU.
    • Brigham Young @ Notre Dame (NBC): I think BYU is a pretty legitimate team and can score the “upset” against Notre Dame.
    • Oregon @ Arizona (ABC/ESPN2): Thanks to USC last weekend, Oregon is back in the driver’s seat in the Pac 12 North, and this came shouldn’t cause them to have to give it up again.
    • Indiana @ Ohio State (ABC/ESPN2): Ohio State needs all the help they can get, and it’s likely even a blowout here will help that much.
    • Wisconsin @ Minnesota (ESPN): I suspect Minnesota’s four game winning streak and good feelings will face a pretty stark reality check against the Badgers this weekend and Sparty next weekend.
    • Idaho @ Florida State (ESPNU): FSU.
    • Colorado State @ Utah State (CBSS): Utah State’s only losses are still to BYU, Utah, Southern Cal, and Boise State. Those are all good teams. Colorado State, not so much.
    • Utah @ Washington State (Pac12): Wazzou can make a bowl if they win this game, but I actually don’t think they will. Utah is pretty solid and I’m not sure Wazzou is quite there yet. I am dreading that pick, though.
    • Boston College @ Maryland (ACC/FSN): BC is 6-4 mostly from beating the Marylands of the world. I expect this trend to continue.
    • Nebraska @ Pennsylvania State (BTN): What is Nebraska at this point? I have no clue. I do like their chances to beat Penn State, though.

    4:00:

    • California @ Stanford (FS1): The Big Game doesn’t feel quite so big when one of the teams is very, very bad. Stanford should roll.
    • New Mexico @ Fresno State (ESPNEWS): Fresno.

    7:00:

    • Arizona State @ California-Los Angeles (FOX): Until USC announced their intentions by beating Stanford last weekend, this looked like the battle in the Pac-12 South. For weeks in the bowl predictions I had been calling this game for UCLA, but I switched last week and I’m going to stick with the Sun Devils.
    • Vanderbilt @ Tennessee (ESPN2): This is one hard to pick, as Vandy is the better team but they always seem to have trouble with the Volunteers. I’m sticking with them anyway.
    • Kentucky @ Georgia (ESPNU): I think UGA’s chances here.
    • Tulsa @ Louisiana Tech (CBSS): When CBS Sports picked this game, I’m guessing they were thinking that Tulsa might be a little better than 2-8. Both of these offenses rank in the 100’s, and Tulsa’s defense is down there too, so I’m going with LaTech.

    7:45: Missouri @ Mississippi (ESPN): Mizzou continues their march toward a SEC East title with a win here. I think they’ll get it.

    8:00:

    • Baylor @ Oklahoma State (ABC): Your Saturday forecast for Stillwater, OK: highs in the low 40’s with game time temperature expected to be around freezing. Will that be enough to slow down Baylor? I’ve been expecting the Bears to take at least one loss in their last five games, and this is the last chance. Can Oklahoma State do it? At this point, if they can’t, I doubt anyone can. But given the conditions and what feels like inevitability, I’m going with the Cowboys.
    • Kansas @ Iowa State (FS1): I’m picking Kansas to win a game? This feels like madness.

    9:30: Southern California @ Colorado (Pac12): USC. (Can I take a second to continue to praise Rece Davis and the fact that he also uses the Internet’s jokes about Ed Orgeron on air? Also can I just say that I support DaCoachO being USC’s head coach because even though it will be a disaster it will be hilarious, well, at least if you’re not a USC fan?)

    10:30:

    • Washington @ Oregon State (ESPN2): I think this is actually an interesting game, though UDub has a slight edge on paper. So I’m going with the Huskies, but this should be a good nightcap.
    • Boise State @ San Diego State (CBSS): This game could be okay, but if Boise gets going early (and they’ve gotten going to the tune of 90 points the last two weeks), then it will be an even stiffer test for the Aztecs.

    Bowl Predictions 2014: Week 5

    Stanford’s loss to Southern Cal really mixed tings up. Let’s examine how. As usual, the full predictions are here.
    BCS

    • Alabama and Florida State remain in their respective drivers’ seats. I, for one, am really looking forward to Duke losing by 80 to FSU in the ACC Championship Game.
    • With Stanford’s loss, Oregon is back in the driver’s seat for the Pac-12 title. This also really hurts the Pac-12’s chances of getting two teams in the BCS. Essentially, the last at-large spot came down to my 1-loss Baylor or Oregon. The best chance for the Pac-12 to get two teams in the BCS is probably for Baylor to win out and go to the Fiesta Bowl, as I don’t think Oklahoma State would get a BCS at-large bid over Stanford.
    • Non-AQ Watch: UCF is 18th in this week’s poll. If they make it to the top 16, then NIU or Fresno would need to finish 12th or higher to make it in with the big boys. This would also be a viable path for Stanford to get a BCS bid.

    The rest

    • Stanford not being in the BCS also shook up things below them. I sent them to the Alamo Bowl, but if USC wins out to get to 10-wins, they could well end up there, or the loser of the Pac-12 title game if Oregon wins.
    • What to do with Duke? I think there’s a good chance they could lose one of their last two games, but the predictions instead reflect them getting demolished by FSU. I just can’t see how the Chick-fil-a Bowl would take them, so I put Miami there. ACC rules dictate the title game loser can’t fall past the Sun Bowl, but I sort of reluctantly put them in the Russell Athletic Bowl.
    • Rivalry revival of the week: Texas versus Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl. This has a much better chance of happening if the Big 12 sends two teams to the BCS, otherwise either Oklahoma State or Baylor goes here. That said, if the Cotton Bowl can make this happen, I am pretty certain they will.
    • Georgia Tech watch: I still have GT in the Music City Bowl. Slot-wise, they could go to the Belk Bowl, but that game has a long-standing policy of taking North Carolina teams. I figure a 6-6 UNC gets taken over a 7-5 Georgia Tech. I don’t think we fall past the Music City because I doubt any of the other options are as appealing (Boston College, Maryland, or Pittsburgh).
    • I read the news today, oh boy: I’ve started doing research on what beat writers think about where their teams will go, but there’s not a whole lot out there yet. Though I was right on a couple of things I could find (Colorado State going to New Mexico and UNLV going to Hawaii).

    This Weekend in College Football: Week 12

    As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

    Noon:

    • Ohio State @ Illinois (ESPN): I’m sure the Buckeyes will be able to figure out something against the nation’s 105th ranked scoring defense.
    • Indiana @ Wisconsin (ESPN2): I’m less sure about Indiana’s ability to put something together against the nation’s 6th ranked scoring defense, though.
    • Iowa State @ Oklahoma (FS1): Oklahoma figures to be out for blood after last week.
    • Cincinnati @ Rutgers (ESPNEWS): Cincy has generally be a much more consistent team so far this year; they should be able to get a win.
    • Troy @ Mississippi (ESPNU): Troy already lost 62-7 to Mississippi State this year, so…
    • West Virginia @ Kansas (FSN): West Virginia has been extremely inconsistent this season, but it’s hard to envision how bad they would need to be to lose to Kansas.
    • Purdue @ Pennsylvania State (BTN): Penn State would be bowl eligible after this if they were eligible to go a bowl.
    • Kentucky @ Vanderbilt (SEC): Speaking of bowl eligibility, the Commodores are 5-4 and close with Kentucky, Tennessee, and Wake Forest. I have to say I like their chances of going 8-4.

    12:30:

    • North Carolina @ Pittsburgh (ACC): Both these teams have lost to every competent opponent they’ve played this year, making this game a pretty even match. That said, Pitt did knock off Notre Dame last week and Carolina is riding a 3-game win streak. I’m giving a slight edge to Pitt, though.
    • Maryland @ Virginia Tech (ACC): Good Logan Thomas finally reappeared last week in last week’s easy win over Miami. However, thanks to Bad Logan Thomas’s loss to Duke, the Hokies don’t control their own destiny in the division.
    • North Carolina State @ Boston College (ACC/FSN): NC State is 0-6 in ACC play, and I don’t see that improving this week.

    2:00: Washington State @ Arizona (Pac12): Wazzou is better this year than last, but they’re still not quite there yet.

    3:30:

    • Georgia @ Auburn (CBS): I’d say the tables are almost completely flipped for these two teams from where they were at the start of the season. Considering their injury situation, I just don’t see how UGA will be able to keep up with the Tigers.
    • Michigan State @ Nebraska (ABC/ESPN2): The risk for a team like Michigan State is always that one week, the defense just isn’t quite up to snuff and the offense is still as incompetent as ever. But that said, Nebraska is a 7-2 team that most people would probably describe as “struggling”, what with being a few plays away from 5-4 and all. I’ll stick with Sparty here.
    • Syracuse @ Florida State (ABC/ESPN2): Syracuse is… not good. Not good at all.
    • Miami @ Duke (ESPNU): On paper, this one shouldn’t be close. Miami is a team that can definitely shoot itself in the foot, but that’s really the only way the Blue Devils can win this game.
    • South Alabama @ Navy (CBSS): Navy isn’t awesome this year, but they don’t need to be against these guys.
    • Texas Christian @ Kansas State (FSN): TCU barely eked out a win over Iowa State last weekend, which does not bode well for their chances against the Wildcats.
    • Michigan @ Northwestern (BTN): Northwestern’s awful year doesn’t appear to be getting any better, but if they have a shot, it’s against this moribund Michigan squad.

    4:00: Utah @ Oregon (FS1): This is sure to be yet another resounding defeat for the transitive property as it applies to college football.

    5:30: California @ Colorado (Pac12): Going with Colorado, because why not?

    7:00:

    • Baylor vs. Texas Tech (@Arlington, TX; FOX): I figured Texas Tech might lose 4 of their last 5, but well, I didn’t really see them losing to Kansas State. Whoops. Things don’t look to be getting much better against Baylor.
    • Florida @ South Carolina (ESPN2): Florida is just so inept offensive that it is impossible to pick them to win this game.
    • Houston @ Louisville (ESPNU): Louisville’s best shot at the AAC crown looked to be Houston beating UCF last weekend, but that didn’t happen. The Cardinals may be out for revenge.
    • Louisiana Tech @ Rice (CBSS): Going with Rice here. They’re better, but it still feels weird.

    7:45: Alabama @ Mississippi State (ESPN): There is almost no way I could purposely pick anyone to beat Alabama right now.

    8:00: Stanford @ Southern California (ABC): DACOACHO GONNA GO OUT COACHA DA FOOTBAW ANNA LEADA THA TROWJANS TOA VICTORIE. Okay, probably not. Stanford is pretty good, folks.

    9:30: Oregon State @ Arizona State (Pac12): This is an intriguing matchup of the Pac-12’s second tier, and, well, I’ve been calling this for Arizona State for weeks in the bowl predictions, so I’m going to stick to my guns.

    10:15: Wyoming @ Boise State (ESPN2): Boise should be able to handle this.

    10:30:

    • San Diego State @ Hawaii (CBSS): The retro uniforms will be cool, but it’s hard to see the re-christened Rainbow Warriors having much of a chance here.
    • San Jose State @ Nevada (ESPNU): It’s been pretty bad for Nevada this year. Hard to see it getting much better against SJSU.

    Bowl Predictions 2013: Week 4

    They’re here, as usual. You may want to just go ahead and bookmark that, as I usually update it before writing the post. Anyway, the main happenings here are in the BCS, so let’s get to it.

    BCS
    Florida State assumes sole control of its own destiny for the slot behind Alabama. This means that the Sugar and Orange bowls get the first shot at replacements.

    Let me lay the whole thing out for you. In addition to Alabama and Florida State, the following teams automatically qualify: Ohio State (as Big Ten champion, goes to the Rose Bowl), Stanford (as Pac-12 champion, goes to the Rose Bowl), Baylor (as Big 12 champion, goes to Fiesta Bowl), Central Florida (as AAC champion, earns BCS bid), Fresno State (as Mountain West champion ranked in the top 16 and higher than UCF). This means there are effectively three BCS at-large slots available. The candidates, according to my projections, are:

    • a 1-loss Clemson
    • a 2-loss Auburn
    • a 2-loss Missouri (with the 2nd loss being in the SEC title game to Alabama)
    • a 1-loss Oregon
    • a 2-loss Oklahoma State (with the 2nd loss being to one of Texas, Baylor, or Oklahoma)

    Remember, the selection order is Sugar, Orange, and then Orange again, followed by the Sugar again, and then the Fiesta. Those last two slots will almost certainly go to UCF and Fresno State in some order – the Orange took Northern Illinois last year and almost certain wants a marquee matchup this time around. The most appealing candidate for the Sugar is probably a 10-2 Auburn. This basically means the Orange can matchup whoever it wants. Right now I have Clemson and Oregon. Oregon hasn’t been that far east for a bowl game since the 1960 Liberty Bowl (back when that game was in Philadelphia), and a matchup against Clemson would be a good recipe for a breakneck, fast-paced game (hopefully).

    Misc
    Some other observations from this week’s predictions.

    • There will not be a shortage of teams this year. If you’re wondering why I have some mid-major teams ahead of major conference teams for at-large spots, it’s because usually those games have agreements in place.
    • The two major conference teams I’m having trouble placing are West Virginia and Utah.
    • With realignment, I have to think matching up old rivals is a priority for the management of any second or third-rate bowl game. Hence the Backyard Brawl being transported to Shreveport.
    • I have Georgia Tech in the Music City because don’t think we’ll go to the Russell Athletic Bowl if we win out, we will not go back to El Paso this year, and the Belk will probably take Duke because that’s how they roll.
    • I try to avoid repeats if I can help it, but I’m sure the Ol’ Ball Coach can find some golf courses around Tampa he hasn’t played yet.

    This Week in College Football: Week 12

    As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

    Tuesday
    7:30: Buffalo @ Toledo (ESPNU): [Editor’s note: I meant to upload this before Tuesday’s games. Whoops.] Buffalo finds themselves as one of the MAC frontrunners after defeating Ohio last week. They get a plenty game Toledo, though. I’ll take the Rockets due to their defense, home field, and for maximum MAC standings chaos.

    Wednesday
    8:00:

    • Ball State @ Northern Illinois (ESPN2): The top two teams of the MAC West square off in a contest that will likely decide the division. Expect points to be scored in this game. Lots of points. Expect slightly more to be scored by Northern Illinois.
    • Miami @ Kent State (ESPNU): This game is the complete opposite of the other game, featuring the two bottom two teams from the MAC East. Kent State actually has two wins, so they’re the favorites against the Miamians from Ohio.

    Thursday
    7:30:

    • Georgia Tech @ Clemson (ESPN): This is always a tough one. Ever since I’ve been in school, this game seems to always be close or a blowout in Clemson’s favor. Of course, past results shouldn’t be influencing the present that much. So thinking about the present, well, it doesn’t look good for Tech.
      This is a game where we will have to play almost mistake-free football to win. We will not be able to turn the ball over 3 times and win (well, unless they do the same). Their offense is every bit as potent as ours (if not more). Their defense is a little worse, but then again, they got blown out by FSU which probably affects things a little bit, and either way it’s not much. Clemson is a very good football team. With the game on the road and at night, history aside, we will need all the help we can get. Hopefully we can avoid hurting ourselves.
    • Marshall @ Tulsa (FS1): In some quarters, it’s Tulsa that’s known as one of the most disappointing teams of 2013. Ranked in the low-100’s in both scoring offense and defense, it’s very difficult to see how they will be able to keep pace with the Thundering Herd.

    Friday
    9:00: Washington @ California-Los Angeles (ESPN2): U-Dub is enjoying what I would call a perfectly average season. They have beaten all the teams they are supposed to beat, and lost to all the teams they were supposed to lose to. Other than a win over Nebraska, UCLA hasn’t been much better, at least on paper. I would give the Huskies a very real chance in this game, and in fact, I’m calling the upset here.