Category Archives: college football

Rating the 2008 Non-Conference Slate, Part 1: ACC

Now that most of the dust seems to be settled for out-of-conference scheduling, let’s get this over with. First off, the ACC!

  1. Miami (2 legit, 1 DI-AA): Charleston Southern, @Florida, @Texas A&M, Central Florida. The Hurricanes meet the Gators for the first time since the 2004 Peach Bowl. They also go on the road to College Station. I realize that this is numerically inferior to UNC’s schedule, but I just cannot in good conscience put that schedule ahead of this one. Miami is, for starters, a better team than UNC still and is not being booked by other conferences as a patsy. Additionally, UF and TAMU are on the road, which is good for some bonus points. And both schools are probably better than UConn or Notre Dame.
  2. North Carolina (2.5, 1): McNeese State, @Rutgers, Connecticut, Notre Dame. Two Big East teams and Notre Dame add up to one of the toughest schedules in the ACC. I realize this is numerically ahead of Miami, but I just couldn’t pull the trigger on giving them the number one spot. I’m prepared to eat crow on this, though. Also, who expects UConn or Notre Dame to be any good? That said, they do get props for playing 3 BCS teams, even if two of them are from the Big East.
  3. Virginia (1.75, 1): Southern Cal, Richmond, @Connecticut, East Carolina. There are 4 teams with a 1.75 rating, but only one of them plays a single DI-AA team, so UVA gets the nod. Also, this USC is probably the single toughest opponent any ACC team will play this year. Unfortunately for the Cavs, though, they’d probably lose regardless of the difficulty of their schedule.
  4. Clemson (1.75, 2): N-Alabama, Citadel, South Carolina State, South Carolina. While Georgia Tech also plays 2 SEC teams, I’d say they average out to about the same strength. Mississippi State is probably worse than both Bama and South Carolina, but Georgia is probably better than both. Also, the Alabama game is going to be played in the Georgia Dome to open the season, so that should make for some good TV, if nothing else.
  5. Georgia Tech (1.75, 2): Jacksonville State, Mississippi State, Gardner-Webb, @Georgia. Thanks to Army pulling out of a home game for them, GT was forced to schedule Gardner-Webb. Still a tough schedule overall (well, relative to the ACC, anyway) with two SEC teams. I’m not sold on Miss State, but a lot of people seem to be very sold in UGA.
  6. Florida State (1.75, 2): Western Carolina, Tennessee-Chattanooga, N-Colorado, Florida. I’m not sold on the “neutrality” of Jacksonville, FL, but I put the N there anyway. If I’m not sold on Miss State, I’m definitely not sold on Colorado.
  7. North Carolina State (1.5, 1): @South Carolina, William & Mary, East Carolina, South Florida. The meat here is definitely with the Fightin’ Visors, but don’t count out the Pirates or Bulls.
  8. Wake Forest (1.25, 0): @Baylor, Mississippi, Navy, Vanderbilt. Not really that great of a schedule, but kudos for being the only ACC team to not play a DI-AA team this year (much less 2).
  9. Boston College (1.25, 1): @Kent State, Central Florida, Rhode Island, Notre Dame. I’m not sure if the Kent game is actually away or neutral, not that it really matters. BC lost pretty much all of their offense from last year so it remains to be seen how many of these teams they’ll actually be able to beat.
  10. Maryland (1, 1): Delaware, @Middle Tennessee State, California, Eastern Michigan. Cal is pretty much all you need to know about this schedule, the rest is cannon fodder. Regardless of how good Maryland is going to be this year (and they shouldn’t be terrible), they should be 3-1 at worst against this OOC schedule.
  11. Virginia Tech (1, 1.5): East Carolina, Furman, @Nebraska, Western Kentucky. The highlight here is obviously at Nebraska, not that it troubled USC much last year. In case you’re wondering about the “1.5” in the DI-AA column, Western Kentucky is a “transitional” D-I member. Next year they will be a full DI-A member in the Sun Belt.
  12. Duke (0.75, 1): James Madison, Northwestern, Navy, @Vanderbilt. Duke finally schedules down to their level. Northwestern probably wants revenge for last year, and frankly I can’t see any reason Duke will win any of these games except for maybe the one against JMU.

Anyway, that’s all I have for now. Next up: the Big East!

Paul Johnson Passes Out the Burnsauce

From CBS Sportsline:

When Georgia Tech’s leading returning receiver James Johnson said “… we’re going to hope that Coach does not do all that much running. We just hope he’s saying all that to trick people,” Johnson came out firing.

“He caught 30 balls (actually 25) and they went 7-6,” Johnson said. “If something wasn’t wrong, if what they were doing was so great, we wouldn’t be here. It’s not like we’re coming in here and dismantling this high-powered machine that was lighting everybody up.”

In other news, OOC Schedule previews are coming Real Soon Now. Rutgers and Kansas State have completed their swap of Fresno State, but Rutgers still had a vacancy in its schedule. While that’s likely to be a DI-AA team, I’m going to wait and see a couple more days.

Edit: Apparently James Johnson has left the team. Double burn. (More likely, though, it had to do with his injury issues.)

Rating the Non-Conference Slate 2008: Prologue

It’s almost that time again. I’d start, but the Big East and some other teams haven’t released their schedules yet so we can’t finish the rankings.

You may recall the series I did last year, where the rankings were almost completely arbitrary. This year, A5 and I went through and assigned each BCS team a ranking on a scale of 0.25-1, where 0.25 was the least desirable and 1 the most desirable. “Desirability”, of course, is still subjective, but generally our criteria were “would I look forward to playing this team?”, “how consistent has this team been in the past 5-6 years?”, and “how good was this team last year?” This means the rankings have a good mix of last year’s flashes in the pan (Mississippi State) and traditional powers that had bad years (Notre Dame).

Since we’ve already ranked all the teams, I can tell you which teams got 1’s and where each conference stands. So first, the teams: Boston College, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Nebraska, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Texas, West Virginia, Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Penn State, Notre Dame, Arizona State, California, Oregon, Southern Cal, Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, Florida, Georgia, and Tennessee.

The conferences ranked as such:

  1. SEC (0.854 average)
  2. Big 12 (0.75)
  3. ACC (0.729)
  4. Big Ten (0.727)
  5. Pac-10 (0.725)
  6. Big East (0.656)

Is there some bias here? A little. But the main thing hurting the Pac-10 is that the bottom of the Pac-10 is pretty terrible: Washington State, Washington, Stanford, and Arizona got 0.5 or less, and so with 10 teams this affects their average a lot.

Anyway, once we have complete schedules we’ll start the whole series. Until next time!

Bowl Games: Dessert

Well, since it seems Hawaii is completely outmatched by UGA, it’s time to get the last 5 games out o the way. As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

  • Oklahoma vs. West Virginia, Tostitos Fiesta Bowl (Jan. 2, 8:00, FOX): It’s hard to get a read on these teams as they head into this game. West Virginia certainly backed their way into the post-season, as the vaunted Slaton-White duo looked pretty flat. I like Oklahoma here not because of anything they do particularly well, but just because of how West Virginia looked against Pitt.
  • Virginia Tech vs. Kansas, FedEx Orange Bowl (Jan. 3, 8:00, FOX): I really don’t give KU much of a chance here. They lost to the only other decent opponent they’ve played all year and I think Virginia Tech is just as good, if not better, than Missouri.
  • Ball State vs. Rutgers, International Bowl (Jan. 5, 12:00, ESPN2): Lost in the shuffle of bowl season, there are so many bowls that they have to squeeze a couple in between the BCS games. At any rate, as long as Rutgers bothers to show up they should win easily.
  • Bowling Green vs. Tulsa, GMAC Bowl (Jan. 6, 8:00, ESPN): A few years ago, I might’ve liked BGSU here, but the C-USA runner-ups are almost certainly better.
  • Ohio State vs. Louisiana State, BCS National Championship Game (Jan. 7, 8:00, FOX): And here we go. Some observers may say that OSU should be favored here due to being number 1, but let’s face it – Ohio State is ranked first only because they had the good sense to lose 3-4 weeks before everyone else finished their season. I don’t like LSU because Florida won last year, I like LSU because they’re a good football team who are, in my mind, the cream of the two-loss crop.

Anyway, it’s been a crazy year kids. My next football related item will probably be my out-of-conference schedule round-up, which will hopefully be a lot less depressing than it was last year.